China Economy: News & Discussion

[ym888]

No list or ranking garbage. But on the ground innovations by Switzerland in pharmaceuticals, precision tools, lenses, power equipment, railway engineering etc. ABB that powers most of the high voltage transmission in your country is Swiss. The technology that you use to tunnel or build highways etc is Austrian and German. the Scandinavian countries are the original innovators of cellular networks, operating systems. Nokia and Motorola hold the original patents to key cell phone and network technologies, and are making money all the time. Google acquired Motorola and Microsoft acquired Nokia, only for their patents portfolio. Japanese, Dutch and American patents in semiconductors are massively valuable. Almost all of the lifesaving biomedical patents are in the west, Israel or India. Now those are powerful patent portfolios. Huawe’s patents are low value.
Most of American companies value comes from their intellectual property. 70-80% of NASDAQ’s value comes from IP. China simply cannot compete in innovation under CCP, no matter the PR and shortcuts. CCP and innovation are like oil and water. They don’t mix.

No one denies Switzerland's strength.



But a small country is a small country and a big country is a big country.



Can Singapore be compared with India

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

No one denies Switzerland's strength.



But a small country is a small country and a big country is a big country.



Can Singapore be compared with India

In innovation? Yes they can be. Tiny Israel is an innovation superpower which became wealthier than oil producing Gulf. UAE just ended their isolation with Israel as they realize where the real value comes from. Now UAE is also trying to become a technology power in the gulf including wanting to have a strong space capability.

 

[rockdog]

The inside source is an executive in Shenzhen Huawei.

Huawei's top brass always have the "sense of survive", they like to describe the situation as tough as possible. They are not public corporate, so those wording won't affect stock price.

Even on the most fast growing era, Huawei's founder Mr. Ren worte a book with name of "Huawei's Winter".

Ren Zhengfei: Huawei's winter winter philosophy only person to survive the anxiety(Chinese Edition)

You may never understand oriental culture, those sense of survive also applies in Japan, Korea, HK, TW ...

Please kindly check this chart.

Key Takeaways - 2021 Total Telecom Equipment Market - Dell'Oro Group

Preliminary estimates suggest the overall telecom equipment market advanced 7% in 2021, recording a fourth consecutive year of growth, underpinned by surging wireless revenues and healthy demand for wireline-related equipment spurred on by double-digit growth both in RAN and Broadband Access...

www.delloro.com

 

[ym888]

In innovation? Yes they can be. Tiny Israel is an innovation superpower which became wealthier than oil producing Gulf. UAE just ended their isolation with Israel as they realize where the real value comes from. Now UAE is also trying to become a technology power in the gulf including wanting to have a strong space capability.

Small countries like Israel and Switzerland are very innovative, relative to their small populations,



But it's not big enough to compare with the big countries,



Countries with high gdp per capita are not necessarily the countries with the highest gdp

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Small countries like Israel and Switzerland are very innovative, relative to their small populations,



But it's not big enough to compare with the big countries,



Countries with high gdp per capita are not necessarily the countries with the highest gdp

Does not matter what you say. There is irrefutable evidence on the ground that innovation is impossible under the CCP - a major reason for IP stealing and the criminal thousand talents program. China has not even innovated as much as small countries do. Now that most of the thousand talents people have been arrested/jailed and technology has been denied even by formerly lenient countries like Germany, we are going to witness a much weaker CCP closing down its wolf warriors and receding behind a curtain. This all is bad for the Chinese people but great for the world.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Small countries like Israel and Switzerland are very innovative, relative to their small populations,



But it's not big enough to compare with the big countries,



Countries with high gdp per capita are not necessarily the countries with the highest gdp

China has both a large population and two of the three top innovation centers in the world! And it is doing this while still a developing country. When it is developed with the per capita income of Hong Kong no one would come close.

The Chinese clusters are also in close proximity with the Japanese and Korean clusters. They are interconnected by culture and travel and business so they are an East Asian super cluster.

Global Innovation Index’s Global Science & Technology Clusters: East Asia Dominates Top Ranking

Four of the world’s five biggest science and technology clusters are located in East Asia – one in Japan, three in China and the fifth in the United States - according to an early release from the 2022 edition of WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII).

www.wipo.int

Global Innovation Index’s Global Science & Technology Clusters: East Asia Dominates Top Ranking

Geneva, September 14, 2022
PR/2022/894

Four of the world’s five biggest science and technology clusters are located in East Asia – one in Japan, two in China, one in Republic of Korea and the fifth in the United States – according to an early release from the 2022 edition of WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII).

Tokyo-Yokohama is the biggest cluster, followed by the Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou (China and Hong Kong, China), Beijing (China), Seoul (Republic of Korea) and San Jose-San Francisco (United States) clusters.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

I think people try to use "innovation" as a coping mechanism because they cannot hope to match China in industrial production -- "yes, they can make things but they cannot innovate!"

Very silly. China is a developing nation but it is the only developing nation ranked in the top 13. It is actually above Japan which is a very innovative country.

And Israel? China is way above them in innovations. And what's more, China has its own "Israel" in Hong Kong (which is also above Israel!)

 

[Kshatriya87]

I think people try to use "innovation" as a coping mechanism because they cannot hope to match China in industrial production -- "yes, they can make things but they cannot innovate!"

Very silly. China is a developing nation but it is the only developing nation ranked in the top 13. It is actually above Japan which is a very innovative country.

And Israel? China is way above them in innovations. And what's more, China has its own "Israel" in Hong Kong (which is also above Israel!)

View attachment 188945

Good logic. Now lets apply the same logic to India.

In Global Innovation Index, India was at 81st place in 2015 and is at 46th place in 2021. Thats a jump of 35 places in 6 years.

The official statement further mentioned that India has been on a rising path over the past several years in the Global Innovation Index as the country has risen from ranking 81 in the year 2015 to 46 in 2021.

India Becoming a Hub of Innovation!

Climbs to 46th rank in the Global Innovation Index of @WIPO, a leap of 35 places in just 6 years.

Global Innovation Index 2021: India ranks 46th, Switzerland tops innovation index ranking (jagranjosh.com)

On the other hand, China was at 29th place in 2015 and is at 13th place in 2021. Thats a jump of 16 places in 6 years.

wipo_pub_gii_2015-intro5.pdf

All this, when China's GDP is 4 times more than India's. Imagine what will happen when this gap closes.

At this rate, India can surpass China's ranking in this index in a few years.

oping mechanism because they cannot hope to match China in industrial production

Don't just blindly assume that no one can match China. Give it time. All your apprehensions will come crushing down as India grows economically and militarily.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Good logic. Now lets apply the same logic to India.

In Global Innovation Index, India was at 81st place in 2015 and is at 46th place in 2021. Thats a jump of 35 places in 6 years.

The official statement further mentioned that India has been on a rising path over the past several years in the Global Innovation Index as the country has risen from ranking 81 in the year 2015 to 46 in 2021.


Global Innovation Index 2021: India ranks 46th, Switzerland tops innovation index ranking (jagranjosh.com)

On the other hand, China was at 29th place in 2015 and is at 13th place in 2021. Thats a jump of 16 places in 6 years.

wipo_pub_gii_2015-intro5.pdf

All this, when China's GDP is 4 times more than India's. Imagine what will happen when this gap closes.

At this rate, India can surpass China's ranking in this index in a few years.



Don't just blindly assume that no one can match China. Give it time. All your apprehensions will come crushing down as India grows economically and militarily.

Good luck to India! I think China would welcome India's growth as an economy. China is a trading nation and a wealthier India would mean more exports!

The world right now has two innovation centers, the one in the West (US/EU) and the one in East Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, HK, RoC.) It would be nice if South Asia could rise up as another center!

 

[Kshatriya87]

Good luck to India! I think China would welcome India's growth as an economy. China is a trading nation and a wealthier India would mean more exports!

The world right now has two innovation centers, the one in the West (US/EU) and the one in East Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, HK, RoC.) It would be nice if South Asia could rise up as another center!

Thanks. Exports could go both ways by the way.

 

[srevster]

China has plenty of good research. Especially in AV, Robotics and Internet Apps. They also have an aggressive marketshare approach. The state heavily subsidizes customer acquisition.

this model is only sustainable to catch up to the likes of the US but not lead. For that, Chinese need a heterogeneous society with divergent strategies.

Chinese can basically out optimize even the original inventors since they have access to better manufacturing infrastructure. However, they are not better at coming up with new novel approaches by themselves that are successful. They typically take the best ideas from elsewhere and make them more scalable, often crushing the competition through aggressive pricing and market acquisition

for India to compete, it needs a very aggressive VC community and banks that subsidize growth to acquire market share. We aren’t quite there yet and we might take a different path altogether. But I’m very interested in how the next decade will play out.

 

[ym888]

I think people try to use "innovation" as a coping mechanism because they cannot hope to match China in industrial production -- "yes, they can make things but they cannot innovate!"

Very silly. China is a developing nation but it is the only developing nation ranked in the top 13. It is actually above Japan which is a very innovative country.

And Israel? China is way above them in innovations. And what's more, China has its own "Israel" in Hong Kong (which is also above Israel!)

View attachment 188945

The one you reposted is from 2021



Here are the rankings for 2022

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

I think people try to use "innovation" as a coping mechanism because they cannot hope to match China in industrial production -- "yes, they can make things but they cannot innovate!"

Very silly. China is a developing nation but it is the only developing nation ranked in the top 13. It is actually above Japan which is a very innovative country.

And Israel? China is way above them in innovations. And what's more, China has its own "Israel" in Hong Kong (which is also above Israel!)

View attachment 188945

This is the WORST argument I have seen in quite a while. A lot of ASEAN countries like Malaysia have already shown production based output. So China is doing nothing new. It is just doing it at a higher scale. These rankings above are based on volumes of papers published and patents filed, which are so not indicative of real innovation. Both can be gamed and that is exactly what CCP does. It pays money to game these metrics. Whereas other countries have an organic rise. The CCP’s gaming of world bank’s ease of doing business ranking is what led the WB to stop publishing that ranking.
There is zero evidence to show that there is any worthwhile research coming out of Chinese universities. In fact the professors in these universities themselves admit to being bribed to put out substandard research papers (Link I shared earlier). The audacity of CCP bootlickers like this poster to outright lie in Indian forums is shocking. On the ground reality is small countries like Israel have several times more innovation output than China. The Israeli companies hold much more valuable patents than Chinese do. Why? Innovation is impossible under the CCP.
Japan, S.Korea, India, Hong Kong (no longer?) are free and open societies and that’s where more innovation is actually coming from. In India’s case, the mushrooming of global R&D centers is testimony to that. Australian Universities also do pathbreaking innovation by the way like in Quantum Computing.
Simply assembling things (however sophisticated that thing is) is NOT core innovation. Lol.
Path breaking innovation is simply impossible in a directed economy plus the CCP is all about showboating to show they are “like” the west. In reality, they are just a massive machine that overproduces everything just like the 65 million empty apartments.
‘The real clincher is the number of Chinese arrested for theft. 50% of IP theft mailings in the US are that of Chinese (link shared earlier citing FBI). That alone is solid proof that Chinese have zero faith in their own R&D capabilities.
‘This poster is one audacious liar who deserves to be kicked out of this forum for repeated lying and obfuscation.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

The one you reposted is from 2021



Here are the rankings for 2022

View attachment 188976

Even this shows that China’s ranking mostly comes from flaky, game-able metrics like creative output, business sophistication etc. The only real metric that matters is the valuation of a publicly listed company or private orgs that comes from its IP. We all know what happened to the Kirin chip from Huawei. Once the US cut off technology, the value of Kirin became zero. That is the on the ground impact. Lol.

 

[ym888]

Using 81 indicators, this ranking is more complicated than you might think.

This is by an organization in Switzerland

You don't like this ranking?

@RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Using 81 indicators, this ranking is more complicated than you might think.

This is by an organization in Switzerland

You don't like this ranking?

@RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

Read this analysis to understand why GII needs to be taken with a jug of salt. Read the disclaimers. Countries like China are gaming it as the metrics coming out of China are the least transparent and reliable. The analysts who put them together don’t put any efforts into seeing whether an indicator is actually relevant or not. The difference here is China is a big outlier. It is the only country in the top 50 whose metrics cannot be trusted. But analysts just use it with a giant disclaimer. These orgs must only rank countries with transparent and reliable data. Otherwise the rankings lose meaning like what happened with the EoDB rankings.

Why I have a problem with the Global Innovation Index - Idea to Value

The 2016 Global Innovation Index has just been released, highlighting the innovative rank of every country in the world. Unfortunately, it has major flaws

www.ideatovalue.com

 

[ym888]

Read this analysis to understand why GII needs to be taken with a jug of salt. Read the disclaimers. Countries like China are gaming it as the metrics coming out of China are the least transparent and reliable. The analysts who put them together don’t put any efforts into seeing whether an indicator is actually relevant or not. The difference here is China is a big outlier. It is the only country in the top 50 whose metrics cannot be trusted. But analysts just use it with a giant disclaimer. These orgs must only rank countries with transparent and reliable data. Otherwise the rankings lose meaning like what happened with the EoDB rankings.

Why I have a problem with the Global Innovation Index - Idea to Value

The 2016 Global Innovation Index has just been released, highlighting the innovative rank of every country in the world. Unfortunately, it has major flaws

www.ideatovalue.com

Please recommend a ranking that you think is credible

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Please recommend a ranking that you think is credible

Any and all rankings with data only from nations with high transparency or properly measured. The transparency of data is monitored by IMF or WB I think. The Chinese have gotten so focused on these ranking lists like a maniac. The CCP wants to go up the rankings just for show. it has no intention to build anything tangible. Bribe the WB for EoDB rankings, why?
Also rankings are meaningless. They are academic. Investments are made with expert advice from investment bankers and VC experts who know the situation on the ground. IP valuations are done by professional appraisers based on which someone invests.
‘The reality is many IP are private in nature and their valuations are not known. Many people who invented things like microwave are dead and their families receive royalties now. So, it is impossible to quantify the value of IP that comes from a certain country. Also, most sane countries know that the IP was created through collaboration between various countries universities and R&D labs. If you noticed no country other than China keeps trumpeting about these rankings every moment. It is a sort of inferiority complex from the CCP. Real IP powerhouses like Israel just deliver innovation-they don’t care about these academic rankings. Same in the US. No one cares.
The more China keeps trumpeting these gamed or incorrect academic rankings, everyone will note that the CCP claims are even more hollow. After the CCP bribed WB officials to falsely go up the EoDB rankings, no one believes in Chinese positions in any of these global rankings, even if academic.
India no longer believes in any numbers coming out of China and that is why the government does not cite any numbers from China even for academic benchmarks.
Things have gotten worse now with the CCP publishing fraudulent Wuhan virus death numbers. Even WHO which is pro China has stated the Chinese numbers cannot be trusted. EU countries don’t even believe in the RT PCR test results provided by Chinese travelers to the EU. Such is the lack of trust in CCP. You can be 100% certain that no one will use these rankings for countries with history of committing ranking frauds like China. End of story.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Thanks. Exports could go both ways by the way.

Indeed. A lot of Asian countries and Australia run big trade surpluses with China in fact. You just need the right mix of products in demand!

 

[SexyChineseLady]

China has plenty of good research. Especially in AV, Robotics and Internet Apps. They also have an aggressive marketshare approach. The state heavily subsidizes customer acquisition.

this model is only sustainable to catch up to the likes of the US but not lead. For that, Chinese need a heterogeneous society with divergent strategies.

Chinese can basically out optimize even the original inventors since they have access to better manufacturing infrastructure. However, they are not better at coming up with new novel approaches by themselves that are successful. They typically take the best ideas from elsewhere and make them more scalable, often crushing the competition through aggressive pricing and market acquisition

for India to compete, it needs a very aggressive VC community and banks that subsidize growth to acquire market share. We aren’t quite there yet and we might take a different path altogether. But I’m very interested in how the next decade will play out.

Good post! But optimizations that result in mass production are innovations as well. What allowed China to build 70% of the global HSR, EV, etc. components were the results of many new materials, tools and processes invented in China and unlikely to be replicated elsewhere. Even in the developed world.

These changes (innovations by any other word) are the results from the evolution of both private (marketplace) and state innovation systems. It is a mouthful but it is best exemplified here by China's advance on AI:

China's catching-up in artificial intelligence seen as a co-evolution of corporate and national innovation systems

Inspired by Christopher Freeman's work on how radical technical change opens up for shifts in world leadership and on the role of innovation systems i…

www.sciencedirect.com

You'll eventually see innovations like this in the industries of nuclear power, aircraft engines and semiconductors as well. It is a matter of time.

Obviously China is innovating on a grand scale. And EVERY chart on innovation has China among the countries at the top -- and always being the only developing country.

If China cannot innovate then why would the US bother putting bans on satellites, space launches, silicon chips, etc. on China? Why target a company like Huawei!

Because Huawei was at the forefront of telecom innovations and has the patents to prove it. If Huawei were not innovative then it would have died three years ago when the US banned it from any of its technology. Huawei is just the tip of the iceberg. There are legions of Chinese tech companies behind Huawei.

Another example is the Chinese space program. All these US bans resulted in a solely owned Chinese Space station that the US doesn't have and a Mars program that in one go put a rover on Mars -- basically doing something that took NASA decades to do.

On its first try, China's Zhurong rover hit a Mars milestone that took NASA decades

China’s Zhurong rover landed safely on Mars on May 15, making China only the third country to successfully land a rover on the red planet.

www.space.com

Now NASA is taking "inspiration" from the Chinese rover

Nasa’s new rover an imitation of China’s Mars robot, scientists say

The US has long accused China of stealing space technology, but Artemis programme’s VIPER appears to borrow from Chinese rover Zhu Rong, which features caterpillar-inspired suspension system.

www.scmp.com