Analysis: In April 2023, China's foreign trade surplus surged by 96.5%
The latest foreign trade data from China has been released, but as the results are too outrageous, I think it is necessary to explain them separately.
In April 2023, China's exports reached 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%, while imports reached 1.41 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8%.
The significant gap in the growth rate of import and export volume has directly led to China's trade surplus soaring to 618.44 billion yuan in April, a 96.5% year-on-year increase.
This is an outrageous data point, because last year our surplus was originally a high base growth, with both percentage growth and absolute values reaching historic highs. However, this year, despite the extremely high base of last year's surplus, we continue to reach new highs, and the growth rate has reached an outrageous figure of 96.5%.
Some people say that April alone does not represent anything, so I specially summarized the data from January to April this year, and then compared it with the data from January to April last year, and made a comparison number.
From January to April 2022, China's exports reached 6.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3%, imports reached 5.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 5%, and trade surplus reached 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 39.2%.
If priced in US dollars, it would be a surplus of 212.93 billion US dollars.
The first four months of 2022 were the year of the outbreak of China's trade surplus, with a surplus of over 200 billion US dollars in just four months, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%.
This outrageous growth rate directly shocked the world. You should know that China is the world's second largest economic power, and what concept is such an economic power with a surplus growth of 39.2%!
At this rate, we can achieve a surplus of over 600 billion US dollars in the 12 months of the year.
But in fact, the surplus we achieved in the 12 months of 2022 was not over $600 billion, but $877.6 billion, as the surplus continued to expand every month.
This trend of expanding surplus continued beyond this year, resulting in greater year-on-year growth.
From January to April 2023, China's exports reached 7.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6%, imports reached 5.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.02%, and achieved a trade surplus of 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 56.7% compared to January to April 2022.
The year-on-year increase of 39.2% in the surplus from January to April last year has shocked the world. Despite the high growth base of last year, the surplus from January to April this year unexpectedly increased by 56.7% again, especially when a figure of 96.5% directly jumped out in April.
Are you saying it's outrageous or not?
Not having a surplus can lead to huge economic problems, but having too much surplus can also lead to economic problems.
Last year, China already had a headache about how to spend its surplus of over 800 billion US dollars and was unwilling to buy US bonds. Therefore, taking advantage of the global shortage of US dollars due to the US interest rate hike, China borrowed US dollars everywhere and demanded that other countries with a shortage of US dollars borrow US dollars to repay the Chinese yuan.
On the one hand, it encourages the United States to try to use interest rate hikes to shatter the dream of using the US dollar to ravage other countries, and on the other hand, it promotes the renminbi.
But if this year's surge in surplus continues, the surplus for the entire year is likely to exceed trillions of dollars.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is going to visit one by one again and ask if other countries are still short of US dollars. Would you like to borrow some more from us on good terms...
China's export growth rate was 10% last year and 10% this year, which is a very surprising number, but it is also quite good. It is not as scary as a 50% growth rate with a surplus.
The reason for such a large surplus growth rate is entirely because the import growth rate has not kept up with exports.
In the first four months of last year, the import growth rate was only 5%.
In the first four months of this year, the import growth rate was only 0.02%.
All are far below the export growth rate of over 10%.
What has happened, why is China's import growth rate so low?
I checked the data again, mainly focusing on the structure of China's imports and exports. This time, it was more fun because the reasons for China's significant increase in exports and non increase in imports are actually the same.
What are the components of China's export earnings products?
Many people blurted out that labor-intensive products, clothing, socks and other textiles, all rely on sweatshop to earn foreign exchange. China has seen the story of exchanging 100 million shirts for aircraft since childhood.
Previously, it didn't matter, but now it's not.
From January to April 2023, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 10.5%, with an amount of 4.44 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.9% of the total export value, making it an absolute leader.
The export of labor-intensive products is 1.31 trillion yuan, accounting for only 17.1% of the total export value.
Mechanical and electrical products have become China's top exporter, while shirts, socks, and other products have long been small.
What is a mechanical and electrical product?
Just take a look at the reasons for the significant decline in China's imported products.
From January to April this year, the amount of imported mechanical and electrical products in China significantly decreased by 14.4%, including a 21.1% decrease in imported integrated circuits, with a decrease of up to 724 billion yuan, and a 28.9% decrease in imported automobiles, with a total amount of approximately 100.4 billion yuan.
The export of Chinese cars surged by 120.3% year-on-year, making it the most exaggerated growth rate among export products. A vast array of Chinese cars are piled up in ports waiting to be exported.
While China's automobile exports surged by 120.3%, imports plummeted by 28.9%, which directly led to a sharp expansion of China's trade surplus in the automotive industry.
For 40 years, China has been a deficit country in the automotive trade, constantly using foreign exchange to buy foreign cars, with imports far exceeding exports.
But in 2022, China achieved its first surplus in the automotive trade sector, earning a full 380 billion yuan surplus for the whole year. This is the first time in the 40 years since China's reform and opening up that it has shifted from losing money to making money in the automotive trade sector.
In the first four months of 2023, China's automobile exports surged again by 120%, while imports plummeted again by 28.9%.
Although the breakdown data has not yet been released, there is no need to look at it. With such a large gap in import and export growth rates, the surplus is bound to skyrocket, and the automotive industry will soon become China's strong foreign exchange earner.
Cars are the largest consumer goods except for housing, and all automobile powerhouses are developed countries without exception.
The second major decrease in imports of electromechanical products, apart from automobiles, is in integrated circuits.
What is an integrated circuit?
An integrated circuit may not necessarily be a chip, but a chip must be an integrated circuit.
You should be very clear about my popularization of science.
In the field of mid to low end chips and other integrated circuits, China's production capacity has rapidly increased, and a large number of domestic substitutes have led to a continuous decline in import demand.
In 2022, the import volume of integrated circuits in China decreased by 15.3% year-on-year.
From January to April 2023, the import volume of integrated circuits in China decreased by 21.1% year-on-year.
There is an increase in stability, but it refers to a decrease in speed.
In the field of integrated circuits, South Korea is responsible for the manufacturing of mid to low-end chips, and its interests have been most severely damaged during China's significant leap in chip production capacity.
From September 1994 to April 2022, South Korea achieved a record 28 consecutive years of trade surplus with China, with a total surplus of several hundred billion US dollars, relying mainly on automobiles, mobile phones, and integrated circuits.
A few years ago, South Korean mobile phones became cool in China. Since 2020, South Korean cars have become cool in China, and by the end of 2022, South Korean integrated circuits have also become cool in China.
In April 2023, South Korea's exports to China decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, marking the 11th consecutive month of decline, while semiconductor chip exports decreased by 41%, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline.
The 41% drop in semiconductor chip exports to China is almost equivalent to halving.
Therefore, South Korea's trade with China has gone from a huge surplus to a huge deficit, and there is no hope of a reversal.
The above is why China's trade surplus increased by 56.7% year-on-year from January to April, and the April surplus was the reason for the sudden increase of 96.5%.
Simply put, the fields of mechanical and electrical products such as automobiles and integrated circuits not only saw a significant increase in exports, but also a significant decrease in imports, directly leading to a huge gap in China's import and export growth rate, which in turn led to a surge in China's surplus.
This result shocked me so much, not only because the data was amazing, both the total data from January to April and the single month data from April were amazing.
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中国最新的外贸数据出来了，因为结果过于离谱，所以我觉得有必要单独说一下。
2023年4月，中国出口2.02万亿元，增长16.8%，进口1.41万亿元，下降0.8%。
进出口额的增速出现了异常的巨大差距，直接导致4月份中国的贸易顺差飙升到了6184.4亿元，同比去年4月暴涨96.5%。
这是一个离谱到极点的数据，因为去年我们的顺差本来就是高基数增长，百分比增速和绝对值都创历史新高，今年居然在去年顺差超高基数的背景下继续创新高，而且增速达到了96.5%这么离谱的数字。
有人说4月份单独一个月能不代表什么，所以我特地把今年1~4月份的数据汇总，然后和去年1~4月份的数据进行汇总，再做一个对比数字出来。
2022年1~4月，中国出口6.97万亿，增长10.3%，进口5.61万亿，增长5%，贸易顺差1.36万亿，增长39.2%。
如果以美元计价，那就是拿下了2129.3亿美元的顺差。
2022年的前四个月是中国贸易顺差的爆发之年，短短4个月的时间里拿下了2000多亿美元的顺差，同比增长39.2%。
这个离谱的增速直接震惊世界，要知道我们中国是世界第二大经济强国，这样的经济大国顺差增长39.2%是个什么概念！
按这个速度，全年12个月我们能拿下6000多亿美元的顺差。
但实际上2022年的全年12个月，我们拿下的顺差并不是6000多亿美元，而是8776亿美元，因为每个月的顺差额都在扩大，持续扩大。
这种顺差扩大的趋势持续到了今年之后，造出了更大的同比增长。
2023年1~4月，中国出口7.67万亿，增长10.6%，进口5.65万亿元，增长0.02%，实现贸易顺差2.02万亿元，同比2022年1~4月，扩大56.7%。
去年的1~4月顺差同比增长39.2%已经震惊世界了，今年的1~4月在去年高增长高基数的前提下居然再度增长56.7%，尤其是4月份直接蹦出个96.5%的数字。
你说离谱不离谱？
没有顺差会导致巨大的经济问题，但顺差太多也会导致经济问题。
中国去年的时候就已经头疼8000多亿美元的顺差该怎么花了，又不愿意买美债，于是就趁美国加息全球缺美元的档口到处借给别人美元，要求其他缺美元的国家借美元还人民币。
一方面让美国试图用加息制造美元荒割其他国家的美梦破碎，一方面推广人民币。
但今年这顺差暴增的势头如果持续下去，全年的顺差很有可能破万亿美元。
外交部又要挨个去串门拜访了，问一下别个国家还缺不缺美元，要不要从我们这再借点，条件好说。。。
中国的出口增速去年是10%，今年也是10%，这是一个非常惊人的数字，但也还算好，没有顺差动不动就50%增速那么吓人。
之所以会产生那么大的顺差增速完全是因为进口增速没跟上出口。
去年前四个月，进口增速仅为5%。
今年前四个月，进口增速仅为0.02%。
全部远低于10%以上的出口增速。
发生了什么，为什么中国的进口增速那么低？
我又查了一下数据，主要查我国进出口的结构，这次更好玩，因为中国出口大增和进口不增的原因其实是同一个。
中国的出口创汇产品由什么东西组成？
好多人脱口而出，劳动密集型产品啊，服装袜子等纺织品，创汇全靠血汗工厂，中国拿一亿件衬衣换飞机的故事从小就看过。
以前是不是这不重要了，重要的是现在已经不是了。
2023年1~4月，中国的出口产品里机电产品增长10.5%，金额为4.44万亿元，占出口总值的57.9%，为绝对大头。
而劳动密集型产品出口1.31万亿元，只占出口总值的17.1%。
机电产品已经成了中国的出口大头，衬衣袜子什么的早就成了小头。
什么叫机电产品？
看下中国进口产品大降的原因就知道了。
今年1~4月，中国进口机电产品金额大降14.4%，其中进口集成电路下降21.1%，下降金额高达7240亿元，进口汽车下降28.9%，金额约1004亿元。
中国汽车的出口同比暴增120.3%，是出口产品里增速最夸张的东西，铺天盖地的中国汽车堆在港口里等待出口。
在中国汽车出口暴增120.3%的同时，进口大降28.9%，这一进一出直接导致中国在汽车领域的贸易顺差剧烈扩大。
足足40年来，中国一直是汽车贸易的逆差国，常年拿外汇去买外国汽车，进口远远大于出口。
但在2022年中国首次在汽车贸易领域实现了顺差，全年为中国赚回了足足3800亿人民币的顺差，这是中国改革开放40年来在汽车贸易领域首次从亏钱变成赚钱。
而2023年的前四个月，中国的汽车出口再度暴增120%，同时进口再度爆降28.9%。
虽然细分数据还没出来，但不用看了，进出口增速差距那么大，顺差必然暴增，汽车领域将很快成为中国的创汇悍将。
汽车是除住房外的最大消费品，所有的汽车强国全部都是发达国家，无一例外。
机电产品除汽车外，第二个进口大降的就是集成电路。
什么是集成电路？
集成电路不一定是芯片，但芯片一定是集成电路。
我这么科普你应该就很清楚了。
在中低端芯片领域和其他集成电路领域，中国的产能飞速爬升，大量的国产化替代导致进口需求连年下降。
2022年，中国集成电路进口数量同比下降15.3%。
2023年1~4月，中国集成电路进口数量同比下降21.1%。
稳中有升，不过指的是降速。
在集成电路领域里，韩国负责的是中低端芯片制造，在中国的这波芯片产能大跃进里利益受损最为严重。
自1994年9月到2022年4月，韩国实现了对中国连续28年贸易顺差的记录，共实现对华大几千亿美元的顺差，依靠的三大法宝主要是汽车、手机、集成电路。
前些年韩国的手机在中国凉了，2020年开始韩国的汽车在中国凉了，2022年底开始韩国的集成电路也在中国凉了。
2023年4月，韩国对中国的出口同比下降26.5%，为连续11个月下降，半导体芯片出口下降41%，为连续第九个月下降。
半导体芯片对华出口下降41%这几乎就等于腰斩了。
因此，韩国对华贸易从巨额顺差直接变成了巨额逆差，而且根本看不到逆转的希望。
以上，就是中国贸易顺差1~4月同比增长56.7%，而4月顺差更是暴涨96.5%暴增的原因所在。
简单的说就是汽车、集成电路等机电产品领域不仅出口大增，还进口大降，直接导致中国进出口增速出现巨大差距，进而导致中国顺差暴增。
这个结果让我如此震惊，不仅仅是因为数据惊人，不管是1~4月的总数据还是4月的单月数据都很惊人。
