Fact 1
IAF CAS has said 35 SQNs by 2035 is their estimation, so we will use this number
Fact 2
In the last few weeks the CAS has said they do NOT want the additional 36 Rafales and are only interested in 114 MRFA
IAF chief Air Chief Marshal V.R. Chaudhari also said first unit of S-400 air defence system would be delivered this year but it doesn’t mean force can cut down on fighter requirement.
theprint.in
Fact 3 in 3 out of 4 statements made in public about future IAF force plans the CAS has omitted the LCA MK.2 entirely but in 100% of the occasions he has mentioned 114 MRFA
Our own views on the affordability or fantasy nature of these plans is immaterial, the IAF is the agency that makes the plans and places the orders so saying things like "they have no choice but to order MK.2" is nonsense- the IAF are the ones that need to make that call.
2035 force:
6 LCA Mk.1/1A
15 SU-30MKI (the new CAS mentioned the additional batch of 12 MKIs so they will be back to full 15 SQN)
8 Rafale/MRFA (this is part of the IAF's planning like it or not)
2 AMCA (conceivable by 2035)
4 Mirage 2000 UPG/MiG-29UPG/Jaguar Darin 3 (these upgrades of over 100 jets are ongoing today and aim to extend their life span 10-15 years so will still be on the scene easily come 2035)
Again, given the 35 SQN target/projection where is there the space for the LCA MK.2?
Subtly a LCA MK.2 vs MRFA battle was being fought in the last few years and the LCA MK.2 has blatantly lost it. We should've known that when the IAF insisted that ADA revert to LCA MK.2 designation after MWF was used for a while. MWF was seen as a threat to the MRFA.
MK1A, MRFA, AMCA mentioned, not able to meet 42 SQNs= all points to MK.2 being dead.