The spate of terror attacks in Kashmir in the past 12 hours would not have surprised security forces and the administration. Striking in Kashmir ahead of a VIP visit or an important event is an old ploy of the terrorists. But this year there was another compelling reason for their desperation.
For the past few days, many people in the security forces, administration and the media were talking about the inevitability of an attack in the Valley and a major operation in Srinagar. Two forthcoming events -- the third phase of polling and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's proposed Srinagar visit -- had forced the hand of the terrorists and if they had not acted now, it would have led to long-term consequences that would have undermined the cause of the militants and their benefactors.
Terrorists act whenever they fear a breakthrough in Kashmir: India-Pakistan dialogue, a new confidence building measure or any government step whose success might indicate that normalcy is returning to Kashmir.
In April 2005, when the Srinagar-Muzzafarabad bus service was to be flagged off by the then PM Manmohan Singh, two terrorists attacked the Tourist Reception Centre in Srinagar, where those scheduled to travel on the inaugural bus were put up.
The start of the bus service was seen as a major step forward for the normalization of the India-Pakistan relation; a development that would not have been acceptable to hardliners, separatists and their patrons across the border.
But a bigger threat is emerging this year with the enthusiastic participation of Kashmiris in the ongoing Assembly elections. Analysts ascribe different reasons—more than 70 percent so far—to the high turnout in the first two phases.
But such nit-picking and micro-analysis doesn't help the cause of those who argue that India is forcibly occupying Kashmir. For the international community, the extraordinary polling figures — even higher than the voting in Jharkhand where elections are being held simultaneously — and visuals of Kashmiris queuing up outside booths in remote areas are irrefutable signs that people are participating in a democratic exercise held under the Indian Constitution.
Even separatist leaders are perplexed by the development and many of them have been reluctant to vigorously implement a poll boycott, afraid that in spite of their efforts the numbers could be very high.
The third phase of polling, scheduled on 9 December, is the last opportunity for those keen to keep voters away from booths. This round of polling would be followed by voting in the urban constituencies of the Valley, including the Hurriyat strongholds of Srinagar, where the percentage has always been low. If Kashmir's urban voters also come out in large numbers this year, it would be a telling blow to the hardliners. So, every effort is on to ensure they stay home, either by choice or because of fear.
The other reason, obviously, is Modi's proposed rally in Srinagar on Monday. The BJP is hoping that around one lakh Kashmiris would attend it. Many Hurriyat leaders have called for a boycott. The stakes are high and nobody can afford to lose this battle that would be beamed live across India and many other countries.
Even if elections were not around, even if the polling percentage in the first two phases was low, militants would still have struck on the eve of a VIP visit. It ensures that terrorists get round the clock coverage, which is always one of the major objectives of such strikes.
The perpetrators of terror attacks also hope that their act would put doubts in the minds of the visiting VIP. This strategy has, however, seldom worked.
In 2005, Manmohan Singh did not cancel his plan to flag off the bus to Muzzafarabad. Knowing Modi, he would already be itching to take the first flight to Srinagar.
