COVID-19 and Its Impact on World Politics

Dovah

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The latest Trump tweet is a nationalist's wet dream. This is Bannon on steroids.

It seems we are going to see some major upheaval in the world order once/if the current crisis subsides. Trump's suspension of immigration being one example. Do you think we are going to see a more nationalistic multi-polar world in the future? Or will globalization be back in full swing picking off all the weakened countries and consolidating like never before.

One thing to remark, EU as an entity has been found wanting in its response to Coronavirus, with countries being left to fend for themselves. Anti-EU sentiment is growng as well.

What kind of world do you envision at the end of it all? What new alliances? Is UN still relevant?

Feel free to speculate.
 

soikot banerjee

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The latest Trump tweet is a nationalist's wet dream. This is Bannon on steroids.

It seems we are going to see some major upheaval in the world order once/if the current crisis subsides. Trump's suspension of immigration being one example. Do you think we are going to see a more nationalistic multi-polar world in the future? Or will globalization be back in full swing picking off all the weakened countries and consolidating like never before.

One thing to remark, EU as an entity has been found wanting in its response to Coronavirus, with countries being left to fend for themselves. Anti-EU sentiment is growng as well.

What kind of world do you envision at the end of it all? What new alliances? Is UN still relevant?

Feel free to speculate.
1. "Trump's suspension of immigration"
Ans: Immigration will be made tougher and stricter world over including India.

2" Do you think we are going to see a more nationalistic multi-polar world in the future? Or will globalization be back in full swing picking off all the weakened countries and consolidating like never before."
Ans: The world was already moving to a right wing, patriotism based politics, COVID-19 will make that process even more quick. As far as alliances are concerned, we are going to see Cold War 2.0 of sorts with china vs others. However how do the middle eastern countries react due to oil price fluctuation will decide if its a multipolar geopolitical shift or bipolar.
Also this crisis shall be an eye opener for other countries to restart research (overt/covert) on biological warfare or entire spectrum CBN warfare which was earlier banned by UNSC conventions which brings me to the next point

3." Is UN still relevant?"
Ans With the way WHO has handled and UN just watched menance of china both these organisation which earlier were useless covertly and now proved to be incompetent publically.

Europe was the motivation of millenial wokes to push the narrative of so called "Global Citizen, borderless lands" that now when chips are down has proved to be farce and absolute garbage. So yes anti-EU centiments will grow stronger.

Next addition from my side, With the way China is poaching companies across globe including India the economies would tend to get more protectionist that makes WTO useless as well and taking world back to times of GATT.
 

prasadr14

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From India's POV,

It is now much much easier to get conseses on removing illegal Bangladeshis & rohigyas...
No political party will take the risk on supporting anti-CAA protests hence forth.
It's a political killer...

People are "secular" as long as their lives are not lost.
With China Virus, everyone will demand strict borders..

Could be blessing in disguise for us.
 

shashankk

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From India's POV,

It is now much much easier to get conseses on removing illegal Bangladeshis & rohigyas...
No political party will take the risk on supporting anti-CAA protests hence forth.
It's a political killer...

People are "secular" as long as their lives are not lost.
With China Virus, everyone will demand strict borders..

Could be blessing in disguise for us.
I seriously doubt this. No one will let their vote banks go this easily. However loss of jobs to illegals can be taken up and should be taken by non political organizations and no one will oppose it.
 

LurkerBaba

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^ Let's leave out Indian politics from this thread
---
On topic:
Many EU countries are screwed. Some of them were economically challenged and this sudden drop in tourism will push them over the edge. Will probably lead to extreme right wing politics like the one we saw in Greece.

China IMO will become stronger and not weaker. It'll exert greater influence. Many economically devastated countries will welcome that sweet Chinese money.
 

Dovah

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^ Let's leave out Indian politics from this thread
---
On topic:
Many EU countries are screwed. Some of them were economically challenged and this sudden drop in tourism will push them over the edge. Will probably lead to extreme right wing politics like the one we saw in Greece.

China IMO will become stronger and not weaker. It'll exert greater influence. Many economically devastated countries will welcome that sweet Chinese money.
It will go stronger for sure. But don't you think it will lose allies?

If EU is out of the picture, I doubt the nationalistic governments in Europe will allow Chinese investment, considering what happened in Italy is directly linked to their involvement in OBOR?

If USA turtles up and goes pre-WW1 mode, I think Chinese world order is a very real possibility. Will Japan bend the knee? Australia most likely will and Canada already has, same goes for many Scandinavian and South American countries.

Russia is the wild card I think.
 

piKacHHu

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The latest Trump tweet is a nationalist's wet dream. This is Bannon on steroids.

It seems we are going to see some major upheaval in the world order once/if the current crisis subsides. Trump's suspension of immigration being one example. Do you think we are going to see a more nationalistic multi-polar world in the future? Or will globalization be back in full swing picking off all the weakened countries and consolidating like never before.

One thing to remark, EU as an entity has been found wanting in its response to Coronavirus, with countries being left to fend for themselves. Anti-EU sentiment is growng as well.

What kind of world do you envision at the end of it all? What new alliances? Is UN still relevant?

Feel free to speculate.
The US: Withdrawal of US from the so called "Globalization" circus would continue with much faster pace if Trump gets re-elected this year. However, with Biden at helm , the same may not happen very rapidly but surely we could expect some major re-alignment with respect to China in the US establishment no matter who gets elected.
For immigration part, Trump has added a nuanced twist to it by adding "Skilled Immigration" knowing fully well that it's silicon valley or even any scientific/technological establishment could not maintain their edge without the overseas talent (especially from China, India etc.). Moreover, numbers of these skilled migrants won't affect the availability of jobs (particularly blue collar jobs) at lower end. What he doesn't want is the mass immigration that might affect his or republican's electoral apple-cart through Demographic changes. Amid Covid crisis, whose impact will linger on till election day this year, even the Democrats know they can't go against Trump over this issue on full throttle as they usually do. So,. this crisis is definitely going to impact adversely those people who are aiming to live "American Dream" through immigration.

Trump's dream to make the US a major industrial power house again will remain a pipe-dream given the high operating cost (labor,taxation etc.). It seems that his way of bilateral trade deal is an optimum solution to extract his pound of flesh from the nations it is importing most. We can kiss good bye to WTO very soon.

For Nationalism part, I feel Americans are one of the most nationalist hypocrites; they flaunt their national identity everywhere from underwear to comic superheros yet if they find some other countrymen doing it , they will disparage it and start singing praises to liberalism, freedom, globalism etc.. For them, there could only be American Nationalism on this planet; rest is Fascism. So, this is something which is quite hard wired in many "son-of-soil", hinter-landers of the US and it will not going to die any sooner. However, they will gradually experience their losing leverage while dealing with "independent" states and will impact their deal making ability globally. Its soft power image/bargaining power will bear the brunt which will lead to sporadic demonstration of Hard/military power in short engagements like in Syria/ Iran/ or elsewhere just to project its military might to the world (& of course, Marketing of their Defense Stuff ! ).

European Union: This may be the defining moment for the EU, post Brexit, to demonstrate how it could rescue its member state falling into deep recession and industrial inactivity. I feel that post Covid, the EU will emerge stronger under leadership of Germany by implementing something akin to Marshall Plan 2.0.
It's dependent on Germany that how it will weigh its National interest over political correctness on the policy issues related to Immigration and its dealing with China. The member states may also witness surge of nationalistic political movement if the Euro zone falls into deep recession which has potential to torn the EU apart. Given the strong budget books of Germany & France, I hope they will together pull EU out from impending car crash.
Relationship with the US will further go down hill and relevance of NATO will also wane slowly depending up on how EU realigns its relationship with Russia to wean it away from the solid crutches of China. Good relationship between EU and Russia will make NATO irrelevant provided the EU has to make huge compromise on its political correctness over its immediate economical and political interests.
Last but not the least, we can expect major change in the EU immigration policy in lines with the US which rewards the honest immigrant following all the due diligence over illegal immigrants. Moreover, we may also see spurt in Euro Zone population in Jan-Feb 2021 !!

India: Under the helm of Modi, we have witness 2 economic re-boots so far i.e. Demonetization and over a month long Lock-Down, and a partial re-boot in the form of GST. Given the public trust in Modi, things are well under control and outlook of Covid outbreak seems to be waning post June, 2020. This gives a much needed pause to the economic policy makers to revive the economy and make it lucrative for foreign investments particularly in manufacturing sector. These times call for No Holds Barred action in the form of labor-land reforms and Health care revolution. It's time to demonstrate to people that crowding is certainly injurious to health (as happening in Mumbai where people chose money over comfort for their day-to-day life; even they are earning more than 40-50k p.m, yet they prefer to live in crowded chawls in Andheri/Bandra). We need to de-congest cities, open more green field avenues with less regulations so that such crisis could be handled easily.
From geo-political point of view, India has now more variables to play with in a multi-polar scenarios minus China's arm twisting. China will now play an innocent kid getting caught in stealing candy; it will shift the blame, deceive, and run propaganda to neutralize the damage being done to its image so in a way it will not prick India in near future. India has also got its stand vindicated in RCEP negotiations; as the dominance of China wane in RCEP, India would attract investments primarily from Japan and S.Korea for manufacturing. The service sector is expected reel under pressure for 3 quarters till the effect of rescue packages from the US, the EU & others took some shape to jack up consumer sentiments.
 

LurkerBaba

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It will go stronger for sure. But don't you think it will lose allies?

If EU is out of the picture, I doubt the nationalistic governments in Europe will allow Chinese investment, considering what happened in Italy is directly linked to their involvement in OBOR?

If USA turtles up and goes pre-WW1 mode, I think Chinese world order is a very real possibility. Will Japan bend the knee? Australia most likely will and Canada already has, same goes for many Scandinavian and South American countries.

Russia is the wild card I think.
All the nationalism will be for local consumption. Pakistan style. They'll gladly welcome Chinese money
US going pre-WW1 is a bit of a hyperbole.
 

LurkerBaba

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The calls to downsize China from global supply chains do not hold much water considering the extent to which China has embedded itself at several levels – the technological supply chains and more strategically, its investments in companies across the world in different technology sectors including aerospace."
Agree here. People imagining that manufacturing will suddenly flock to India or elsewhere is premature. It won't be easy

 

Bhadra

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The Indian scenarios and assessments are generally carried out keeping "Political Stability" as the single largest factor. The US and Western Think Tanks and Analysts give that factor lot of importance for Investment. I heard heard Sagarika Ghosh many times threatening Modi about Foreign Investment going away if Churches and Christians are in danger. Ok that was one way of threatening.

Earlier the "political stability" scenarios revolved around the degree of control Sonia Gandhi would be able to exercise over various actor. Now the scenario shifts to the amount of "political Control" and influence Narendra Modi would be able to exercise and provide stability and continuity to policies and economic system. That looks positive and India can expect better inflow of FDI.

However, there is no shortage of money in the system. Look at the amount that has been siphoned off by the big wigs under political patronage. India unfortunately could not develop anything, any industry worthwhile without Political and bureaucratic patronage. Banks are full of money, lending rates are so low, ease of business is good - so the ground for Industrial and economic development is fertile.

Let us see what Corona aftermath brings to us as positive development.
 

ArgonPrime

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^ Let's leave out Indian politics from this thread
---
On topic:
Many EU countries are screwed. Some of them were economically challenged and this sudden drop in tourism will push them over the edge. Will probably lead to extreme right wing politics like the one we saw in Greece.

China IMO will become stronger and not weaker. It'll exert greater influence. Many economically devastated countries will welcome that sweet Chinese money.
And will end up getting crushed under the weight of the interest and become slaves of the CPC in the end. That's how it goes.
 

LurkerBaba

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Turns out that tourism was around 13.5% of Italy's GDP pre-covid19. This will hit them pretty hard. The EU doesn't have the economic wherewithal to save these economies. Probably end of the European Union ?


@Dovah Maybe we'll see a new EU headed by Russia ? :troll: /jk
 

Srinivas_K

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Chinese Govt. lost what ever good will it has there earlier, now west will think twice on Chinese moves and ventures in their countries.

chinese manufacturing advantage is fading,Covid 19 only fastened the process, not only manufacturing from China will shift but things become tough for Chinese w.r.t BRI.
West will retain their edge in a slow recovery might take 2 to 2 and half years.

India will get a good number of manufacturing companies from China , other countries include USA, Vietnam, Bangladesh,etc.

There will be change in labour laws, taxation and FDI rules in India.
The stress on economy in India is temporary, once stimulus is injected coupled with big infra projects and manufacturing. we will recover and catch up double digit growth once again, towards 5 trillion growth.

politically there won’t be many changes as of now, it is a gradual process. We(India) will carve out a high seat for ourselves for sure.
 
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Agree here. People imagining that manufacturing will suddenly flock to India or elsewhere is premature. It won't be easy

Any new product development by many countries will not have china supply chain. Old products may
continue for a few years until they are phased out. So it may not be dramatic but there is a worldwide
effort to avoid chinese supply chain and manufacturing at all cost. Many consumers will also avoid anything
that has a MADE IN CHINA label.

1587480521157.png
 

ezsasa

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can’t say about long term, but in medium term I don’t think China will be impacted much other than because of low global demand.

I don’t see any aggressive moves against China by any country, academics might be talking in hushed tones but I don’t see a lot of academics talking openly about moving supply chains out of China.

Right now it’s just trump & CO talking about China and no one else.

it took atleast two decades of academic & political lobbying to move global supply chains to China, reversal won’t be that easy.
 
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can’t say about long term, but in medium term I don’t think China will be impacted much other than because of low global demand.

I don’t see any aggressive moves against China by any country, academics might be talking in hushed tones but I don’t see a lot of academics talking openly about moving supply chains out of China.

Right now it’s just trump & CO talking about China and no one else.

it took atleast two decades of academic & political lobbying to move global supply chains to China, reversal won’t be that easy.
it is being discussed:


Companies will shift supply chains away from China after coronavirus crisis, Mark Mobius predicts


Momentum grows to change medical supply chain from China



After coronavirus the 'Made in China' supply chain needs to go
 

ezsasa

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it is being discussed:


Companies will shift supply chains away from China after coronavirus crisis, Mark Mobius predicts


Momentum grows to change medical supply chain from China



After coronavirus the 'Made in China' supply chain needs to go
I’ve read those, it’s still at a sales pitch stage, many large investors have to buy in to this argument. It’s too early.

much of it depends on trump winning 2020 elections, if trump looses everything is back to normal.
 
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I’ve read those, it’s still at a sales pitch stage, many large investors have to buy in to this argument. It’s too early.

much of it depends on trump winning 2020 elections, if trump looses everything is back to normal.
It also depends on consumer sentiment . In USA it heavily anti-chinese. manufucturers can
make in china. Consumers can avoid and buy US made or elsewhere. Imo Mexico will get
a lot of manufacturing leaving China.
 

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