Interesting bit is that all of China’s neighbours seem to think it is about them:
1) South Korea thinks Kim Jong un is in coma, hence the escalations.
2) Taiwan thinks they are the main target
3) India thinks we are the main target
CCP has kept everybody guessing, all at the same time.
We as a modest civilization tend to give more credit to our enemies where there are none due. Keeping everyone guessing is nowhere a smart move for Chineses, and if I frame this in a tad bit different way -
"
Multiple neighboring countries of China including India who has the largest standing military, as well as Japan with a highly-modern naval fleet are on high-war preparedness to tackle any Chinese belligerence".
This is exactly the situation of pre-WW2 Germany where its neighbors were afraid and developing a hostile attitude towards it because of its expansionist mentality.
The
best-case scenario they can achieve by creating this confusion is that smaller powerless countries like Nepal, Bhutan, Philippines, and bend down and become a client states with complete Chinese military control, and then slowly absorbed into China like Tibet, without giving a fight. Whereas bigger countries like India, Japan, and Australia decide to become a mute spectator fearing Chinese power.
But the
worst-case scenario is much, much devastating for the Chinese. If they get pulled into a fight (which is really, really easy now, just a trigger-press away, it's a miracle that Galwan didn't start a full-blown clash, Chinese should praise our dhoti-bureaucrats and our army with a leash around its neck).
Initially, they may have localized victories because they can overpower a small country/area with numbers. But as Asia gets tangled into war, other countries having beef with Chinese will jump on taking this opportunity, and we already see this happening as America, India, Japan are brewing up a military alliance, and soon will be joined by Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and other South-Asian countries.
And, what will happen if China loses because of a combined trade embargo + naval blockade + multiple front military assaults?
- Tibet gains independence, practically they lose control of the whole Himalaya
- Most probably the country will be divided into multiple parts like East/West Germany, including Xinjiang, and mainland China.
- Trade restrictions, installing of puppet govt. favoring west, limitation on the military. Chances of massive famines and man-made disasters due to the collapse of the central structure.
China will be completely isolated from the world, with no trade or military partners if they continue going into this madness of expansionism and making enemies.
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