Pakistan Economy: News & Discussion
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Govt okays policy to woo foreign investors
• Fresh strategy eliminates minimum equity requirement
• Restrictions on foreign real estate developers lifted
• Plan aims to attract $20-25bn over next few years
• Fresh strategy eliminates minimum equity requirement
• Restrictions on foreign real estate developers lifted
• Plan aims to attract $20-25bn over next few years
GDP-to-investment ratio
shade
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Seems to be some scheme to make it easier for dual citizen or foreign citizen Fauji retirees to continue to loot their country.
Also pawn off portions to their Gulf masters
The Juggernaut
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Ease of doing extortion. It must be real curse for the living people in their land.
Not surprising that land-owners still own all the things.
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Woeful LSM decline
Published August 18, 2023
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EDITORIAL: The FY23 Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) is down 10.3 percent year-on-year. Barring the Covid year, this is the biggest decline in the history of its recording and depicts the sorry state of the manufacturing sector that is hit hardest by the ongoing balance of payment and energy crises.
The decline began last year in July when the then finance minister and State Bank of Pakistan Governor (SBP) decided to put curbs on the so-called ‘non-essential’ imports as the then government was not ready to adopt the much-needed austerity measures required to slow down the wider economy.
Initially, the decision was confined to restricting imports of inputs for automobile, mobile phones and other machinery. The objective was to reduce the quantum of imports to preserve the falling SBP forex reserves.
However, the reserves kept on falling, albeit at a slower pace. And, once these reached the critical level of around $4 billion, the curbs on imports widened across the manufacturing sectors. These unprecedented supply chain disruptions are reflected in the economic data with a 10 percent decline in the LSM.
However, no administrative measure or even a drastic step proved effective to keep the currency (rupee) in check. The depreciating rupee plus the ensuing widespread shortages have resulted in higher inflation.
The situation becomes worse with the imposition of extremely higher tax rates on the manufacturing sector and the producers have started passing on the impact of these abnormally high imposts, including super tax on selected categories of taxpayers, to the consumers that is fuelling inflation further.
This has suppressed the demand, and that has further impacted on the performance of the LSM. One of the biggest declines is in the auto sector, which is down by 50 percent, as the imports are restricted in this sector and then additional GST and duties have suppressed the demand.
The assemblers had to resort to increase the prices of their products to compensate for the escalation in their fixed costs as their plants were running sub-optimally.
The decline of 6-7 percent in food and beverages suggests demand suppression in view of the fact that import restrictions had least impact on these sectors. In the case of tobacco, the decline is 29 percent – which is due to lower demand and shifting of consumers to smuggled and informal local tobacco, as the FED (federal excise duty) on cigarettes doubled on the formal sector while the informal remained unchecked.
This kind of trend is visible in other items as well where input parts were harder to import through formal channels while informal sector kept on importing final goods, using informal means. That further hurt the formal manufacturing sector.
The trend of import curbs almost continued to date. However, as per the IMF condition, it is slowly easing. The question is whether this is enough to normalise the LSM. The short answer is no. During the chaos of last year or so, the energy prices have increased to a level, which is making manufacturing uncompetitive. High interest rates are making working capital prohibitively expensive.
This is not a good omen. The LSM may bounce back from the lows of FY23. However, FY24 is likely to be another bad year as higher inflation erodes demand further while a greater increase in energy pricing will keep manufacturing more uncompetitive and the increasing informal footprint will make life of the formal sector more miserable.
The outcome would be loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs – some have already lost employment and others may join amid closure of more manufacturing units.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
Published August 18, 2023
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EDITORIAL: The FY23 Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) is down 10.3 percent year-on-year. Barring the Covid year, this is the biggest decline in the history of its recording and depicts the sorry state of the manufacturing sector that is hit hardest by the ongoing balance of payment and energy crises.
The decline began last year in July when the then finance minister and State Bank of Pakistan Governor (SBP) decided to put curbs on the so-called ‘non-essential’ imports as the then government was not ready to adopt the much-needed austerity measures required to slow down the wider economy.
Initially, the decision was confined to restricting imports of inputs for automobile, mobile phones and other machinery. The objective was to reduce the quantum of imports to preserve the falling SBP forex reserves.
However, the reserves kept on falling, albeit at a slower pace. And, once these reached the critical level of around $4 billion, the curbs on imports widened across the manufacturing sectors. These unprecedented supply chain disruptions are reflected in the economic data with a 10 percent decline in the LSM.
However, no administrative measure or even a drastic step proved effective to keep the currency (rupee) in check. The depreciating rupee plus the ensuing widespread shortages have resulted in higher inflation.
The situation becomes worse with the imposition of extremely higher tax rates on the manufacturing sector and the producers have started passing on the impact of these abnormally high imposts, including super tax on selected categories of taxpayers, to the consumers that is fuelling inflation further.
This has suppressed the demand, and that has further impacted on the performance of the LSM. One of the biggest declines is in the auto sector, which is down by 50 percent, as the imports are restricted in this sector and then additional GST and duties have suppressed the demand.
The assemblers had to resort to increase the prices of their products to compensate for the escalation in their fixed costs as their plants were running sub-optimally.
The decline of 6-7 percent in food and beverages suggests demand suppression in view of the fact that import restrictions had least impact on these sectors. In the case of tobacco, the decline is 29 percent – which is due to lower demand and shifting of consumers to smuggled and informal local tobacco, as the FED (federal excise duty) on cigarettes doubled on the formal sector while the informal remained unchecked.
This kind of trend is visible in other items as well where input parts were harder to import through formal channels while informal sector kept on importing final goods, using informal means. That further hurt the formal manufacturing sector.
The trend of import curbs almost continued to date. However, as per the IMF condition, it is slowly easing. The question is whether this is enough to normalise the LSM. The short answer is no. During the chaos of last year or so, the energy prices have increased to a level, which is making manufacturing uncompetitive. High interest rates are making working capital prohibitively expensive.
This is not a good omen. The LSM may bounce back from the lows of FY23. However, FY24 is likely to be another bad year as higher inflation erodes demand further while a greater increase in energy pricing will keep manufacturing more uncompetitive and the increasing informal footprint will make life of the formal sector more miserable.
The outcome would be loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs – some have already lost employment and others may join amid closure of more manufacturing units.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
Woeful LSM decline
EDITORIAL: The FY23 Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) is down 10.3 percent year-on-year. Barring the Covid year, this...
www.brecorder.com
The Juggernaut
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Progress aise hi hote rehna chahiye..Woeful LSM decline
Published August 18, 2023
Comments
Follow us
EDITORIAL: The FY23 Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) is down 10.3 percent year-on-year. Barring the Covid year, this is the biggest decline in the history of its recording and depicts the sorry state of the manufacturing sector that is hit hardest by the ongoing balance of payment and energy crises.
The decline began last year in July when the then finance minister and State Bank of Pakistan Governor (SBP) decided to put curbs on the so-called ‘non-essential’ imports as the then government was not ready to adopt the much-needed austerity measures required to slow down the wider economy.
Initially, the decision was confined to restricting imports of inputs for automobile, mobile phones and other machinery. The objective was to reduce the quantum of imports to preserve the falling SBP forex reserves.
However, the reserves kept on falling, albeit at a slower pace. And, once these reached the critical level of around $4 billion, the curbs on imports widened across the manufacturing sectors. These unprecedented supply chain disruptions are reflected in the economic data with a 10 percent decline in the LSM.
However, no administrative measure or even a drastic step proved effective to keep the currency (rupee) in check. The depreciating rupee plus the ensuing widespread shortages have resulted in higher inflation.
The situation becomes worse with the imposition of extremely higher tax rates on the manufacturing sector and the producers have started passing on the impact of these abnormally high imposts, including super tax on selected categories of taxpayers, to the consumers that is fuelling inflation further.
This has suppressed the demand, and that has further impacted on the performance of the LSM. One of the biggest declines is in the auto sector, which is down by 50 percent, as the imports are restricted in this sector and then additional GST and duties have suppressed the demand.
The assemblers had to resort to increase the prices of their products to compensate for the escalation in their fixed costs as their plants were running sub-optimally.
The decline of 6-7 percent in food and beverages suggests demand suppression in view of the fact that import restrictions had least impact on these sectors. In the case of tobacco, the decline is 29 percent – which is due to lower demand and shifting of consumers to smuggled and informal local tobacco, as the FED (federal excise duty) on cigarettes doubled on the formal sector while the informal remained unchecked.
This kind of trend is visible in other items as well where input parts were harder to import through formal channels while informal sector kept on importing final goods, using informal means. That further hurt the formal manufacturing sector.
The trend of import curbs almost continued to date. However, as per the IMF condition, it is slowly easing. The question is whether this is enough to normalise the LSM. The short answer is no. During the chaos of last year or so, the energy prices have increased to a level, which is making manufacturing uncompetitive. High interest rates are making working capital prohibitively expensive.
This is not a good omen. The LSM may bounce back from the lows of FY23. However, FY24 is likely to be another bad year as higher inflation erodes demand further while a greater increase in energy pricing will keep manufacturing more uncompetitive and the increasing informal footprint will make life of the formal sector more miserable.
The outcome would be loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs – some have already lost employment and others may join amid closure of more manufacturing units.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
Woeful LSM decline
EDITORIAL: The FY23 Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) is down 10.3 percent year-on-year. Barring the Covid year, this...www.brecorder.com
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indiatester
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Pakis are screwed.
Electricity bills in 20k-50k range and now this gas tariff hike. I encourage pakis to continue feeding their military terrorists.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2432446/1
https://www.dawn.com/news/1772327
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/11...ff-pakistan-may-face-imf-wrath-in-next-review
Failure to notify gas tariff…: Pakistan may face IMF wrath in next review
"Relevant authorities have sensitised caretaker federal minister for energy how imperative increase in gas prices is," says official
By Our Correspondent
August 25, 2023
The International Monetary Fund logo can be seen in this picture. — AFP/File
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan may face annoyance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the next review under the $3 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) loan over its failure to notify an increase in gas tariff, which was determined by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) on June 2, 2023.
The next review of the SBA loan of $3 billion for the next tranche of $1 billion is due in November and the government is left with no option but to increase the gas tariff by 45-50 per cent. Both the gas companies are facing a shortfall of Rs657.766 billion. The Fund may also take up this very issue any time with the government prior to the review meetings.
“The relevant authorities have sensitised caretaker federal minister for energy how imperative an increase in gas prices is. If the government does not take the required action in 40 days after the determination by Ogra, then the regulator must notify the required raise in gas price as per the law amended on the directives of IMF and World Bank. Now 83 days have elapsed since the determination by Ogra about an increase in gas prices by 45-50 per cent,” top officials of the Energy Ministry told The News.
The Petroleum Division tailored various scenarios for an increase in gas prices based on political damage control under which low-class consumers would be passed less increase and high-end consumers would be passed on the maximum increase to compensate for the low-end consumers. However, the former PDM [Pakistan Democratic Movement] government failed to take the decision to this effect and now the responsibility rests with the caretaker setup about an increase in gas tariff.
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority on June 2, 2023, announced an increase of 50 per cent (Rs415.11 per MMBTU) for consumers of the Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL) pushing the subscribed gas price up to Rs1238.68 per MMBTU. The regulator increased the gas price by 45pc (417.23 per MMBTU for the consumers of Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGCL) for 2023-24.
The SNGPL still has the previous year’s accumulative shortfall of Rs560.378 billion up to FY23, while Sui Southern has a shortfall of Rs97.388 billion and this is how the existing shortfall of both the gas companies stands at Rs657.766 billion.
The IMF wants the government to carve a strategy to end oil and gas sector circular debt which stands at Rs1.7 trillion, out of which gas sector circular debt is at Rs1.3 trillion. The PDM government had submitted a plan to the IMF to manage the gas sector’s circular debt based on the dividends ploughing back schemes to reduce Rs543 billion without the consultation of OGDCL.
According to the plan, the federal government would inject around Rs414bn into the Sui Northern and Sui Southern gas companies through supplementary grants for payment of outstanding dues to gas producers, OGDCL, PPL and GHPL. Out of these funds, the SNGPL and the SSGCL would clear outstanding liabilities of about Rs225bn to the OGDCL, Rs62bn to the PPL and Rs127bn to the GHPL. On top of these, OGDCL and PPL would arrange about Rs56bn on their own and partially liquidate some of the investment bonds.
In return, the three gas producers would pay Rs475bn dividends to the federal government on their retained earnings, estimated to be around Rs1.44 trillion as of June 30, 2022. The government currently holds 100pc stakes in GHPL, 85pc in OGDCL and 75pc in PPL.
Electricity bills in 20k-50k range and now this gas tariff hike. I encourage pakis to continue feeding their military terrorists.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2432446/1
https://www.dawn.com/news/1772327
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/11...ff-pakistan-may-face-imf-wrath-in-next-review
Failure to notify gas tariff…: Pakistan may face IMF wrath in next review
"Relevant authorities have sensitised caretaker federal minister for energy how imperative increase in gas prices is," says official
By Our Correspondent
August 25, 2023
The International Monetary Fund logo can be seen in this picture. — AFP/File
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan may face annoyance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the next review under the $3 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) loan over its failure to notify an increase in gas tariff, which was determined by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) on June 2, 2023.
The next review of the SBA loan of $3 billion for the next tranche of $1 billion is due in November and the government is left with no option but to increase the gas tariff by 45-50 per cent. Both the gas companies are facing a shortfall of Rs657.766 billion. The Fund may also take up this very issue any time with the government prior to the review meetings.
“The relevant authorities have sensitised caretaker federal minister for energy how imperative an increase in gas prices is. If the government does not take the required action in 40 days after the determination by Ogra, then the regulator must notify the required raise in gas price as per the law amended on the directives of IMF and World Bank. Now 83 days have elapsed since the determination by Ogra about an increase in gas prices by 45-50 per cent,” top officials of the Energy Ministry told The News.
The Petroleum Division tailored various scenarios for an increase in gas prices based on political damage control under which low-class consumers would be passed less increase and high-end consumers would be passed on the maximum increase to compensate for the low-end consumers. However, the former PDM [Pakistan Democratic Movement] government failed to take the decision to this effect and now the responsibility rests with the caretaker setup about an increase in gas tariff.
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority on June 2, 2023, announced an increase of 50 per cent (Rs415.11 per MMBTU) for consumers of the Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL) pushing the subscribed gas price up to Rs1238.68 per MMBTU. The regulator increased the gas price by 45pc (417.23 per MMBTU for the consumers of Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGCL) for 2023-24.
The SNGPL still has the previous year’s accumulative shortfall of Rs560.378 billion up to FY23, while Sui Southern has a shortfall of Rs97.388 billion and this is how the existing shortfall of both the gas companies stands at Rs657.766 billion.
The IMF wants the government to carve a strategy to end oil and gas sector circular debt which stands at Rs1.7 trillion, out of which gas sector circular debt is at Rs1.3 trillion. The PDM government had submitted a plan to the IMF to manage the gas sector’s circular debt based on the dividends ploughing back schemes to reduce Rs543 billion without the consultation of OGDCL.
According to the plan, the federal government would inject around Rs414bn into the Sui Northern and Sui Southern gas companies through supplementary grants for payment of outstanding dues to gas producers, OGDCL, PPL and GHPL. Out of these funds, the SNGPL and the SSGCL would clear outstanding liabilities of about Rs225bn to the OGDCL, Rs62bn to the PPL and Rs127bn to the GHPL. On top of these, OGDCL and PPL would arrange about Rs56bn on their own and partially liquidate some of the investment bonds.
In return, the three gas producers would pay Rs475bn dividends to the federal government on their retained earnings, estimated to be around Rs1.44 trillion as of June 30, 2022. The government currently holds 100pc stakes in GHPL, 85pc in OGDCL and 75pc in PPL.
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The Juggernaut
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KARACHI:
The Pakistan stock market crashed on Thursday while the rupee also maintained its downturn amid rising concerns related to stagflation and a deepening economic crisis.
Pakistan Stock Exchange's (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index dropped by over 1,750 points or almost 3.8%, slipping well below 44,500 points.
Speaking to The Express Tribune, Topline Securities CEO Muhammad Sohail said "stocks are down another 1,750 points due to the non-stop fall in the rupee".
Dealers reported that the Pakistani rupee declined by Rs1.50, hitting a new all-time low of Rs305.55 against the greenback around noon.
The local currency continued its record breaking downward spree in the wake of speculative demand for the greenback in the domestic economy.
Read A NATION STARVES, AN ECONOMY SUFFERS
Market talk suggests that the caretaker government's view of the current economic crisis in Pakistan is the primary reason for causing panic in capital markets.
The dominant sentiment in the market is that caretaker Finance Minister Shamshad Akhtar should give a policy statement as to how the incumbent government will tackle the crisis.
To recall, PSX is reeling after hitting a six-year high at over 49,000 points in July in the wake of the acquisition of a new International Monetary Fund loan programme of $3 billion in late June 2023.
The currency has depreciated by 5% or Rs17 under the first two weeks of the caretaker government.
Capital markets are also melting due to high political temperatures in the country, leading to uncertainty over when the next general elections, which were initially speculatively slated for November 2023, will be held.
NutCracker
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Artificial appreciation of PKR to encourage imports: Pasha
ISLAMABAD: “The crackdown on illegal exchange dealers and envisaged investment inflows from friendly countries has...
www.brecorder.com
Artificial appreciation of PKR to encourage imports: Pasha
Zaheer Abbasi | Tahir Amin Published September 13, 2023 Updated about 3 hours ago
ISLAMABAD: “The crackdown on illegal exchange dealers and envisaged investment inflows from friendly countries has been the major reason for a higher fall in the rupee against the dollar in the open market than inter-bank rate.”
This was stated by former Finance minister Dr Hafeez Pasha while talking to Business Recorder on Tuesday. However, he cautioned that an artificial appreciation of the rupee against dollar would encourage imports, which would, in turn, fuel a trade deficit with negative ramifications on the current account.
Pasha added that in such a scenario it would be difficult for the country to limit current account deficit to $6 billion and as a result, foreign exchange reserves, already under pressure, would deplete swiftly.
He further referred to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection that Pakistan would have to depreciate the exchange rate by 20.4 percent to maintain the trade deficit at a reasonable level.
The former minister said that due to regulatory weakness and manipulation by exchange companies, the difference between the inter-bank and open market rate widened to 9-10 percent against the 1.25 percent (plus/ minus) agreed with the IMF. He hinted that there could be some negative impact on investment inflows from friendly countries under SIFC.
Chairman Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECA), Malik Bostan told Business Recorder that the crackdown against black market has begun yielding positive results in the market as the local currency has started appreciating against the dollar.
It was the black market that had led to a difference of Rs 30 between the inter-bank and open market, Bostan claimed, adding that if the crackdown continues and the market monitored on a regular basis, the dollar may come down to Rs 250-260. He said that as a result of the crackdown, demand for the dollar declined.
Bostan further argued that the significant difference in the rupee-dollar parity in the open market and inter-bank rate led to a decline in remittances as the remitters naturally preferred the hawala/ hundi mechanism.
Bostan said that he is hopeful that remittances would improve by up to 20 percent if the crackdown against the black marketers continues and regular monitoring was ensured.
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Kitne madarchod hai ye pakiArtificial appreciation of PKR to encourage imports: Pasha
ISLAMABAD: “The crackdown on illegal exchange dealers and envisaged investment inflows from friendly countries has...www.brecorder.com
Artificial appreciation of PKR to encourage imports: Pasha
Zaheer Abbasi | Tahir Amin Published September 13, 2023 Updated about 3 hours ago
ISLAMABAD: “The crackdown on illegal exchange dealers and envisaged investment inflows from friendly countries has been the major reason for a higher fall in the rupee against the dollar in the open market than inter-bank rate.”
This was stated by former Finance minister Dr Hafeez Pasha while talking to Business Recorder on Tuesday. However, he cautioned that an artificial appreciation of the rupee against dollar would encourage imports, which would, in turn, fuel a trade deficit with negative ramifications on the current account.
Pasha added that in such a scenario it would be difficult for the country to limit current account deficit to $6 billion and as a result, foreign exchange reserves, already under pressure, would deplete swiftly.
He further referred to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection that Pakistan would have to depreciate the exchange rate by 20.4 percent to maintain the trade deficit at a reasonable level.
The former minister said that due to regulatory weakness and manipulation by exchange companies, the difference between the inter-bank and open market rate widened to 9-10 percent against the 1.25 percent (plus/ minus) agreed with the IMF. He hinted that there could be some negative impact on investment inflows from friendly countries under SIFC.
Chairman Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECA), Malik Bostan told Business Recorder that the crackdown against black market has begun yielding positive results in the market as the local currency has started appreciating against the dollar.
It was the black market that had led to a difference of Rs 30 between the inter-bank and open market, Bostan claimed, adding that if the crackdown continues and the market monitored on a regular basis, the dollar may come down to Rs 250-260. He said that as a result of the crackdown, demand for the dollar declined.
Bostan further argued that the significant difference in the rupee-dollar parity in the open market and inter-bank rate led to a decline in remittances as the remitters naturally preferred the hawala/ hundi mechanism.
Bostan said that he is hopeful that remittances would improve by up to 20 percent if the crackdown against the black marketers continues and regular monitoring was ensured.
Exports to US plunge 24pc in July-August
Duty drawback on local taxes and levies has created additional challenges for exporters.
www.dawn.com
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MashaOla
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Pakistan’s textile exports plunge 12% year-on-year in September: APTMA
- On a monthly basis, exports decrease nearly 8% in comparison to August
Pakistan’s textile exports plunge 12% year-on-year in September: APTMA
On a monthly basis, exports decrease nearly 8% in comparison to August
www.brecorder.com
They got their IMF bheek which reduces panic buying of dollars
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They claim they cracked down on hoarders and the 'currency mafia', but it will simply mean that PKR's gonna blow bad in coming weeks.
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