Civil war in Ukraine

[Ray]

@Ray, As some Europeans feel nervous about Russia, Russians feel nervous about NATO.

Russia being much smaller in resources compared to NATO is sure to feel threatened. This happens to every such case when a small country is pitted against a large country.

Honestly I do not care about Yanukovych. It was up to Ukrainians to keep him or dump him. But it should have happened in a democratic way rather than by mob action.

The events show that both sides spurn democracy. The only creed in Ukraine is autocracy which shows up plenty.

The profusion of violence in the society makes it very difficult to have a progressive and inclusive government.

I respect @jouni but I totally disagree that Russia has any plans against Scandinavia or Europe is threatened by Russia.

Russia has a genuine stake in Ukraine, and the West should respect that. If West wants to strike at the roots of Russia, then there is no hope of peace.

We all feel threatened in our own neighbourhood and so our actions are natural, but not rational if one sits back and thinks.

But then that is the world.

Good that we are respecting each others opinion on this forum.

Makes my job easier and comfortable to sit back and have a smoke (Govt mandatory warning:Smoking is Injurious to health)

 

[jouni]

I am from Kolkata.

I am sure you feel that I have hit you on he head with a wooden club!

Sweden is a real neutral state?

Check this out from Euronews.




Sweden becomes first EU country to recognise the Palestinian State | euronews, world news

I would think that a really neutral nation should not take sides on international disputes.

Actually when I read that news in the Indian press, I was thunderstruck.

In India, the jury is divided about the Israel Palestinian dispute.

It is easy for Sweden to be "neutral" and do all these high profile stunts, if the war comes they will fight to the last Finn. I am not expecting any problems in Scandinavia, my opinion was totally speculative. We have so much different views on so many issues, that sometimes we misunderstand each other. For example, I do not see that west is "taking Ukraine"", Ukraine is just wanting to develop and wants to aim high: to western European living standards, which are the highest in the world. For some reason unfathomable to me Russia cant tolerate it and has created this whole mess. ( no need to answer, I already know your opinion, not yours personally @Ray, sir, but the opinion of Indian majority in this board.)

 

[jouni]

@Ray, As some Europeans feel nervous about Russia, Russians feel nervous about NATO.

Russia being much smaller in resources compared to NATO is sure to feel threatened. This happens to every such case when a small country is pitted against a large country.

Honestly I do not care about Yanukovych. It was up to Ukrainians to keep him or dump him. But it should have happened in a democratic way rather than by mob action.

The events show that both sides spurn democracy. The only creed in Ukraine is autocracy which shows up plenty.

The profusion of violence in the society makes it very difficult to have a progressive and inclusive government.

I respect @jouni but I totally disagree that Russia has any plans against Scandinavia or Europe is threatened by Russia.

Russia has a genuine stake in Ukraine, and the West should respect that. If West wants to strike at the roots of Russia, then there is no hope of peace.

This Russia being afraid of Europe attacking her has no ground in reality. Look at the armies of Europe, they are nonexistent. Honestly, in Europe was a consensus that traditional warfare in the continent is a thing of the past. All armies were diminished to a size of rapid action force, which could take part in international operations. Still Russia is trumpeting that "Nato" is building forces if few hundred soldiers practice in Lithuania.

Russians are not stupid, so we have to ask why are they building this imaginary threat scenario. My opinion is that it is for internal politics reasons. It is 25 years from the fall of SU, still Russia is lacking behind in many human development index factors. Those eastern European countries that joined EU has benefited from EU funds and technology in developing their countries.

To hide from population this fact Putin and Russian government have to create 1. Outside enemy, 2. Unrest abroad, so they have done. Also some fractions of Ukraine has jumped on board ( nationalist or right wing fractions ) and so we have this mess. This have very little of anything to do with US or EU "threatening Russia".

As for my posts, I guess I sometimes get too much carried away with Finnish tradition of bringing humor and sarcasm along, sorry for that.

 

[sgarg]

@jouni, You do have a point, but honestly EU and NATO have been hyperactive against Russia in this conflict.

So while you may harp on your 'peacefulness' and 'kindness', none of that have shown up so far.

The aggressive attitude of USA and EU is playing to the fears of Russia.

Mind you, Russia is still a serious nuclear power even if it lacks in human development or wealth.

Russia still has the power to reduce 100s of European cities to a rubble. I would not advise the kind of economic warfare that EU is fighting against Russia.

There is only talking at, not talking to in case of Russia. NATO/EU are basically saying to Russia - there is no negotiation, you capitulate. Russia refuses to capitulate.

Compare this with China which is USA's and EU's "most favored trading partner" despite horrible record of internal repression.

 

[jouni]

@jouni, You do have a point, but honestly EU and NATO have been hyperactive against Russia in this conflict.

So while you may harp on your 'peacefulness' and 'kindness', none of that have shown up so far.

The aggressive attitude of USA and EU is playing to the fears of Russia.

Mind you, Russia is still a serious nuclear power even if it lacks in human development or wealth.

Russia still has the power to reduce 100s of European cities to a rubble. I would not advise the kind of economic warfare that EU is fighting against Russia.

There is only talking at, not talking to in case of Russia. NATO/EU are basically saying to Russia - there is no negotiation, you capitulate. Russia refuses to capitulate.

Compare this with China which is USA's and EU's "most favored trading partner" despite horrible record of internal repression.

I am sure that when Russia admits that annexing Crimea and supporting separatism in Ukraine is against international agreements, path to lift the sanctions will open. Everybody wants Russia to be a respected member of international community.

 

[pmaitra]

I am sure that when Russia admits that annexing Crimea and supporting separatism in Ukraine is against international agreements, path to lift the sanctions will open. Everybody wants Russia to be a respected member of international community.

Crimea voted in a referendum to accede to the Russian Federation. The UN Charter, Article 1, Clause 2, explicitly recognizes self determination, which was the Crimean Referendum.

To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace;

Source: Charter of the United Nations: Chapter I: Purposes and Principles

So your claim of Crimea's "annexation" being against international agreement stands proven wrong.

 

[jouni]

Crimea voted in a referendum to accede to the Russian Federation. The UN Charter, Article 1, Clause 2, explicitly recognizes self determination, which was the Crimean Referendum.


Source: Charter of the United Nations: Chapter I: Purposes and Principles

So your claim of Crimea's "annexation" being against international agreement stands proven wrong.

Normally referendums are held by the nation itself, not by neighbouring nation...LOL

 

[pmaitra]

Normally referendums are held by the nation itself, not by neighbouring nation...LOL

Referendum was help by the people of Crimea, not by people from a neighbouring nation.

If I were you, I'd accept the UN Charter that I mentioned regarding "self determination." It takes courage to admit one's mistake, but in the long run, it earns the trust of others.

 

[jouni]

Referendum was help by the people of Crimea, not by people from a neighbouring nation.

If I were you, I'd accept the UN Charter that I mentioned regarding "self determination." It takes courage to admit one's mistake, but in the long run, it earns the trust of others.

Interview: John Bellinger III on Why the Crimean Referendum Is Illegitimate - Council on Foreign Relations

 

[pmaitra]

@jouni, the existence of Ukraine itself is illegitimate.

If Crimea's secession from Ukraine is illegitimate, then Ukraine secession from USSR is also illegitimate, especially after the USSR referendum called for preserving the Union.

You can't have one rule your way, and another rule the other way.

I am not going to waste my valuable time reading that article by Bellinger, but others might be interested.

 

[jouni]

@jouni, the existence of Ukraine itself is illegitimate.

If Crimea's secession from Ukraine is illegitimate, then Ukraine secession from USSR is also illegitimate, especially after the USSR referendum called for preserving the Union.

You can't have one rule your way, and another rule the other way.

I am not going to waste my valuable time reading that article by Bellinger, but others might be interested.

Glad to see you come to your senses.

 

[pmaitra]

Glad to see you come to your senses.

Thank you for finally seeing sense in the hypothesis that Ukraine is not really a nation, but a part of Russia. Putin said something very similar to Bush.

 

[jouni]

rison:

Thank you for finally seeing sense in the hypothesis that Ukraine is not really a nation, but a part of Russia. Putin said something very similar to Bush.

Well, then they have something to talk about when they meet in Hague.

 

[pmaitra]

2 teens killed, 4 injured in shelling nr Donetsk school, E. Ukraine

Two schoolchildren were killed and four injured as an artillery shell hit a stadium in front of a school in the Eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, local self-defense forces said.

 

[sgarg]

I am sure that when Russia admits that annexing Crimea and supporting separatism in Ukraine is against international agreements, path to lift the sanctions will open. Everybody wants Russia to be a respected member of international community.

I can tell you what will happen due to the foolishness of EU.

1. China will get Russian oil and gas. This will make China less dependent on middle-east, and its supplies in wartime will be ensured.
2. China will get the remaining Russian military technology that it does not already have.
3. China will get a large economic stake in Russia, thus negating European influence.
4. Ukraine will become wasteland in next three to four years due to constant war.

 

[sgarg]

@jouni, the existence of Ukraine itself is illegitimate.

If Crimea's secession from Ukraine is illegitimate, then Ukraine secession from USSR is also illegitimate, especially after the USSR referendum called for preserving the Union.

You can't have one rule your way, and another rule the other way.

I am not going to waste my valuable time reading that article by Bellinger, but others might be interested.

I think Russia does not question the right of Ukraine to exist. Russia's viewpoint is about protection of Russian speaking people and political rights.

 

[sgarg]

Normally referendums are held by the nation itself, not by neighbouring nation...LOL

What you mean by "normally". How can a nation under civil war carry out a referendum. There will be presence of outside forces.

An election always happens under security. USA and Europe are different type of societies. You have security. Look at India. India has to make heavy arrangement of security for each election. This is the reason elections cannot take place simultaneously throughout the country.

The security situation is each country is different.

 

[pmaitra]

I think Russia does not question the right of Ukraine to exist. Russia's viewpoint is about protection of Russian speaking people and political rights.

That is Russia's official position. Russia wants, or at least wanted, a federalized and a neutral Ukraine. However, after whatever has happened in the past several months, Russia might actually want to control all the territories up to Zhitomir, and kick Lvov and its periphery out to fend for itself.

 

[pmaitra]

Volunteers who have been in a combat zone, also note that the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine not just send in the siloviki overdue pilchards, barley with beetles, as well as a blank for canned soup with worms.

Source: Украинских силовиков кормят кашей с жуками и испорченными консервами - Первый по срочным новостям — LIFE | NEWS

 

[Ray]

Let me play the Devil's Advocate and bring some logic into the debate with less of emotions making the issue murkier.

For centuries the Poles have been taught from early childhood on that Germans were evil and ought to be fought whenever there was a promise of success. Hate on such a scale, as it was and still is promoted in Poland today against her westerly neighbor, eventually leads to a chauvinism that knows few constraints.

"Póki swiat swiatem, Polak Niemcowi nie bedzie bratem." This is a Polish proverb, and translated into English it means: "As long as the world will exist, the Pole will never be the German's brother."

One year later, in 1990, the then Polish Prime Minister Lech Walesa made his feelings towards his German neighbors publicly known: "I do not even shrink from a statement that is not going to make me popular in Germany: if the Germans destabilize Europe anew, in some way or other, then partition is no longer what will have to be resorted to, but rather that country will have to be erased from the map, pure and simple. East and West have at their disposal the advanced technology necessary to carry this verdict out."3

More at
(The Unknown History of the German-Polish Conflict in 1939: a Brief Synopsis.)

Now, if this is the sentiments of the Polish people in general and including Lech Walesa, the Prime Minster of Poland, against Germany after Poland came into the Western Bloc of which Germany is an important partner, then it indicates the historical apprehension, fear and distaste the Poles have towards Germans.

Therefore, it would be natural that the Russians too would display the same apprehension, fear and distaste for the West, given the Cold War history and what was published in Foreign Affair Magazine titled "A Broken Promise?
What the West Really Told Moscow About NATO Expansion".

Russian diplomats regularly assert that Washington made just such a promise in exchange for the Soviet troop withdrawal from East Germany -- and then betrayed that promise as NATO added 12 eastern European countries in three subsequent rounds of enlargement. Writing in this magazine earlier this year, the Russian foreign policy thinker Alexander Lukin accused successive U.S. presidents of "forgetting the promises made by Western leaders to Mikhail Gorbachev after the unification of Germany -- most notably that they would not expand NATO eastward."
Mary Elise Sarotte | The Real Story Behind NATO Expansion | Foreign Affairs

Therefore, what has happened in Eastern Europe, Georgia, what is happening in Ukraine is sure to ring alarm bells and apprehension in Russia.

The same way it rang alarm bells for the US when the USSR started arming Cuba with AD Missiles.

Therefore, it is only natural that Russia is apprehensive of the Western designs.

And Ukraine is keen to join the West for protection of its integrity before it gets 'gobbled up' by a Russia breathing down its neck.

Geopolitics and Geostrategy.