Moving the supply chain away from China.
China has diligently built a supply chain system for parts and finished products over the past 15 years. $2 trillion of FDI was used by them to construct factories and then dominate manufacturing. Flush with cash they began to build a useless BRI projects and lent money to countries to build their infrastructure, etc. All this, to dominate trade and supply chain system.
Unfortunately, the Americans and the Europeans fell victim to this cleverly designed supply system. Chinese had a significant trade surplus and cash in 20 years. With the cash, they began to build economic globalization with them at the center. Some projects included as I said above BRI, bullet trains, empty office towers, unused roads & bridges and residential cities which most of these are empty today.
Then came the hard-liner Trump to power in the US. He started the first trade war with China to encourage local manufacture which previously China had taken away, (thanks to presidents, Clinton, Bush (Jr) and Obama).
Despite their displeasure, China maintained their dominance in supply chain economics. For this, they had encouragement from Wall Street, which purely equated profits without considering quality & Security.
The next shock to China was Covid-19. Everybody believes that this horrible disease is a Chinese invention which was accidentally released to humans. The rest of the world was in pain for two years before vaccines and precautions helped. The Chinese claimed to be unaffected by it. Then two years later it broke open widely in China. It could not be covered up. China imposed draconian measures to control it. Everything was shut down and people were virtually imprisoned in their homes.
The economic impact of the Chinese Covid shutdown was significant. Since the factories closed, they were unable to produce goods that the outside world needed, resulting in a dramatic impact on the supply chain. The US and the Europe began to look elsewhere for supply. A lot of companies, decided to move out of China. Others have stayed but are considering exiting.
Chinese belligerence has created another issue, which is the invasion of Taiwan. This America did not like or appreciate. America ran with aid to Taiwan and strengthened its military posture in the Indo-Pacific. That military build up, discouraged Chinese and to-date, no invasion has taken place.
Angry President Biden enacted a law to prevent China to get a toehold in computer chip manufacture. Technology exports, investments and exports of high-end chips into China have been banned. That was the beginning of the second trade war after Trump's first. Chinese retaliated by banning the export of Gallium and Germanium from China without a license.
Although the trade war has not been fully unleashed, it is moving towards the same direction.
Hence, what happens to the supply chain that China has so cleverly built. ……. Well, not everything, but a lot of them have to move out.
Although the Chinese have not strongly responded to it, yet they are unable to deter companies moving out. Many multinationals are beginning to move to India, Vietnam and elsewhere in South east Asia. Today, I must say these moves are tiny as compared to the total Chinese manufacturing, but they are part of a bit by bit move out of China.
In addition, discouraged by Chinese belligerence, America has started to build its own manufacturing base which they had lost to China, 20 years back. This manufacturing renaissance in America is detrimental to Chinese interests. The Biden administration is adding impetus to it by making capital available with emphasis on small and medium-sized industries. New technologies and manufacturing processes will provide more sustainable and better quality supply chain products.
That is bad news for China.