COVID-19 and Its Impact on World Politics

[LETHALFORCE]

Japan Moving Manufacturing Out Of China - Will Domino Effect Occur Around the Globe? - Communal News: Online Business, Wholesale & B2B Marketplace News

Japan Moving Manufacturing Out Of China – Will Domino Effect Occur Around the Globe?

 

[nrj]

If only one could correctly predict the impact of Covid-19, they will be riding the ascending curve of this century.

That aside, its tough to ignore that a lot will depend on who has more money in Oct'20. I strongly believe that results of US Presidential election will set the tone for things to come across the world. That event is far more critical now than ever for the world we know about. Horizontal interest groups are far more united and aligned with common objectives than we have seen in past, its not the first time but it sure is new animal altogether. Regardless of election outcome i.e democratic/republican victory, regardless the direction of globalization, regardless the fate of whole 'outsourced' phenomenon, regardless nationalistic sentiments in number of countries; these interest groups are here to stay. And they'll be common feature in many national elections to come across the world.

Short squeeze in oil is quite possible, especially before winter kicks in (Crude may go up in 40$-50$/barrel). Last winter in Europe was mild, how it'll play out this year is anybody's guess. But Dutch & Germans are unlikely to extend caring hand to poor southern members in these volatile times. Emmanuel Macron is unlikely to pull off that ambitious feet, he is sounding more and more lost in confidence with every attempt. With UK, Germany & Netherlands in Guarded footing, its likely that french will turn to Marine le pen and end up as foolish exception at least on mainland. Future of EU & Euro is no longer private embarrassment. Macron just openly asked other members if EU is going to be substantial political project or just a Market project ? It doesn't get clearer than this. With all this chaos in background, it won't be unexpected if smaller neglected member countries get picked up one-by-one between Russia and China. It will be interesting to see how current generation of Russian oligarchs go out in this last hoorah of oil, will it be unsubtle like their nature or some semblance of order will emerge forced by the hands of leadership in Moscow/Beijing.

Accelerated by Covid-19, Income inequality worldwide is about to go higher than ever. In India, we may see all the gains made in poverty eradication over last 20yrs, get reversed . There is talk of declaring economic emergency within next 2yrs to bring out some bigger ordnance in hope to cure the financial situation, but I think that's unlikely & too dramatic. But again, you know the pattern with current establishment. Continuous big changes in domestic economy (voluntary or involuntary) are likely to flourish shadow economy in India, it already is doing well. And then you are chasing symptoms; tax collection, project financing, social schemes, employment & productivity could be severely affected. Sovereign security bonds see little downgrade and before you know it you are printing money to no avail. But I want to be hopeful that this crisis is used to fix & strengthen the fundamentally inward focused economy of India. Waiting for manufacturing units to relocate to India is fine, but that doesn't build your flesh. Those are surely low-hanging fruits but should not be central-piece of rebuilding. Offshore manufacturing brings in variety of problems and demands compromises we should be cautious about. This isn't 90s, that boat sailed long ago. Let's leapfrog to next opportunity.

I think it was Putin who said that, Geopolitics is like elementary mathematics. Simple addition/subtractions bring in major decisions which are out of nobody's dreams. And that can give rise to some very unexpected players in world politics. Maybe country like Indonesia will flourish further in post-corona years. Absence of US involvement in global matters will strengthen some regional players.

With everything going on in Europe, perhaps UK will emerge stronger after few years. Island nations have tendency to grow stronger when left alone, enough examples in history. There is so much Russia & UK can find in common interests and exchange the desired. They can split the areas of influence and drive a real good leverage in tandem.

Some of the international institutions are surely struggling to find relevance. I am not sure if one should root for its collapse before replacing structures/overhauls are in place. Without these institutions, there is little dialogue. And with little dialogue; you have limited communication, ever-falling trust & incentive to inflict damage and prove one upmanship.

One thing I am sure about is without proper vaccine available in every corner of the world, nothing is going back to 'normal'. And that could very well take years to come. What world politics plays out in meantime should surely keep us nervy.

 

[LurkerBaba]

Slightly OT

One thing I am sure about is without proper vaccine available in every corner of the world, nothing is going back to 'normal'. And that could very well take years to come. What world politics plays out in meantime should surely keep us nervy.

A vaccine may never be made. But its not a prerequisite for things to become normal.

We need to understand how to manage the symptoms after a patient is infected. IIRC there's a 80% chance of death once the patient is on ventilator. I'm guessing by next year we'll figure out the right regimen to lessen the effect of the virus on organs and deaths should do down drastically. Right now everyone is in fire-fighting mode.

So things may get back to a "new normal" in a year

 

[no smoking]

Any new product development by many countries will not have china supply chain.

Really? You know, in the real world, that is laughable. Today, the earlier you put your new product into the market, the more money you earn. You know where is the fastest place to turn your new design into new product (low and middle level)? CHINA!

Old products may
continue for a few years until they are phased out. So it may not be dramatic but there is a worldwide
effort to avoid chinese supply chain and manufacturing at all cost.

[ -- Redacted -- ] PROFIT. We can avoid Chinese supply chain and manufacturing at all cost ONLY IF SOMEONE AGREES TO PAY FOR IT. But no one volunteered so far.

Many consumers will also avoid anything
that has a MADE IN CHINA label.

Many consumers? How many? The fact is: the absolute majority of consumers don't give damn where the products are made.

The most important that people here forget is: China is not only a manufacturing base, she is also No.1 or No.2 market for almost every sector of product. No one can afford to leave this market to its competitors. If you want to be a player in this market, then you have to produce there because the cost. Once you start producing there, you will find it is a stupid idea that not export from there to the world.

 

[nrj]

Slightly OT


A vaccine may never be made. But its not a prerequisite for things to become normal.

We need to understand how to manage the symptoms after a patient is infected. IIRC there's a 80% chance of death once the patient is on ventilator. I'm guessing by next year we'll figure out the right regimen to lessen the effect of the virus on organs and deaths should do down drastically. Right now everyone is in fire-fighting mode.

So things may get back to a "new normal" in a year

This is OT. But yes, you are right. We may not see vaccine altogether. It is novel corona infection afterall, and developing vaccine is very difficult. We don't have vaccine for many common flu even today. IMO ventilators just delay the eventual mortality by few days, nothing more. Sophisticated infection management of host already suffering from chronic illnesses or otherwise is a bit stretch to ask for in countries like ours that has pathetic public health infrastructure. And the prevalence of monsters like diabetes, cardiovascular diseases in our population, its even more difficult. You are just keeping the bed warm for next patient who needs it 'more'. Its not scalable, at least in near future. Other smaller countries with comparatively minuscule population could be better equipped to bring down the mortality %, using said technique.

If we take vaccine out of the question, next best hope is herd immunity. I am closely following Dharavi situation, its like a petri dish right now for the world. Dharavi could very well give us direction as to where things are headed & possibly even the solution specific to India. If we do develop the herd immunity soon enough, we may all forget this year like it ever happened and things will go back to 'new normal'. Question is at what cost ? Are we as society ready to brave it out & start the voluntary infection on mass scale. UK took that path, but now having cold feet. The massive surge in death toll we may see in doing so, may or may not be justified. I mean sure, speaking of India we may see little over 15%-20% extra deaths than a normal year. There are thousands who die of common flu and assorted diseases every year, this will be just another noticeable addition.

Even Bajaj spoke out couple of days back saying this is enough & its time to go back to work. More industry captions are likely to follow him in this demand. But Covid-19 deaths are sudden and random. Most of the patients in Mumbai are asymptomatic. Its funny how with all the technology, computing power & advancements, we can't develop vaccine. There was a nice lecture by a professor last year (I can't recollect the name) explaining that the reason we don't have vaccine for many infections like as simple as 'common cold' is because its not 'marketable'; the economics of R&D outweigh the revenue outcome of such vaccine. And it'll take many decades to recover cost, and therefore no major company/govt lab wants to invest.

I pray we develop herd immunity, and at minimum human cost. Personally I am not ready to brave it out & risk infection to me/family. None of the people who fancily talk about the 'curve' and how it should 'go up' in order to go down; want to contribute & be part of that statistic.

Maybe climate will play a major role. India may exhibit dissimilar toll seen in US/Europe, we may be more like Thailand or South Africa. Possibly geographic location & climate conditions will restrict Covid-19 in select countries, enabling them to hold a stronger position in world politics in coming years.

 

[Suryavanshi]

We don't have vaccine for many common flu even today.

That is true but u also gotta consider that no other flu was this lethal, there are several viruses that have higher morality rate than Corona. The striking difference between those virus and COVID is that this one is more infectious and has managed to shut down several economies.
SARS doesn't have a vaccine because it didn't persist as long as this virus so it never garnered attention of major countries.

While the possibility of never having a proper vaccines can never be ruled out, but it will be too quick to conclude that it cant be made because we haven't found vaccine for previous renditions of this virus.

Corona isn't mutating from person to person so it is a relif.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Really? You know, in the real world, that is laughable. Today, the earlier you put your new product into the market, the more money you earn. You know where is the fastest place to turn your new design into new product (low and middle level)? CHINA!



[ -- Redacted -- ] PROFIT. We can avoid Chinese supply chain and manufacturing at all cost ONLY IF SOMEONE AGREES TO PAY FOR IT. But no one volunteered so far.



Many consumers? How many? The fact is: the absolute majority of consumers don't give damn where the products are made.

The most important that people here forget is: China is not only a manufacturing base, she is also No.1 or No.2 market for almost every sector of product. No one can afford to leave this market to its competitors. If you want to be a player in this market, then you have to produce there because the cost. Once you start producing there, you will find it is a stupid idea that not export from there to the world.

just gave you many links about manufacturing leaving China.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Not made in China is global tech's next big trend

Three years ago, manufacturing gadgets in China was a given. That’s changed fundamentally in the era of trade wars and coronavirus.

www.japantimes.co.jp

Not made in China is global tech's next big trend

 

[LETHALFORCE]

iPhone makers plan to shift some manufacturing to India, from China

Many gadget makers are seeking alternatives to China-based production.But it unlikely that China will fully give up its place as the world’s electronics workshop anytime soon

www.livemint.com

iPhone makers plan to shift some manufacturing to India, from China

 

[LETHALFORCE]

COVID-19 – One in seven people would avoid people of Chinese origin or appearance

The threat of COVID-19 could have a significant impact on the UK public’s behaviour, according to a new Ipsos MORI poll.

www.ipsos.com

 

[LETHALFORCE]

International law experts blame China over virus damage

Key question is how to get any reparation and whether China can be held accountable in court, says expert - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

International law experts blame China over virus damage
Key question is how to get any reparation and whether China can be held accountable in court, says expert

 

[LurkerBaba]

So the economically weaker members of the EU want joint debt "coronabonds". The Germans obviously don't agree to this. This could be the trigger-point for countries like Italy to leave the European Union.

How far will Europe go? Central bankers and EU leaders push for 'corona bonds'

European countries are under growing pressure to take an unprecedented move and issue a new kind of debt to tackle the economic impact of the coronavirus.

www.cnbc.com

 

[nrj]

So the economically weaker members of the EU want joint debt "coronabonds". The Germans obviously don't agree to this. This could be the trigger-point for countries like Italy to leave the European Union.

How far will Europe go? Central bankers and EU leaders push for 'corona bonds'

European countries are under growing pressure to take an unprecedented move and issue a new kind of debt to tackle the economic impact of the coronavirus.

www.cnbc.com

Time for another Marshall plan ? Uncle Sam certainly has pockets deep enough to throw lifeline at these countries. But it'd come at far stringent terms & unpleasant strings this time around. Big tech lobby in US will drool at the prospects of gaining good cut of that pie.

OTOH the social safety expenditures in European countries will make anyone dither from giving out that massive aid.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Global firms look to shift from China to India

Global manufacturers have initiated talks with Indian firms to explore the possibility of shifting a part of their supply chains from China as they seek to diversify their operations following the covid-19 outbreak

www.livemint.com

Global firms look to shift from China to India

 

[Dovah]

@Dovah Maybe we'll see a new EU headed by Russia ? /jk

This could unironically happen. Russia was on a PR overdrive before things exploded back home. #Quitaly was the sentiment at that time.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Why China will be the biggest COVID-19 loser

China’s heavy-handed tactics during the pandemic appear aimed at manufacturing an image of competence and benevolence, for both domestic and global consumption

thehill.com

Why China will be the biggest COVID-19 loser

 

[Kumata]

OTOH the social safety expenditures in European countries will make anyone dither from giving out that massive aid.

This is what is killing the Europe.. Social security

 

[no smoking]

just gave you many links about manufacturing leaving China.

Chinese themselves are sending lots of low-end, high polluted industries out of China. What does that tell you? China is moving up the value chain.

 

[nrj]

Just leaving it here

FRANCE
- Apr Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 31.5 V 37.0E (record low)
- PMI Services: 10.4 v 24.5e (record low)
- PMI Composite: 11.2 v 24.5e (record low)

GERMANY
- Apr Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 34.4 V 39.0E (record low)
- PMI Services: 15.9 v 28.0e (record low)
- PMI Composite: 17.1 v 28.5e (record low)

#EUROZONE
- Apr Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 33.6 V 38.0E (record low)
- PMI Services: 11.7 v 22.8e (record low)
- PMI Composite: 13.5 v 25.0e (record low)

 

[Assassin 2.0]