India-China Border conflict

[Jimih]

Source for this?

So you are not aware of mist_consecutive's set of skills?

 

[Hari Sud]

Chinese Power in Himalayas

Two things bother the Chinese …..1). India’s fast building road and Tunnel infrastructure which is reaching the border fast enough and has made them uncomfortable…… 2). India’s growing economy which is outpacing China and will catch up with China soon. That will allow, India to spend more on defence. With Chinese obligations elsewhere in the east in the China Sea (Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam etc), a modest 30% increase in Indian defence expenditure over 3 or 4 years will offset any Chinese advantage in Tibet or Sinkiang. Hence, the Chinese want to confront India now than later and stage a 1962 type knock out punch now than later. It is unlikely to happen and I give you reasons below.

1. There is huge, well equipped Indian presence in all contact points with the Chinese, eliminating any breakthrough.

2. Indian Airforce brought into action early in the battle is in much superior position to deliver a severe punch to the Chinese in Tibet/Sinkiang before Chinese reinforce from the east (4000km away).

3. India has countered Chinese rocket force with a huge and highly accurate buildup of Brahmos, Parlay missiles that any their misadventure will see their rocket force destroyed on the ground much more easily with an accurate fire.

Chinese know all the disadvantages they suffer from, moreover their aircrafts, their rockets and their ground troops are located at inferior locations hence they want to intimidate but not confront. The confrontation is not going to favour them hence they are unlikely to start one. Gone are the 1962 days.

With all this in mind that the Chinese are unlikely to indulge in any localized military affair of the type they tried to stage in the Fall of 2022 at the McMohan line. That does not stop them from staging similar incidents elsewhere.

Can India reverse stage similar incidents as to stun China ……. Yes, India can!……..

Remember the August 2020 capture of Kailash Heights by India which stunned the Chinese and brought them to the table with proposal to withdraw from Pangong Lake area. A similar capture could be staged and the huge Indian military buildup readied to counter any Chinese move. That will force Chinese into rethink. They value prestige more than anything. Hence they will back away without firing a shot…….. cheers

 

[Jimih]

Chinese Power in Himalayas

Two things bother the Chinese …..1). India’s fast building road and Tunnel infrastructure which is reaching the border fast enough and has made them uncomfortable…… 2). India’s growing economy which is outpacing China and will catch up with China soon. That will allow, India to spend more on defence. With Chinese obligations elsewhere in the east in the China Sea (Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam etc), a modest 30% increase in Indian defence expenditure over 3 or 4 years will offset any Chinese advantage in Tibet or Sinkiang. Hence, the Chinese want to confront India now than later and stage a 1962 type knock out punch now than later. It is unlikely to happen and I give you reasons below.

You are still talking about the Himalayas.

Here is where the real game is been played and why we should be concerned.

 

[Hari Sud]

You are still talking about the Himalayas.

Here is where the real game is been played and why we should be concerned.

You probably are partially right. No hostile incidents have ever taken place at sea but military situation is very tense in the Himalayas, hence greater focus is needed there.

Just to talk about Chinese naval challenge……. As the Indian Navy Chief has confirmed that there are never more than 3 to 6 Chinese ships in the Indian Ocean region. That is not a big threat. With narrow passage way of Straits of Malacca in close proximity of Indian strike force, Chinese are nothing but doomed. Hence Chinese are smart, they will never initiate anything stupid 4000km away in Indian Ocean region.

 

[jai jaganath]

You probably are partially right. No hostile incidents have ever taken place at sea but military situation is very tense in the Himalayas, hence greater focus is needed there.

Just to talk about Chinese naval challenge……. As the Indian Navy Chief has confirmed that there are never more than 3 to 6 Chinese ships in the Indian Ocean region. That is not a big threat. With narrow passage way of Straits of Malacca in close proximity of Indian strike force, Chinese are nothing but doomed. Hence Chinese are smart, they will never initiate anything stupid 4000km away in Indian Ocean region.

Today 3-6 tomorrow 10-15 then cbg

 

[nongaddarliberal]

You are still talking about the Himalayas.

Here is where the real game is been played and why we should be concerned.

Keep building batches of 3 or 4 ships, this is the numerical disadvantage we get. Submarines too, they should have just gone directly for AIP version of Scorpene for P75i as a direct follow on to p75. That way, the construction doesn't stop and skills get retained with no delay in delivery. If DRDO AIP isn't ready just go for the French one.

As far as advantages are concerned, India can bring air power to play in the Indian Ocean which the Chinese cannot. In addition to that, we have shore based missiles. All that remains is to place 2 squadrons of fighters with Brahmos in Andaman and Nicobar, along with a few p8's regularly rotating there. Not so simple for the Chinese to conduct combat with their ships this far off their coast and cut off from resupply. Even if they manage to bring 10-15 ships, how long will they survive in the IOR, with constant US and Indian sensors being able to pinpoint the the live location of these ships for targetting?

 

[Hari Sud]

Today 3-6 tomorrow 10-15 then cbg

10-15 cannot be supported in the Indian Ocean.

 

[jai jaganath]

Keep building batches of 3 or 4 ships, this is the numerical disadvantage we get. Submarines too, they should have just gone directly for AIP version of Scorpene for P75i as a direct follow on to p75. That way, the construction doesn't stop and skills get retained with no delay in delivery. If DRDO AIP isn't ready just go for the French one.

As far as advantages are concerned, India can bring air power to play in the Indian Ocean which the Chinese cannot. In addition to that, we have shore based missiles. All that remains is to place 2 squadrons of fighters with Brahmos in Andaman and Nicobar, along with a few p8's regularly rotating there. Not so simple for the Chinese to conduct combat with their ships this far off their coast and cut off from resupply. Even if they manage to bring 10-15 ships, how long will they survive in the IOR, with constant US and Indian sensors being able to pinpoint the the live location of these ships for targetting?

Wait until cbg gets deployed in IOR and IN running towards mod

 

[vidhwanshak]

10-15 cannot be supported in the Indian Ocean.

10 years back even these 3-4 were unthinkable.
People used to say that PLAN is a paper navy no modern boats etc. But now we have Chief Of Naval Staff who talks about the threat posed by the Chinese navy in the future.
Now, imagine 10 years from now, these 3-4 ships will become 13-14 and after that they will send the whole CBG.
If we don't "upgrade" our game, then we will only get surprises as usual.

 

[pankaj nema]

 

[Jimih]

DFI Members baaz nahi aane waale

 

[mist_consecutive]

I love it how he added "(Sources)" at the end to sound authentic.

Source for this?

Me, I looked at weekly Sentinel satellite images of Indo-China positions along LAC.

 

[Hari Sud]

Here I post an exhaustive analysis of India-China military capabilities.

Why China's Conflict With India Over Arunachal Pradesh And Ladakh May Require More Than Military Might

Unless China can accomplish its goals without a major military battle, it is highly improbable that Beijing will launch a limited operation ...

www.indiandefensenews.in

Here are the salient points which the author brings forward.

‘’Chinese with propaganda with its paid agents have projected themselves as superior force; which is not the case.

SWOT Analysis: PLA And The Indian Defence Forces

Strengths of The PLA

• A large and well-trained standing army with over 2 million personnel
• Advanced military technology, including stealth fighters, anti-ship missiles, and cyber capabilities
• Strong emphasis on joint operations and coordination between different branches of the military
• Significant investment in military modernisation and technological development

Weaknesses of The PLA

• Limited combat experience in recent years, as China has not engaged in a major military conflict since the 1970s
• Dependence on external suppliers for crucial military technologies, including aircraft engines and microchips
• Concerns about corruption and lack of transparency in defence procurement and decision-making
• Challenges in projecting power beyond China’s immediate neighbourhood due to logistical and diplomatic limitations

Opportunities for The PLA

• Increasing regional and global influence, driven by China’s economic growth and military modernisation
• Growing partnerships with countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, which could provide access to strategic resources and markets
• Potential for increased cooperation with Russia and other major powers in countering US dominance in the region
• Rapidly expanding space and cyber capabilities could provide new avenues for strategic advantage.

Threats To The PLA

• Growing concerns about China’s military assertiveness and territorial claims, which could lead to increased tensions and conflict with neighbouring countries
• Increasing competition with the United States and other major powers in the region could lead to a significant military confrontation
• Dependence on the Chinese Communist Party for military decision-making, which could limit the flexibility and effectiveness of the military
• Challenges in balancing military modernisation with economic growth and social stability, which could lead to internal tensions and unrest

Strengths of The Indian Defence Forces

• Professional and well-trained military personnel with a long history of combat experience
• Diverse and advanced military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and advanced fighter jets
• Strong emphasis on joint operations and coordination between different branches of the military
• Strategic location at the crossroads of the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia

Weaknesses of The Indian Defence Forces

• Dependence on external suppliers for key military technologies and equipment, including fighter jets and missile defence systems
• Limited resources and challenges in meeting the needs of a rapidly growing economy and population
• Tensions and conflicts with neighbouring countries, including Pakistan and China, could limit the military’s operational flexibility.
• Challenges in balancing military modernisation with social development and domestic needs

Opportunities For The Indian Defence Forces

• Growing partnerships with countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia provide new avenues for strategic cooperation and access to resources and markets.
• Increasing focus on defence innovation and technology development, including cyber and space capabilities
• Potential for increased cooperation with major powers such as the United States, Japan, and Australia in countering China’s influence in the region
• Strategic location at the crossroads of significant energy and trade routes, which could provide new opportunities for economic growth and strategic influence

Threats To The Indian Defence Forces

• Increasing competition with China and other major regional powers could lead to a significant military confrontation.
• Threats from non-state actors and terrorist organisations, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan and the broader Middle East
• Growing concerns about nuclear proliferation and regional stability, particularly in the context of tensions with Pakistan and other nuclear-armed states
• Tensions and conflicts with neighbouring countries, particularly concerning territorial disputes and cross-border terrorism

 

[Blademaster]

Wait until cbg gets deployed in IOR and IN running towards mod

How will it get there in the Indian Ocean? It has to get past through the USN and other navies before entangling with Indian Navy. Don't forget that Singapore is there and Singapore has a naval base sharing treaty with India (correct me if I'm wrong)

 

[jai jaganath]

How will it get there in the Indian Ocean? It has to get past through the USN and other navies before entangling with Indian Navy. Don't forget that Singapore is there and Singapore has a naval base sharing treating with India (correct me if I'm wrong)

Deployment during peacetime is not an issue if they don't breach our eez and if they research more on effective logistics and use nuclear propulsion atleast in AC and subs the its good but even nuke propulsion is not needed
Main point of Deployment is influence
In future when their fleet strength will increase where they can deploy their fleets through out the world beyond scs then IOR will first and then other oceans will be explored

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars

https://eurasiantimes.com/china-keen-to-recruit-gurkha-soldiers-into-pla-will-it-become/

 

[AnantS]

Ya'll Nibbiars

https://eurasiantimes.com/china-keen-to-recruit-gurkha-soldiers-into-pla-will-it-become/

oh they will achieve it. nepali gurkhas will go where money is... if china throws good money.. nepali gurkhas shall join in droves.

 

[Jimih]

oh they will achieve it. nepali gurkhas will go where money is... if china throws good money.. nepali gurkhas shall join in droves.

Gorkha units are present in British Army, French Army. It's natural for them.

 

[AnantS]

Gorkha units are present in British Army, French Army. It's natural for them.

Yes but it shall also give Chinese good entry point to look within IA. Recruit Gurkha, recruit by MSS for good money and other allurements. Make him get recruited into IA, now you have plant in IA. reverse can also take place.

What would be interesting is how china would be handling religious beliefs of gurkhas.

 

[Jimih]

Yes but it shall also give Chinese good entry point to look within IA. Recruit Gurkha, recruit by MSS for good money and other allurements. Make him get recruited into IA, now you have plant in IA. reverse can also take place.

Han Chinese can't fight with Brown Indians. Hence resorting to the idea of recruiting Gorkhas.