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raju1982

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jai jaganath

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Official induction estimate for AMCA is around 2035, so my guess is around 2045.
How come roll out in next 4 years
It's generally 3 years
 

raju1982

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How come roll out in next 4 years
It's generally 3 years
If we take Mk1, Mk2, ALH,, LCH as examples, roll out should take around 4 years and first flight in next 2 years. All 5 PVs will take another 8 years of testing as there any many things new in AMCA twin engine aerodynamics. Then CCS clearance for IOC 20 odds mk1 for IAF. Another 5 years for first aircraft in IAF service. another 2 years for 1st sqn.

So 4+2+8+5+2 = 21 years for first sqd in IAF service. Optimistically by the year ~2045 we should see first sqn.
 

jai jaganath

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If we take Mk1, Mk2, ALH,, LCH as examples, roll out should take around 4 years and first flight in next 2 years. All 5 PVs will take another 8 years of testing as there any many things new in AMCA twin engine aerodynamics. Then CCS clearance for IOC 20 odds mk1 for IAF. Another 5 years for first aircraft in IAF service. another 2 years for 1st sqn.

So 4+2+8+5+2 = 21 years for first sqd in IAF service. Optimistically by the year ~2045 we should see first sqn.
Things were different during mk1
We had no existing industry and a lot of mess were created sanctions engine delays improper planning import lobby trying to destroy the project small orders
Now things are streamlined and way much different
T+3 is standard no matter what
Yeah testing might take more than expected timeline and cause but roll out will happen after 3 years if funds are released this year
 

vampyrbladez

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How come roll out in next 4 years
It's generally 3 years
Per ACM R K S Bhadauria, timeline to first flight was 4.5 years with 6 months for approval + 3 years for rollout (taxi trials) + 1 year for first flight in December 2023.

Thus new timeline should be 2.5-3.5 years for first flight assuming LRUs and jig fixtures were being made/prepared using other funds.
 

raju1982

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Things were different during mk1
We had no existing industry and a lot of mess were created sanctions engine delays improper planning import lobby trying to destroy the project small orders
Now things are streamlined and way much different
T+3 is standard no matter what
Yeah testing might take more than expected timeline and cause but roll out will happen after 3 years if funds are released this year
Now things are better streamlined but now local manufacturing clause for engine is causing delays. Production of AMCA is totally different level than Tejas mk1 or mk2. It needs precision tools to retain stealth. Also I am expecting IAF to change requirements every 5 years :tongue:

I think roll out will take 5 years minimum if they are saying 4 years. Remember? mk2 was supposed to roll out in August 2022? Its already 2024 March.

If we think from exp plus practically, 1st AMCA sqn not before 2045.
 

jai jaganath

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Now things are better streamlined but now local manufacturing clause for engine is causing delays. Production of AMCA is totally different level than Tejas mk1 or mk2. It needs precision tools to retain stealth. Also I am expecting IAF to change requirements every 5 years :tongue:

I think roll out will take 5 years minimum if they are saying 4 years. Remember? mk2 was supposed to roll out in August 2022? Its already 2024 March.

If we think from exp plus practically, 1st AMCA sqn not before 2045.
That's why I said if we release funds this year then 3 years is possible but again like incase of mk2 funds being delayed after clearance then same problem
But I am sure testing will take more than 5 years
 

ezsasa

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while post facto nit picking goes on, will have to check how many CCS approvals/contracts signed by incumbent govt in last quarter or two before national elections. i suspect there wouldn't be many.
 

Azaad

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But AMCA will roll out in 3 years vroooo
It should roll out in 3 yrs post release of funds for as far as the first prototype goes apart from IWB & IRST there's nothing much on it by way of avionics like EODAS or sensor fusion or any other distinguishing feature from say the F-35 to make it a complicated piece of work . It'd be more of a TD or proof of concept.
 

raju1982

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But AMCA will roll out in 3 years vroooo
Not going to happen for sure. If we believe this we will get hurt at the end! :daru:

From the day funds are relased it will take 4/5 years for roll out. Pls note India did not made any F solah like Jurkey/Tapan. Nor do we fav buddy of uncle sam like SKorea or Israel. Nor our industry supply cbain is as mature as them or China.

So it will take time.
 

TopWatcher

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Not going to happen for sure. If we believe this we will get hurt at the end! :daru:

From the day funds are relased it will take 4/5 years for roll out. Pls note India did not made any F solah like Jurkey/Tapan. Nor do we fav buddy of uncle sam like SKorea or Israel. Nor our industry supply cbain is as mature as them or China.

So it will take time.
Agar kuch bhi nhi hai, too kya maaze ke liye approve kiya hai
 

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