Even after a very long and grueling discussion Indian MRCA contest is still as unclear as it was in the day one. But personally i dont think it will be that difficult to guess the best choice if we dont take too many redundant factors into consideration to just complicate the puzzle. Here i will try to put forward a reasoning chain possibly shortest of its kind ...lolz.
This MRCA competition has to distinct compartments in it viz. I. strategic II. diplomatic. Before we proceed further into detail lets discuss about the real objective of Indian airforce to fish for an MRCA in the first place. As far as my knowledge & information goes i have boiled down to these few points as mentioned below.
1. Pakistan: Not likely to field 5 th gen fighter for a long time to come. Certainly got their best possible fighter in the form of F - 16 blk 52 as when comes to overall capability including advanced electronics & AAMs J10s are highly unlikely to match F-16 blk52. By looking at their financial condition & US presence & dictate lurking over their head rafael & typhoon looks extremely distant possibility. [Even possibility of technology smuggling by china will keep france and European consortium at bay].
IAF NEED: So IAF needs a fighter to stay ahead of f - 16 blk 52 in every aspect, mostly in avionics ( mostly in radar, jam proof data link , unique IR seeker specially designed for growlers )
2. CHINA: A. BEST multirole jet Su 30mkm. Optimized for groud attack. In A2A section well match & certainly dominated by Su 30mki with much better avionics & A2A.
A1. J11a/b/c ...chinese copy of Su 27.Sensitive specs are unknown but its obvious from chinese interest in israeli electronics that they cant match Su 30 mki in its current form or with further upgradation
B. J10, Ajet with some what better and proven features than LCA tejas.Though has potential to challenge F 16 export versions commercially but very unlikely to extend this challenge in a real air battle due to lack of top notch avionics & weapons. Looking at the amount of money and endeavor that has gone into j 10 project its unlikely to be a jf 17 like project and will certainly be built in numbers to replace a large number of very old chinese jets.
C. Though pitch is high.Rhetoric is very regularly its just impossible that china can come up with a true 5th gen figheter.So any MLU of the existing 4 to 4.5 gen jets with 5 th avionics looks a distant possibility.
Reasons behind this assumption: 1. Yet to built a credible engine for its jets. So super cruise capability is very distant. Also lack in experience will make it a very difficult job to design an airframe which approves super cruise.2. Yet to achieve true 4 to 4.5 gen avionics including AESA so 5th gen electronics will be just too much fancy and demand from chinese at this point in time and situation is not going to change anytime soon as avionics is possibly the most guarded knowledge even surpassing nukes.
3. Even Russia hasnt yet mastered the above mentioned techs so any possibility of china getting a ToT is ruled out.
IAF NEEDS: IAF needs a jet that can surpass the A2G capability of Su 30 mkm & J 11 variants.Which can stay way ahead in terms of avionics compared to all the existing chinese jets and that may get inducted in foreseeable future( about 10 years atleast).Though russian PESAs clain to have similiar performance but by the very nature of technology used in these two different radars, PESAs are bound to be lacking the extremely high attenuation of AESA type.So a genuine & proven AESA will still have some distinct advantages over its sino russian radars even in its export configuration. AESA being a very well guarded tech with little proliferation at a really implementable level makes it an element of great danger and surprise.So IAF selected jet should have a proven AESA to scare chinese jets.
Comparisons of participating jets in the MRCA contest
ONLY TECHNICAL ASPECTS)
1. MIG 31: Too little too late. Absolutely nothing new to offer which can scare china.Has lots of similarity with some of the existing chinese jets & this will make them feel comfortable.
2. Rafael: A fantastic fighter. Possibly a good A2G force as well but not sure to out perform Su 30 MKM.Avionics are superb and proven except one but most important aspect i.e proven AESA.some stealth features included .With excellent engine & tremendous weapons at a very high cost. Though got some over kill in some corners but lack some vital and decisive scarecrow features to keep chinese at bay.
3. Typhoon: just too unproven.Lots of experimental tech validation.Involving countries getting financially weaken.Avionics top notch but have a lot of unproven gadgets.No proven AESA.
4. Grippen: a little champ. elder brother of tejas. A target for our Tejas mk ii designing team. but certainly not something that you buy to scare an opponent like china.
5. F18 SH: old platform.marine version.regularly participating in exercises picking up from land.Exceptionally good & proven avionics.With only proven AESA in the world.A superb IRST recently included,which was initially denied to india but india fighting out very hard for it.with best A2G( mainly stand off weapons) & A2A weapons.except F 15E no other 4 to 4.5 gen US jet has been so thoroughly tinkered to add some kind of stealth.Being inducted in large numbers by US navy So at least for 20 to 25 years there should be no technical issues regarding supply chain.What ever might be the claim by so called self proclaimed experts of different defence forum and non techical journalists the very fact tht US navy is inducting this jet in big numbers shows that it still has the potential to stay relevant with future up gradation for at least 2 DECADES to come.What can stay relevant for USA for 2025yrs can certainly do so for india for 30 yrs at least.
Conclusion: On technologically proven parameters SH should come on top among these fighters.The price will be yet another plus point for the same jet.When rest of the countries are promising certain techs to be developed in few years USA has already mass producing them for the last 1 decade.USA also has the most advanced and elaborate R&D infra as compared to any other nation on the planet so the immediate future of this fighter regarding MLU is no less bright.
ECONOMIC & GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS OF MRCA RUN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE: We like to state it clearly or not at this moment china is the largest threat to India with pakistan playing shikhandi for it.So when come to overall need and perspective of GOI is would not vary much from what IAF thinks...simply scare china of an embarassment and keep their aspirations under control. Now lets list down Which are the nations that has the capability to form an ally with India to really intimidate china.If we go technologically they would look like this
1. USA 2. RUSSIA !! 3. FRANCE ? 4. UK ?. I think no one is this forum will believe that france & uk can scare china any more & they especially Uk is too absorbed with its own economic issues.So who will India ally in this new age? Russia is not even a shadow of its past when it comes to diplomatic dominance in the world.slowly and surely squandering away all the little technological edge that it had to china.Very poor management.Ever weakening economy.Russia is paying the price for its failure to convert its immense technical know how into true all pervading industrialization.So there is nothing to learn from them so far as economy is concerned. Situation will only degrade for them in the coming years.Here India is facing a far bigger and very powerful nation on over all international position that is china.No little bit of jet buying or ToT from France can keep them under control & we must realize that.Chinese have already marched well ahead of us and due to their inhuman hyper strict regulations are expected to out perform india for at least 2 more decades and after that china will slowdown and crumble by paying the price for its misdeeds but till then we will have to face them & trust me it will be no easy job.They are preparing for something nasty as all recent indications show. Those 60 billion $ trade and bla bla theory will never work.They are not that matured in long term power clinching. All chinese want is the no 1 slot and replace USA ASAP.With the recent diplomatic moves like making ties with south korea & vietnam india has taken the anti to a completely different level.This will seriously challenge the dominance of china in the south aisia. At present this tit for tat might go down very well for the domestic consumption but remember china will never sit and watch. Even a little 2 week long intense skirmish can be suicidal for India at this moment. Preventing a war with much bigger enemy is always much more important that winning it. No other nation except USA not even russia and prevent a war if the situation arises. It can certainly assist india in giving a befitting reply to chinese forces which will be even worse than loosing a small battle and loosing a few thousand sq km of inhospitable land.If china launches a small but well organized blitzkrieg and india manages to surprise them and thwart them back, present day china will never digest it and the following days will only see hundreds of chinese ballistic & cruise missiles creating havoc to our economy.Pakistan will also not miss the golden opportunity to join the party.
I again repeat, in the present scenario India needs to prevent war more than winning it to really grow herself upto the level from where it can dictate the terms in the world stage. Indians have some reservations regarding US owing to its hostile attitude in the past. We say they are often too conservative when comes to sharing high end tech. Yes they are and that why till now they have been able to maintain their supremacy in the world rather than russia which squandered away its edge and created a inhumane rogue nation in disguise. Any sane person would certainly agree that a world with US on top is by far better than a world with undisputed superpower as china or russia. US actions might have antagonized many in the past and present but let me assure you that if the same world was under a complete dominance of any other known top nation situayion would have been far far worse. We have seen UK, we have seen germany. As far as i understand US has been the most tacit and sophisticated in its approach toward holding its supremacy. If we call the present world is under US hegemony then in their absence russians & chinese can make it a world of vandals. Comming to india specific case during 71 USA did send its AC to prevent further indian action and we are still languishing with that pain. People often should and suggest we should learn from china but are we really. Look at them. Russia probably has caused more direct deaths to chiinese forces that what US did to India ( there has been none). They fought serious battles causing hundreds of chinese soldiers biting dust. There was a time when Russia sent a direct threat to pulverize china with massive nuke strike & guess who saved china ? again it was US counter threat of a similar type to russia. I think in the absence of US world would have seen far more blood and vandalism. I am no pro us campaigner , for that matter i just dont care about any other nation but India.I think till now USA has shown us a great and best way to become & stay super power for a long time in all spheres with real little military force. People will certainly raise the case of iraq but then an explation to that will be beyond the scope and motivation of this writing but what we see happening at present in the next door did began with it. Yes they made many mistakes they were not perfect either and that's obvious. Time has come for us to learn the super power techniques and management skills from the best. Scope for improvements were always been there and will always be there as well.Dont think India as the undisputed super power will do anything better with current state of psychology. A nation where most of the politicians are corrupted,government employees are deeply into corruption is not expect to become pious over night as soon as it becomes super power. We need to learn & train our mind to think and act like a big power.Look for long term benefits rather than short term solutions.False nationalistic ego should be outright stripped off. when i was too young you pinched in my butt once so now i cannot shake hand with you as u might bite this time....come on learn from china , just do what they are doing to russia. USA is not in very good shape either, their economy is down. Indians dont challenge them from underwear to elephant like china.Yes some clashes have began to build up but that will be mostly at a higher end like IT out sourcing etc. There is huge amount of non critical technology that USA can provide us which can do wonder for our economic front. Apart from a nuke testing there is no other possible scenario where US can put sanctions on India and if the very war can be kept at bay with economic & diplomatic maneuvers with the backing of USA there is absolutely no need to conduct one untill India stands on her own feet. If we work hard it should not take more than 2 dacades. Talk less, make less rhetoric, be assertive when ever needed and be focused & handle USA with care will take us where we want to be. Pakistan is one issue that can spoil indo us relationship as well and may even trigger nuclear over hang.To fizzle out pakistan all we do is to make sure no terror attack must take place in the scale of 26/11 or parliament attack for another 10 years at least and let them die their natural death smothered by their own moves.
Conclusion: From both technological and diplomatic ground F 18 Sh seems to be the best choice for indians at this moment. Yes we do loose some space to maneuver but it dose provide us with the vital X factor to our over all security. JAI HIND