China Economy: News & Discussion

[Oracle]

World Bank says China's economy slowing

SHANGHAI: China's economy is showing signs of softening after a strong stimulus-fueled rebound last year, the World Bank says in its latest quarterly update.

Industrial production and other key indicators show the pace of growth moderating albeit remaining relatively strong, supported by real estate investment and a recovery in export demand, the report said.

"China's economic outlook remains favorable," the report said, forecasting growth at 9.5 per cent this year and 8.5 per cent in 2011, with "risks both ways."

The report likewise summarized prospects for the global economy as favorable but said risks were large because of the high debt burdens of some countries.

Private real estate investment in China helped make up for a tempering in government-backed stimulus spending, the report said. But concerns that excess investment and speculative purchases were driving prices to unsustainably high levels have prompted a tightening of bank lending, cooling growth in the property sector.

China needs to rebalance growth away from investment, while remaining flexible, it said, urging greater flexibility in interest rates.


China's export growth remains strong, though rising costs for raw materials have eroded the country's cost advantage, the report said. It made no mention of rising labor costs, an increasingly critical factor for many companies amid an apparent upsurge in labor activism among migrant workers who have begun pushing for higher wages and better working conditions.

Reliable figures on migrant wages are hard to come by. But the report said average rural wages rose 16.4 percent in the first quarter of the year, compared with a year earlier.

The World Bank report praised Beijing's recent moves to encourage more investment in the private sector, noting that state-owned companies benefitted disproportionately from the government's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package and other moves to support growth after the economy stalled in 2008.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...hinas-economy-slowing/articleshow/6061683.cms

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Chinese GDP 2009

Chinese GDP 2009 by region

 

[badguy2000]

Chinese GDP 2009 by region

good pictures..thanks

 

[Armand2REP]

That map is screwed up, there is no way Inner Mongolia has a $5000-10000 per capita GDP. Those are among the poorest people on the planet.

 

[Daredevil]

China's housing boom spells trouble for boyfriends

Many women won't marry a man who doesn't own a home. This recent shift, along with soaring real estate prices, has created a woefully frustrated class of bachelors.
Mike Zhang

Reporting from Beijing —

Mike Zhang considered himself serious boyfriend material. He knew what to order at an Italian restaurant. He could mix a tasty margarita. And he always volunteered to carry his girlfriend's handbag.

Then came the deal breaker. Zhang, a 28-year-old language tutor and interpreter, couldn't afford an apartment in the capital's scorching property market.

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Rather than waste any more time, his girlfriend of more than two years dumped him.

Zhang's misfortune is not uncommon. China's housing boom has created a woefully frustrated class of bachelors.

Home prices in major cities including Beijing and Shanghai have easily doubled over the last year as families and investors rush to grab a piece of the Chinese dream. A typical 1,000-square-foot, two-bedroom, one-bath apartment in the capital now costs about $274,000. That's 22 times the average annual income of a Beijing resident.

Unlike in the United States, where home buying traditionally takes place after marriage, owning a place in China has recently become a prerequisite for tying the knot. Experts said securing an apartment in this market signals that a man is successful, family-oriented and able to weather challenging financial circumstances. Put succinctly, homeownership has become the ultimate symbol of virility in today's China.

"A man is not a man if he doesn't own a house," said Chen Xiaomin, director of the Women's Studies Center at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. "Marriage is becoming more and more materialistic. This is a huge change in Chinese society. No matter how confident a woman is, she will lose face if her boyfriend or husband doesn't have a house."

Dating websites are now awash with women stipulating that hopefuls must come with a residence (and often a set of wheels) in tow.

"I'm 25 years old, looking for a boyfriend.... I want you to have an apartment and a car.... The apartment has to be built after 2000 and the car has to be better than a minivan," read one post on the popular Chinese Web portal Baidu.

Material matters weren't quite so important when previous generations courted. Most Chinese were poor. Property was controlled by the state and homes were doled out through an individual's work unit. When China was more agrarian, marriages were usually arranged, and it was customary for a bride's family to provide a dowry — be it money, bedding or even a sewing machine.

But economic reform and mass urbanization in the last 30 years have upended these norms. In 1998, the central government launched one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history by allowing Chinese to buy their homes from the state, often with subsidies. The privatization of property spurred the creation of a commercialized housing industry with developers and investors.

Young Chinese are coming of age at a time of exploding wealth and rising expectations for material success. In a survey last year on Sohu.com, a popular Web portal similar to Yahoo, 73% of respondents said homeownership was a necessity for marriage. An almost equal percentage said they had difficulty buying an apartment.

"Not everyone has rich parents who can help you buy an apartment," said Chen Kechun, a 25-year-old Beijing native whose relationship disintegrated after his six-month search for an affordable home proved fruitless. "I learned that if a girl decides to marry you, you better have a strong financial foundation."

Growing male frustrations have given rise to a new female archetype: the bai jin nu, or gold-digger.

On the wildly popular TV reality program "Don't Bother Me Unless You're Serious," one woman tried to size up a suitor by asking matter-of-factly, "Do you have money?"

The man cut to the chase: "I have three flats in Shanghai."

The hard-boiled bachelorette, Ma Nuo, has gone on to become one of China's most recognizable bai jin nu. Marry for love? Fat chance, said the material girl: "I would rather cry in a BMW than smile on the back of my boyfriend's bicycle."

Ma's mercenary take on matrimony may be extreme; still, single women in China are driven by intense societal pressure to find a mate who can deliver the digs.

Though more women are becoming career oriented, China remains stubbornly traditional. Males are expected to be breadwinners while females rear a family's only child.

"My parents think it's important.... They would rather I marry someone who owns his own property," said Wei Na, 28, an advertising saleswoman in Beijing. "It just makes you feel more safe if a man has his own place. I think most women feel the same way."

Fang Jing is trying to hold on to his relationship. The 29-year-old has been trying to persuade his girlfriend to share in the $250,000 cost of a Shanghai apartment so that they can wed next year.

"She didn't agree immediately. She's still hoping I can take care of it myself," Fang said. "But we have to face reality. In Shanghai it's difficult for one person to afford an apartment. When we face something as important as this, men and women have to be equal."

Fang will need about $75,000 to afford the 30% down payment on the home the couple want. That's a lofty goal, considering that the computer technician is between jobs and has no savings. He's counting on both sets of parents to chip in.

Wang Haijun, a real estate agent on Beijing's east side, said he can always tell when a desperate bachelor walks into his office.

"They're always the least rational buyers," Wang said. "They don't care how little money they have. They just want an apartment as soon as possible. They take on a mortgage with the longest terms and highest interest rates. But they have no choice. They have to get married. I feel sorry for them."

Zhang, the language tutor and interpreter, wanted to marry his girlfriend, a receptionist at a language school. The two shared a love for American TV — "Sex and the City" for her and "Lost" for him.

The closer they grew, the more she asked about their future and a home.

"I told her I loved her and would marry her if she didn't mind not having a house," Zhang said. "But she said no. I told her I wanted a house too, but I didn't know how. I'm not rich."

Zhang began checking real estate listings in his neighborhood a year and a half ago. He was stunned. An apartment of about 1,000 square feet cost $150,000. Zhang's parents, who run a modest bakery in northeast China, offered to help. But the $30,000 down payment was still well out of reach.

His girlfriend grew increasingly concerned. She wanted to get married while her grandparents were still healthy and could celebrate her wedding. Last December, she called off the relationship.

Zhang says he's finally over the breakup. His appetite has returned. He has even gone on a couple of dates.

He acknowledges he must begin saving money for an apartment, but he resents being judged by his inability to purchase property. He would rather have a woman love him for his charm than for the roof he puts over her head.

"People's values have changed," he said. "It doesn't matter if you're a nice guy or you're fun or good natured or have a sense of humor. They don't care. All they care about is a house."

 

[amoy]

That map is screwed up, there is no way Inner Mongolia has a $5000-10000 per capita GDP. Those are among the poorest people on the planet.

Inner Mongolia is rich in resources like coal, minerals, and even wind power and wool (Erdos) Besides it is vast but its population is scarcely spread (relatively). The old impression of 'Gobi' or desert is misleading.

 

[amoy]

I would rather cry in a BMW than smile on the back of my boyfriend's bicycle."

"People's values have changed," he said. "It doesn't matter if you're a nice guy or you're fun or good natured or have a sense of humor. They don't care. All they care about is a house."

Lots of men's hearts are bleeding.. but C'est la Vie - like Madona's song "I am a material girl".

Still many good girls are willing to pay mortgage with boyfriends.

 

[Armand2REP]

Inner Mongolia is rich in resources like coal, minerals, and even wind power and wool (Erdos) Besides it is vast but its population is scarcely spread (relatively). The old impression of 'Gobi' or desert is misleading.

If you have ever been to IM you will notice it is full of a bunch of broke farmers whose crops have dried up and heardsman whose cattle have starved. Most of them have left for the coast of China or Russia long ago.

 

[amoy]

If you have ever been to IM you will notice it is full of a bunch of broke farmers whose crops have dried up and heardsman whose cattle have starved. Most of them have left for the coast of China or Russia long ago.

u certainly know more than I do about what GDP per capita is about, hardly reflecting actual 'living standard' especially for such resource-intensive areas.

u may also have been some countries such as Turkey, which also has a >10K usd per capita. What about those people outside main metropolis??

 

[Param]

Chinese GDP 2009 by region

I hate maps that show Arunachal with China.

 

[SHASH2K2]

BEIJING — On a hot morning in late May, while some 2,000 workers at a Honda parts factory were striking in China's south, 100 irate employees at a hotel in the heart of the capital staged their own protest.
The Honda workers got lots of publicity. The hotel employees were mostly ignored. But the undercurrent was the same: labor disputes are becoming a common feature of the Chinese economic landscape.

Chinese workers are much more willing these days to defend their rights and demand higher wages, encouraged by recent policies from the central government aimed at protecting laborers and closing the income gap. Chinese leaders dread even the hint of Solidarity-style labor activism. But they have moved to empower workers by pushing through labor laws that signaled that central authorities would no longer tolerate poor workplace conditions, legal scholars and Chinese labor experts say.

The laws, enacted in 2008, were intended to channel worker frustrations through a system of arbitration and courts so no broader protest movements would threaten political stability.

But if recent strikes and a surge in arbitration and court cases reflect a rising worker consciousness partly rooted in awareness of greater legal rights, they also underscore new challenges in China. The labor laws have raised expectations, but still leave workers relatively powerless by Western standards. The Communist Party-run legal system cannot cope with the exploding volume of labor disputes. And legal enforcement by local officials loosened when the global economic crisis hit China and resulted in factory shutdowns.

If the expected revaluation of the renminbi, the Chinese currency, makes exports less competitive, then local officials and mainland companies may collude to ignore laws and ensure that labor costs stay low.

"It's not enough simply to rely on laws," said Liu Kaiming, the head of the Institute of Contemporary Observation, a labor advocacy organization in Shenzhen. "Laws only provide the bare minimum required."

Weaknesses include the fact that Chinese workers still do not have the right to form unions independent of the one controlled by the government. The Labor Contract Law enacted in January 2008 tries to guarantee contracts for all full-time employees, but leaves many details vague. Another law enacted in May 2008 helped streamline the system of arbitration and lawsuits, but civil courts and arbitration committees, which are made up of government employees, have been overwhelmed by a flood of cases. Meanwhile, because of lax enforcement, companies dodge other labor laws by cheating on minimum wage requirements and overtime pay.

The leap in worker consciousness is best reflected in the rising number of labor disputes that have gone to arbitration or to the courts. In 2008, the year factory shutdowns surged, nearly 700,000 labor disputes went to arbitration, almost double the number in 2007, according to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. Last year's numbers were roughly the same as those in 2008. If arbitration proves unsatisfactory, Chinese workers or employers can appeal to civil courts. In 2008, the number of labor cases in courts was 280,000, a 94 percent increase over the previous year, according to the Supreme People's Court. In the first half of 2009, there were 170,000 such cases.

"Publicity regarding the Labor Contract Law had a tremendous impact on raising worker consciousness," said Aaron Halegua, a lawyer based in New York who is a consultant on Chinese labor law. "Even if migrant workers still do not know the specific details of each of their legal rights, far more came to realize that they have rights and there are laws protecting them."

One 19-year-old worker on strike last week at the Honda Lock auto parts factory in Zhongshan said: "We heard about the new labor law, but we don't know the details. We know we should fight for our rights."

In many parts of China, there is now a backlog of labor disputes awaiting resolution. Some workers have had to wait up to a year for arbitration committees to address their complaints.

Moreover, government officials, perhaps to protect local employers, have pushed for disputes to be solved through mediation rather than reach the level of arbitration committees or courts, and they have not enforced labor laws strictly, especially in the aftermath of the mass factory closings, legal experts said. In late 2008, officials in Guangdong Province, where labor disputes are common, issued a report saying that 500 or so unofficial lawyers who represented workers were a source of growing trouble.
Western experts say if Chinese leaders were to allow independent unions, that could help defuse labor discontent. Under the current system, only the government-run union, the All-China Federation of Trade Unions, which has more than 170 million members, is permitted. The union only nominally represents workers; in practice, it has close ties with management.
The union has a wide presence in state-owned companies and has made a big push to establish branches in foreign companies — its most notable victory was unionizing Wal-Mart stores in 2006. Private Taiwanese, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese companies often do not have branches of the official union.

Early drafts of the Labor Contract Law had clauses that would have allowed for more independent unions, but those were excised from the final version, said Mary E. Gallagher, a political scientist at the University of Michigan who studies Chinese labor. The final version also left out an earlier clause that said companies had to get union approval on major workplace changes.

"I would doubt very much that the Chinese Communist Party thinks that the benefits of an independent Chinese trade union outweighs the costs or outweighs the risks," Ms. Gallagher said.

Workers for Honda in Zhongshan made the formation of an independent union one of their main demands, along with wage increases.

The main goal of the Labor Contract Law has been to ensure that full-time employees across all industries work under a contract. It also tries to mandate severance pay for contracted employees. But companies find ways around contract guarantees or wage laws.

A common complaint among laborers is lack of overtime pay when a work schedule exceeds 40 hours. Mr. Liu, the labor advocate, said his group had done a study of 210 factories in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta that showed 90 percent of those factories cheat on overtime: they often reported employees as working eight-hour days even when the hours were much longer. Thus, the salaries were much more generous on paper than in reality.

At the Gloria Plaza Hotel in Beijing, workers took their dispute with management to the streets on May 27. The company that owns the hotel plans to tear it down and lay off the workers. Although the company had said the workers would get the minimum severance pay required by law, the employees complained that that was far too low. "They are a state-owned enterprise, they have the money, but they don't care about us at all," said one woman who declined to be named for fear of retribution.

 

[Daredevil]

Chinese GDP thread merged with Chinese Economy thread.

 

[Armand2REP]

Inner Mongolia is rich in resources like coal, minerals, and even wind power and wool (Erdos) Besides it is vast but its population is scarcely spread (relatively). The old impression of 'Gobi' or desert is misleading.

u certainly know more than I do about what GDP per capita is about, hardly reflecting actual 'living standard' especially for such resource-intensive areas.

u may also have been some countries such as Turkey, which also has a >10K usd per capita. What about those people outside main metropolis??

IM isn't generating much income from power generation. All the rural people have to burn cow dung because they are not allowed to cut down trees or it will desertify the land. The government has given them solar water heaters. It is quit laughable how weak they are, the people say it is better just to leave it out in the sun. The thing about IM is that the CCP and local government has a tonne of projects but they end up half finished or empty. Ordos is the biggest example with an entire city built for people who can't afford to move into it. Suprisingly that isn't the only example, Qingshuihe spent a couple billion dollars to move their new town and now it is empty. Hotels pop-up in the middle of nowhere. Billions have been spent trying to bring about windfarms but there is still no major success. Today it only generates 4.3 million kilowatts which is only enough to power 200 US homes. Coal output is 260 million tonnes a year. At $30 dollars per tonne that only comes to $8 billion. CCP is saying GDP is $142 billion, I am telling you there is not that much money up there, that place is dirt poor. 23 million people live on a couple thousand a year. That GDP figure is bloated by a factor of two.

 

[amoy]

More than u told abt Inner Mongolia - we drink Yili or Mengniu milk /yogurt, and wear Erdos sweaters, all from I. M.!

Baotou and Hohott are well developed. It's not unique of China - divided - well developed cities vs. underdeveloped rural / pasturing areas.

U gave a few failing examples - abuse of investment - like

Qingshuihe spent a couple billion dollars to move their new town and now it is empty

at least u admit 'a couple billion' --- meaning at least there's such a funding (where does the money come from if I.M. is a total fiasco???)

And -
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Economy

Farming of crops such as wheat takes precedence along the river valleys. In the more arid grasslands, herding of goats, sheep and so on is a traditional method of subsistence. Forestry and hunting are somewhat important in the Greater Khingan ranges in the east. Reindeer herding is carried out by Evenks in the Evenk Autonomous Banner. More recently, growing grapes and winemaking have become an economic factor in the Wuhai area.


Inner Mongolian TheaterInner Mongolia has abundance of resources especially coal, cashmere, natural gas, rare earth elements, and has more deposits of naturally occurring niobium, zirconium and beryllium than any other province-level region in China. However in the past, the exploitation and utilisation of resources were rather inefficient, which resulted in poor returns from rich resources. Inner Mongolia is also an important coal production base in north China. It plans to double annual coal output by 2010 (from the 2005 volume of 260 million tons) to 500 million tons of coal a year.[5]


Inner Mongolian GymIndustry in Inner Mongolia has grown up mainly around coal, power generation, forestry-related industries, and so forth. Inner Mongolia now laid emphasis on six competitive industries, namely energy, chemicals, metallurgy, equipment manufacturing, processing of farm (including dairy) produce as well as hi-tech products. Well-known Inner Mongolian enterprises include companies such as ERDOS, Yili, and Mengniu.

The nominal GDP of Inner Mongolia in 2009 was 970 billion yuan (US$142 billion), a growth of 16.9% from 2008, with an average annual increase of 20% from the period 2003-2007. Its per capita GDP reached 37,287 yuan (US$5,460) in 2009. In 2008, Inner Mongolia's primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were worth 90.7 billion yuan, 427.1 billion yuan, and 258.4 billion yuan respectively. The urban per capita disposable income and rural per capita net income were 14,431 yuan and 4,656 yuan, up 16.6% and 17.8% respectively.[6]

As with much of China, economic growth has led to a boom in construction, including new commercial development and large apartment complexes.

As the winds in the grasslands are very strong, some private companies have set up wind parks in parts of Inner Mongolia such as Bailingmiao, Hutengliang and zhouzi.

 

[Armand2REP]

More than u told abt Inner Mongolia - we drink Yili or Mengniu milk /yogurt, and wear Erdos sweaters, all from I. M.!

The profit of YILI is 492 million RMB, that is chump change in China. 16,000 employees making $200 a month. You list three employers that provide 48,000 low paying jobs. Out of the 100,000 jobs the state run enterprises provide, there are 12 million unemployed ex-farmers and heardsmen with no land to use, it has turned to desert. You have to drill 1km just to hit water.

Baotou and Hohott are well developed. It's not unique of China - divided - well developed cities vs. underdeveloped rural / pasturing areas.

Developed does not mean money, there are very few cars in Hohott because people are too poor to afford them.

U gave a few failing examples - abuse of investment - like
at least u admit 'a couple billion' --- meaning at least there's such a funding (where does the money come from if I.M. is a total fiasco???)

The money came from LGIVs, the county of Qingshuihe is now bankrupt and construction on the town has stopped indefinitely. The people suffer as their is no money for social welfare, the old town is still a dump and no money to fix it.

And -
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Don't waste your time quoting wiki, more CCP fuzzy math. The three top companies revenue is only 36b RMB or less than $6 billion. All non-energy SOEs combined make $10 billion. Coal production makes $8 billion. Wind power at 4.2m kw/h isn't even worth mentioning. The economies of these dirty dusty towns are similar to African standards. The vast majority of people raise cattle and they live on subsistence. Farming has just about died out with all the desertification. Add 23 million people living on $2000 a year, being generous for most only makes a GDP of $46 billion, add the SOEs and coal brings it to $64 billion. There is very little merchandise moving off the shelves of IM so maybe add $12 billion to be generous again to $88 billion. Where does the CCP come up with this extra $64 billion? No HSR in IM. The solar and wind projects haven't even got off the ground yet. Don't see many cars even in the most developed parts of IM like the empty streets of Hohott. Only thing left is construction, oh yes, the empty cities of Ordos and Qingshuihe. The empty stadiums of Hohott. It all becomes clear now, a bunch of construction to boost numbers, nothing new there. That is what CCP does but even those numbers are inflated as much of the construction has already stopped.

 

[badguy2000]

That map is screwed up, there is no way Inner Mongolia has a $5000-10000 per capita GDP. Those are among the poorest people on the planet.

Inner mongoia has been growing fastest province in the past decade. both you and your information is outdated,guy!

 

[badguy2000]

If you have ever been to IM you will notice it is full of a bunch of broke farmers whose crops have dried up and heardsman whose cattle have starved. Most of them have left for the coast of China or Russia long ago.

guy, Chinese richest city is neither Shanghai nor Hongkong. it is Ordos city in Inner mongolia.

IM now is new rich,due to is raw resource.

 

[Armand2REP]

guy, Chinese richest city is neither Shanghai nor Hongkong. it is Ordos city in Inner mongolia.

IM now is new rich,due to is raw resource.

You mean the empty city of Ordos that no one can afford to live in?

 

[badguy2000]

You mean the empty city of Ordos that no one can afford to live in?

haha,in fact, almost all buildings in Ordos have been sold out, you should read more

the per capital nominal GDP of Ordos has surpass Hongkongese.

 

[nimo_cn]

You mean the empty city of Ordos that no one can afford to live in?

You are right, the new town of Ordos is an empty city. That just indicates how rich Ordos is, they can waste billions of dollars to build an empty city. I am not proud of their squandermania, but yes, they are rich.