Pakistan Economy: News & Discussion

FalconSlayers

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Economic woes driving global firms’ exodus
Mubarak Zeb Khan
December 31, 2023

More multinational companies have divested their assets or temporarily halted their operations in Pakistan continuing a trend that began in calendar 2022.

Over the past 30 months, numerous firms have chosen to relocate their activities outside of Pakistan or reduce operations due to significant political and economic challenges.

Multinational corporations (MNCs) naturally experience fluctuations in their expansion and downsizing efforts, influenced by factors like access to capital, availability of workforce and strategic considerations. In Pakistan, a combination of policy decisions and an unfavourable regulatory environment has made it relatively easy for these companies to make a choice: either cease operations or pursue cost-cutting measures such as downsizing or divesting their assets.

The outgoing calendar year 2023 began with announcements from corporations such as Lotte Chemicals which sold its whole 75pc ownership and Puma Holdings divested its 57pc stake in January. This was a period when MNCs were examining their worldwide footprints while taking into account a variety of issues. Pakistan was rated at the top due to severe political instability and contradictory economic policies.

Political instability and inconsistent policies are main causes
In the oil sector, global energy giant Shell announced on June 14 that it will leave Pakistan after 75 years of existence. Another oil company is expected to make a similar announcement within the next year, reducing the presence of MNCs in the energy industry to a bare minimum. The issue is unrelated to whether or not Shell products will be available following its exit. The items will be available in the domestic market, but the leaving of one of the world’s top 500 corporations would send a negative signal to other MNCs looking to invest in Pakistan. Before making any choice, MNCs always consult with enterprises that already have a presence in a given country.

In the pharmaceutical sector, three MNCs have left or scaled down their activities in Pakistan in the last two and a half years, and many more are considering leaving. MNCs’ representation in pharmaceuticals has gradually declined from 40 to 24. The pharmaceutical sector faces challenges ranging from medication registration to pricing, particularly from bureaucracy and political regimes. While smuggled pharmaceuticals are more expensive, the political government is unwilling to raise the price of paracetamol from Rs1.50 to Rs1.75 per pill, despite the country’s biggest-ever devaluation and inflation.

Another notable example is Telenor Group’s sale of its Pakistan telco operations to PTCL. Airlift, Swvl, VAVA Cars, and Careem are among the prominent enterprises that have discontinued operations in Pakistan in 2022. However, consumer goods MNCs will continue to operate due to profit margins and a consumer market of 250 million.

Causes of leaving

In the 1990s, developing countries began to implement reforms, while in Pakistan, political parties were busy undermining each other’s governments. Since 2014, the same trend has resurfaced with a new vigour, culminating in a new phase in April 2022. Since then, the country has had political and economic challenges.

Unfortunately, the conflict is not about improving institutions but about replacing one person with another. Two families and one individual drive Pakistani politics. MNCs are closely watching these developments that may only expected in some least-developed countries.

The accountability offices were established in response to political victimisation during the 1990s and early 2000s. Courts have been preoccupied for the previous two and a half years with political bails and case clearances, as well as taking up new cases of politicians.

The administration is preoccupied with filing case after case against politicians, while court orders for bail are ignored. Non-compliance with a court decision is also a major concern for investors. Saudi Arabia has recently tied the availability of international arbitration to any investment.

Policymaking in Pakistan is uncertain. The corporate sector was surprised by super taxes on certain industries and foreign exchange bank profits. Instead of letting the State Bank of Pakistan handle foreign exchange manipulation, the government chose the option of taxing banks for exchange transaction gains, which the court stayed. The decision already sends a bad signal to foreign investors.

High borrowing rates of 22pc also make working capital and expansion challenging. Industrial energy costs rise daily. Unabated smuggling, under-invoicing and intellectual property rights infringement are also important worries for MNCs.
 

FalconSlayers

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However, inevitably, some of the estimates have raised doubts about their reliability. The objective of this article is to identify some of the problematic statistics and estimates.

We take up first a review of the GDP estimates with the new base year of 2015-16. There has been an 11.3% increase in the size of the GDP at factor cost in 2015-16 at current prices with the base year of 2015-16, as compared to the magnitude with the base year of 2005-06.

Much of the increase is in the informal sectors of the economy, like livestock, small-scale manufacturing, construction and transport and communications. The fundamental problem is that the proper sizing especially of informal activities has to be preceded by a nationwide census of establishments and household production units to provide adequate benchmark data for rebasing.
Such a large exercise was carried out prior to the 2005-06 rebasing but this was not undertaken before the last rebasing size. Consequently, the sectoral estimates of value-added are subjective and doubtful in some cases highlighted above.

One test of the validity of the new GDP estimates is to determine the growth rate of consumption expenditure in 2015-16. This is estimated as a residual. If the growth rate is high than this indicates that the sectoral value-added estimates may be exaggerated.
The estimated growth rate in real consumption expenditure is as high as 8.5% in 2015-16, with a GDP growth rate of less than half at 4.1%. This tends to confirm the doubtful nature of the sizing of the some of the sectors in the 2015-16 GDP rebasing exercise.
Turning now to the more recent exercise of preparation of quarterly GDP estimates, there are some major concerns here also. The third quarter, January to March, has been identified as the largest in 2022-23, while the first quarter, July to September, emerges as the smallest quarter.

The revealed difference in the GDP of these two quarters is only 2.2%. This is an extraordinarily small magnitude and apparently highlights the absence of significant seasonality in the overall economy of Pakistan.


[
QUOTE]The very big surprise is that despite two crop seasons, there is virtually no quarterly variation overall in the value-added by the agricultural sector of Pakistan. The difference between the quarterly peak and trough in the sector is an unbelievably low 1.6%. Apparently, the seasonality in crop production is, more or less, completely neutralized by the opposite seasonality in livestock activities.[/QUOTE]

This only marginal variation in quarterly GDPs in Pakistan is in contrast with the revealed relatively high seasonality of economic activities in India. According to the quarterly Indian GDP estimates for 2022-23, the difference in value-added between the quarterly peak and trough is as much as 13.7%. If anything, seasonality ought to be more in Pakistan because the share in the GDP of agriculture is higher than in India.
The ratio of output to input value has been derived for each sector from the PBS series. It is truly surprising that the input to output ratio has remained unchanged in the case of the large-scale manufacturing sector every year from 1999-2000 to 2020-21 at 73.6%.

This ratio cannot mathematically remain the same over such a long period due to technological changes, divergence in sources of inputs and varying rates of increase between domestic and international prices. Therefore, this constancy in the input to output value is inexplicable. There are similar problems in other sectors like wholesale and retail trade.
There also continue to be measurement problems with other PBS series like the rate of inflation, unemployment, etc. These have been highlighted in previous articles.

There is a need to also highlight that while the PBS has added very important new time series to the data base on the economy of Pakistan, it is falling behind in key cross-sectional surveys.
The last Household Integrated Economic Survey was as far back as 2018-19. Similarly, the last Labor Force Survey was in 2020-21 while the Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey was last undertaken in 2019-20. These are very important surveys and need to be undertaken on a priority basis to highlight the extent to which there has been a deterioration in the level of inequality, incidence of poverty, rise in the level of unemployment and decline in the coverage of basic services.
LMAO
@Crazywithmath @gslv markIII
 

shade

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UN projects 2% growth in Pakistan in 2024
Sometimes i wish we weren't a 1 billion strong Great Power-in-the-waiting.

Sometimes i wish we had the simple existence of a brainded populace thanks to a violent and evil religion, with an elite class of military land owners ruling over us, and an eternal enemy to fight for which we can receive various foreign patrons.

Life would be simpler, i could curse the kuffars for all my problems, put my ass in the air 5 times a day for both my god and my uniformed masters

Perhaps in the future one of my male descendants would too ascend to the Master Martial Marshall Race and rule over the race of plebs

This thread is just for pointing and laughing at these subhumans, but i doubt the average goat fucker there cares about the state of their economy, how to fix it or any future of their nation apart from Ghajba -e- Hind.

Neither does their ruling caste of Praetorians

Or the subhumans from that PeeDF forum
 

zathura98

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RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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However, inevitably, some of the estimates have raised doubts about their reliability. The objective of this article is to identify some of the problematic statistics and estimates.

We take up first a review of the GDP estimates with the new base year of 2015-16. There has been an 11.3% increase in the size of the GDP at factor cost in 2015-16 at current prices with the base year of 2015-16, as compared to the magnitude with the base year of 2005-06.









[QUOTE]The very big surprise is that despite two crop seasons, there is virtually no quarterly variation overall in the value-added by the agricultural sector of Pakistan. The difference between the quarterly peak and trough in the sector is an unbelievably low 1.6%. Apparently, the seasonality in crop production is, more or less, completely neutralized by the opposite seasonality in livestock activities.








LMAO
@Crazywithmath @gslv markIII
[/QUOTE]
This is why it is easy to use per capital electricity consumption as a reliable measure. Porkis consume about 600 kWh per porkson. India per capita is now north of 1700 kWh per sanathan. So, their PCI is 1/3rd of India’s which means around $1000, assuming India’s pci will be $3000 soon. Porkiland Does look like a $1000 pci shitehole like in bihar . UP is now at $1300 pci and rising every year.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Sometimes i wish we weren't a 1 billion strong Great Power-in-the-waiting.

Sometimes i wish we had the simple existence of a brainded populace thanks to a violent and evil religion, with an elite class of military land owners ruling over us, and an eternal enemy to fight for which we can receive various foreign patrons.

Life would be simpler, i could curse the kuffars for all my problems, put my ass in the air 5 times a day for both my god and my uniformed masters

Perhaps in the future one of my male descendants would too ascend to the Master Martial Marshall Race and rule over the race of plebs

This thread is just for pointing and laughing at these subhumans, but i doubt the average goat fucker there cares about the state of their economy, how to fix it or any future of their nation apart from Ghajba -e- Hind.

Neither does their ruling caste of Praetorians

Or the subhumans from that PeeDF forum
Porkis are A-rubs. Why are they grouped in South Asia? Group them in Middle East.
 

FalconSlayers

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LMAO
@Crazywithmath @gslv markIII
This is why it is easy to use per capital electricity consumption as a reliable measure. Porkis consume about 600 kWh per porkson. India per capita is now north of 1700 kWh per sanathan. So, their PCI is 1/3rd of India’s which means around $1000, assuming India’s pci will be $3000 soon. Porkiland Does look like a $1000 pci shitehole like in bihar . UP is now at $1300 pci and rising every year.
[/QUOTE]



Your numbers are wrong, they're at 460KWh and we're at 1215 KWh.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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This is why it is easy to use per capital electricity consumption as a reliable measure. Porkis consume about 600 kWh per porkson. India per capita is now north of 1700 kWh per sanathan. So, their PCI is 1/3rd of India’s which means around $1000, assuming India’s pci will be $3000 soon. Porkiland Does look like a $1000 pci shitehole like in bihar . UP is now at $1300 pci and rising every year.


Your numbers are wrong, they're at 460KWh and we're at 1215 KWh.
[/QUOTE]
I don’t know about pork I numbers but your Indian numbers are from 21-22.

In 2023 there was a tremendous growth in electricity consumption per capita in India.

The numbers I quote are estimates for 2023. If porkis are at 460, we maybe close to 4x consumption over porki’s. India’s electricity consumption is increasing at a massive rate pointing to a growing middle class and industry using all kinds of stuff.
 

sameer3694

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anyone has any data on pak's gdp for last 5 years ? i could'nt find any data for pak on net . Somehow their row data is emty like the north koreans
All their GDP figures and data are mostly false or are grossly exaggerated. It’s really hard to believe that it’s a $340B economy when the whole country can’t even sell 5000 cars a month, and somehow industry & manufacturing is 20% of their GDP. Something's amiss. Perhaps they're adding some of their undocumented eakanami into their real stats. Who knows? lol/
 
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FalconSlayers

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All their GDP figures and data are mostly false or are grossly exaggerated. It’s really hard to believe that it’s a $340B economy when the whole country can’t even sell 5000 cars a month, and somehow industry & manufacturing is 20% of their GDP. Something's amiss. Perhaps they're adding some of their undocumented eakanami into their real stats. Who knows? lol/
Their economy is recessing each year but donkeynomics at Paki Bureau of Shitistics is claiming $340 bn GDP :lol:.

.


1 lakh units of 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers combined sold each month in supa powa paxtan.

In India 1.5 to 2 million 2 wheelers are sold each month, while 1 lakh 3 wheelers sold each month here.
 

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FalconSlayers

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Financial crisis looms over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as federal dues reach Rs515bn

PESHAWAR: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) is facing a severe financial crisis, with the federal government’s outstanding dues, including electricity net benefits and other receivables, soaring to a staggering 515 billion rupees.

The federal authorities have imposed significant cuts on KP’s share during the current fiscal year, attributing the shortfall to fund shortages.

To meet the shortfall in expenditures and fulfill commitments, substantial cuts have been made in the developmental budget. Facing a formidable financial crisis, KP has a meager 14.62% share in the National Finance Commission (NFC) due to the war on terrorism, with an additional 1% allocated in support. This amounts to 856 billion rupees during the fiscal year 2023-24. However, in the first five months of the current fiscal year, KP received only 295bn rupees rupees compared to the initially expected 356 billion rupees.

The non-payment by the federal government has led to KP incurring a loss of 62 billion rupees during these five months. On the other hand, KP’s share in net electricity benefits, including other receivables, amounts to 85 billion rupees annually. However, the province receives a mere 7bnn rupees from the federal government, resulting in a substantial loss of 78 billion rupees.


Tribal Districts’ Financial Struggle

According to the provincial finance Department, the financial crisis in tribal districts has worsened. The annual budget for salaries and pensions of employees in tribal districts is 152bn rupees, with only 66bnn rupees allocated by the federal government.

Additionally, tribal districts receive no share in the NFC award for the fiscal year 2023-24. During the first five months of the fiscal year, tribal districts received 33bn rupees, while the required amount is 63bn rupees, resulting in a shortfall of 30bm rupees while the annual shortfall is estimated to be 85bn rupees. The lack of funds for development in tribal areas is raising concerns as the progress in these regions not only impacts the local population but also positively influences the overall national well-being.

Budgetary Constraints, Developmental Cutbacks

The KP government, in an attempt to control the financial crisis caused by federal non-payment, has made substantial cuts in developmental projects in the province. Despite these efforts, the current financial year is expected to end with a significant imbalance between available resources and the essential financial needs of the province.

The financial crisis has raised concerns about its potential adverse effects on essential services, the completion of developmental projects, and meeting financial responsibilities in tribal districts. The fear is that the federal non-payment during the current fiscal year could significantly impact the economic situation in the province.

Challenges and Opportunities for KP’s Economic Growth

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa finds itself at a delicate juncture, with historical lows in developmental expenditures. The budget for developmental projects during the initial five months of the current fiscal year was 44bn rupees, including projects funded by provincial ADP, M&ADP, and foreign assistance, indicating a substantial decrease compared to the previous years.

Efforts to increase economic strength and address financial challenges are essential. Following the footsteps of Punjab in enhancing tax and non-tax revenues could be beneficial, as Punjab has increased its revenue by over 500 billion rupees. Timely payments and keeping promises for developmental projects are crucial for the progress of historically neglected regions.

KP Urgently Requires Federal Assistance

The ongoing financial challenges in KP necessitate immediate attention and resolution through collaboration between the federal and provincial governments. The merger of tribal districts, a significant increase in population, and a 36% increase in the area highlight the urgency of addressing these financial issues.

With the financial crisis intensifying, the NFC holds a key role. A proposed increase in KP’s share from 14.62% to 19.64% can significantly contribute to alleviating the financial burden.

**Worsening Scenario with the Peshawar BRT Project and Financial Reforms**

The financial scenario worsens as KP grapples with the Peshawar Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) project’s financial mismanagement and faces difficulties in fulfilling financial commitments. The provincial government’s records indicate a private investment track record, making the implementation of mega-projects viable without additional financial burdens.

The Public-Private Partnership model has the potential to expedite the implementation of mega-projects in the province without overburdening public finances. These initiatives can create a conducive environment for sustainable economic growth, addressing social concerns, and positively impacting the pace of development in the province.

The pressing financial crisis, exacerbated by federal non-payment and cutbacks in developmental projects, demands immediate attention and action. Collaborative efforts between the federal and provincial governments, exploration of financial reforms, and leveraging public-private partnerships are crucial for steering KP away from the brink of a severe financial crisis and ensuring sustained economic growth.





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IMF warns of sustained high inflation in Pakistan, urges monetary tightening

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Govt borrows Rs6tr from banks

The government made record high borrowing of Rs3.1 trillion from banks in the first half (Jul-Dec) of the current fiscal year, which was 197% higher compared to Rs1.05 trillion in the same period of last year.
A one-percentage-point increase in the policy rate pushes up interest payments by Rs200-250 billion. The central bank jacked up its policy rate by 15 percentage points over 21 months from 7% in September 2021 to 22% in June 2023 to control a stubborn inflation.
This indicates that most of the tax collection of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) will be utilised to make interest payments. The FBR is tasked to collect Rs9.4 trillion in taxes in FY24. So far, tax receipts have remained higher than the assigned monthly targets.
Alpha Beta Core’s Schehzad added “the caretaker government is heavily borrowing money and creating a massive debt pile without caring about the existing debt burden.”
State borrowing from local banks reached a new high in the last six months. The borrowing, mostly under the caretaker administration, crossed Rs3.1 trillion in Jul-Dec 2023 compared to the Rs3.64 trillion borrowed in the entire previous year.
“This means the caretaker government has already acquired as much debt as the last government took in an entire year.”
At this pace, government borrowing from local banks may end up above Rs6 trillion, up 65% year-on-year, “the highest in a year and already a record for a caretaker setup, pushing the country further deep into the debt trap.”
“This will continue to cause inflation and potentially lead to the weakening of local currency (resulting in more inflation), while putting more debt burden on the economy, leading to higher taxes (for debt repayment), thereby compromising on investment and growth potential of the country,” he said.

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Oil products imports decline 24% in July-Dec due to weakened demand, crackdown
 

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