Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan 2021: Impact on India

[Del horno]

Pakistan is not the same and Afghanistan neighbors are also not the same.

ANA is spend and anyone expecting resistance from them will be disappointed

 

[Srinivas_K]

ANA is spend and anyone expecting resistance from them will be disappointed

propaganda aside, where exactly the fighting took place between ANA and Taliban?

they just occupied the spaces left by ANA which are difficult to defend.

Afghanistan Govt. will stand firm with external support.

 

[HitmanBlood]

The Taliban are mainly lightly armed yahoos.. But, the pace of Taliban advance shows that Afghan armed forces are not even offering token resistance..

It seems Afghan army is not as professional as we hoped. if Taliban continues to take territory, AAF members will join ranks of taliban just like last time and all that equipment given by usa will end up in the hands of Taliban.

America's inability to reign in on Pakistan and Beijing Biden's hasty withdrawal has caused this.

Who is providing them weapons

Bhikhari republic of Papistan

 

[Deathstar]

Even if Taliban take overs who will recognize their government? Except may be china , Pakistan, Russia(very doubtful). US will impose sanctions and it will become worse than Iran or Venezuela. In 90s Taliban has Saudi n UAE support which is no longer possible. It will be funny to see how chinese culture of pork n wine interacts with Talibani Sharia law. And lastly northern alliance will again start a guerilla warfare and suicide attacks, vbieds , targeted killings would reverse. Its easy to start guerilla attacks very difficult to govern Afghanistan. We have to remember than Taliban government fell in months after US invasion, if not for 2003 Iraq war, America would have finished Taliban there and then. But here I feel the Americans are playing a double game, they want instability in Afghanistan or else they would have targeted Talibani leaders in Quetta ,how is that Baradar still alive when he was arrested some years ago. Instability along your enemies borders viz viz russia n china is very good for America.

 

[Raaakisazih]

Even if Taliban take overs who will recognize their government? Except may be china , Pakistan, Russia(very doubtful). US will impose sanctions and it will become worse than Iran or Venezuela. In 90s Taliban has Saudi n UAE support which is no longer possible. It will be funny to see how chinese culture of pork n wine interacts with Talibani Sharia law. And lastly northern alliance will again start a guerilla warfare and suicide attacks, vbieds , targeted killings would reverse. Its easy to start guerilla attacks very difficult to govern Afghanistan. We have to remember than Taliban government fell in months after US invasion, if not for 2003 Iraq war, America would have finished Taliban there and then. But here I feel the Americans are playing a double game, they want instability in Afghanistan or else they would have targeted Talibani leaders in Quetta ,how is that Baradar still alive when he was arrested some years ago. Instability along your enemies borders viz viz russia n china is very good for America.

Our borders will be unstable too

 

[Lost user]

Loitering munitions attack by Afghan air force on taliban

Is this for real

 

[Maharaj samudragupt]

Our borders will be unstable too

Are we their friends ( America's ) you tell me that.

 

[DerBronzeLord]

We are going to have to be very careful the next few years. The Pakistanis are just about winning in Afghanistan and they are going to be gloating about it. Only a matter of time before they get it into their heads to do something stupid in India.
We haven’t done nearly enough on improving our military situation on the LoC, artillery purchase should be fast tracked. A Pakistan that believes it has defeated the US will be emboldened to do something similar to us. We need to be prepared.

Any Pakistani double speak about how Pakistan will itself be threatened by the Taliban etc is BS being fed to the west. Also anyone in India, if any are that stupid, who believe that we can work a deal with the Taliban is completely mad. We might be able to get a few not in ISI’s picked to occasionally be supportive but they will be in a minority and the Taliban are not going to pick the side of any kafirs, while we may not be as hated as the Americans, let’s not sugar coat this - Modi and the BJP are not going to be the Talibans favourite people. I’m afraid Afghanistan is written off as a country but can be useful for us to keep the Pakistanis occupied, atleast in the non Pashtun parts and with the occasional Pashtun warlord. Will cost us money but it’s doable. We need to stop being muddle headed about this. The Taliban are going to be an uncomfortable reality and we need to quickly work on that while also shoring up our security grid.

To add to this, remember that the Talibs are not a coherent organisation, but an umbrella of factions. A split seems to be likely.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...could-unleash-a-new-proxy-war-in-afghanistan/

This post is a bit incoherent, so bear with me.

Once the Talibs win, which will likely happen within 4-5 months, there will definitely be a resistance movement against them, with a possible revival of the Northern Alliance, while ethnic minorities like the Uzbeks, Shias and Hazaras may also pick up arms.

Do remember that the Iranians and the Russians do not want the Talibs ruling over a stable Afghanistan, as this may result in instability in their own border regions. Iranian border regions near Afghanistan and the ex-Soviet Republics may undergo high radicalization under the influence of the Talibs, which would undermine the influence of Iran and Russia respectively. However, it is possible that the Talibs might get limited support from the Russians to ensure that Afg constantly remains on the boil, which would ensure that the Talibs wouldn't gain any influence in Central Asia due to their own instability, while they would be strong enough and indebted to the Russians to harm Western interests.


The Pakistanis saying that they will also face the consequences of the Talib resurgence aren't exactly wrong, as they are also stuck between a rock and a hard place. I mentioned why in this post of mine from a few weeks back:

https://defenceforumindia.com/threa...unter-terrorist-operations.82111/post-1978163


And this about the Chinese after the withdrawal:

https://defenceforumindia.com/threa...along-ib-and-loc-july-2021.82898/post-1983100


About the Taliban's distaste for "kafirs", remember that the Talibs in the end are becoming more of a political/nationalist organisation as the years pass, as they have learnt that waging war against the infidels will earn them no allies, and no money. Best seen in the example of China, where the Talibs are preaching non-interference due to the Chinese money set to flow in. Ahmed Shah Massoud of the Northern Alliance fame was also notoriously pro-Shariat and was an ex-Mujahid, who ensured that women in the region of his control always wore the burkha, and no music was allowed, but he was still the closest ally of India during the Afghan insurgency between '96 and 2001. In the end, politics and war cannot afford to see religion when your own existence is at stake. The Talibs learnt this lesson, but IS didn't, and the latter continued to antagonize everyone, resulting in everyone kicking their ass due to their ideological committment.

 

[Jimih]

Afghanistan’s Taliban, Now on China’s Border, Seek to Reassure Beijing

Despite past support for Uyghur militants in Xinjiang, Taliban say they won’t interfere in China’s internal affairs. Taliban is eager to secure Beijing’s acquiescence to their rule.

Afghanistan’s Taliban, Now on China’s Border, Seek to Reassure Beijing

Despite past support for Uyghur militants in Xinjiang, the Taliban say they won’t interfere in China’s internal affairs as they continue their advance across Afghanistan.

www.wsj.com

 

[Tupac slayer]

Even if Taliban take overs who will recognize their government? Except may be china , Pakistan, Russia(very doubtful). US will impose sanctions and it will become worse than Iran or Venezuela. In 90s Taliban has Saudi n UAE support which is no longer possible. It will be funny to see how chinese culture of pork n wine interacts with Talibani Sharia law. And lastly northern alliance will again start a guerilla warfare and suicide attacks, vbieds , targeted killings would reverse. Its easy to start guerilla attacks very difficult to govern Afghanistan. We have to remember than Taliban government fell in months after US invasion, if not for 2003 Iraq war, America would have finished Taliban there and then. But here I feel the Americans are playing a double game, they want instability in Afghanistan or else they would have targeted Talibani leaders in Quetta ,how is that Baradar still alive when he was arrested some years ago. Instability along your enemies borders viz viz russia n china is very good for America.

You are partially correct when you say that If not for 2003 Iraq War, US would have finished Taliban, some resources like drones, linguist analysts, Intelligence analysts were diverted to Afghanistan to Iraq in 2002, But in 2009 During Afghan Surge, all the resources were available again, Recon assets like Drones, Martime patrol aircraft were available in Abundant, ISAF Commander in Afghanistan was directly reporting to US President via Secretary of Defence. ISAF commanders got what they asked for? Robert Gates in his book Duty: Memories of Secretary at War states that they provided every asset that was remaining idle and not used. PACOM commander severely objected the transfer P-3 Orion to Afghanistan. But Pentagon made those assets to Afghanistan.

I repeat what I told earlier "Without destroying safe heavens in Pakistan, No amount of Ground Troops on Ground, no of Aircraft or JSOC Raids will change the situation in Afghanistan.

North Waziristan was a heaven for all terror groups fighting in Afghanistan, Beyond launching a few Heliborne raids and Hundreds of drone strikes US could not do nothing against Pakistan.

We often accuse US of playing double games, Yes they are playing double game, What we need to understand is the game played by Pakistan at its own peril. Pakistan Sheltered Bin Laden, Hoping that US Will never leave Afghanistan, without having Bin Laden. Pakistan can continue to milk US. All Changed in 2013, No one expected Obama would withdraw troops, It was a right decision 15 Years of COIN/ Counter Terror Operations depleted US military to a point of no return. Commanders wanted to shift the focus back on conventional operations. Resources were again diverted back to EUCOM and PACOM. Creation of space force by Trump was partially due to this analysis.

US Military commanders wanted to win a conventional warfare rather than securing an Afghan Village which is worth nothing. Pakistan got one enemy TTP who was willing to fight even after US Troops left afghanistan. This was one thing Pakistan never expected.

One thing which is often getting unnoticed, Pakistan members in their forum who often pride themselves for continuously bleeding Indian Army RR divisions in kashmir often forget that their Reserve corps based in quetta and peshwar are effectively tied down in fighting against Balochistan Insurgents and TTP. TTP attacks have forced Pakistan army to move some of the Infantry divisions from their II strike corps and other corps deployed in Pakistan Punjab to support Peshwar corps fighting TTP Insurgents. The lull in Peace we enjoyed from 2009 to 2014 was due to this factor rather than change of thinking from Pakistan side. I believe again 2016 after URI attack, We activated some of the assets in Pakistan so that Pakistan was again paid back in same coin.

 

[ezsasa]

Afghanistan’s Taliban, Now on China’s Border, Seek to Reassure Beijing

Despite past support for Uyghur militants in Xinjiang, Taliban say they won’t interfere in China’s internal affairs. Taliban is eager to secure Beijing’s acquiescence to their rule.

Afghanistan’s Taliban, Now on China’s Border, Seek to Reassure Beijing

Despite past support for Uyghur militants in Xinjiang, the Taliban say they won’t interfere in China’s internal affairs as they continue their advance across Afghanistan.

www.wsj.com

This is taqiya, they will say anything while they stabilise their control
Of Afghanistan . The statements they will make after taking full control is what matters.

 

[Tupac slayer]

We need to wait and watch and see what is happening in Afghanistan? We should not rush any military help to Afghan government at the time when It was in the verge of collapse, Countries which should rush military help are US and its allies, certainly not India. Our strategic Interest is POK, we should do everything to take it back.

 

[Marliii]

We need to wait and watch and see what is happening in Afghanistan? We should not rush any military help to Afghan government at the time when It was in the verge of collapse, Countries which should rush military help are US and its allies, certainly not India. Our strategic Interest is POK, we should do everything to take it back.

No one will rush help.US got it wants.now it all back to normal americans now don't care if taliban takeover

 

[Tupac slayer]

No one will rush help.US got it wants.now it all back to normal americans now don't care if taliban takeover

Can you please tell us what US achieved in Afghanistan? Initial Invasion of US goal in 2001 was to bring a government in Afghanistan which is secular by middle east standards? But right now many Jihadist groups have mushroomed in Afghanistan, It is out of control now.

 

[ezsasa]

Liberal hero is saying he does not bear responsibility for the outcome if the taliban ends up back control & women end up losing the rights.

 

[Tupac slayer]

Liberal hero is saying he does not bear responsibility for the outcome if the taliban ends up back control & women end up losing the rights.

Ezsasa Sir, Let me ask an Honest answer why should US Give its Blood and Treasure to Afghanistan and its Citizens when they themselves were not loyal to US for freeing themselves from Taliban Rule in 2001. Back in 2010 some cartoon in Europe, drove thousands of Afghans to US bases and ransacked them.

I would like to quote Trump. " We build a school, they destroy it, Again we build a school, they destroy it, but some of our own people want to build a school again" There is nothing left in middle east which is valuable for which I am going to commit American lives.

Momin Women are equally dangerous when compared to momin women, Many times US Special Forces when conducting night time raids were fired by Afghan women using AK-47. Let Afghans have a civil war, world should have a popcorn in hand and enjoy the show rather than Interfering.

 

[Marliii]

Can you please tell us what US achieved in Afghanistan? Initial Invasion of US goal in 2001 was to bring a government in Afghanistan which is secular by middle east standards? But right now many Jihadist groups have mushroomed in Afghanistan, It is out of control now.

Us goal is to that Afghanistan doesn't get used as a terrorist breeding ground against the US homeland.thats their only mission.secular and giving books weren't their agenda

 

[Tupac slayer]

Us goal is to that Afghanistan doesn't get used as a terrorist breeding ground against the US homeland.thats their only mission.secular and giving books weren't their agenda

Sorry as per Long war Journal, country side of Kunar Province was again used as training Camps for Al-Qaeda back in 2015 I think, US Destroyed an Al-qaeda camp in Kunar Province. US Officials allowed the camp to grow in size monitoring it, When it had more than hundreds of recruits they bombed the camp and conducted cruise missile strikes totally annihilating it, Most of the members who survived the bombing and missile onslaught were later killed by US Special Forces.

Al-Qaeda has regrouped well in Afghanistan. Till now Taliban has not committed to hand over Zawarhiri or Saif al Adel to US.

US might have killed Osama and detained Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, some of the Jihadist who were part of Al-qaeda core group are still holed in Afghanistan. Zawahiri very well understood that the psychology of western nations, he understood western people have limited patience for prolonged war.

 

[ezsasa]

Ezsasa Sir, Let me ask an Honest answer why should US Give its Blood and Treasure to Afghanistan and its Citizens when they themselves were not loyal to US for freeing themselves from Taliban Rule in 2001. Back in 2010 some cartoon in Europe, drove thousands of Afghans to US bases and ransacked them.

I would like to quote Trump. " We build a school, they destroy it, Again we build a school, they destroy it, but some of our own people want to build a school again" There is nothing left in middle east which is valuable for which I am going to commit American lives.

Momin Women are equally dangerous when compared to momin women, Many times US Special Forces when conducting night time raids were fired by Afghan women using AK-47. Let Afghans have a civil war, world should have a popcorn in hand and enjoy the show rather than Interfering.

my issue not with military and strategic aspect of Afghanistan withdrawal, but rather with libtard propaganda that they have solutions to all problems of the world.

Fact is world is complex, libtards don’t have solutions to all problems and their track record is weak when it comes to finding solutions to problems. On top of it the arrogance of cancel culture, they have social engineered their followers into thinking that shutting up other point of view is legitimate.

our desi libtards too will be thrown under the bus once their purpose is served.

 

[Tupac slayer]

my issue not with military and strategic aspect of Afghanistan withdrawal, but rather with libtard propaganda that they have solutions to all problems of the world.

Fact is world is complex, libtards don’t have solutions to all problems and their track record is weak when it comes to finding solutions to problems. On top of it the arrogance of cancel culture, they have social engineered their followers into thinking that shutting up other point of view is legitimate.

Sorry for mis understanding your post, well said.