Yeah, this isn't posturing or exercise anymore.
If they're seriously calling up reserves for training (Idk how it works over there but if the frequency of training is being increased to be on par with active soldiers, the cost probably doesn't justify a mere exercise or sabre rattling session), I'd say it's at least going to be a wholly Biden-approved "minor incursion" at the very least.
At it's worst, we might see the final trigger to worldwide chaos, war and misery.
Let's hope this doesn't turn into a war.
It'll result in a massive number of senseless deaths on both sides. Doesn't matter who wins.
Edit: Tune in here for Biden's statement regarding Ukraine today (19 February 2022) -