India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[kaaleshwaar]

Oh!! He Chinese? (Arvion?)

Just joking, I don't think he is

 

[LETHALFORCE]

For one reason or another, we are always caught by surprise.

1962 Chinese invasion, we were caught by surprise.
1965 Pakistani operation gibraltar, we were caught by surprise
1999 Kargil, we were caught by surprise
2019 Pakistani retaliation to Balakot, we were caught by surprise
2020 Chinese intrusions, we are caught by surprise

Seems less like surprise and more like incompetence.

Sorry if it hurts anyone's feelings here, but there should not be surprise after surprise like this.

since everyone loves us and we have no enemies and we keep saying peace bs we get surprised.
Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me .( With India no limit)

 

[Hellfire]

Leaving something out here:

Please note the date of the post as highlighted

And this

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The future course of action, is playing out.

Cheers.

 

[nick_indian]

Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me .( With India no limit)

Exactly my point.

 

[Sridhar_TN]

Just joking, I don't think he is

I’m pretty sure he is.

 

[Knowitall]

Bro why u banned @Avrion ... .
Was he abused anyone......he
Was the only member to be active 24 hr in forum

Chini nikla

I mean he was a shopkeeper who had contacts in pla and had sold spare ship parts a bit hard to believe.

 

[patriots]

Leaving something out here:

View attachment 55203

Please note the date of the post as highlighted

And this

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The future course of action, is playing out.

Cheers.

Time will tell.....Sir you know better...

 

[Cartel Boss]

This entire predicament can be attributed to simple disconnect between India and China. China has started to view India as an enemy since 1947 and has taken a series of steps to undermine India. India on the other hand has taken no steps to counter China until BJP came along. Let me just give you the tip of the iceberg on dereliction of duty from Congress Party. In 1947, India had the best military in Asia. Japan was in ruin. China had a rag-tag militia. It was Nehru's job to build on that instead the guy downgraded India's military between 1947 and 1962. Decades after decades were wasted by Congress Party which could have been used to improve India's security. Anyway, all this talk is water under the bridge now.

It is still not too late to build a military that can defend India. For this to happen, India will have to eradicate its 5th column. The issue of national security is not as simple as building military. It also involves building awareness among civilians. This means every medium that can affect the minds of Indians needs to be sternly examined; this includes decolonization of education system, holding journalists accountable, straightening out Bollywood, keeping an eye on babus who think they are more important than the people they are supposed to serve and last but not the least corrupt netas like Raul and Kejari.

 

[patriots]

Chini nikla

I mean he was a shopkeeper who had contacts in pla and had sold spare ship parts a bit hard to believe.

Bro ...how can we say he is chineese or not
.....,

 

[cereal killer]

For one reason or another, we are always caught by surprise.

1962 Chinese invasion, we were caught by surprise.
1965 Pakistani operation gibraltar, we were caught by surprise
1999 Kargil, we were caught by surprise
2019 Pakistani retaliation to Balakot, we were caught by surprise
2020 Chinese intrusions, we are caught by surprise

Seems less like surprise and more like incompetence.

Sorry if it hurts anyone's feelings here, but there should not be surprise after surprise like this.

We've been getting surprised since 1192 AD. Notable exception is 1971 & we all know what we did back then.

 

[Hellfire]

Time will tell.....Sir you know better...

I have the problem of posting in two formats - personal opinion, which is hawkish, and analysis, which is an exact opposite. Creates an inherent antithetical situation for me.

I do hope am wrong on my post going forward.

 

[nick_indian]

We've been getting surprised since 1192 AD. Notable exception is 1971 & we all know what we did back then.

I think that it is actually incompetence which we try to behind "surprise" or some kind of grand "dushman ki chaal".

 

[mokoman]

The Chinese helicopter crash report is in sm only,not in mainstream media
ABP news reporter Neeraj Rajput...said that ...this incident is not from lac
Bdw our own @NeXoft007 has posted a photo..on twitter of crashed z9.....

Do you have link ?

 

[Sehwag213]

I have the problem of posting in two formats - personal opinion, which is hawkish, and analysis, which is an exact opposite. Creates an inherent antithetical situation for me.

I do hope am wrong on my post going forward.

But didn't MEA say disengagement is not complete and Lt. Gen. Y K joshi said that we will restore status quo ?
I don't think govt can backtrack now after seeing satellite pictures.

 

[LDev]

I’m pretty sure he is.

One thing I was sure off was there were multiple people on that account. The language and subject proficiency varied a lot from post to post. Not to mention the amount of posts and time spent. One person could not have been that active.

 

[Sanglamorre]

But didn't MEA say disengagement is not complete and Lt. Gen. Y K joshi said that we will restore status quo ?
I don't think govt can backtrack now after seeing satellite pictures.

You are underestimating GoI's brushing under the carpet and obfuscation capabilities. What happened to Aroor's analysis? Got buried.

 

[Sehwag213]

You are underestimating GoI's brushing under the carpet and obfuscation capabilities. What happened to Aroor's analysis? Got buried.

Govt can't bury Aroor's analysis forever.
Even BJP voter base on twitter are getting impatient but are hopeful that action may happen by the end of October.

Trust me they can't bury this. You can't hide these.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

The reason India was caught was surprise was because at the highest level of the security apparatus in India, a wrong conclusion was arrived at. That conclusion being that as economic links between the two countries deepened to the levels that they had by 2019, that the Chinese would have an interest in maintaining peace on the border. That conclusion was wrong because although China has significantly higher trade volumes with Japan, Taiwan, Australia, Vietnam and Hong Kong and yet China has border issues and military skirmishes with all of those countries with PLAAF planes or PLAN Navy ships getting into skirmishes almost every single day with these countries at the same time that huge container ships with cargo are also plying between these countries. With India, China shares a land border and so the most convenient mode for China vis a vis India is encroachment on the land frontier as opposed to by sea or air as is the case with the other countries named above.

So IMO the news of Chinese intrusions in Ladakh would have gone up the chain of command fairly quickly but at the senior political/bureaucrat levels there would have been disbelief that barely 6 months after the Modi-Jinping meeting in Mahabalipuram and after India had opened up it's markets to the extent that it has to China, that China would do something like this. And that is where IMO clarification would have been sought from Russia maybe as that country is close to both China and India. And reports are that the feedback from the Russians was that this was only an exercise and the PLA would soon pull back. Of course that was completely inaccurate as events since have proven. And that is why ex-GOI bureaucrats who are commentators in the media speak of a betrayal by China.

Let me play the devils advocate here.. Chinese incursion in galwan into India's side of LAC ( INDIAN perception) has been reversed.. I am not sure about Gogra and hot spring.. but even if there is an incursion onto India's side, the incursions would be minor in terms of incursion distance ( I am not talking about buildup on chinese side of LAC ).. So far so good. In all the above sections Indian Army can have a logistics link setup right upto the friction point..

Now, assume that there is no chinese incursion between F4 and F8, or any chinese buildup upto Y junction in depsang on the indian side .. but also assume 50000 PLA troops and 3 indian divisions are deployed in aksai Chin and ladakh respectively.. If hundreds of Chinese soldiers start walking today towards F4 and Y junction with heavy equipment, is there any way Indian Army can challenge the PLA in strength with adequate logistical support beyond F4 or beyond Y junction without mounting airborne operations ( beyond Y junction were no Indian ground vehicle can pass through) or a combination of airborne and amphibious operations in Pangong, where only indian foot patrols can move beyond F4. Can this be done without triggering a war ? So, the problem is not really that of delayed intelligence. The chinese challenge here is whether India is ready to start a limited war or even a full scale war..

 

[tarunraju]

Leaving something out here:

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Please note the date of the post as highlighted

And this

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The future course of action, is playing out.

Cheers.

I respectfully disagree because while this strategy is sound from a geopolitical or even commonsense standpoint, It comes with heavy domestic political costs for the ruling dispensation. Ladakh will play heavily in the upcoming Bihar elections, especially with the Galwan clash involving "16 Bihar" (I know it's a diverse unit, but the name is a political hot potato for the BJP). Unless BJP can prove confirmed PLA fatalities that are in the ballpark of the 16 Bihar fatalities, the Galwan skirmish remains "unavenged by Modi" in the eyes of the Bihari voter. If NDA/BJP lose Bihar, UP is guaranteed to slip out of their hands next in 2022.

Basically Modi's response to Galwan will decide whether he ends up a Churchill or Chamberlain. As of now the Indian voter hasn't seen a response. "maarte maarte mare" is just political first-aid, it doesn't count as a "response."

Therefore no military response with visible/undeniable PLA fatalities == guaranteed loss for the BJP in Bihar and UP. Modi cannot save his skin without being irrational and unpredictable to the Chinese.

 

[Sehwag213]

Govt can't bury Aroor's analysis forever.
Even BJP voter base on twitter are getting impatient but are hopeful that action may happen by the end of October.

Trust me they can't bury this. You can't hide these.

For example