Will China Invade Taiwan?
If China invades Taiwan, which they have been threatening to do so for many years and more specifically in the past 10 months, then what will be the scenario for Taiwan?
1. Will the US permit Communist China to capture Taiwan and look the other way because they have a trillion dollar trade going between them hence not jeopardize that or,
2. US risk a fight, mostly a naval fight to keep the Communist at bay.
In scenario 1, the current political dispensation in Washington is anti-Russian. They preferably would keep the US Navy out of the fight and let the Taiwanese look after themselves. If the Taiwanese lose, it is not a big loss for the US. Their overexploited trade would continue to grow with added high-tech Taiwanese additions. After that the world would never trust US for any promises.
If scenario 2 unfolds, then the US Navy in Guam, Japan, Pearl and other places will run to save the small nation from a big bully. Although Chinese have prepared well for this scenario, still their main drawback is inferior, copied and reverse engineered Naval technology, which will fall easy prey to the American superior naval warfare expertise.
Following the first few reversals, the Chinese will end the invasion and return to the mainland... The war is over.
My question for Scenario one and two is that……. Will US apply those commercials, financials and assets sanctions on China. The Democrats who control Whitehouse and Congress are... Will they agree to impose sanctions and paralyze the Chinese economy? I guess not, because American dependence on Chinese-made consumer goods will play its role. If there is a naval engagement and American servicemen body bags return to US mainland then the mood could change.
We must wait and see what happens in Taiwan and how America reacts.
warfare?
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