Russia Ukraine War 2022

[Anirbann Datta]

It's just a matter of time.
Could be one month, could be two months.

The only issue I observe is that, it's total EU/NATO/US fighting at their best interest against Russians!! where are Ukrainians? they are the foot soldiers just. That's the issue totally ire's me!! US supplies according to their own behest, irrespective of Ukrainian demands, and allows Ukrainians only to use them at their own condition!!
To what point that is Ukraine's war to you!!
Ukraine is just a 'Shikhandi' state, no matter how much you say, you can't deny this fact.
Who ever side wins, its bound to happen that Ukraine will be economically/ industrially/ morally/ most of all militarily be left at a state of no- return- that's for sure. US will supply until a single soul left, Russia will destroy until a 0 soul left to retaliate.. so its a no-brainer game.
US has coming prez election, Trump is gaining his potential for 24 candidature, that will surely downstream the flow of US weapons in Ukraine. Think what happens then!!
on the other hand, the desparation from both side will increase with coming winter, so we will see more intense fight till october mid- from both sides- US/Ru. another fact is that, the most heavy equipment west/ us supplied are wheeled instead of tracked.... guess the next.
Now, again Chechens are in the fight, so its obvious, that there will be more volunteers from muslim countries from Russian side.
So- let us discuss the same in April 2023 again - hopefully.

 

[vampyrbladez]

 

[vampyrbladez]

 

[vampyrbladez]

Couple of reasons

1. Lack of accurate PGM. RuAF and rocket forces are lacking accurate PGM and with sanctions they can't produce new at a quick pace. They also have to maintain a stockpile of PGM for later phase of war once Ukrainian counter-assault gets traction
2. Lack of proper intelligence (people spying for Russia are getting hunted down)
3. Greed : They want to use this infrastructure when believe they will launch an attack to capture that particular area
4. Lack of air dominance over Ukraine
5. Ukraine AD is good

To conclude Russians have hit Ukrainian infrastructure but the Ukrainian just repaired or built new infrastructure or just used diversion. As Ukrainian are in their home country they can easily do this.

• Lack of accurate PGM. RuAF and rocket forces are lacking accurate PGM and with sanctions they can't produce new at a quick pace. They also have to maintain a stockpile of PGM for later phase of war once Ukrainian counter-assault gets traction

Not really. Russians are simply saving their PGMs for HVTs and possible NATO intervention. You can get parts and microchips right across the border with China with 0 repercussions. Also you can forget about a Ukrainian counter offensive since they lack the armor and artillery reserves to secure a breakthrough.

​

• Lack of proper intelligence (people spying for Russia are getting hunted down)​

Russian intelligence lead to SBU getting thoroughly compromised. HUMINT in a corrupt war torn country can be bought or 'extracted' with these deep assets.

• Greed : They want to use this infrastructure when believe they will launch an attack to capture that particular area

I agree with this. However they are more likely to hire North Korean slave labor to rebuild like they are currently doing in Mariupol.

• Lack of air dominance over Ukraine

Air dominance is guaranteed to RuAF since UAF has ceased to exist in significant numbers. However air strikes on certain positions are tenuous due to concentrated AD.

• Ukraine AD is good

I agree with this. Starstreak and Igla MANPADS secure low flying zones from Su 24/Su 25 and Ka 52 while S-300, S-200 and Buk M1 secure the high altitude zones from Su 30/Su 35/Mig 29 4.5 fighter aircraft.

This could be easily resolved with standoff munitions which RuAF cannot spare due to the first point. Thus long range artillery and drones need to be used which clear this out which again requires SATINT, HUMIT and RECON which again takes time.

 

[vampyrbladez]

 

[mokoman]

I'm talking years here. Consider this war Europe's Syria. Will also end the same way.

thats probably what US is aiming for , but that will be bad outcome for everyone including Russians .

 

[Dark Sorrow]

• Lack of accurate PGM. RuAF and rocket forces are lacking accurate PGM and with sanctions they can't produce new at a quick pace. They also have to maintain a stockpile of PGM for later phase of war once Ukrainian counter-assault gets traction

Not really. Russians are simply saving their PGMs for HVTs and possible NATO intervention. You can get parts and microchips right across the border with China with 0 repercussions. Also you can forget about a Ukrainian counter offensive since they lack the armor and artillery reserves to secure a breakthrough.

The end result is current Russian operations are facing shortage of accurate PGM.
Yes, Russian are using clones or QC rejects from PRC.
PRC itself doesn't want to risk secondary sanctions for Russia or this stupid war.

Also Russian stand-off weapons are not very accurate and Ukrainian AD has been intercepting a lot of Russian CM.

As previously sated by me anyone expecting massive Ukrainian counter offensive will be disappointed. Ukrainian counter offensive will be more of artillery dueling using PGM.

• Lack of proper intelligence (people spying for Russia are getting hunted down)​

Russian intelligence lead to SBU getting thoroughly compromised. HUMINT in a corrupt war torn country can be bought or 'extracted' with these deep assets.

Russians are also equally compromised if not more. Not to forget CIA and MI6 accurately predicated Russian action (down to perfect time and location)
Ukrainian counter-intelligence have stepped up their game and lot of Russian spies and informants have been caught.
Ukraine are also getting accurate information about Russian moments, logistic hub, command post, supply depots and high ranking Russian officers. In-short their intelligence activities are working.
Ukraine is the second most corrupt country in Europe behind likes of Russia.
As for FSB it is one of the most corrupt and compromised agency in Russia.

• Lack of air dominance over Ukraine

Air dominance is guaranteed to RuAF since UAF has ceased to exist in significant numbers. However air strikes on certain positions are tenuous due to concentrated AD.

• Ukraine AD is good

I agree with this. Starstreak and Igla MANPADS secure low flying zones from Su 24/Su 25 and Ka 52 while S-300, S-200 and Buk M1 secure the high altitude zones from Su 30/Su 35/Mig 29 4.5 fighter aircraft.

This could be easily resolved with standoff munitions which RuAF cannot spare due to the first point. Thus long range artillery and drones need to be used which clear this out which again requires SATINT, HUMIT and RECON which again takes time.

Both your points are self contradictory.
If Ukraine AD are good and holding their own against RuAF how can one say that Russians have Air dominance/Air supremacy over the Ukraine. Having Air dominance/Air supremacy means one can operate your air assets without impunity but that is not the case here.

Ukraine have also intercepted a lot of Russian CM.

 

[asaffronladoftherisingsun]

हाहाहाहाहा जो चूतिया वाईस कश्मीर में जब भारतीय सेना को रेपिस्ट का झूठा आरोप लगाता है।

दास है तू ।

 

[ww2historian]

View attachment 167318

Again, two pictures are worth 2,000 words.

 

[1971ftw]

Again, two pictures are worth 2,000 words. View attachment 167350View attachment 167354

What's the story about the south western ukrain in red in map 1?

 

[ww2historian]

Dark self pity is at it again. You really love to post a lot of pathetic self pity shit, don't you? My heart is really broken because this guy has to spend a few months in jail when he knowingly broke the law, while soldiers are being killed in Ukraine. Lets show a grieving mother crying about this. Plus this propaganda video backfired and blew up in your face. It clearly shows the Russian police wouldn't illegally break into that ladies home, and it also showed them releasing her for lack of evidence.

 

[ww2historian]

Hey Dark self pity. Before you post this video, let me prove to you it's a fake, so it doesn't blow up in your stupid face again. 38.4Kviews05:40

 

[ww2historian]

This is your brain and face on drugs.

 

[ww2historian]

I usually never get shocked about anything these days, but the west basically going silent about Ukraine shelling a nuclear power plant is shocking to me. Since everyone knows that Russia has controlled this area for months, everyone knows Ukraine accusing Russia of shelling it is complete bullshit. Russia cut power to Ukraine and rerouted power to Russian held territory, and this is just pure revenge on Ukraine's part for that. How the west hasn't demanded Ukraine to stop shelling this nuclear plant is incomprehensible.

 

[1971ftw]

I usually never get shocked about anything these days, but the west basically going silent about Ukraine shelling a nuclear power plant is shocking to me. Since everyone knows that Russia has controlled this area for months, everyone knows Ukraine accusing Russia of shelling it is complete bullshit. Russia cut power to Ukraine and rerouted power to Russian held territory, and this is just pure revenge on Ukraine's part for that. How the west hasn't demanded Ukraine to stop shelling this nuclear plant is incomprehensible.

The last thing the west cares about is a humanitarian crisis, this is their proxy war. They will openly support any kind of war crime . Did you forgot how us,uk openly supported porkis genocide on Bangladesh

 

[ww2historian]

What's the story about the south western ukrain in red in map 1?

You're referring to Transnistria. It's still a Russian territory, and is very interesting. I think when Russia attacks Odessa, an attack will happen with a coordinated attack from Transnistria. Ukraine and the west suspects that there might have been a secret amassing of troops happening slowly for the last 2 years in anticipation of an eventual war. A Transnistrian town also has the largest weapon storage in eastern Europe. Imo it would of been a very smart move on Russia's part to secretively amass an attack force there. Plus Transnistria has conscripted thousands of soldiers in the last few months.
Cobasna ammunition depot
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Location of Cobasna, where the Cobasna ammunition depot is located, in Moldova.
The Cobasna ammunition depot is a large ammunition depot located in the village of Cobasna. Legally and internationally recognized as part of Moldova as a whole, the unrecognized breakaway state of Transnistria controls the village and the ammunition depot and has denied access to international observers,[1] an exception being the so-called peacekeeping military forces of Russia located in the region ever since the end of the Transnistria War in 1992.[2] Currently, civilian access to the ammunition depot is restricted and only the Russian and Transnistrian authorities have detailed information regarding the amount and situation of the stored weapons.[3] The ammunition depot was created in the 1940s, when Transnistria was under the former Soviet Union (USSR). At the time, it held important strategic value.[1]
The Cobasna ammunition depot has been referred to as one of the largest[2] if not the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe[1] and contains up to 20,000 tons of Soviet-era weapons from the 14th Guards Army of the USSR and also from the former states of Czechoslovakia and East Germany. Currently, it is guarded by around 1,500 Russian soldiers. Ever since Russia's conflict with Ukraine, there has been growing distress in Moldova for the Cobasna ammunition depot, with some believing that the weapons there could be used in a potential future military conflict.

 

[tribendra bisoi..]

 

[maximus777]

You're referring to Transnistria. It's still a Russian territory, and is very interesting. I think when Russia attacks Odessa, an attack will happen with a coordinated attack from Transnistria. Ukraine and the west suspects that there might have been a secret amassing of troops happening slowly for the last 2 years in anticipation of an eventual war. A Transnistrian town also has the largest weapon storage in eastern Europe. Imo it would of been a very smart move on Russia's part to secretively amass an attack force there. Plus Transnistria has conscripted thousands of soldiers in the last few months.
Cobasna ammunition depot
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Location of Cobasna, where the Cobasna ammunition depot is located, in Moldova.
The Cobasna ammunition depot is a large ammunition depot located in the village of Cobasna. Legally and internationally recognized as part of Moldova as a whole, the unrecognized breakaway state of Transnistria controls the village and the ammunition depot and has denied access to international observers,[1] an exception being the so-called peacekeeping military forces of Russia located in the region ever since the end of the Transnistria War in 1992.[2] Currently, civilian access to the ammunition depot is restricted and only the Russian and Transnistrian authorities have detailed information regarding the amount and situation of the stored weapons.[3] The ammunition depot was created in the 1940s, when Transnistria was under the former Soviet Union (USSR). At the time, it held important strategic value.[1]
The Cobasna ammunition depot has been referred to as one of the largest[2] if not the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe[1] and contains up to 20,000 tons of Soviet-era weapons from the 14th Guards Army of the USSR and also from the former states of Czechoslovakia and East Germany. Currently, it is guarded by around 1,500 Russian soldiers. Ever since Russia's conflict with Ukraine, there has been growing distress in Moldova for the Cobasna ammunition depot, with some believing that the weapons there could be used in a potential future military conflict.

I think their distress is being misplaced. They better get their sh!t together and have some good AD, or else its a "cigarette" incident waiting to happen with the HIMARS.

 

[maximus777]

With 6+ months into this war, have the Ruskis not identified the NATO supply lines in the rear? Heavy weaponry like MLRS cannot be carried on the backs and would require rail or heavy road transporters. Why have they not been interdicted so far? Overwhelm the AD with garbage like Scud and let lose the air superiority fighters to do their job. Heck the aircraft that Ru AF lost in Saki squatting on the tarmac is worth the price if they can knock out some Ukr AD systems and cutting supply lines. But then again, master-stroke!

 

[asaffronladoftherisingsun]

Run d rona of ukraine.