Military Deployment
It is necessary to understand some of the unique features of military deployment in Tibet in order to understand this paper better.
1. Military Regions. PLA has seven military regions. Lanzhou Military Region with Ari Military Sub District is responsible for Ngari area (western Tibet). Chengdu Military Region has Tibet Military Dist for rest of Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR).
1 Availability of Troops in Tibet. Due to harsh environment and high cost of logistics, permanent deployment of troops in Tibet is restricted to two independent infantry Brigades, border regiments independent battalions and Para military troops. This is approximately total of 60 000 troops. This force is considered adequate for limited operations to occupy un held/ lightly held frontiers of India. For additional tasks, reinforcements of six to eight divisions are sought from Chengdu and Lanzhou Military Regions. In pre Olympics riots in Tibet plateau in 2008 and in previous occasions additional troops were mobilized from these military regions. In addition, PLA has rapid reaction brigades in each group armies at the military regions. These are based on air transportation. PLA has recently tested deployment of some of the rapid reaction brigades of military regions in a high altitude area in TAR. For any limited war against India this potential might be sufficient.
We may also note that there is no shortage of troops in PRC. The limitation is logistics and restricted deployment areas in border regions. This restricts the total induction to about 30 to 35 Divisions. ( 6/7 Group Armies). China is expected to use the full potential of as many combat divisions only in an all out war. The total war may be in all sectors the main thrust would be to capture an important area which achieves their political objective and justify the war. It does not require much guess that such objective may be Tawang/Arunachal Pradesh.
2. Induction of Troops. The substantial recent improvement of rail, road and air arteries has made the induction and sustenance of troops from main land to bases in Tibet easier and less time consuming than it was few years back. There are three main highways viz, northern, eastern and western, to Tibet and rail from main land to Lhasa. Aksai Chin road is very important for induction and maintenance from Xinjiang Military Region to Ngari area in western Tibet.
However, the difficulty in moving forward and maintenance of such a force from bases in Tibet, like Lhasa and Shigatse, to road heads and beyond in Himalayas still persists. Thus the forward movement will be slow and in echelons.
3. Air Capability . Since all airfields in Tibet are in high altitude, combat efficiency of load carrying and range of their fighters and transport aircrafts is reduced. Indian Air Force operating from lower airfields have longer range and more load carrying capacity.
4. Limited Campaigning season. Due to heavy snow and rain in the combat zone in high Himalayas the logistical build up and combat is severely restricted between mid Dec to mid Aug. Thus the ideal campaigning period available is from mid Aug to mid Dec ie about 120 days are available in a calendar year.
Logistics Simplified
1 A daily maintenance of PLA division of ten to fifteen thousand troops in moderate combat role may require 300 tons. Thirty Divisions will require 9000 tons per day. The road capacity of three main highways is approx 8000 tons to 10,000 tons per day. Thus, daily capacity of three highways almost meets the daily requirement of 30 divisions at 300 tons per day for 120 days. The stocks already held are available as reserves and for civilian population.
2. PLA would stockpile for a further period of 120 days for 30 Divisions for contingencies. This requirement may be less ie 100 tons per day per division. They would also need to maintain civilian population. All of this would need approximately 100 tons per division per day for 120 days. This can be done in approx 30 days. 100x120= 12,000 tons per division. For 30 Divisions= 3,60,000 tons. Divided by carrying capacity of 10,000 tons per day. Thus approximately 30 to 35 days are required for stocking for contingencies.
3.
PLA would use extensively recently built railways to Lhasa for induction of troops. It is 58 hour ( approximately two days )journey from Beijing and one train can take 900 passengers which mean a battalion. At present two/three trains are running every day. It is assumed PLA can mobilize 10 trains per day. Division will take 20 trains and group army of 4 divisions will require 140 trains. With turn around time of four days about one division from mainland to Lhasa in six- eight days carrying essential infantry arms and ammunition. Gp Army will take 20-25 days. Heavy equipment, guns and engineer equipment can follow by freight trains and by road. Essential troops are expected to move by air. Acclimatisation and move forward to deployment areas would be done in this period.
4. PLA is likely to move a group army of four divisions in maximum of 30-40 days, roads for pre combat stocking, railway for induction of troops, simultaneously. Airforce is likely to be used for initial echelons and rapid reaction brigades. Let us assume move forward from Lhasa-Shigatse to road head and beyond to concentration areas at the border will take another 15 to 20 days. Even then 60 to 75 days of ideal combat period , at a rough estimate, is available in same season.
The full mobilization of 30-35 divisions from main land right up to concentration areas would now take about 50-60 days which earlier used to take more than 120 days. It is reduced to almost half primarily with rail to Lhasa. It is likely to be further reduced with extension of rail and road in forward areas.
5. This has an important military dimension. PLA can move its full combat potential of 30-35 Divisions in same season with availability of adequate reserves for 120 days and 60-75 days of ideal campaigning period. For limited operations employing about 8 to 10 Divisions there are in any case enough resources and time in the same season.
6. The warning period available is thus considerably reduced.
Mobilisation of 30/35 Divisions to Tibet
Stocking by road 30 days Simultaneously
Induction of tps to Lhasa/Shigatse by rail 30 days
Move fwd to Rd Heads/ Conc Areas by road 20 days
Time taken approx 50 - 60 days
Ideal Campaigning Period 120 days
Ideal Period available for combat
in same season 60 - 70 days
Earlier assessment was for most of one full season (120 days)
for stocking/induction. Thus operations could not take place in
Same season.
Budget Allocation
11th Five Year Plan 2006-11 26 Billion Yuan Target 58,000 km
12th Five Year Plan 2011-15 50 Billion Yuan Target 70,000 KM
All rural townships will be covered by highways.4
The TAR roads in 1999 were 22475 km.
Current Strategic Projects
1. Black topping of entire highway to Nepal.
2. Lhasa Gongga Expressway. 37.9 km to be completed in March 2011.
3. Nyingtri Prefecture-Metog 117 Km highway . It is located at the lower end of Yarlung-Tsangpo River at eastern end of Himalayas close to Indian border. Metog county population is only 10,000 whereas the project cost is 950 Million Yuan ($ 138.6 Million). The road is strategic. It will take one more year to complete due to huge tunnels through which it is being constructed.
4. Shih chuan Ho –Hotan Highway.
5. Rudok-Aksai Chin Road.
Golmo-Lhasa Rail
Indigenous technology that resolved insoluble problems of frozen earth and attitude sickness had surprised the world. In 2006, China successfully completed Golmo-Lhasa railway project, one year ahead of schedule.
The Tibet Railway is 1,956 kilometers from Xining, Qinghai Province to Lhasa. The Golmud-Lhasa section, construction started in 2001 extends 1,142 kilometers with the highest elevation being some 5,072 meters above sea level at Tanggula Range making it also the highest railway in the world. Great forethought, ingenuity and creativity overcame the engineering difficulties during construction, the design of the train itself, and the efforts made to protect the environment, flora and fauna. Since the opening of Qinghai-Tibet Railway, great changes have taken place in Lhasa and other cities along the route.
It is 58 hour journey from Beijing carrying 900 passengers. There are three routes. Beijing-Lhasa daily train. Alternate day Chengdu-Lhasa/Chongqing-Lhasa. Another route in pipe line to start alternative service is between Shanghai-Lhasa/Guangzhou-Lhasa. Thus three to four thousand passengers can reach Lhasa every day.
PLA Air Force recently used Lhasa rail to transport combat material. ballistic missiles were also transported by rail to Tibet to test if they can withstand change of pressure.5 Since 2010 Tibet Military Region is very active using Lhasa rail for military exercises.
Lhasa-Shigatse Rail
253 km long rail under construction is expected to be operational by 2014. Shigatse is second biggest city. It is traditional seat of the Panchen Lama at Tashilhunpo Monastery.
Feasibility studies have been carried out to extend the rail line by another 400 km to border town of Nyalam. Kathmandu will be not more than 120 Km away. Besides enhancing Chinese influence in Nepal the rail will have strategic military significance.
It is learnt plans exists for extension of rail line to Yatung in Chumbi valley, at the door step of Sikkim, Bhutan and vital Siliguri corridor.
China daily on 27 Sept 10 announced extension of Lhasa rail to Nyingtri, close to Arunachal. This will make deployment of troops opposite Arunachal faster. The work will begin in 2013
The extension of railway lines to Nyalam and Yatung will boost trade to India and Nepal and will usher development in the region. Yatung –Nathula-Sikkim trade route would prosper. The plan appears to open major trade avenue to south Asia though these axes.
It was pointed out earlier in the paper that it is still difficult and time consuming to move troops from Lhasa/Shigatse to road head and concentration areas in Himalays. Rail at the door steps at Yatung and Nyingtri will make deployment as much faster with much less notice.
Golmud-Korla (Xinjiang) Rail
The bidding for designs has commenced for 1240 km rail between Golmud to Korla in Xinjiang. $ 784 million project will start this year. When completed the distance between Lhasa and Urumqi will reduce by 1000 km. It will pass through Kunlun mountains, Qaidam basin,Milan, Tarim Basin thus necessitating the technology to overcome frozen earth and high altitude. Officially stated purpose of the gigantic project is ethnic unity. It is the first direct rail link between Tibet and Xinjiang. 6 The military dimension is considerable switch over of troops between unrestive minority regions.
Sichuan –Lhasa Rail.
A long term project presently on paper is 1629 km Sichuan-Lhasa rail line. This will cover Chengdu- Lhasa in eight hours. Biohuan –Lhasa road takes three days. 100 billion yuan project is expected to boost economic growth along the way including Yulung copper mines with 6.5 million tons proven reserves. Chengdu being the HQ of Military Region and an important base for military reinforcements is significant. The mobilization of troops from Chengdu will be considerably reduced
Yunan-TAR Rail.
Recently commenced Dali-Lijang rail in Yunan is said to be part of larger network to connect Kunming to TAR.
Airports in Tibet
Raksha Mantri stated in Parliament on 06 March 2011, " PLA is also rapidly upgrading several other airstrips in TAR as well as south China to add to five air bases from where Chinese Sukhoi -27UBK and Sukhoi-30 MKK fighters have practiced operations in recent times." 7 The Minister was referring to division level exercise in June/July 2010 where a mechanized formation had moved as rapid reaction force. In this for the first time Sukhoi aircrafts were used.
Airports in Tibet are as follows:-
1. Gonggar Lhasa 3600 meters altitude.
2. Bamda Chamdo 4300 meters highest in the world.
3. Shigatse Peace Airport Shigatse Oct 10
4. Gunsa Ngari June 10. 4000 meters altitude.
5. Nyingtri World's most difficult to access due to narrow Yarlung
Tsangpo river valley. Open 100 days in a year.
6. Nagchu North Tibet
7. Xigage Construction announced in Apr 2010.
Recent Military Exercises
'Ex Stride 2009' was a long range war game involving more than 50,000 troops held in Aug 2009. It involved moving four rapid reaction brigades from four military regions namely Shenjang, Lanzhou, Jinan and Guangzhou. 8PLA focus in recent years is to increase coordination and mobility between country's seven military regions which was found lacking in 2008 unrest in Tibet and in Sichuan earth quake same year
Tibet: World Class Tourist Destination
"Tibet is being reinvented as opportunity for globalised leisure industry where it competes with destinations world wide." 9 It has been declared a 'pillar industry' in 2010-2020 master plan. 2636 new hotel rooms are already under construction. By the end of 2020 the annual visits of tourists will exceed 20 million, three times of 2010. It will not be one city destination. This will need new airports, expressways, railway lines, hydro dams, power stations. As per reports star properties alone will rise to 500 from 350 now. Tourism was 14 % of GDP of TAR in 2010.
Conclusion
The development of infrastructure in Tibet and other backward regions in western China is part of equated development since 1990 . This has been further strengthened in the 12th Five Year Plan. Tibet is also being reinvented as a world tourist destination.
Projects of road, rail and airports are essential for development for Tibet and other minority regions. The projects close to the border have significant military orientation.
The existing infrastructure makes rapid deployment of full potential of thirty-thirty-five division possible in about 50/60 days. PLA is capable to launch operations in the same season. After ongoing and new projects are completed by the end of 12th five year plan, PLA capability will further enhance. There is need for constant review of the situation.
Raksha Mantri has assured that the government has taken "cognizance" of the situation. He also outlined some steps being taken by Indian government.
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