Why is China Nervous about India’s DSDBO Road?
It is a long range Indian intent to get the Aksai Chin plateau back, but there was no intent to initiate a fight about it today or in next five years. Only thing India undertook in the last few years is to build roads and infrastructure which had been neglected for the last 50 years. One of the strategic road DSDBO* road together with a twelve or so feeder road which runs parallel to the Chinese Aksai Chin road, but roughly 70 to 80 km away, has bothered China. In Addition, India is also establishing an all weather connectivity to Ladakh by building a tunnel under the Zozilla Pass on Srinagar - Leh road and also as an alternative route to Ladakh by building a difficult road from Manali to Leh tunneling under the Rohtang pass. The latter is an alternative strategic route, in case the Srinagar - Leh road is ever blocked. All this in my dictionary, a huge road building activity on India’s part. That has made Chinese very nervous. They wished to remain to dominate Ladakh crossroads where the Chinese Aksai Chin road and Chinese built Pakistani CPEC, pass. The Indian built DSDBO* road stands in the middle and prevents Chinese and Pakistani domination. This is an Indian master stroke.
* Darbuk–Shyok-DBO Road
From Daulat Beg Oldi, (last Indian post on DSDBO) the Chinese built CPEC is not far, rather in the vicinity. Although CPEC is a commercial failure, but can be used to intimidate India by squeezing Indian Defenses between Chinese Aksai Chin road and Chinese built CPEC in Pakistani Occupied Kashmir. Possible or not, but this strategic thinking is there in the enemies' minds.
All these infrastructure developments in Indian Ladakh are bothering China, they decided to work against it in the spring of 2020. They occupied the heights of Galwan River valley which overlooks India’s DSDBO road. They also started a useless fight to dominate the low points of Pangong lake. The same is true about Gogra Hot springs area. Latter two were to keep the fight going in order to get an upper hand in negotiating Galwan River deal.
The shock of Chinese dead in the June 15th fist fight, completely derailed their plans. The Chinese Communist Party and the new General in Ladakh had not anticipated Indian soldiers will of iron and wrist of steel. They met a match greater than them. Stupidly they are not confirming their casualties. In add-on, they are being forced to withdraw.
Strategically, they missed the opportunity to squeeze India between Chinese armies and the Pakistani Army. Had they succeeded to overwhelm the Indian formation at the Depsang plains (upper plateau of Eastern Ladakh) then the Pakistani Army and PLA were in a safe position to grab it and that would have left the Daulat Beg Oldi and the Korakaram Pass in Chinese/Pakistani hands? In the process Pakistan would have become the master of Siachen Glacier and China master of all mountainous lands until the Korakaram Pass.
Simply that, It was not to be.
The Chinese conscript soldier could not face the tough Indian soldiers on June 15th. After the Indian positions in a month, had been reinforced with 30,000 mountain trained additional troops. The Pakistanis went absolutely quite, maybe somebody from behind was turning the keys on them to stay out of this fight. Moreover Pakistani armed formation is trained to fight in the plains of Punjab and not in the Himalayan heights. They would have had tough time to give a good account of themselves in Ladakh. Hence, these two Chinese and Pakistanis trying to squeeze India in Ladakh fell to the wayside.
Now comes, the Indian opportunity to push China out of Aksai Chin, if a large scale fighting starts. The armored Indian column in Depsang plains with big tanks like t-90 and t-72 at its disposal would have made a minced meat of newly built Chinese light tank and reached the Chinese Aksai Chin road and cut It off. Although the foregoing is possible, it is unlikely to happen like that. The Chinese responded with enthusiasm to de-escalate but a bit slow. They are still in the Pangong Lake area as well as at the height of Galwan River and a bit in Depsang plains. They will vacate these slowly but look for weaknesses in Indian resolve. Truthfully squeezed by Indian Economic retaliation, they wish to avert a big fight, least if not as successful, they become a laughing stock for the rest of the world.
Truthfully, Modi government has avoided a large fight in the wastelands of Ladakh, although nothing could be said about Chinese intents. They are terribly aggressive ever since XI Jinping has come to power. The good news is that China has been driven to the wall in its consumer goods exports as most people blame it for spreading the Covid-19. Its exports have shrunk on top of President Trump has not taken away the import duty, he added to $200 billion consumer goods imports a year back. This bad news is backed by possible exit of huge manufacturing from China. US companies have already given notice of that and Japanese Government has already set aside $600 million to help Japanese companies to exit China manufacturing. India has added its own anger to ban huge imports and banned software application for cellular phone phones.
That together with bad publicity of Chinese aggressiveness in Ladakh has a huge stone wall built against anything Chinese. Still they need friends and India is not one of them.
Hence until they make huge amends to their behaviour, hugely improved Indian armed forces can force China out of Aksai Chin and if they still persist in bad behaviour then, India is ready to block the Straits of Malacca to deny Chinese oil and prevent trade. To this their inexperienced Navy with new and untried copied technology can do nothing except fight sea battles and loose some ships.
