Su-30 MKI

[p2prada]

How many MKIs were sent as knock-down kits to HAL?

Over the top of my head, 80 were sent as SKD and CKD. 60 to be manufactured from ground up. As of last year KD kits phase has been completed.

Russia manufactured 90 MKIs. So as of today the number of MKIs ready is a little over 170. 33 to be delivered this year. This includes 21 from HAL and the last batch of 12 from Russia's assembly line. So, by the end of this year we will have around 200 MKIs flying with 70 odd left for production.

 

[pankaj nema]

I think here too we have MORE Su 30 than what is officially declared

Russia manufactures planes at a much faster rate than India

So We might have purchased more number of PLAIN Su 30 from Russia and upgraded them slowly to SU 30 mki standards

Or else How can we think of deploying 4 Squadrons of Su 30 against China

 

[p2prada]

I think here too we have MORE Su 30 than what is officially declared

Russia manufactures planes at a much faster rate than India

Have to agree. Every Indo Russian deal has been mired in secrecy. We know HAL makes 12 MKIs a year and Russia delivers 12 a year to India. But yearly inductions have been greater than the 24 official numbers. Sometimes 26, sometimes 28, this year 33. What next?

We know for sure 170 MKIs are ready as of today because we have started production of the last batch of 60 from the original order of 140. But we don't know how many are in service with the IAF for sure.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

 

[Armand2REP]

So we can expect quite a few knock down kits and extra line orders for Rafale.

 

[Param]

Over the top of my head, 80 were sent as SKD and CKD. 60 to be manufactured from ground up. As of last year KD kits phase has been completed.

Russia manufactured 90 MKIs. So as of today the number of MKIs ready is a little over 170. 33 to be delivered this year. This includes 21 from HAL and the last batch of 12 from Russia's assembly line. So, by the end of this year we will have around 200 MKIs flying with 70 odd left for production.

What about a defence minister statement in the past that 230 will be completed by 2014?

 

[p2prada]

What about a defence minister statement in the past that 230 will be completed by 2014?

That's 140 from HAL and 90 from Russia. Total 230. That would mean 200 within the current financial year. And 30 more in two years. Followed by 42+1 in 3 years.

So we can expect quite a few knock down kits and extra line orders for Rafale.

Yeah. At least half of the 108 to be made in HAL will be SKDs and CKDs. The other half may be 85% indigenous as mentioned by HAL. The rest 15% may come from France. Further options will all be made in India.

As for direct orders from France beyond the 18 ordered, it depends on how PAKFA and LCA progress. If delays are seen then orders will come.

I am quite sure the SFC contract will go to Dassault because it makes sense to ensure the SFC aircraft are the same as what the IAF already operates. Say, if SFC uses Typhoons or Su-34 while the IAF has none of these in it's inventory then the enemy will know for sure the package headed towards them is nuclear. So, it has to be taken for granted that the SFC will use either Rafale or MKI.

Navy deal will be a competition between Rafale and F-35. Dassault will be able to push for a cheaper deal once the IAF deal is in the bag. ToT obligations will get very easy after that. F-35 is backed by 3000+ orders. So, they may make it very lucrative enough to compete with Rafale. The deal is 40% smaller than IAF's. Very lucrative for anybody.

 

[trackwhack]

That's 140 from HAL and 90 from Russia. Total 230. That would mean 200 within the current financial year. And 30 more in two years. Followed by 42+1 in 3 years.



Yeah. At least half of the 108 to be made in HAL will be SKDs and CKDs. The other half may be 85% indigenous as mentioned by HAL. The rest 15% may come from France. Further options will all be made in India.

As for direct orders from France beyond the 18 ordered, it depends on how PAKFA and LCA progress. If delays are seen then orders will come.

I am quite sure the SFC contract will go to Dassault because it makes sense to ensure the SFC aircraft are the same as what the IAF already operates. Say, if SFC uses Typhoons or Su-34 while the IAF has none of these in it's inventory then the enemy will know for sure the package headed towards them is nuclear. So, it has to be taken for granted that the SFC will use either Rafale or MKI.

Navy deal will be a competition between Rafale and F-35. Dassault will be able to push for a cheaper deal once the IAF deal is in the bag. ToT obligations will get very easy after that. F-35 is backed by 3000+ orders. So, they may make it very lucrative enough to compete with Rafale. The deal is 40% smaller than IAF's. Very lucrative for anybody.

Range of both Aircraft are limited. It would make more sense for the SFC to go for a dedicated stealth bomber rather than procure a machine thst neither fighter nor bomber and is something in between.

Since the US has pretentiously been trying to cozy up to India, lets see if they can put their money where their mouth is. Indicate interest in getting 6 B-2 bombers at a lifecycle cost of a 800 - 850 million each for a total deal size of 5 billion USD. This will be China specific from India's perspective. For the Pukes we can choose either the MKI or the Rafale, no biggie.

But of course the US wont sell the B2 because it can reach Washington

Defining partnership of the century my ass.

Only other option is a Tu - 160, but its not stealth,in the meantime inject more money into the PAK-DA stealth bomber and sign a JV with Russia speeding up induction of the aircraft to a 2018-2020 timeline.

 

[p2prada]

Range of both Aircraft are limited.

Not at all. On the contrary the MKI can do 5500Km and Rafale can manage 4000Km.

It would make more sense for the SFC to go for a dedicated stealth bomber rather than procure a machine thst neither fighter nor bomber and is something in between.

You mean something apart from what IAF already has. Impossible. Actually, if IAF has it's way the SFC will not get any aircraft at all. They won't get something which is more expensive than what IAF already has. We neither have the money nor the operational need for a long range bomber.

Defining partnership of the century my ass.

Politics.

 

[trackwhack]

Not at all. On the contrary the MKI can do 5500Km and Rafale can manage 4000Km.



You mean something apart from what IAF already has. Impossible. Actually, if IAF has it's way the SFC will not get any aircraft at all. They won't get something which is more expensive than what IAF already has. We neither have the money nor the operational need for a long range bomber.



Politics.

The point being 2 B-2 can accomplish what a squadron of MKI's can in terms of payload and range.

Also 5 billion is nothing for the deterrence it buys. It will work out to a billion a year spread over 5 years. That 2% of our defence budget.

I still think we should talk to Russia about PAK-DA and how we can infuse money to speed up development and induction.

 

[Param]

The point being 2 B-2 can accomplish what a squadron of MKI's can in terms of payload and range.

Also 5 billion is nothing for the deterrence it buys. It will work out to a billion a year spread over 5 years. That 2% of our defence budget.

I still think we should talk to Russia about PAK-DA and how we can infuse money to speed up development and induction.

Russia is not going to sell everything they have no matter how much money we infuse.
Despite all the talk of India sharing the cost of PakFa or FGFA there is hardly anything for us to contribute and call it a joint venture.

US will not sell B2 to any country let alone India.

If Russia comes up with something like B2 they won't sell it to any country because such weapons are total game changers

 

[Galaxy]

U.S. is not going to sell B-2 bomber at any cost. They won't sell to their closest allies Australia or U.K., India is out of question. Money is not the criteria.

Russia also won't sell PAK-DA. Even project is still 15-20 years away.

Although we do need long range bomber to hit HAN populated east coast of China. MKI/Rafale won't able to reach and return. That will be best deterrent against China. For that, we can purchase Tupolev Tu-95 or Tu-160. Even Sukhoi 34 can also make some difference. May be we never thought as our doctrine against China was always defensive but going forward we do need long range bomber.

 

[p2prada]

We don't need to travel so far just to drop a bomb. The aircraft can be intercepted many times before they can reach their targets. No point at all.

Ballistic Missiles are the best way to reach targets and we are building some for everybody on our naughty list.

 

[trackwhack]

If neither the US nor Russia are willing to sell long range stealth bombers, then that should be our next big project on the scale of ATV and IAC. The nuclear triad is complete only with missiles, SSBN's and Bombers. MKI and Rafale are not bomber, at best they are stop gap arrangements. Remember we are projected to be in the big three within the next 2 decades. I think it is critical that we have all forms of delivery systems each with a global reach, not just regional reach.

 

[Galaxy]

We don't need to travel so far just to drop a bomb. The aircraft can be intercepted many times before they can reach their targets. No point at all.

Ballistic Missiles are the best way to reach targets and we are building some for everybody on our naughty list.

There is difference between Long range Bomber and Ballistic Missile.

We have and will have all type of Missiles. So what's the point in spending Rafale worth 20 Bn $ ?

Long Range bomber gives huge deterrence.

 

[Param]

There is difference between Long range Bomber and Ballistic Missile.

We have and will have all type of Missiles. So what's the point in spending Rafale worth 20 Bn $ ?

Long Range bomber gives huge deterrence.

Any long range bomber crossing the mallaca strait and flying over SCS wil be downed.


Flying over Tibet, Sichuan and half a dozen other provinces covering a distance of 2000 Kms of Chinese territory in order to reach their East coast is a Pipe Dream

BMs are a practical solution.

 

[Galaxy]

If neither the US nor Russia are willing to sell long range stealth bombers, then that should be our next big project on the scale of ATV and IAC. The nuclear triad is complete only with missiles, SSBN's and Bombers. MKI and Rafale are not bomber, at best they are stop gap arrangements. Remember we are projected to be in the big three within the next 2 decades. I think it is critical that we have all forms of delivery systems each with a global reach, not just regional reach.

Russia don't have stealth bombers. PAK-DA project is only on paper. It will take at least 10-20 years more.

IMO, ABM is next big thing. It's very big project with lots of scope. We need to cover whole country with 2-3 layers which will take 10-15 years.

Also, we need 1>Tupolev Tu-95 or Tu-160 2>BM with range10,000-15,000 Km 3> UCAV 4> 2 Nuclear capable Carrier with 60-80 Rafale/F-35/etc.

 

[p2prada]

Bombers are useful when you have enemies across continents. Our enemies are close to us. Hence the requirement does not exist.

Bombers are a force multiplier, but it is not needed in the India-Pak-China context.

 

[Galaxy]

Any long range bomber crossing the mallaca strait and flying over SCS wil be downed.


Flying over Tibet, Sichuan and half a dozen other provinces covering a distance of 2000 Kms of Chinese territory in order to reach their East coast is a Pipe Dream

BMs are a practical solution.

Easier said than done. China don't have credible ABM & Air-defense system. We could use different route through mallaca strait where China has less presence. We can even get base in countries like Vietnam after few years. They already offered Naval base recently. There is always some risk, But that is what Airforce is all about. All fighter jets can be downed if reaches at border or inside the country, But still it do create certain amount of deterrence and it's not so easy to destroy.

 

[Param]

Easier said than done. China don't have credible ABM & Air-defense system. We could use different routs through mallaca strait where China has less presence. There is always some risk, But that is what Airforce has to take risk. All fighter jets can be downed if reaches at border, But still it do create certain amount of deterrence.

Look it is not possible to send bombers all the way to the East coast via Tibet and central China. They will be intercepted. what else do you think they have S300 and S400 clones for?
ABM has nothing to with bombers, their Air defence is pretty good.

Maybe you don't know the increasing Chinese naval presence in SCS. Heck even their ships have a version of HQ19 or something.
If it is possible for us to reach their East coast all the way, then it is also possible the other way round.

Lets be a bit realistic.