The latest Trump tweet is a nationalist's wet dream. This is Bannon on steroids.
It seems we are going to see some major upheaval in the world order once/if the current crisis subsides. Trump's suspension of immigration being one example. Do you think we are going to see a more nationalistic multi-polar world in the future? Or will globalization be back in full swing picking off all the weakened countries and consolidating like never before.
One thing to remark, EU as an entity has been found wanting in its response to Coronavirus, with countries being left to fend for themselves. Anti-EU sentiment is growng as well.
What kind of world do you envision at the end of it all? What new alliances? Is UN still relevant?
Feel free to speculate.
The US: Withdrawal of US from the so called "Globalization" circus would continue with much faster pace if Trump gets re-elected this year. However, with Biden at helm , the same may not happen very rapidly but surely we could expect some major re-alignment with respect to China in the US establishment no matter who gets elected.
For immigration part, Trump has added a nuanced twist to it by adding "Skilled Immigration" knowing fully well that it's silicon valley or even any scientific/technological establishment could not maintain their edge without the overseas talent (especially from China, India etc.). Moreover, numbers of these skilled migrants won't affect the availability of jobs (particularly blue collar jobs) at lower end. What he doesn't want is the mass immigration that might affect his or republican's electoral apple-cart through Demographic changes. Amid Covid crisis, whose impact will linger on till election day this year, even the Democrats know they can't go against Trump over this issue on full throttle as they usually do. So,. this crisis is definitely going to impact adversely those people who are aiming to live "American Dream" through immigration.
Trump's dream to make the US a major industrial power house again will remain a pipe-dream given the high operating cost (labor,taxation etc.). It seems that his way of bilateral trade deal is an optimum solution to extract his pound of flesh from the nations it is importing most. We can kiss good bye to WTO very soon.
For Nationalism part, I feel Americans are one of the most nationalist hypocrites; they flaunt their national identity everywhere from underwear to comic superheros yet if they find some other countrymen doing it , they will disparage it and start singing praises to liberalism, freedom, globalism etc.. For them, there could only be American Nationalism on this planet; rest is Fascism. So, this is something which is quite hard wired in many "son-of-soil", hinter-landers of the US and it will not going to die any sooner. However, they will gradually experience their losing leverage while dealing with "independent" states and will impact their deal making ability globally. Its soft power image/bargaining power will bear the brunt which will lead to sporadic demonstration of Hard/military power in short engagements like in Syria/ Iran/ or elsewhere just to project its military might to the world (& of course, Marketing of their Defense Stuff ! ).
European Union: This may be the defining moment for the EU, post Brexit, to demonstrate how it could rescue its member state falling into deep recession and industrial inactivity. I feel that post Covid, the EU will emerge stronger under leadership of Germany by implementing something akin to Marshall Plan 2.0.
It's dependent on Germany that how it will weigh its National interest over political correctness on the policy issues related to Immigration and its dealing with China. The member states may also witness surge of nationalistic political movement if the Euro zone falls into deep recession which has potential to torn the EU apart. Given the strong budget books of Germany & France, I hope they will together pull EU out from impending car crash.
Relationship with the US will further go down hill and relevance of NATO will also wane slowly depending up on how EU realigns its relationship with Russia to wean it away from the solid crutches of China. Good relationship between EU and Russia will make NATO irrelevant provided the EU has to make huge compromise on its political correctness over its immediate economical and political interests.
Last but not the least, we can expect major change in the EU immigration policy in lines with the US which rewards the honest immigrant following all the due diligence over illegal immigrants. Moreover, we may also see spurt in Euro Zone population in Jan-Feb 2021 !!
India: Under the helm of Modi, we have witness 2 economic re-boots so far i.e. Demonetization and over a month long Lock-Down, and a partial re-boot in the form of GST. Given the public trust in Modi, things are well under control and outlook of Covid outbreak seems to be waning post June, 2020. This gives a much needed pause to the economic policy makers to revive the economy and make it lucrative for foreign investments particularly in manufacturing sector. These times call for No Holds Barred action in the form of labor-land reforms and Health care revolution. It's time to demonstrate to people that crowding is certainly injurious to health (as happening in Mumbai where people chose money over comfort for their day-to-day life; even they are earning more than 40-50k p.m, yet they prefer to live in crowded chawls in Andheri/Bandra). We need to de-congest cities, open more green field avenues with less regulations so that such crisis could be handled easily.
From geo-political point of view, India has now more variables to play with in a multi-polar scenarios minus China's arm twisting. China will now play an innocent kid getting caught in stealing candy; it will shift the blame, deceive, and run propaganda to neutralize the damage being done to its image so in a way it will not prick India in near future. India has also got its stand vindicated in RCEP negotiations; as the dominance of China wane in RCEP, India would attract investments primarily from Japan and S.Korea for manufacturing. The service sector is expected reel under pressure for 3 quarters till the effect of rescue packages from the US, the EU & others took some shape to jack up consumer sentiments.