Civil war in Ukraine

[Optimistic Nihilist]

To be honest, Ukraine is looking really bad. From an attackers POV, Russians have so many avenues that its impossible for Ukraine to defend. Belarus, Moldova, Crimea, Long Russian border, beach landings. Ukraine wont be able to use Defenders advantage much.

And if anyone is hoping for guerilla warfare, just know that smuggling weapons to Ukraine will be much harder than Afghanistan- It is surrounded by enemy countries.

Plus, now that the US has declared that their response will be proportional to the size of the invasion, it really won't get complicated. Just like 2014, when Russia stops at the Dnieper River and only goes up till Kyiv, the only thing the West will do is bring on more sanctions. They would only get seriously involved if Russia advances towards Western Ukraine, but I don't think that Russia has any interest in that. So, it's definitely not looking good for Ukraine.

Plus, completely unlike Afghanistan, there is no bloodthirsty uncompromising tribalism in Ukraine, so there won't be any prolonged resistance or major guerrilla war. The whole thing will last a month at most.

The entire thing is so pointless. The whole thing can be avoided if America simply says that it will not vote to accept Ukraine in NATO when the time comes and this whole crisis will be averted, but again there's no money to be made through that route, so that's not happening.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

Biden says he won't cave to Putin's demand that Ukraine never joins NATO, but he notes that the "likelihood that Ukraine is going to join NATO in the near term is not very likely".

So unnecessarily dumb.

 

[Jimih]

Biden says he won't cave to Putin's demand that Ukraine never joins NATO, but he notes that the "likelihood that Ukraine is going to join NATO in the near term is not very likely".

So unnecessarily dumb.

Biden now openly admits that USA cannot deter Russia's Ukraine invasion, which he said is likely and will be met with "sanctions".

But by projecting this kind of weakness, Biden could also signal Xi Jinping to try and capture Taiwan without any resistance.

 

[warmachine541]

Biden now openly admits that USA cannot deter Russia's Ukraine invasion, which he said is likely and will be met with "sanctions".

But by projecting this kind of weakness, Biden could also signal Xi Jinping to try and capture Taiwan without any resistance.

Russia invading Ukraine.
China invading Taiwan.
North Korea testing more missiles.
Iran backed Houthi's launching drone strikes on UAE and destabilizing the middle east.

Trump was so much better.

 

[BabaKhalbali]

US briefs India on Russia's military 'build-up' on Ukraine border

The United States has briefed India on Russian military "build-up" on Ukraine's border even as the situation in eastern Europe remains on the brink. In a telephonic conversation with India's foreign secretary Harsh Shringla on Wednesday, US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman spoke on a...

www.wionews.com

 

[Jimih]

Russia invading Ukraine.
China invading Taiwan.
North Korea testing more missiles.
Iran backed Houthi's launching drone strikes on UAE and destabilizing the middle east.

Trump was so much better.

Trump's only policy was "Make Israel Great Again"

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Latest chatter:

The seventh military transport aircraft C-17A Globemaster III of the Royal Air Force of Britain left the Brize Norton airbase and headed for Kiev.

On board are NLAW anti-tank missile systems, more than 1,300 of which have already been transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Also:

View attachment 132700

US Navy P8 Poseidon AE6834 active off the coast of Crimea.

US routing anti tank and shoulder fired anti air weapons via UK..
But they wont be able to stop a Russian Blitz, as fixed wing aircraft and Russian artillery and flame throwers, will obliterate Ukranian infantry, with only a few losses, and operate beyond the range of anti tank and shoulder fired air defence missiles..
These weapons will end up with Russia, which they would use to foster insurgency in Baltic states..

 

[Shashank Nayak]

So from the Russian pov the option of invasion seems NOT the best not because of sanctions but because of the possibility of large victims, refugees, large financial costs. Can anyone say what profit Russia will get in return for this that will cover all this?

The ultimate aim of the US is to dismantle Russia, and get rid of it, and turning Ukraine into an anti Russian NATO member is part of the plan.. Ukraine is already an anti russian state, with NATO weapons.. So, occupying eastern Ukraine, and controlling Ukrainian costline will give Russia strategic depth..
Russia today has something it never had in the Cold war.. In the cold war, China was hostile to Russia.. In fact USSR was totally surrounded by hostile countries, but today, China is the second biggest economy and an alternative market for Russia, with China already facing a hostile US..
The costs of inaction, are way greater for Russia, thancthe costs of Action.. Whether Russia has the appetite for it, is another question

 

[Flash12]

The ultimate aim of the US is to dismantle Russia, and get rid of it, and turning Ukraine into an anti Russian NATO member is part of the plan.. Ukraine is already an anti russian state, with NATO weapons.. So, occupying eastern Ukraine, and controlling Ukrainian costline will give Russia strategic depth..
Russia today has something it never had in the Cold war.. In the cold war, China was hostile to Russia.. In fact USSR was totally surrounded by hostile countries, but today, China is the second biggest economy and an alternative market for Russia, with China already facing a hostile US..
The costs of inaction, are way greater for Russia, thancthe costs of Action.. Whether Russia has the appetite for it, is another question

I do not think that the price of inaction will be higher than the price of an invasion of Ukraine. Yes, and Russia is not going to be inactive. I think the leadership of the country has many ways to force the West to move away from the Russian borders. The threat to Russia is only the possible deployment of missile systems at the borders. In extreme cases, when trying to deploy them in Ukraine, they can be bombed.

 

[Flash12]

Western media today:

Hush little baby don’t say a word
And never mind that noise you heard
It’s just the Putin under your bed
In your closet in your head...

 

[JBH22]

Western media today:

Hush little baby don’t say a word
And never mind that noise you heard
It’s just the Putin under your bed
In your closet in your head...

Can you really hold on Ukraine without high cost?
It seems a daunting task, not because of Ukraine army, but risk of getting sucked in Guerilla warfare coupled with more sanctions.
USA will not be sending private ramirez to save Andriy in Ukraine.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

Biden now openly admits that USA cannot deter Russia's Ukraine invasion, which he said is likely and will be met with "sanctions".

But by projecting this kind of weakness, Biden could also signal Xi Jinping to try and capture Taiwan without any resistance.

Taiwan is a bit more important than Ukraine, for sure. But yeah, China will definitely be emboldened. Even as far as Taiwan is concerned, the USA does not have any obligation to protect it.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

US routing anti tank and shoulder fired anti air weapons via UK..
But they wont be able to stop a Russian Blitz, as fixed wing aircraft and Russian artillery and flame throwers, will obliterate Ukranian infantry, with only a few losses, and operate beyond the range of anti tank and shoulder fired air defence missiles..
These weapons will end up with Russia, which they would use to foster insurgency in Baltic states..

Precisely, which is why this makes no sense. What is the point of sending all these weapons if they ultimately end up in the hands of the Ruskies? Didn't they already see this play out in Afghanistan?

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

The Kremlin will not comment on the draft appeal of the State Duma to the President regarding the recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics until the document is adopted by the parliament, said the press secretary of the head of the Russian state Dmitry Peskov.

 

[mist_consecutive]

@Optimistic Nihilist can you post your source (news article/tweet) along with the update ?

 

[Flash12]

Can you really hold on Ukraine without high cost?
It seems a daunting task, not because of Ukraine army, but risk of getting sucked in Guerilla warfare coupled with more sanctions.
USA will not be sending private ramirez to save Andriy in Ukraine.

I just wrote about this, that in my opinion Putin has no plans to seize Ukraine. Nobody knows Putin's real plans, but he is known to be a cautious and pragmatic person. And the capture of Ukraine is very costly with a small profit.
It is often written that Putin wants to restore the USSR, but it was Putin who said, "who does not regret the collapse of the USSR has no heart. And the one who wants to restore it in its previous form has no head."

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

U.S. approves allied weapons shipments to Ukraine as worries mount

Baltic NATO allies Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia can now transfer American-made lethal weapons such as anti-armor and ground-to-air missiles to Ukraine.

www.politico.com

"The State Department has given the go-ahead for three NATO allies to rush anti-armor missiles and other U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine, a sign of renewed urgency among Western allies over the threat of a multi-front invasion by Russian forces.

The requests from Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were received in recent weeks, and the last of the three was approved Wednesday after being received the night before, according to an administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an issue that hasn't been announced."

As part of the agreement (export control rules) with the United States on the transfer of military products, Estonia is going to supply Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank systems, and Lithuania with Stinger man-portable air defense systems.

 

[BabaKhalbali]

According to the RIA news agency, the Russian Navy has announced several maneuvers for January and February. Accordingly, the missions in the Atlantic, Arctic, Pacific and Mediterranean are planned.

 

[Akim]

https://d2p68frzdak43d.cloudfront.n...2022/01/19/asset-4570282-1642594092951437.mp4
........................................................................................

 

[JBH22]

I just wrote about this, that in my opinion Putin has no plans to seize Ukraine. Nobody knows Putin's real plans, but he is known to be a cautious and pragmatic person. And the capture of Ukraine is very costly with a small profit.
It is often written that Putin wants to restore the USSR, but it was Putin who said, "who does not regret the collapse of the USSR has no heart. And the one who wants to restore it in its previous form has no head."

Yes western propaganda like to misquote him on his so called regret for USSR. Having said that, assuming Russia has to go in Ukraine.
What is the feasibility of imposing:
1. Complete air blockade
2. Impact of Javelin on Russian tank formations
3. Turkish drones I don't see much impact since numbers low and Russian air defence is good.
4. Availability of manpads posing threat to Helicopter and low level flying aircraft.