India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[Raj Malhotra]

But didn't MEA say disengagement is not complete and Lt. Gen. Y K joshi said that we will restore status quo ?
I don't think govt can backtrack now after seeing satellite pictures.

The only Official statement by GoI is by Modi that Chinese have not entered in our territory, rest is leaks by MEA & Vague statement by others. Net Net India will not do anything

 

[DownWithCCP]

The only Official statement by GoI is by Modi that Chinese have not entered in our territory, rest is leaks.

I don't know if you have ever followed the statement, when he said that they have not entered our territory, he was referring to only the galwan valley incident and not the situation in Ladakh as a whole, this was specifically clarified by the PMO I don't know why people chose to ignore the fact whenever someone brings up the statement from the PM.

 

[ezsasa]

Govt can't bury Aroor's analysis forever.
BJP voter base on twitter are getting impatient but are hopeful that action may happen by the end of October.

Trust me they can't bury this. You can't hide these.

BJP vote base expectations is secondary, it’s the opinion of people living within 100 km of LAC & Chinese border that should matter, all 3000 odd km of it. They will be impacted the most, if there is a military escalation.

argument can be made that PLA in all probability will not restrict themselves to 5-10 km like pakis, since it is going to be their first proper war in 40 years and Xi’s legitimacy at stake, they will go full gung ho.

am I making sense?

 

[Sanglamorre]

I respectfully disagree because while this strategy is sound from a geopolitical or even commonsense standpoint, It comes with heavy domestic political costs for the ruling dispensation. Ladakh will play heavily in the upcoming Bihar elections, especially with the Galwan clash involving "16 Bihar" (I know it's a diverse unit, but the name is a political hot potato for the BJP). Unless BJP can prove confirmed PLA fatalities that are in the ballpark of the 16 Bihar fatalities, the Galwan skirmish remains "unavenged by Modi" in the eyes of the Bihari voter. If NDA/BJP lose Bihar, UP is guaranteed to slip out of their hands next in 2022.

Basically Modi's response to Galwan will decide whether he ends up a Churchill or Chamberlain. As of now the Indian voter hasn't seen a response. "maarte maarte mare" is just political first-aid, but it doesn't count as a "response."

Therefore no military response with visible/undeniable PLA fatalities == guaranteed loss for the BJP in Bihar and UP. Modi cannot save his skin without being irrational and unpredictable.

Their recent tactic has been just buying the winners. They don't care about winning elections the usual way anymore. Even if they lose Bihar, they'll buy their way in.

So, Koi Nahi ghussa is the best we'll be getting I'm afraid.

 

[jadoogar]

Iska apna hi drama hai aj karunga, kal karunga. Ek TiK ToK nhi ban ho raha isse.

Instead of banning tiktok there are reports that some US company will be asked to buy it. So just give the han untold billions for an app that loses money - and can easily be banned on national security grounds

Same way PRC bans facebook and then Cheen buys FB cheeni app for $175 billion.

FB (ex PRC) is worth $725 bn (approx)
or ~$125 per user (ex cheen, assuming 5.8 billion world pop ex cheen)
so - cheen operation would be worth $125*1.4 billion (prc pop) = 175

Do same for twitter, snapchat, google, etc etc
(above is hypothetical. I know that FB is banned in PRC)

 

[tarunraju]

So, Koi Nahi ghussa is the best we'll be getting I'm afraid.

Google is publishing Maxar-sourced sat images in Google Maps / Google Earth, and they seem to be updating every 15 days. Every donkey with a smartphone in Bihar can access Google Earth.

Congress will use sat images in its election posters.

 

[Indrajit]

I respectfully disagree because while this strategy is sound from a geopolitical standpoint, It comes with heavy domestic political costs for the ruling dispensation. Ladakh will play heavily in the upcoming Bihar elections, especially with the Galwan clash involving "16 Bihar" (I know it's a diverse unit, but the name is a political hot potato for the BJP). Unless BJP can prove confirmed PLA fatalities that are in the ballpark of the 16 Bihar fatalities, the Galwan skirmish remains "unavenged by Modi" in the eyes of the Bihari voter. If NDA/BJP lose Bihar, UP is guaranteed to slip out of their hands next in 2022.

Basically Modi's response to Galwan will decide whether he ends up a Churchill or Chamberlain. As of now the Indian voter hasn't seen a response. "maarte maarte mare" is just political first-aid, but it doesn't count as a "response."

Therefore no military response with visible/undeniable PLA fatalities == guaranteed loss for the BJP in Bihar and UP.

As Vajpayee told Nehru, “your personality is a mix of Churchill and Chamberlain......”, might apply now too. Imagine looking like one you have spent an entire political life belittling...

 

[Indrajit]

argument can be made that PLA in all probability will not restrict themselves to 5-10 km like pakis, since it is going to be their first proper war in 40 years and Xi’s legitimacy at stake, they will go full gung ho.

am I making sense?

Unfortunately, yes.

 

[tarunraju]

As Vajpayee told Nehru, “your personality is a mix of Churchill and Chamberlain......”, might apply now too. Imagine looking like one you have spent an entire political life belittling...

In that case Modi is politically finished, as Nehru was after 1962, and with him, the BJP is staring at an abyss.

At least Nehru tried.

 

[Bhadra]

For one reason or another, we are always caught by surprise.

1962 Chinese invasion, we were caught by surprise.
1965 Pakistani operation gibraltar, we were caught by surprise
1999 Kargil, we were caught by surprise
2019 Pakistani retaliation to Balakot, we were caught by surprise
2020 Chinese intrusions, we are caught by surprise

Seems less like surprise and more like incompetence.

Sorry if it hurts anyone's feelings here, but there should not be surprise after surprise like this.

Let us face this perennial question squarely...

Firstly, all those failures have been on military intelligence..
not that much on other apscts. Terrorism is a realed military field where intelligence failures have been quite often..

Secondly. There are no dearth of resources nor of manpower with intelligence agencies. However, it is a combination of a set of factors that leads to failure in military and strategic intelligence-

= Firstly, it is lack of training. The intelligence community in India is not trained to understand military aspects in the correct and practical perspective which leads to a lack of understanding and analysis of military information.

= Excessive emphasis on political and scandalous intelligence.- Who is making money who is involved with which woman, whose son is going with whose daughter, who is in touch with opposition leaders? etc. All intelligence that can lead to blackmail, sabotage, buy out political and bureaucratic opposition.

= Deliberate destruction of military intelligence agencies and turf wars between intelligence agencies. IPS cadre has been singularly responsible for such negative actions.

= Nature of our political system where there are five-year leaders least interested in long time perspectives and issues. They lack the perspective and understanding of strategic issues. There have been instances wherein PMs like IK Gujral, MMS and Devgoda deliberately harmed Indian strategic interests.

= Bureaucracy's apathy towards military and strategic issues or their wrong emphasis on aspects which they consider important without any direction and authority.

 

[LDev]

Let me play the devils advocate here.. Chinese incursion in galwan into India's side of LAC ( INDIAN perception) has been reversed.. I am not sure about Gogra and hot spring.. but even if there is an incursion onto India's side, the incursions would be minor in terms of incursion distance ( I am not talking about buildup on chinese side of LAC ).. So far so good. In all the above sections Indian Army can have a logistics link setup right upto the friction point..

Now, assume that there is no chinese incursion between F4 and F8, or any chinese buildup upto Y junction in depsang on the indian side .. but also assume 50000 PLA troops and 3 indian divisions are deployed in aksai Chin and ladakh respectively.. If hundreds of Chinese soldiers start walking today towards F4 and Y junction with heavy equipment, is there any way Indian Army can challenge the PLA in strength with adequate logistical support beyond F4 or beyond Y junction without mounting airborne operations ( beyond Y junction were no Indian ground vehicle can pass through) or a combination of airborne and amphibious operations in Pangong. Can this be done without triggering a war ?

IMO it cannot be done without the IAF using airpower and thereby triggering a war. See that interview of Air Marshal Nambiar by Shiv Aroor posted on the IAF thread. He says that for the PLA to make meaningful gains on the ground, control of the skies is a pre-requisite. The same is also true in reverse. And the Chinese have gambled that India will not start the war. The jury is still out on what India will do in the next few months. The media have commentators who speak of the Indian Army being prepared to stay on through the winter. But staying on through the winter is not fighting the PLA to push them back. It is rather an endurance match of which army has the staying power and logistics support to last through the winter.

 

[Indrajit]

In that case Modi is politically finished, as Nehru was after 1962, and with him, the BJP is staring at an abyss.

At least Nehru tried.

Spin doctors better now.

 

[Sanglamorre]

Google is publishing Maxar-sourced sat images in Google Maps / Google Earth, and they seem to be updating every 15 days. Every donkey with a smartphone in Bihar can access Google Earth.

Congress will use sat images in its election posters.

Ofc they will.

BJP will counter it with, are you belittling the result gained by supreme sacrifice of our soldiers?? And think of soldiers in Siachen!! 56-inch scared Chinese, their plan was Delhi. Epic save hahaha.

But like I mentioned, they'll buy the winners. That's it, they'll get control.

 

[tarunraju]

argument can be made that PLA in all probability will not restrict themselves to 5-10 km like pakis, since it is going to be their first proper war in 40 years and Xi’s legitimacy at stake, they will go full gung ho.

am I making sense?

A "gung ho" ingress into India-proper won't be before Beijing and Delhi are irradiated craters.

 

[ezsasa]

A 40 km ingress into India-proper won't be before Beijing and Delhi are irradiated craters.

Not ingress, incoming shelling , multi barrel rockets & A2G dumb bombs in worst case scenario.

 

[mokoman]

Instead of banning tiktok there are reports that some US company will be asked to buy it. So just give the han untold billions for an app that loses money - and can easily be banned on national security grounds

Same way PRC bans facebook and then Cheen buys FB cheeni app for $175 billion.

FB (ex PRC) is worth $725 bn (approx)
or ~$125 per user (ex cheen, assuming 5.8 billion world pop ex cheen)
so - cheen operation would be worth $125*1.4 billion (prc pop) = 175

Do same for twitter, snapchat, google, etc etc
(above is hypothetical. I know that FB is banned in PRC)

News says Microsoft is in talks to buy Tik Tok.

To me this just shows where US allegiance actually lies.

US - China can come to agreement on things and then China will happily stab us.

 

[tarunraju]

BJP will counter it with, are you belittling the result gained by supreme sacrifice of our soldiers?? And think of soldiers in Siachen!! 56-inch scared Chinese, their plan was Delhi. Epic save hahaha.

That shit will fly with the pakistani voter, to whom every political speech begins with "humaari tehreek ne pakistan ke liye khoon bahaya hain," not the Indian voter.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Google is publishing Maxar-sourced sat images in Google Maps / Google Earth, and they seem to be updating every 15 days. Every donkey with a smartphone in Bihar can access Google Earth.

Congress will use sat images in its election posters.

Not going to matter.. Most indians are in awe of China.. so, most people would not be bothered by inaction against an other worldly galactic power like China.. Inaction againt Pakistan carries a higher political cost.. but even inaction post 26/11 did not stop congress from being reelected 6 months later..

 

[tarunraju]

Not ingress, incoming shelling , multi barrel rockets & A2G dumb bombs in worst case scenario.

If there is no ingress from China, then nothing stops India from returning that shelling, MBRL strikes, etc., and tossing CPEC into the dustbin of history.

 

[Sanglamorre]

That shit will fly with the pakistani voter, to whom every political speech begins with "humaari tehreek ne pakistan ke liye khoon bahaya hain," not the Indian voter.

For them, the narrative is already digital strike, Rafale etc. That app banning has been played up so much as a "masterstroke" that people think it's a nuke attack or something. There's also the 43 dead PLA soldiers.

Dariwala has set the narratives, BJP will try to whittle down the Congi attacks as much as they can by that.