India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[Indrajit]

Ya.. but the fair share of amount will go to tencent.... No one would sponsor an event out of charity.

This is an advertising move to engender familiarity . No one knows whether the risk is worth it. This is more money being thrown out in the hope that they will make up over the long term. Nobody is going to make any money now.

 

[Chandragupt Maurya]

The only chance of getting planes quickly would be with the Americans, that’s a given. As of now, the only loser’s contract would be us opting for more Rafales. We haven’t even got what we ordered for in 2015, we would be incredibly daft to order more of what we don’t have delivered. Yeah, we have far better chances of getting it in numbers from the Americans than we will with the French



I wish I or anyone else had a binary choice like that and could just grab some money and get the jets. The reason we don’t have any expenditure on such purchases is because we lack the money and more importantly, we need to get the most for what we spend. The Rafales would be a nightmare on that score.

We have already starved the navy and after this clash/incident with the Chinese , we will seriously have to concentrate on artillery and other purchases for the army. I’m afraid that more numbers of expensive jets will simply not get priority. We have a lot of catching up to do and the only way we are going to get more jets in the next few years will be if we get lucky and get a deal from the Americans.



There may not be financing, it’s certainly not a given and would depend on many factors but without them, we don’t really have a chance of buying any significant number of anything. You may consider trade surplus as not important but in the real world, we will have to buy more from the Americans. If not this, then something else.

As for Trade Surplus, there are plenty who will buy to make up for it. It’s coming from our money one way or the other, best to make it for something useful.



We only have Israeli options, we won’t get anything of significance from the Americans. The French had to go running to the Americans for bombs because they ran out of their own in Libya. Tells you something and btw, they have the most ridiculously priced stuff which is why even the airforce which behaves like we have all the money when they selected Rafales thought that those were too expensive. Imagine that. In the end we bought it as emergency purchases, after all , tax payers are the ones getting shafted.

We didn’t really get any Rafales ahead of schedule. A couple of months and 5 aircraft are not my idea of ahead of schedule for a contract signed in 2015.

Ordering more Tejas and 36 more rafales is the only way to add numbers if we go for any other aircraft it will take another 5 years to do the paperwork and finalise the deal it took 12 years since first MMRCA in 2008 to get the rafales in 2020, Thanks to Mr Modi he cancelled the MMRCA and went for government to government deal

 

[Sarjen]

The only chance of getting planes quickly would be with the Americans, that’s a given. As of now, the only loser’s contract would be us opting for more Rafales. We haven’t even got what we ordered for in 2015, we would be incredibly daft to order more of what we don’t have delivered. Yeah, we have far better chances of getting it in numbers from the Americans than we will with the French

How ?? Gov to Gov Sale ?? that's not going to happen, MOD has changed those policies in procuring Jets.
Do tell me how Rafale would be a loser's contract ?? Why because of price tag ?? what got delayed in 2015, i've no idea on it ??? So you would go get a Jet because they can deliver quickly ?????????????

I wish I or anyone else had a binary choice like that and could just grab some money and get the jets. The reason we don’t have any expenditure on such purchases is because we lack the money and more importantly, we need to get the most for what we spend. The Rafales would be a nightmare on that score.

We have already starved the navy and after this clash/incident with the Chinese , we will seriously have to concentrate on artillery and other purchases for the army. I’m afraid that more numbers of expensive jets will simply not get priority. We have a lot of catching up to do and the only way we are going to get more jets in the next few years will be if we get lucky and get a deal from the Americans.

Nope.. You get what you pay for with Rafale, If Rafale won't provide that then mod would've not ordered 36, they might have gone to F series with the American in G2G deal.(unlikely). both IAF and Army have their own allocated budget for procurement.

There may not be financing, it’s certainly not a given and would depend on many factors but without them, we don’t really have a chance of buying any significant number of anything. You may consider trade surplus as not important but in the real world, we will have to buy more from the Americans. If not this, then something else.

As for Trade Surplus, there are plenty who will buy to make up for it. It’s coming from our money one way or the other, best to make it for something useful.

See now you're giving more bargaining chips to the Americans.. They may demand anything that india not wish to go ahead with it.... Throwing additional 3-4 billion to increase the Rafale numbers to 72+ won't break India in anyway as people think. See the price of what we're paying now with the emergency purchases?? do you think it won't break our economy ?? what do you think????

We only have Israeli options, we won’t get anything of significance from the Americans. The French had to go running to the Americans for bombs because they ran out of their own in Libya. Tells you something and btw, they have the most ridiculously priced stuff which is why even the airforce which behaves like we have all the money when they selected Rafales thought that those were too expensive. Imagine that. In the end we bought it as emergency purchases, after all , tax payers are the ones getting shafted.

We didn’t really get any Rafales ahead of schedule. A couple of months and 5 aircraft are not my idea of ahead of schedule for a contract signed in 2015.

So why do you think American wont sell us Missile to integrate into Rafale if Dassault allows it to.. and Rafale package include one of the best A2A in the world.
You always can't worry about the costs when it comes to defense procurements. you want to complain about costs to benefit, may i ask you how the PAF's American made A2A missile were evaded by MKIs after ballakot ???? shows the weakness of American Missiles well right ?

its because F16s are mass produced for US and world market where Dassault had no orders till that time, and by the time we signed both Egypt and Qatar had already placed the order so first delivery had to go to them. now 10 are delivered 5 in service more will come end of this year

 

[Sarjen]

This is an advertising move to engender familiarity . No one knows whether the risk is worth it. This is more money being thrown out in the hope that they will make up over the long term. Nobody is going to make any money now.

So i dont know much about Business, i'm in cyber space... but according to my well known Business people, whoever sponsors these Kinda events make huge amount at the end of the event and that would also bring up their brand image further growth in Business. anyhow Tencent will benefit a large.

 

[Indrajit]

Ordering more Tejas and 36 more rafales is the only way to add numbers if we go for any other aircraft it will take another 5 years to do the paperwork and finalise the deal it took 12 years since first MMRCA in 2008 to get the rafales in 2020, Thanks to Mr Modi he cancelled the MMRCA and went for government to government deal

Modi went government to government to bypass the deal for a larger number since it wasn’t affordable. This way, keep the French happy and the budget not completely destroyed. The French were happy because on the original MMRCA contract, only 18 would have been built in France and Dassault really didn’t want to build in India, they were most reluctant saying that they will not give any guarantee for jets made in India. These are not ideal partners, very different from the Americans. Giving them another 36 aircraft order would be dumb.

More Tejas would be a good idea, I agree with you. A pity the IAFis not as enthused and in any case HAL is unable to deliver in quick time. That however should be something we stick with.

 

[Synergy]

@Sarjen if we throw another 3/4 billion, that won't give us 36 more Rafales. they offered another 36 @6 billion Euro (approx). so we will need $7.11 billion.

but I think 36 more Rafales will be a good choice alongwith 180/216 (atleast 114) used F16 (or F18).

 

[Bhurki]

120 6 Squadrons.

Weren't they supposed to be retired in a phased manner from 2019-2024? Or are all squadrons going to go out together?

 

[Haldilal]

Weren't they supposed to be retired in a phased manner from 2019-2024? Or are all squadrons going to go out together?

By end of the year till 2023. But conserding the current climate the retirement will be delayed.

 

[Sarjen]

@Sarjen if we throw another 3/4 billion, that won't give us 36 more Rafales. they offered another 36 @6 billion Euro (approx). so we will need $7.11 billion.

but I think 36 more Rafales will be a good choice alongwith 180/216 (atleast 114) used F16 (or F18).

What i was trying to say is to pay on the top of MRCA's budget... which would take 4-5 years given our experience. and with the cost over runs, inflation and precious time wasted + logistic, It's worth putting the money on Rafale.

 

[Bhurki]

By end of the year till 2023.

Is that when it starts retiring, so 2023-2028? Or end date for all to be retired?

 

[Haldilal]

Is that when it starts retiring, so 2023-2028? Or end date for all to be retired?

First squadron were to be retired by this year end and till the end of 2023 the entire squadrons would have been retired. But will definitely see a delay in the retirement of the entire fleet.

 

[Bhurki]

First squadron were to be retired by this year end and till the end of 2023 the entire squadrons would have been retired.

That means a further drop in total squadrons by 2023,
- 6 mig-21
+ 2 rafale
+ 1 mig 29 ( 21 bought now)
+ 1 tejas ( 2nd sqd IOC, since Mk1a will only start in 2024, 36 months from order at minimum)

 

[Haldilal]

That means a further drop in total squadrons by 2023,
- 6 mig-21
+ 2 rafale
+ 1 mig 29 ( 21 bought now)
+ 1 tejas ( 2nd sqd IOC, Mk1a will start in 2024, since 36 months from order at minimum)

Ya we will see a further deficit of 2 squadrons and after then by 2023 probably see a increase in squadrons per year.

 

[Bhurki]

Ya we will see a further deficit of 2 squadrons and after then by 2023 probably see a increase in squadrons per year.

Not really, jaguars will start retiring then, first the 3 non upgraded squadrons, then even the upgraded ones since they don't have enough engine power( engine replacement was cancelled)

No new engines for Jaguars, phase-out starts in 2023

Time and cost concerns stymie plan to give a power boost to 80 of the 116 jets now in service on the Air Force fleet

www.thehindu.com

 

[Haldilal]

Not really, jaguars will start retiring then, first the 3 non upgraded squadrons, then even the upgraded ones since they don't have enough engine power( engine replacement was cancelled)

We seriously need more LCA at all cost or else there goes our remaining air power. Even 36 additional rafales will not work. We need to be concerned about the numbers and not capabilities. Economy of scale more matters than capabilities of rafael on large scale. Rather spend 10 billion on 200 tejas than just four dozens rafales. For me number will always matter's than the capabilities. The airspace we guard is huge six time the airspace of France. And I am not talking about the french overseas deployment.

 

[Bhurki]

So at the very best, by 2028-
(Taking into account it takes atleast 4-5 years for even ordered jets to be delivered and further 2 years for tactic operationalization)

14 Su30
4 mig29
3 jaguar (skeptical about this, could be 2)
2 rafale (unless more ordered right now)
3 m2k
6 Lca ( could be 5, since 2028 is the delivery date of last airframes itself)

For a total of 30-32 squadrons.

I'm skeptical about any more orders since a lot of capital intensive projects have to be paid for like C295, drones, LCH, awacs, refuellers, not to forget the LCA itself.

 

[Indrajit]

How ?? Gov to Gov Sale ?? that's not going to happen, MOD has changed those policies in procuring Jets.

Rafale was ordered through a G2G contract, any additional order for more Rafales would also be by that route. It would be what we would do if we went American, just like all the other contracts with the Americans have been.

Do tell me how Rafale would be a loser's contract ?? Why because of price tag ?? what got delayed in 2015, i've no idea on it ??? So you would go get a Jet because they can deliver quickly ?????????????

A couple of reasons. A 36 aircraft order was given to bypass the original order which GoI considered prohibitively expensive. To keep the French placated, this number was ordered with a supposed offer by the French government to help in a few areas and an offer of veto on demand in the UNSC. Dassault got 18 more aircraft than what they were supposed to get to manufacture in France and the Dassault boss made it clear that for him the 36 order was better than manufacturing 3 times more in India. That was supposed to be the end of that, a compromise of sorts. To give them an additional 36 would be an complete waste for us and an windfall for the French. We would have zero justification for the original deal if we go though and would be seen as a complete blunder with us getting no benefit out of such a large order. Ya, a loser’s contract it would be.

Nope.. You get what you pay for with Rafale, If Rafale won't provide that then mod would've not ordered 36, they might have gone to F series with the American in G2G deal.(unlikely). both IAF and Army have their own allocated budget for procurement.

The French don’t have the volumes like the Americans and that alone makes their products costly. Add to it, the French are notorious for squeezing us, anyone who saw the M2k upgrade and believed otherwise is seriously gullible. The French were given 36 as an compromise, as I have already said.

See now you're giving more bargaining chips to the Americans.. They may demand anything that india not wish to go ahead with it.... Throwing additional 3-4 billion to increase the Rafale numbers to 72+ won't break India in anyway as people think. See the price of what we're paying now with the emergency purchases?? do you think it won't break our economy ?? what do you think????

The Americans haven’t connected military purchases to trade surplus in so many words but it’s an underlying issue and will need resolving. I would rather it be military equipment than in the agricultural arena. One way or the other, it will have to be done.

The emergency purchases are a disaster and an outcome of gross stupidity. We are getting fleeced left and right and that is happening when the economy has been hit hard by covid. Emergency purchases are an example of our mistakes, holding that up to suggest we indulge in more foolishness is not wise.

So why do you think American wont sell us Missile to integrate into Rafale if Dassault allows it to.. and Rafale package include one of the best A2A in the world.
You always can't worry about the costs when it comes to defense procurements. you want to complain about costs to benefit, may i ask you how the PAF's American made A2A missile were evaded by MKIs after ballakot ???? shows the weakness of American Missiles well right ?

The Americans are not stupid enough to give India missiles to put on French aircraft, it’s why the M2k has none. The French have even refused to give their missiles for the Tejas because it has an Israeli radar, they don’t give anything for our Russian platforms either.

The Pakistani F16 which are mostly older and without AESA used their missiles against the Sukhois at very long ranges. That’s not saying much about the performance of American missiles though they managed to keep a more powerful platform at bay with an older aircraft.

its because F16s are mass produced for US and world market where Dassault had no orders till that time, and by the time we signed both Egypt and Qatar had already placed the order so first delivery had to go to them. now 10 are delivered 5 in service more will come end of this year[

We don’t need to care what reasons the French have for slow delivery, it’s their problem. No need to make it ours.

 

[Indrajit]

Ya we will see a further deficit of 2 squadrons and after then by 2023 probably see a increase in squadrons per year.

I think the number of squadrons issue is overplayed. We have 350 Su30 MKI and its important not to directly delink quantity from quality. We do need more squadrons but it’s not like we have only Mig 21’s. Our bigger problem is that Su30 is getting a bit long in the tooth and is need of urgent upgrade. In my mind that would be priority number 1. The most pathetic scene of cheering 5 Rafales that we have been forced to witness when we have 350 Su30 MKI and the PM saying last year after the clash with the Pakistanis that it would have been different if we had Rafales was a terrible morale downer. Essentially we seem to have no trust in the Sukhois and they are our mainstay. We need an upgrade and quick. That’s more important than any additional orders for any other type.

 

[Cheran]

 

[Bhurki]

I think the number of squadrons issue is overplayed. We have 350 Su30 MKI and its important not to directly delink quantity from quality. We do need more squadrons but it’s not like we have only Mig 21’s. Our bigger problem is that Su30 is getting a bit long in the tooth and is need of urgent upgrade. In my mind that would be priority number 1. The most pathetic scene of cheering 5 Rafales that we have been forced to witness when we have 350 Su30 MKI and the PM saying last year after the clash with the Pakistanis that it would have been different if we had Rafales was a terrible morale downer. Essentially we seem to have no trust in the Sukhois and they are our mainstay. We need an upgrade and quick.

261 not 350...
272 were ordered, 11 have since crashed.
Upgrading 261 aircraft in massive task both in effort and money, almost as big as making 100 brand new airframes. It will take more than a decade to upgrade even majority of them( speaking from witnessing M2K and jaguar upgrades)