Read between the lines---- "Wish we had the Rafale" and the "LCA will remain a modest platform even with uprated engine(my God even the uprated engine hope he does not mean F414)"----- Does this leave any doubt in anyone's mind how vital MRCA procuement is?
I said it then and I say it again -Rafale will walk away with the MRCA contract. Thanks officer for spilling the beans
U really think calling for order of 126 planes is going to turn around our security environment in a jiffy, there are lot more factors than that. see my quoting of the FONA in my previous quote.
I like to post a previous post of mine, since this has come to MMRCA VS LCA
The reason why MMRCA is looking so blurry right now is because IAF seems to be retiring jets faster than inducting any new ones. Except for the heavy sector, all the rest are in shambles. Unless and until the decision comes out in March 2011, we cannot say for sure. As must as I would hate to say this, the possible winner is F/A-18 since some reports cited "TOT problems" which only American companies can have as all others are bending backwards for tech transfer for the deal. I pray hope I am wrong here through.
IAF to achieve 34 fighter squadron strength by 2017
http://www.equitybulls.com/admin/news2006/news_det.asp?id=45847
We will be retiring unupgraded 80 mig-21, unupgraded 30 soviet supplied mig-27 and first 50 british supplied jaguars. Essentially 160 aircraft are retiring.
We have 130 Su-30 now, So 140 more to be produced to reach 270 for 15 squadrons, 140 jaguars upgraded will make up 7 squadrons, 140 upgraded Mig-27 will make up 7 more and 120 mig-21 bison will make up 6 squadrons. Totalling 35 squadrons, The MMRCA doesn't have any Space to squeeze in till 2017. Even the LCA has been a bonus of 2 squadrons, from this we can see the airforce doesn't have a plan for LCA Tejas or MMRCA at all. The institution is full of ad hocism and it shows no signs of redemption.
The phase of Fifth generation commences with FGFA
http://www.india-defence.com/reports-4230
Indian Air Force Targets 42 Squadrons Strength by 2022
Indian Air Force Targets 42 Squadrons Strength by 2022 2009-02-18 Defence Minister A K Antony today said that by the end of the 13th Plan period, Indian Air Force's combat fleet would be of 42 squadrons, which is more than the strength sanctioned by the Government.
"During the period 2007-2022, the strength at the end of 11th, 12th and 13th Plan periods is expected to increase to 35.5, 35 and 42 squadrons respectively," Antony said in a written reply to a query in Rajya Sabha. Government has sanctioned the IAF to have a total of 39.5 squadrons of fighter aircraft.
He said that the air force will reach the peak of strength with the induction of Su-30 MKIs, Jaguars, Medium Multi-role Combat Aircraft (M-MRCA), Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) and the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). Antony said at the beginning of the 11th Plan period, the force had only 32 squadrons.
Defence Minister added that the the IAF was in the process of carrying out upgrades in its existing fleet of Mirage 2000, MiG 21, MiG 27, MiG 29 and Jaguar fighter aircraft and adding force multipliers such as the Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) and mid-air refueling aircraft.
- From 2017, we will retire 120 mig-21 bison.
- Planned from 2020 140 mig-27 , but I doubt it can withstand such extension, the replacement might start sooner by 2017.
- Jaguar retirement starts by 2020
Essentially discounting the 140 Jaguars being put off till 2022, we have the airforce looking to replace 120 Mig-21 and atleast a 140 mig-27.
How many planes their plans afford for them to induct at hand? 100 LCA Tejas mk-2, MMRCA 126 and perhaps First 50 FGFA.
Thats Essentially 3 new platforms entering about the same time with established platforms leaving abruptly, they would progress about the same time, go to TACDE the same time, its not just a spare parts logistucs nightmare, the operational capability too would be seriously affected.
We must remember that 126 is a small number but each of these jets perform the functions of a MiG-27 and a MiG-29 combined in one platform--air and ground and with its latest tech, reduces the need for massive orders. Though I am pretty sure that IAF will take the order to 200 with its 74 optional buys. Russia would be least upset for losing out because 272 MKIs +250-300 PAKFA/FGFAs is in their bags already. Since we have discussed to death what we all want, I won't highlight that.
A combined Mig-27&mig-29 has already been combined with Su-30 MKI with the best results. Any new platform would necesarily be only a western duplicate equivalent or cheap inferior platform to Su-30 mki.
Reliance on sole source? Its not about Russia at all, if there was any war, Our Su-30 mki, would be supplied spares by HAL, as I see companies like Samtel entering the fray. By most accounts, after production ceases all the Spares and Support would be completely Indan. The missiles themselves R-77, Novator K-100 and most Russian weapons are manufactured in India. We will only bind ourselves if we go for Mig-35 with 60% TOT. Everyone is talking about TOT, the TOT necessorily revolves around Radar for source codes for strategic autonomy and Engine for HAL to learn Engine manufacturing, I'm not even going to comment on the 74+ because there is no more room for new old hags after 2022 in IAF 5th generation recruitment, except may be some middle aged Tejas mk-2 due to GOI/ADA/DRDO pressure.
In fact, worldwide MMRCAs are not going very fast either. Brazil has held its decision until next year; Switzerland is furiously debating on its 3 final contenders and kept it to last year; Austria is putting it on hold, Greece is still in the beginning stage etc. So I don't think we are the only ones slow here; also to consider that our order is the heaviest than all of these combined.
Why should we care about those far off nations fare in the Defence realm? Our security concerns are China with J-10 and J-11 and Pakistan with JF-17 and F-16. I don't have a clue about china, mostly the IAF doesn't do either. As far as I know pakistanis have planned for 150 more JF-17 jets, 36 J-10 and upto 100 F-16 by 2017. Thats about 286 combat Jets. Estimating that we need to field 39 squadrons against pakistan's 22. We should hvae fielded 507 4 gen combat planes, deducting 270 Su-30, 51 M2k and 69 mig-29 smt. We should have fielded 107 more planes. Now that we have bonus of 2 tejas mk-1 squadrons, the number of deficit is bought down by 67, Had the IAF made some sensible planes to induct 60 more LCA with perhaps levcons like naval version to improve turn rate or some technology from the existing twin-seater variant and naval variant, the next batch of 60 tejas could have held fort the attriction till 2017 before Tejas mk-2 arrives. But for whatever reason they they are always obliged for a foreign solution.
Like one IAF officer of very high rank admitted "
For better or worse HAL is their Indian partner and they will work with them towoards end of mordernisation" This methodology has doomed them from the start and still they continue to prefer this route based on its maturity and trust. HAL defeintely serves to gain more than ADA from MMRCA, if there was no MMRCA some quick fix engineering work of Tejas mk-1 would have been assigned to ADA for bringing Tejas mk-1 to progressively to IAF standards by batches till mk-2 development is complete, but for HAL it would have to change tooling frequently to produce a low cost plane that doesn't necessarily reflect in its profit book; if MMRCA goes through for HAL, not only does it get more oders for a costly plane, it gets technology to build engines and the licence to brag about it in its website how they posses some state of art technology of western origin in its arsenal.
The way this acquisition is going only remains me of a suitable carollary "
while the government/Bureaucrats are asleep on MMRCA files, the IAF f**** with LCA Tejas and the future Indian security scenario is in deep deep S*** "
I agree the IAF is losing combat jets to retirement fast and there are lapses in the air security blanket, But the MMRCA is not an apt solution to the emerging scenario.
