India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

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Shashank Nayak

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There could be diplomatic ways, China can't act fast for PoK, not even for Gosthana. In the last 4 India-Pakistan wars China has refrained from jumping in, and 3 of them were clearly related to PoK. If China jumps into the war between India and Pakistan the 3rd World War might become realty.
Lets cut the third world war bogey.. Lets not act like express.co.uk, talking about WW3 at the drop of a hat.
China has direct stakes in Ladakh UT ( which includes Aksai Chin and Gilgit)
US will not fight China, even if China swallows up the whole of Ladakh. After all All of JK and Ladakh is disputed territory as per UN resolutions.. and India is not a treaty ally of the US. Yes, there will be sanctions on China, and US will supply us ammunition and military logistics support..
What I want to say is.. We make a move on occupying Gigit, only if we are ready to hold off China in a war..
 

Kumata

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SAAB knows India is in the market for cheap fleet-filler jets (because you can't keep burning Su-30, M2000I, and Rafales for CAPs). It's looking to compete with Tejas 1A. Guess which jet will win?


The Swedes have kickstarted their marketing.
Via Thai ambassador??

But yeah, they do realise the folly they did by selling AWACS to prkis and must be repenting to have lost almost 15 billion USD for few millions... Some body was asking why we did not bought SAAB instead of rafael in rafel thread...
 

A chauhan

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Lets cut the third world war bogey.. Lets not act like express.co.uk, talking about WW3 at the drop of a hat.
China has direct stakes in Ladakh UT ( which includes Aksai Chin and Gilgit)
US will not fight China, even if China swallows up the whole of Ladakh. After all All of JK and Ladakh is disputed territory as per UN resolutions.. and India is not a treaty ally of the US. Yes, there will be sanctions on China, and US will supply us ammunition and military logistics support..
What I want to say is.. We make a move on occupying Gigit, only if we are ready to hold off China in a war..
So what do you want ? Attack on Gosthana ? If yes, then you are asking to attack the same enemy whom you are scared in PoK.

...the Indian response has been better than during MMS tenure, but that is sadly not enough..
What response you expect from India ?
 

Shashank Nayak

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So what do you want ? Attack on Gosthana ? If yes, then you are asking to attack the same enemy whom you are scared in PoK.
Do you have comprehension issues? I said hold off China, not attack Aksai Chin. India should attack Gilgit only if we are confident about holding off against a Chinese attack along LAC, while Indian army fights Pakistan to conquer Gilgit.
 

A chauhan

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Do you have comprehension issues? I said hold off China, not attack Aksai Chin. India should attack Gilgit only if we are confident about holding off against a Chinese attack along LAC, while Indian army fights Pakistan to conquer Gilgit.
Ok mate, I have comprehension issues, please explain me what is "holding off" China ? What are the exact steps you want to be taken by the IA ? And if we have failed to hold off what should we do ?
 

Chandragupt Maurya

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Via Thai ambassador??

But yeah, they do realise the folly they did by selling AWACS to prkis and must be repenting to have lost almost 15 billion USD for few millions... Some body was asking why we did not bought SAAB instead of rafael in rafel thread...
Rafales are better than gripen but gripens are better than F16 Americans and French have also sold weapons to Pakistan
 

Shashank Nayak

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Ok mate, I have comprehension issues, please explain me what is "holding off" China ? What are the exact steps you want to be taken by the IA ? And if we have failed to hold off what should we do ?
Holding off China in Ladakh, would be to stop the PLA from conquering or cutting off sub sector North or making any major territorial gains in other sectors of the LAC..
What if we fail to hold off ? Well... we lose territory instead of gaining some..
 

MonaLazy

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PoK is easier than Gosthana.
On the contrary, if you are attacked by a group of dogs- go full-frontal attacking the biggest, most aggressive dog and the others will quickly lose the stomach for a fight.

Gosthana is difficult for sure- but in a historical context we need to see why it is so? Had we had better leadership since independence- the defence forces would have been fully indigenized- with world class weapons from Indian industry, we would have private sector entities on the scale of LM, Boeing, MBDA, Naval Group etc.

China is ahead of India today for sure- but this is a mess entirely of our own making. Before 1962 the world put India higher than China - we were more industrialized, a more modern nation. But that war sealed the pecking order in Asia for the next 50 years. Now is a good time to change things!

If we take Gosthana by fighting tooth and nail, we can march into GB and Muzzafarabad with no opposition. The Paki formations neatly standing in surrender in their respective parade grounds (figuratively speaking) without putting up half a decent fight!

Also, if you think Gosthana is difficult, think about how Israel fought off the Arabs against slim odds and won- by better machines and tactics. We have to fancy our chances against the Chinese - the upshot if we win is tremendous. There is lesser chance of the conflict going nuclear vis-avis fighting the mess of a nation to our west. Also compound China's problems with China Virus- how it has affected their global reputation, their brutal takeover of HK, aggressive maneuvering over Taiwan, behaviour in SCS in contravention of the international legal dictats, genocide of Uighurs & the military boot on the Tibetan neck.

I say there is no better time to attack China and take back Gosthana. As for dhoti shivering and we are not prepared and all that nonsense- why have we borne the shameful tag of the world's largest weapons importer for several years in a row. Was it for nothing? Was it for the puny Pak? Or was it for a decisive fight against China?

Think back and let me know when at any point in history recent or distant we had the world opinion rallied so strongly against China, when we had two American carriers arrayed against them, when the whole world wants to shift their factories out of China.

On top of everything by repeatedly encroaching in Doklam & Ladakh - China has proved it is the aggressor and given us the fig leaf of an excuse to start harassing them militarily- like we did with Pakis in 71. Let's be bolder Modiji and the economic slaps are fine and dandy but let's also go for hard brute military action- disrupt their supply lines etc. They have plenty of military toys with tech from the beg, borrow, steal model - they look the part but they are untested. Recently there was news that even their 4x4s in Ladakhs were not up to scratch.


There is no right time for war. There is no ideal time. You work on your capacities and try and outmatch the enemy. I cannot say for sure if we will win but it is worth a shot- we have more to gain than to lose. Esp in light of China's stubborn-ness and new claims on the border.



Do these actions look even the remotest bit friendly?

A fight is definitely coming a few years down the line if not now. But IMO, even if we lose today's fight it will have reset the rules for China to engage with India for next several decades. They will also lose a fair bit and will be forever wary of casual intrusions into our territory. The red lines will be redrawn.

There is also a chance we win. Think of that. We will be the talk of the world. Permanent seat in UNSC, may be eject China out. Solve Kashmir and sort Pakis for good. Be a Global leader- vishwa guru that so many patriots here dream of! The upside is tremendous!! Even a stalemate (which is the most likely scenario) will be seen as a defeat for China- they have raised the stakes so much & all the benefits of a win apply to this outcome as well. China will be a shrivelled version of its present pompous self. Peace in this part of the world. That is surely worth fighting for. Let's also not underestimate our forces.

The road to PoK is via CoK.
 
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cereal killer

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I still can't believe that people really think pok was in bjp's sight's.

You are telling me that bjp was getting ready to take on pok without thinking anything about china?

Looking at our response to the Chinese aggression and the emergency purchases it became very clear that there was no pok capture in planning.

There is no way and when I say no I mean "zero percent" chance that the army's planning towards china will be so bad if we're to fight against pakistan.

The most realistic chance bjp ever had for taking pok was during balakot and they slept on it everything after that was just pure speculation.
I agree taking over PoK takes years of planning building foreign support, raising right noises in UN & showing the world public perception is in favour of India. Nobody i As General Ata husnain said India has not even layed the groundwork for all this. Showing their temperatures lol as a Kid I used watch the temp of Gilgit on DD did that mattered? Hell no.
Military capability is another thing. Pakistan military is in reasonable number in GB & PoK. It is easier to occupy Pakistani Punjab than mountainous GB with numerous peaks & passes.
As of now GOI has only ch**ya kaata of public. PM modi has stopped saying anything about PoK & GB since 2016 on red fort. Kadi Ninda words are useless. Dude had said 3 years ago that we will look to change No first use stand. What happened to that?
BJP Govt. Is massive upgrade over that MMS congi govt. But I will never say best ever.
 

Sridhar_TN

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Lets cut the third world war bogey.. Lets not act like express.co.uk, talking about WW3 at the drop of a hat.
China has direct stakes in Ladakh UT ( which includes Aksai Chin and Gilgit)
US will not fight China, even if China swallows up the whole of Ladakh. After all All of JK and Ladakh is disputed territory as per UN resolutions.. and India is not a treaty ally of the US. Yes, there will be sanctions on China, and US will supply us ammunition and military logistics support..
What I want to say is.. We make a move on occupying Gigit, only if we are ready to hold off China in a war..
Here is the thing. China is not fully prepared to attack and occupy now as well. It needs another country to take part, that being Pakistan. If China really wanted to do some military action, it would have already done so by now. The only way to shore up and regain lost ground would be to build up supplies, and go for Aksai chin. To offensively split in he Kashmir region, and bifurcate Chinese access to POK. It’s a dangerous move, but one that has to be done at all costs. That not only ensures CPEC is cut down, but India regains Aksai chin in the future.
Is India ready to do this. Does it have enough supplies and firepower. Nobody in this forum knows for sure. Only someone from the DOD can answer this. Is there anyone from the DOD on this forum?
 

A chauhan

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Holding off China in Ladakh, would be to stop the PLA from conquering or cutting off sub sector North or making any major territorial gains in other sectors of the LAC..
What if we fail to hold off ? Well... we lose territory instead of gaining some..
That's what we are doing. I think we should trust our Armed forces that they will act on the right time and right direction. There is a tendency in Indians that if we win a fight we give all the credit to the Army, and if we lose we put all the blame on the govt.
 

vampyrbladez

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I always wonder and I would like you to answer sirji that how do people come out with such timelines.

It always surprises me when people come out with such timelines like I can never under how can you predict the future.

You say 2026 for an offensive war but how do you say this because India will coomplete some of its major acquisitions through this timeline?

But then I must ask you wouldn't china and pakistan also be upgrading their armed forces wouldn't china also be developing counter weapons and strategies wouldn't they both also be acquiring weapons to improve their offensive and defensive capabilities.

In such a case one can never truly predict what will happen a few years from now.

Thats why I have always said that India must try to be as ready as possible for any opportunity because their is no perfect time.

This forum is a prime example people here used to say war is not good idea when our economy was growing at a good rate the argument was that a war wil be harmful for growth rate.

Now when the growth rate has reduced they complain that we can't fight a war at such a time we must wait when our economy is in the clear.

No country in this world was blessed with a perfect time neither germany nor france nor US no country all these countries made the best of what they could.

The sooner we understand this the better.
A very immature and childish outlook you have.

War is not fought with sticks and stones.

You need a stable defence industrial base and competent technology centres.

Our boys are equipped with INSAS rifles and our R&D is done by OFB and ARDE.

Most of our under construction warships will begin to emerge around 2024.

The damage done to India from 2004 - 2014 when China underwent a 180* change in MIC and economic upheaval, is still hurting us. Essentially nothing was inducted or bought during that time.

During WW2 US was able to capitalise on their latent industrial strength to become the powerhouse it is postwar. We have nothing even close to that.

If the war started in June, 2020 we wouldn't even have the 5 Rafale that we do have right now to counter the 2 J20 China parked in Tibet.

Growth/manufacturing shift to India is ongoing. Last thing we want is for Vietnam or Taiwan to take it all.
 

A chauhan

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On the contrary, if you are attacked by a group of dogs- go full-frontal attacking the biggest, most aggressive dog and the others will quickly lose the stomach for a fight.

Gosthana is difficult for sure- but in a historical context we need to see why it is so? Had we had better leadership since independence- the defence forces would have been fully indigenized- with world class weapons from Indian industry, we would have private sector entities on the scale of LM, Boeing, MBDA, Naval Group etc.

China is ahead of India today for sure- but this is a mess entirely of our own making. Before 1962 the world put India higher than China - we were more industrialized, a more modern nation. But that war sealed the pecking order in Asia for the next 50 years. Now is a good time to change things!

If we take Gosthana by fighting tooth and nail, we can march into GB and Muzzafarabad with no opposition. The Paki formations neatly standing in surrender in their respective parade grounds (figuratively speaking) without putting up half a decent fight!

Also, if you think Gosthana is difficult, think about how Israel fought off the Arabs against slim odds and won- by better machines and tactics. We have to fancy our chances against the Chinese - the upshot if we win is tremendous. There is lesser chance of the conflict going nuclear vis-avis fighting the mess of a nation to our west. Also compound China's problems with China Virus- how it has affected their global reputation, their brutal takeover of HK, aggressive maneuvering over Taiwan, behaviour in SCS in contravention of the international legal dictats, genocide of Uighurs & the military boot on the Tibetan neck.

I say there is no better time to attack China and take back Gosthana. As for dhoti shivering and we are not prepared and all that nonsense- why have we borne the shameful tag of the world's largest weapons importer for several years in a row. Was it for nothing? Was it for the puny Pak? Or was it for a decisive fight against China?

Think back and let me know when at any point in history recent or distant we had the world opinion rallied so strongly against China, when we had two American carriers arrayed against them, when the whole world wants to shift their factories out of China.

On top of everything by repeatedly encroaching in Doklam & Ladakh - China has proved it is the aggressor and given us the fig leaf of an excuse to start harassing them militarily- like we did with Pakis in 71. Let's be bolder Modiji and the economic slaps are fine and dandy but let's also go for hard brute military action- disrupt their supply lines etc. They have plenty of military toys with tech from the beg, borrow, steal model - they look the part but they are untested. Recently there was news that even their 4x4s in Ladakhs were not up to scratch.


There is no right time for war. There is no ideal time. You work on your capacities and try and outmatch the enemy. I cannot say for sure if we will win but it is worth a shot- we have more to gain than to lose. Esp in light of China's stubborn-ness and new claims on the border.



Do these actions look even the remotest bit friendly?

A fight is definitely coming a few years down the line if not now. But IMO, even if we lose today's fight it will have reset the rules for China to engage with India for next several decades. They will also lose a fair bit and will be forever wary of casual intrusions into our territory. The red lines will be redrawn.

There is also a chance we win. Think of that. We will be the talk of the world. Permanent seat in UNSC, may be eject China out. Solve Kashmir and sort Pakis for good. Be a Global leader- vishwa guru that so many patriots here dream of! The upside is tremendous!! Even a stalemate (which is the most likely scenario) will be seen as a defeat for China- they have raised the stakes so much & all the benefits of a win apply to this outcome as well. China will be a shrivelled version of its present pompous self. Peace in this part of the world. That is surely worth fighting for. Let's also not underestimate our forces.

The road to PoK is via CoK.
I guess we have argued the same thing almost 100 times in this thread in circles. For some it's the perfect time to attack on CoL, for some the time never comes.

But if you consider that Air Force plays the major part in today's war, and it is undisputed that IAF is in the weakest state from the last 10 years. Su-30MKIs (our main fighter aircrafts) are having avionics compatibility issues. Squadron strength has fallen below "safe" threshold. Though IAF says it is ready for two-front war but do you think it says the same to the govt ? Public posturing and real preparations are 2 different things.

I am not saying that we should not do anything or waste another decade in preparations, but I believe we should at least wait for some additional Rafales to land in here. This won't take much longer. Chinese are not going any where.
 

A chauhan

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I agree taking over PoK takes years of planning building foreign support, raising right noises in UN & showing the world public perception is in favour of India. Nobody i As General Ata husnain said India has not even layed the groundwork for all this. Showing their temperatures lol as a Kid I used watch the temp of Gilgit on DD did that mattered? Hell no.
Military capability is another thing. Pakistan military is in reasonable number in GB & PoK. It is easier to occupy Pakistani Punjab than mountainous GB with numerous peaks & passes.
As of now GOI has only ch**ya kaata of public. PM modi has stopped saying anything about PoK & GB since 2016 on red fort. Kadi Ninda words are useless. Dude had said 3 years ago that we will look to change No first use stand. What happened to that?
BJP Govt. Is massive upgrade over that MMS congi govt. But I will never say best ever.
Where did you get this ? None important except China has objected Art. 370 removal, almost all the major powers have said it's India's internal matter. That's almost equal to legalizing India's rights over PoK and Gosthana as well.
 

Kumata

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fellas,

No time is good time for war ... it's always good time.... One need to be always on toes...

Thanks for saint anthony we have a mess which we need to work around.. I am wondering if he was compromise or being black mailed .........

Still, I am sure..I am sure we have enough war reserves available for a 2 front stupidity ... what we need is political Will... We always forget that we have a very capable Navy as well
 
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