Pakistan Economy: News & Discussion

[ezsasa]

They got their IMF bheek which reduces panic buying of dollars

15% drop is quite a number to be attributed solely to speculative aspect of the market, must be something else.

 

[ezsasa]

They claim they cracked down on hoarders and the 'currency mafia', but it will simply mean that PKR's gonna blow bad in coming weeks.

looks like imports reduced more than exports reduction, relative difference between the two could explain drop in demand for USD thereby exchange rate.

edit: reduction in relative difference between $ outflow and inflow

but pakistan being pakistan, as @karn mentioned there will be more to the story.
=======

The export of goods in the first quarter (July to September) dipped by 3.78pc to $6.89bn this year against $7.17bn over the corresponding period of last year.

The import bill fell 25.36pc to $12.18bn in July to September FY24 from $16.32bn over the corresponding months of last year.

Exports reverse declining trend in September

Trade deficit narrows 42pc in first quarter.

www.dawn.com

 

[karn]

One more aspect .. oil price is lower this year compared to last year . Our own imports are a lot lower this quarter as well compared to last year.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Key economic indicators reflect a worsening trend (as per data released by the Finance Division) in July-August 2023-24 against the comparable period of the year before: remittances declined by 21.6 percent, exports by 8.3 percent, credit to private sector declined by 222.8 percent, which no doubt contributed to negative 15 percent growth in large-scale manufacturing in June this year (compared to plus 11.6 percent in June last year), fiscal deficit rose by 7.3 percent, and while foreign exchange reserves rose to 7.7 billion dollars they were almost entirely borrowed.

Can economy afford another Dar tenure?

Key economic indicators reflect a worsening trend (as per data released by the Finance Division) in July-August...

www.brecorder.com

 

[Lord Darklord]

 

[Azaad]

Pakistan businesses soared in early 1950s compared to India. Gujarati Muslims were the reason

In 'No Birds of Passage', Michael O'Sullivan explores the history of Gujarati Muslim business communities like Bohras, Khojas and Memons.

theprint.in

 

[FalconSlayers]

When did this happen?

Data released notes that the GDP for July-September 2022 was 84,658 billion rupees while it rose to 105,817 billion rupees in the same period of 2023 – a rise of nearly 25 percent. While this rise is in nominal terms as it does not take account of inflation or money in circulation yet it does raise questions about the credibility of a comparison which at this stage maybe critical to understand any improvement or otherwise of the performance of key macroeconomic indicators.

Consolidated fiscal operations

EDITORIAL: The Finance Ministry uploaded a summary of the consolidated federal and provincial fiscal operations for...

www.brecorder.com

 

[FalconSlayers]

October cement despatches decline 5.78% YoY

Oct cement despatches decline 5.78pc YoY

LAHORE: Cement despatches during October 2023 were registered at 4.007 million tons against 4.253 million tons...

www.brecorder.com

 

[FalconSlayers]

THE caretaker government is hard at work on all matters economic. Its resuscitation efforts include reviving the Karachi to Peshawar railway line (ML-1), a project to be supplied and financed by China for $6.7 billion that will cut travel time between these two cities to 18 hours.

Assuming a three per cent interest rate, a 2pc insurance cost and a 20-year payback period, annual payments come to $530 million.

Inflation, debt and ML-1

Can we afford such expenditure on a new railway line at this time?

www.dawn.com

 

[Cheepek]

What China wants from Pakistan

The first thing to do is to drain all emotion out of the relationship.

www.dawn.com

 

[treesspeakvietnamese]

 

[Azaad]

Turns out Paxtan's exposure to Chinese loans in much more than previously thought which shouldn't be a surprise at least to us even if the debt is reported to be anywhere between 69-102 billion USD.

However the real surprise here is Clutterji reporting that Russia borrowed to the tune of ~ 160 billion USD from China in the year 2020-21 which was during the Wuhan virus pandemic & before the war in Ukraine. If this is true one wonders what exactly is Russia's exposure to Chinese loans today.

 

[FalconSlayers]

The Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) output decreased by 4.08 percent for October 2023 when compared with October 2022 and two percent when compared with September 2023, says Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The LSMI output decreased by 0.44 per cent during the first four months (July-October) of the current fiscal year, i.e. 2023-24 when compared with the same period of last year.

Oct LSMI output down 4.08pc YoY

The LSMI quantum index number (QIM) estimated for October 2023 is 111.06

www.brecorder.com

 

[FalconSlayers]

10% GDP growth incoming!

Autos: Winter is coming

Warning bells had been wrung. Automakers were keeping shutters down on their production facilities and imported CKD...

www.brecorder.com

 

[FalconSlayers]

Declining inflows signal tough year for rupee, experts warn
Shahid Iqbal Published December 17, 2023 Updated about 13 hours ago

KARACHI: The rupee is in for a rough ride next year, industry sources and currency experts have warned, insisting that the local currency might face a significant devaluation as its current facade of stability is not backed by economic fundamentals.

To back up their assertion, experts point to the current fiscal year’s data indicating troubling trends.

For instance, remittances dropped by 10.3 per cent year-on-year during the five months from July to November, resulting in a $1.3 billion loss compared to the year-ago period. This decline followed a $4bn decrease in remittances in the last fiscal year.

Export figures are also not encouraging, with proceeds falling 4.4pc to $2.57bn in November and rising by a meagre 2pc during July-November.

Say traders are already factoring in a 5-10pc depreciation in 2024

These dwindling inflows are set against the backdrop of import expenditures that are twice as high as exports during the five-month period, further straining the rupee’s position amid the rising demand and poor inflows of dollars.

“The PKR is facing many challenges. This is why traders are factoring in a 5-10pc depreciation next year as Pakistan suffers from near-zero growth, low productivity, and higher repayments with fewer avenues for raising foreign exchange,” said Faisal Mamsa, CEO of Tresmark.

Atif Ahmed, a leading currency dealer in the interbank market, expressed the same fear, particularly citing poor inflows. He said the current exchange rate was managed with tight control over imports and now it was too hard for the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to keep the foreign exchange reserves at $7bn.

“The SBP buys dollars from the market to service debts and keep the reserves at $7bn, but it’s not going to last forever. Inflows like remittances, foreign direct investments (FDI) and export proceeds must rise to arrest the possible decline in the coming weeks,” he said.

While the caretaker government is trying to attract foreign investment, targeting a $100bn influx over five years through the Special Investment Facilitation Council, most experts remain sceptical.

Mr Mamsa points to the lack of trust, credibility and political instability as significant hurdles to achieving this ambitious target.

Though the Election Commission has announced the poll schedule, there is no clarity about the next government and its strategy to boost the economy.

Amir Aziz, an exporter of finished textile products, said, “We don’t know how the new government will tackle this ailing economy under enormous pressure of poor economic indicators.”

He said there was no alignment between the economic growth and the strategy. All efforts, he said, were being made to avoid default, reduce trade and current account deficits and follow IMF directions in every segment of the economy.

“There is no indigenous plan or strategy to improve the country’s economic health, which has been dire for the last 20 months,” he lamented. “Trade and industry find it challenging to keep functioning in the face of 29pc inflation, 22pc interest rate and curbs on raw material imports.”

Published in Dawn, December 17th, 2023

Declining inflows signal tough year for rupee, experts warn

Say traders are already factoring in a 5-10pc depreciation in 2024.

www.dawn.com

 

[FalconSlayers]

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank has projected a drop in remittance flows to Pakistan to $24 billion in 2023 and further drop below $22 billion with 10 percent decline in 2024, saying the growing economic turmoil sparked by a balance of payment crisis and high debt have led to a worsening loss of public confidence reflected in a diversion of remittances from formal to informal channels.

World Bank projects drop in remittance flows

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank has projected a drop in remittance flows to Pakistan to $24 billion in 2023 and further...

www.brecorder.com

 

[FalconSlayers]

Power generation hits 33-month low
Reaches 7547GWh, declining 21% compared to month of October 2023

Power generation hits 33-month low | The Express Tribune

Reaches 7547GWh, declining 21% compared to month of October 2023

tribune.com.pk

 

[FalconSlayers]

ISLAMABAD: The country’s textile group exports declined by around 6.50 percent during the first five months (July-November) of the current fiscal year and stood at $6.883 billion compared to $7.361 billion during the same period of 2022-23, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said.

Textile group: Jul-Nov exports decline 6.5pc to $6.88bn YoY

Country’s overall exports during July-November fiscal year 2023-24 total $12.172 billion (provisional)

www.brecorder.com

ISLAMABAD: Petroleum group imports witnessed a negative growth of 16.19 per cent during the first five months (July-November) of the current fiscal year and stood at $6.453 billion when compared to $7.7 billion during the same period of last fiscal year, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said.

Petroleum products imports witnessed 25.08 per cent negative growth during July-November 2023-24 and remained at $2.661 billion compared to $3.552 billion during the same period of last fiscal year.

Jul-Nov: Petroleum group imports witness 16.19pc negative growth

ISLAMABAD: Petroleum group imports witnessed a negative growth of 16.19 per cent during the first five months...

www.brecorder.com

 

[Azaad]

ISLAMABAD: The country’s textile group exports declined by around 6.50 percent during the first five months (July-November) of the current fiscal year and stood at $6.883 billion compared to $7.361 billion during the same period of 2022-23, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said.

Textile group: Jul-Nov exports decline 6.5pc to $6.88bn YoY

Country’s overall exports during July-November fiscal year 2023-24 total $12.172 billion (provisional)

www.brecorder.com

ISLAMABAD: Petroleum group imports witnessed a negative growth of 16.19 per cent during the first five months (July-November) of the current fiscal year and stood at $6.453 billion when compared to $7.7 billion during the same period of last fiscal year, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said.

Petroleum products imports witnessed 25.08 per cent negative growth during July-November 2023-24 and remained at $2.661 billion compared to $3.552 billion during the same period of last fiscal year.

Jul-Nov: Petroleum group imports witness 16.19pc negative growth

ISLAMABAD: Petroleum group imports witnessed a negative growth of 16.19 per cent during the first five months...

www.brecorder.com

I see Paxtan is well ahead of most countries in it's target of de Carbonization . If things proceed as per their own unplanned planning , they should be a net zero emitter in about a decade from now. Could be earlier too. Alhamdulillah !

 

[FalconSlayers]

EDITORIAL: State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported a statistic that should send alarm bells ringing throughout the country but particularly for all stakeholders, political and institutional, that the federal and provincial governments borrowed 2.876 trillion rupees from 1 July 2023 to 16 December 2023 against 961 billion rupees borrowed in the comparable period last fiscal year – a 200 percent rise so far.

Soaring govt borrowing: grim fiscal reality

EDITORIAL: State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported a statistic that should send alarm bells ringing throughout the...

www.brecorder.com