You're missing the point.
The French didn't develop Rafale just for carrier role. It was a joint AF-Navy program for nearly 300 aircraft total. If we were pursuing a joint program where MRCBF & MRFA requirements were to be met by a common aircraft, TEDBF would have made perfect sense.
But like I said, its not the case.
The ONLY country in today's world that is capable of producing carrier-specific fighter programs is the US....nobody else can or does. Not UK, not Europe, not Russia not even China.
And US can only do it because they have a 10-carrier fleet and the naval requirement alone can justify economically viable development & production...and even they are moving toward a common platform for bulk of future requirements (F-35A, B & C).
Either way you look at it you're winning some & losing some.
An "overbuilt" Rafale-M designed for CATOBAR ops would be less efficienct from STOBAR carriers sure, but the TEDBF would also become less efficient when operating from IAC-2 due to same reasons.
Way I see it, better to put our best foot forward & deploy that aircraft which gives maximum ability from CATOBAR platform which would be more definitive & capable...as opposed to a STOBAR carrier in short/medium term which besides checking the box of "having a carrier" is not a very efficient model for deploying airpower at all. Every plane you operate will be doing so sub-optimally.
I would say its actually other way round. TEDBF is pound-foolish.
When a P5 country with global commitments & tendency to get into expeditionary wars like UK is fine with going without a carrier for several years (before QEC came), I don't see what's with the IN obsession for carriers...or the logic behind developing a new aircraft tailored specifically for STOBAR operations for medium-term - bcuz Navy themselves say that long-term carrier plans are CATOBAR.
So I don't see the wisdom of a new STOBAR-tailored program for mere 50-odd airframes.
Nobody disputes that it would be more efficient. Just like nobody disputes Mi-26 can carry way more payload than CH-47F.
The question is - is it worth it?
Never seen TEDBF payload figures. Globalsecurity says 9 tons but I can't see a source.
Rafale is already 9.5 tons.
MTOW need not necessarily translate directly into more payload. It has a lot to do with efficiency of design. For example, Gripen C MTOW is only 500kg more than Tejas Mk-1 MTOW, but the payload capacity is 1,400kg more - despite both having same basic engine (F404/RM12). It's because Gripen is simply a more efficient aerodynamic design.
Also applies to what you said
@IndianHawk
With PBL contracts this is no longer a problem.