Faced with many difficulties, China's economy may decelerate sharply

VivaVietnamm

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China's economy is facing challenges from all sides: a slumping property market, an energy crisis, consumer pessimism, and soaring raw material prices...

The series of data that the government will release next Monday will show how bad the story is. Economists polled by Bloomberg news forecast China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be only 5% in the third quarter of this year, from the 7.9% increase achieved in the second quarter.

The outlook for the world's second-largest economy has deteriorated in recent months, as the real estate market has become precarious because of the Evergrande debt crisis, alongside a widespread power outage that has caused major disruptions to the economy. The factory must cut operations or suspend operations. Economists have simultaneously lowered their forecast for China's economic growth this year, saying that this deceleration could have a global impact.

"China's third-quarter growth is not an optimistic picture, especially since the low-base effect has gradually worn off," said Liu Peiqian, an economist at Natwest Markets in Singapore. “In the last quarter, the Chinese government prioritized long-term reform goals and reduced focus on short-term growth targets.

REAL ESTATE MARKET DOWN




Evergrande’s Ghost Cities

Beijing has gradually tightened restrictions on the real estate market to prevent financial risks, causing a sharp decline in construction activity and exacerbating a liquidity crisis at real estate giant Evergrande. . The Evergrande debt crisis has also had a significant impact on China's real estate industry in general. Total sales of China's 100 property developers fell 36% year-on-year in September, which is usually the peak period for annual home sales. From there, the effect is said to be able to spread throughout the economy because according to Goldman Sachs estimates, the real estate industry and related fields account for about a quarter of China's GDP. With cash flow tightening, Chinese real estate companies may have to cut back on new investment. Real estate investment growth may slow to 9.5% in the first nine months of this year from a year earlier, from 10.9% in August, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. close.

ELECTRICITY CRISIS

Factories in China were forced to cut production due to power shortages from the second half of September, sending the purchasing managers' index (PMI) below 50 for the first time since Covid-19 became pandemic last year, a sign that the manufacturing industry is shrinking instead of growing. However, strong export data and increased electricity consumption in September suggest that the impact of the power shortage crisis on industrial production can be diverse. Power consumption in the processing industry increased 6% year-on-year, indicating industrial production remains strong despite the power shortage, Goldman Sachs analysts said. However, according to this report, electricity consumption data can be volatile and may deviate from industrial production trends. Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast China's industrial output growth in September to fall to 3.9% year-on-year in September, matching the growth rate of 2020.

CAUTION CONSUMERS

The Delta variant has been causing outbreaks in China since mid-July. Authorities had to take drastic measures to control the spread, even if only a few cases were detected. because China is pursuing a strategy to eliminate Covid. This has a significant impact on consumption. At the end of August, localities in China began to relax anti-epidemic measures, so retail sales improved in September. According to the survey results of purchasing managers (PMI), service activities September also recovered stronger than expected. Experts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast China's retail sales to grow 3.5% in September, compared with a 2.5% increase in August.

EXPORTS STILL GROWING STRONGLY

In September, China's dollar-denominated exports rose 28.1 percent year-on-year to a record $305.7 billion, customs data released on October 13 showed. This increase far exceeded the forecast of 21.5% increase that analysts made earlier. Export growth reached 17.6%, lower than the forecast of 20.9%, bringing the trade surplus to USD 66.8 billion. Strong export growth is a bright spot in China's bad news economy. Demand for Chinese goods in advanced economies is still strong, in part because importers have had to move orders out of some other countries hit hard by Covid-19 like Vietnam. Importers are also trying to speed up orders from China to prepare for the year-end shopping season, because of concerns about bottlenecks in the global supply chain. A sharp increase in the trade surplus is one reason for the yuan's continued appreciation this year, despite the deteriorating outlook for China's economic growth. The yuan's uptrend may have started to worry Chinese policymakers, as demonstrated by the Central Bank of China (PBOC) on October 14 setting a lower reference rate. forecast, causing the renminbi to depreciate from a 4-month high.

 

Hari Sud

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Start of the end of China's domination of the supply chain.


The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic with China at its centre, either intentionally or accidentally in 2020, has emerged as a boon to China's trade and economic dominance. Its rapid spread in most parts of the world has provided China a greater outlet for its products. When most of the world was closed to stop the spread of the virus, China was apparently open for business. Then the world started to recover. The vaccines did their part and extraordinary precautions were taken to allow the world to control the pandemic. By July or August of 2021, sufficient progress had been made for the world to recover.

What was unknown at the time was the impact of pandemic on China itself. Their vaccines were 50% effective and guess work was that Chinese are as badly impacted by the virus as others. Yet they kept their factories humming for exports.

There are two aspects of their exports 1). Merchandise exports. 2). Exports of supply chain intermediaries. There are other aspects of Chinese perfidy, that include labour exports for building and construction (BRI and CPEC roads), ports and container terminal construction for willing countries in Asia Pacific. Chinese tell us that they continued uninterrupted as they pretended that the Covid -19 virus had not impacted China…..But is that the truth?

Also, since 1999, the Chinese have been spending huge sums of money on infrastructure building with brand new roads, people housing, dams and water works to enhance urban lifestyle and increase food production etc…. etc. This was all financed by export revenues and U.S. FDI (about $1 trillion over 10 years). On the surface, it seemed amazing. Their gleaming cities, brand new skyscrapers, new roads and new everything made them the envy of the rest of the underdeveloped world. The Chinese even subsidized city tours of China for the tourists to come and see. The returning tourists saw it all on the surface, but at the bottom of the interior was a decay that the communist government had covered up. It was a very poor quality hasty build devoid of any quality.

As the world bounced back from the shock of the pandemic in July or August 2021, the Chinese economy started to rot.

Over the past 20 years, the Chinese propaganda machine has spent about $10 billion a year to bribe the media around the world to get their positive views across. Actually, they were successful. Everybody had a positive opinion about China. Then came the bad news……

First bad news in September 2021, was loan default of a very big Chinese real estate company with $300 billion loans which stayed unpaid. Then came the news of a huge power shortage which had blacked out half of China’s industrial heartland. Since there was no power, hence export factories suffered production losses. The ever dependent West found its shelves with a lesser and lesser variety of consumer products. Although the consumer after pandemic was not in a spending mood, they realized that certain everyday items like cars and other industrial products assembled locally of Chinese parts are in short supply. In fact car assembly lines which use computer chips have stopped production altogether……what a mess! Many other products have gone down the same path. The net impact was that Chinese made fake products appeared in the market, ruining the product reputation.

Inside China, excessive rainfall has devastated rural areas. Roads, bridges, small dams, housing, etc. were washed away, adding to the misery of over ambitious Communist government. We only hear from the people’s report, but the Chinese government kept mum.

On top of that since 2008, Chinese with excessive cash at their disposal began a huge military buildup. Their main aim, to dominate the world. In 2020, they picked up a military fight with India in the Himalayas inhospitable land. This year, they are making a serious effort to grab Taiwan back to Chinese rule. The success of these two misadventures is uncertain because India presented an iron fist and to save Taiwan, world powers (USA) are standing by. The Chinese have not relented to these claims.

Hence, where do we stand opposite Chinese ambitions. ….. Their "supply side" has been disrupted as Western consumers buy fewer Chinese products. The Pandemic has ruined their reputation at the cash counter.

With the foregoing, the world’s knowledge of impeding multiple bankruptcies and no power to run the factories has forced them to develop an alternative supply chain. It may take ten years for the West to do that, but it shall be done. And if to shore up their internal situation, they continue their fight in the Himalayas with India or invade Taiwan, then the Chinese reputation of supply chain, consumer goods heaven is permanently ruined.
 

VivaVietnamm

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oronavirus leaves China’s over-35s with uncertain job prospects


For some Chinese workers, celebrating their 35th birthday is starting to feel like a curse.
Amid the frenzied competition for jobs stirred up by the economic impact of the pandemic, a growing number of employment ads are imposing age limits of 35 – leaving many Chinese nearing middle age feeling uncertain about their future.
Complaints about age discrimination in the job market – including for positions in the civil service – have flooded Chinese social platforms, and state media even have a name for the trend: the “age 35 phenomenon”.

Get the latest insights and analysis from our Global Impact newsletter on the big stories originating in China.
David Huang, who is in his forties, is one of the scores of Chinese workers above 35 feeling increasingly vulnerable. After the small clothing factory he owned in the southern province of Guangdong closed last year, he now traipses between wet markets and roadside stalls trying to sell his remaining inventory of about 10,000 garments.
I’m almost 50. Am I going to look for jobs? No. There’s nothing for me out there.

David Huang
“I’m almost 50. Am I going to look for jobs? No. There’s nothing for me out there. Finding jobs is too difficult,” Huang said. “Just look at how bad business is in those clothing retail shops in Guangzhou, you will get an idea how bad wholesaling and manufacturing garments is at the moment.”
On Zhihu, China’s version of the American question and answer website Quora, a discussion thread called “How does a 40-year-old unemployed individual live on?” has clocked up more than 27 million views since 2019. In post after post, users share their frustration about trying to find work in their middle age.
And the situation only appears to have deteriorated with the pandemic.
Nearly two thirds of people aged 35 and above who were laid off in March last year were still looking for jobs in September, according to a report released last month by the Development Research Centre of the State Council, which was based on data and a survey from Chinese job portal Zhaopin.
China to tap elderly population in bid to tackle looming demographic crisis, boost economy
From February to September, the number of people above 35 who submitted their resumes on Zhaopin increased by 15 per cent from a year earlier, more than double those under 35.
Resume submissions were particularly strong in industries that have been heavily affected by the pandemic, like retail and wholesale.
As a consequence, nearly half of the job applicants above 35 fell from middle or high-income groups to low income because their earnings had dropped, according to the study.
More than 70 per cent said they face pressure meeting mortgage payments and other costs, such as children’s education and medical bills. The study also estimated a third of them could only survive at current spending levels for 3 months.
Age discrimination is illegal in many countries, but not in China, which is facing a rapidly ageing population and shrinking workforce after more than three decades of the one-child policy.

Beijing has not yet announced its birth rate for 2020 or updated population figures after a nationwide census at the end of last year, but its birth rate is expected to have fallen again.
Despite this, many companies are seen as favouring young and energetic graduates over middle-aged workers because they can pay lower salaries for similar work.
The trend is most evident in China’s thriving tech sector, where a number of internet firms operate a sweatshop working culture known as “996” – 9am to 9pm, six days per week. Most developers over 35 are considered too old to handle the workload.
Tang Ying, 36, has found herself in the grips of insomnia and depression lately while grappling with the possibility of losing her job as a front desk administrative employee at a small tech firm in Guangzhou.
The past year has been a nightmare for Tang: her marriage fell apart and she contracted tuberculosis, an infectious disease affecting lungs.
When she went back to her job after recovering, the company gave her more work than usual, something she perceived to mean they wanted her to quit.
Many places only want people under 35. I have been battling with this thought a lot

Tang Ying
Yet, she has stayed on, concerned her lack of a university degree will mean she is unable to find work elsewhere.
“I’m scared. I don’t have confidence in sending out resumes,” said Tang, who worked at a call centre as a customer service operator previously.
“Many places only want people under 35. I have been battling with this thought a lot. All I think of is trying to hold on to this job.”
The Zhaopin study found even though there are more job opportunities in low-tier cities than first-tier cities, many middle-aged jobseekers are hesitant to move their families out of China’s most developed and affluent regions, such as Guangzhou.
A graduate school degree and work experience for some of the nation’s biggest tech companies does not necessarily give you an edge either, said 38-year-old Jim Yang, whose position as a former salesman at telecoms giant Huawei was ended by the firm three years ago.

The expansion of enrolments at tertiary institutions has made diplomas worth less than they were a decade ago, he said. No longer is it difficult for big companies to replace experienced workers, because often their knowledge has been captured in reports that can be picked up by fresh graduates.
Another obstacle for ex-employees of big companies like Huawei is that they have trouble meeting the multiple demands made by smaller firms, he said.
It took Yang three months to find a new job at a small robot manufacturer, where he had to take a lower salary. Some of his old colleagues, meanwhile, have gone back to Huawei as contractors on lower incomes and social benefits after struggling to find a job elsewhere.
“Among my friends above 35 who left Huawei, about 40 per cent have kept a decent life,” Yang said. “Even though they earn less than their Huawei years, they still have monthly incomes between 20,000 (US$3,092) and 40,000 yuan.”
If all you did is write reports in your old job, I can find a fresh graduate to do these things

Sunny Dong
“The other 60 per cent are a bit miserable. They have either been out of work for a long time and invested in stocks or are partnering with others to start a business, but don’t take salaries, only for dividends. Some have divorced with no job, sold their homes, and returned to their hometowns.”
Sunny Dong, a hiring manager at a Shanghai-based education consultancy, said many jobs set an age limit at 35 in China, but the requirement is not strict in all cases.

“I have recruiter friends who do not want applicants over 35 years old … but you give them a good candidate who knows lots of people at international schools for a marketing position and they still hire him. So it’s not absolute,” she said.
“Of course, there are also many unemployed people who are above 35. I have a lot of resumes here, born in 1980 or 1981, even some with a British green card, but they cannot find jobs in both Britain and China.
“If all you did is write reports in your old job, I can find a fresh graduate to do these things.”

 

VivaVietnamm

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What is ‘lying flat’, and why are Chinese officials standing up to it?

“Lying flat” represents the mindset of lying down instead of being a productive member of society. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen



“Lying flat” represents the mindset of lying down instead of being a productive member of society. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
“Lying flat” is a movement about doing nothing. And that makes it about everything.
For months, the chatter surrounding lying flat, or tang ping, has permeated Chinese society, sowed discourse and become ubiquitous enough to finally warrant a public condemnation by President Xi Jinping.
“It is necessary to prevent the stagnation of the social class, unblock the channels for upward social mobility, create opportunities for more people to become rich, and form an environment for improvement in which everyone participates, avoiding involution and lying flat,” Xi said in comments published on October 15 by the Communist Party’s flagship journal on political theory, Qiushi.
His words address a trend that strikes at the very heart of his “Chinese dream” ideology, which he has described as the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.
So what does ‘lying flat’ mean?
“Lying flat” essentially means doing the bare minimum to get by, and striving for nothing more than what is absolutely essential for one’s survival.


It represents the mindset of lying down instead of being a productive member of society. Rather than striving to study hard, buy a home, or even start a family, a subsection of society is rejecting it all to lie flat.
Is this China’s ‘Great Resignation’?
22 Oct 2021
1635153983336.png


Some have dubbed it a manifesto against materialism, some suspect it is simply being lazy, and others say this type of defeatist attitude is an inevitable result when people become so overwhelmed and dismayed by the notion of working themselves to the bone that they feel there is no other option but to give up.
Where did ‘lying flat’ come from?
Unlike many buzzwords that have come before it, “lying flat” does not represent a new fad. But a viral online post in April 2021 brought it to the forefront of many minds, especially the younger generation, and it has since gained immense traction in China.

On the Baidu Tieba social media platform, a man named Luo Huazhong, in his mid-twenties, wrote about how he had embraced this lifestyle of minimalism for two years.
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“Life is just lying down, lying down and lying down,” he said in the post, titled “Lying flat is justice”.

Lying flat is a state of mind – that is, I feel that many things are not worthy of my attention and energyLuo Huazhong

Luo explained how he was living a low-desire, zero-pressure lifestyle without stable employment, while staying with his parents in Zhejiang province. When he was feeling up for it, he would travel three hours to Dongyang, Zhejiang, where the world’s largest film studio is located. He found work there that he considered perfect – acting as a dead body in movies.

His post included a picture of himself lying down, dressed in an ancient Chinese assassin costume for one of his roles. The photo and post spread like wildfire online.

“When I say lying flat, I don’t mean that I just lie down every day and don’t do anything,” Luo later said in media interviews. “Lying flat is a state of mind – that is, I feel that many things are not worthy of my attention and energy.”
Why has lying flat resonated with ordinary Chinese?
Similar stories about unmotivated Chinese youth have also circulated in the past. One involved a group of young migrant workers who self-mockingly called themselves the “Sanhe gods” and would roam around the Sanhe area of Shenzhen’s Longhua district. Having grown tired of working long hours in factories for little pay, they instead took occasional one-off jobs as labourers and received cash for a day’s work.

Their motto was, “With one day’s pay, you can have fun for three days.” They slept in public parks, ate instant noodles and spent time in internet bars until they ran out of money. But local authorities eventually cracked down on the “Sanhe gods”, and their story never gained the type of notoriety nor longevity that “lying flat” has.

In the internet era when countless posts feature complaints and gripes about personal struggles and the hardships of life, the concept of lying flat stands out because of its philosophical undertones that serve not as a call to action, but to inaction.

“Since there has never really been an ideological trend exalting human subjectivity in this land, I shall create it for myself,” Luo said. “Lying down is my wise-man movement.”
The ethos struck a chord with much of China’s young and disenchanted workforce that has been hit particularly hard by the nation’s economic slowdown, trade tensions with the West and the coronavirus pandemic.

This followed years of being spoon-fed the rose-tinted propaganda of Xi’s “Chinese dream” with the promise of a bright future for the nation and a “better life” for themselves. It became especially hard to swallow for the millions who have slaved away in China “996” culture of overwork – meaning shifts from 9am to 9pm, six days a week – and still cannot afford a home, much less achieve a happy work-life balance.
And an increasing number have lost the motivation to even try.
Why China’s youth are ‘lying flat’ in protest of their bleak economic prospects
14 Jun 2021
1635153983364.png


What risks does lying flat pose to China?
From white-collar workers in China’s bustling cities to university students, an army of frustrated young people took to social media and internet message boards in recent months to declare themselves “‘lying flat youth”.

And across the country, T-shirts printed with “Do nothing lie flat youth” have become hot selling items. Authorities have been scrambling to suppress the phenomenon, fearing that it could challenge the established social and economic order.
In the long run, lying flat could not only affect Chinese consumption and growth, but also lower the birth rate that is already eating up the country’s demographic dividend and threatening its social welfare system, according to economists and social commentators.
Psychologists and doctors also warn that prolonged inactivity raises the risk of life-threatening physical and mental disorders, including heart disease and depression.

It is easy to understand the anxiety of Chinese authorities over the lying-flat attitude, said Dr Gavin Sin Hin Chiu, an independent commentator and former associate professor at Shenzhen University.
“If it becomes widespread, it will affect young people’s expectations of income growth, consumption, marriage and childbirth, which will be detrimental to China’s ability to avoid the middle-income trap, where growth stagnates and incomes stall,” he said.
President Xi’s call for a society “in which everyone participates”, and his insistence that people not lie flat, was publicised just three days before authorities announced that China’s gross domestic product growth during the third quarter of this year slowed to just 4.9 per cent, compared with a year earlier.
China’s economy had staged an impressive recovery from the impact of the coronavirus, but is now faced with numerous headwinds, including a property slump, energy crisis, weak consumer sentiment and soaring raw material costs.





China tackles challenges posed by its ageing population
The lying-flat trend also appeared to reach its zenith in the third quarter.
Additionally, Xi’s latest comments fleshed out his concept of “common prosperity”, saying it was time for China to advance its goal of all citizens sharing in the opportunity to be wealthy.
But he also said government officials at all levels should not make promises they cannot keep, and must avoid the “trap of welfarism” to support the lazy.
“Only by promoting common prosperity, increasing the income of urban and rural residents, and improving human capital can we increase overall productivity and consolidate the foundations for high-quality development,” the Qiushi article quoted him as saying. “China must prevent polarisation, promote common prosperity and achieve social harmony and stability.”
Is China censoring the lying-flat movement?
The “Great Firewall” is doing its best to keep people from talking about lying flat.
When censors realised how popular Luo’s original post was becoming, it was scrubbed from the internet. However, copies quickly spread online, sparking lively discussions and videos – many of which garnered millions of views each. But they, too, have since been deleted.
Authorities have used all of the tools at their disposal to steer the social narrative back toward the official line.
State-backed media outlets helped lead the charge. Nanfang Daily called the trend “shameful”. Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the nationalistic Global Times tabloid, said: “Young people are the hope of this country. Neither they themselves, nor the country, will allow them to collectively lie flat.”
China’s new Gen Z jobs reflect changing views on life and society
14 Aug 2021
1635153983393.png


Analysts say that the idea of people doing nothing is particularly jarring for Chinese authorities, as it reflects a sort of silent rebellion that cannot easily be quashed. Quelling protests in the streets is one thing, but getting millions of individuals out of their beds and forcing them to engage in society in entirely different.
The censorship and preaching have, in some cases, sparked heated backlash and lent credence to the movement, particularly in the eyes of people who struggle to simply earn a living.
Analysts at Nomura, in the financial services group’s special report on Asia in August, said they believe that the wealth-inequality issue will continue to be a growing concern among China’s leaders for years to come.
“Falling social mobility, as a result of widening wealth inequality, is sowing the seeds of discontent, especially among younger people, who have higher expectations after observing the vast amounts of wealth accumulated in cities,” the report said. “This kind of disenchantment and dissatisfaction is only likely to worsen with the expected slowdown in economic growth.
“The lying-flat movement, which calls on young people to opt out of the struggle for workplace success and to resist the attractions of consumer fulfilment, is a direct extension of this discontent.”
Do people lie flat in the United States and elsewhere?
At John F. Kennedy’s presidential inauguration in 1961, he inspired Americans to see the importance of civic action and public service.
The JFK Library says his historic words, “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country”, challenged everyone to contribute in some way to the public good.
This call came after the so-called Beat Generation movement prompted people – dubbed beatniks – to rebel against conformity and traditional lifestyles in the 1950s. “Beat” was initially slang for “beaten down”.




South Korea’s young ‘broadcast jockeys’ stream themselves to fame and fortune
South Korea’s young ‘broadcast jockeys’ stream themselves to fame and fortune


03:09
South Korea’s young ‘broadcast jockeys’ stream themselves to fame and fortune

South Korea’s young ‘broadcast jockeys’ stream themselves to fame and fortune
In the 1990s, the United Kingdom classified a growing group of people as NEET – an acronym for “Not in Education, Employment or Training”, and it included those who were unemployed and not looking for work.
Around 2010, the “Satori generation” was coined in Japan to describe young people who were seemingly free from material desires and no longer wanted to work.
And a few years ago, South Korea had its “Sampo generation”, referring to those who had given up on romantic relationships, marriage and having children. Eventually, the generation’s name evolved to include a disinterest in employment, home ownership, interpersonal relationships and even hope.
“It’s not new across the world to see youth of different generations and different nations losing their motivation to strive for a better life, while turning against materialism and forgoing regular jobs and careers,” Dr Chiu said.

China is now at a crossroads of becoming a high-income economy or finding itself stuck in the middle-income trap. The lying-flat movement would negatively affect China’s efforts to escape the middle-income trapDr Gavin Sin Hin Chiu

But the trend is more worrying in China than in other countries, he explained, because China’s economic development is not as advanced.
“The significant difference is that [similar] movements occurred when the United States and Japan had already entered the stage of advanced economies, with per capita disposable income much higher than the current level in China,” he said.
“China is now at a crossroads of becoming a high-income economy or finding itself stuck in the middle-income trap. The lying-flat movement would negatively affect China’s efforts to escape the middle-income trap.”
So it’s little wonder that Xi and the rest of China’s leadership are so intent on stamping out this lying-flat ethos that has become such an outsized threat.

 

VivaVietnamm

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From December 1, China will only receive preferential tariffs from 3 countries Norway, New Zealand and Australia.
According to information from the General Administration of Customs of China, from December 1, 32 countries will stop applying preferential tariffs to this country. One economist predicts that labor-intensive businesses will be affected when the decision officially takes effect.

Specifically, according to a notice on October 28 by the General Administration of Customs of China, starting from December 1, Chinese goods exported to "EU member countries, the United Kingdom, Canada, Turkey, Ukraine and Liechtenstein" will no longer be granted GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) certificates.

As its name suggests, GSP is a system of preferential tariffs of developed countries for exports from developing countries and regions by reducing or exempting taxes.

China's General Administration of Customs "welcomes" the move to suspend GSP issuance as "recognition from other developed economies that China is no longer in the group of low- and middle-income countries, and products Chinese products are competitive enough in the market, no longer need 'them' protection."

"We are 'graduating' from the GSP (General System of Preferences) program and moving towards becoming a 'mature' economy," the announcement states.

Thus, the notice of the General Administration of Customs of China indirectly confirmed that 32 countries (including 27 EU countries, the United Kingdom, Canada, Turkey, Ukraine and Liechtenstein) have canceled trade treatment for with China.
32 nước bao gồm EU chấm dứt ưu đãi thuế quan dành cho Trung Quốc: Bắc Kinh phản ứng lạ - Ảnh 1.


Notice of General Administration of Customs of China



According to Taiwan News, China started receiving GSP trade preferences since 1978, and a total of about 40 countries have or are granting China tax exemption certificates for certain exports. Previously, Switzerland, Japan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus (members of the Eurasian Economic Union) stopped giving preferential tariff treatment to China.

Thus, from December 1, China will only receive preferential tariffs from 3 countries Norway, New Zealand and Australia.

Deputy Secretary General of the Chunghwa Economic and Financial Association (Taiwan), Tseng Chih-Chao, said that ending duty-free market access for China has little impact on exports overall, but Labor-intensive and low-margin businesses will bear the brunt – and this could lead to the relocation of manufacturing plants in China to other developing countries.

Previously, some Chinese news sites confused the GSP preferential tariff certificate with the WTO's most-favored nation (MFN) principle, causing some readers to worry that this move would bring China back to the previous era. when it joined the WTO 20 years ago.

Explaining this, Mr. Wu Guoxiong, a senior lawyer specializing in customs law, focusing on anti-smuggling, customs dispute resolution and import and export legal risk prevention said GSP and MFN are two different principles.

Accordingly, GSP is a unilateral preference and can be canceled unilaterally. Meanwhile, MFN is the principle of mutual preference, so the parties can violate the Convention if they unilaterally cancel the preference and this case can even lead to commercial disputes and trade retaliation. /.
 

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