Know Your 'Rafale'

[MirageBlue]

x.com

x.com

 

[MirageBlue]

same news from IDRW .....

India-France negotiations for Rs 50k-cr 26 navy Rafales to start next week – Indian Defence Research Wing

idrw.org

They just got it from ANI, which is a reputed news source.

 

[MirageBlue]

It's the sole source find so far. The rest are leaks from Dassault members....
But there are some thrustable datas in this news, as the number of Rafale made and the objective (13 against 15). So if this part is true, why not the rest?

The part about how many Rafales Dassault has made is open news. Just because they mentioned that in the article doesn't mean the rest of the stuff is authentic.

I read a report recently that talks about how Dassault is targeting to increase their production rate to 3 fighters per month to deal with their huge backlog and to not lose any orders because customers won't be willing to wait so many years to get their Rafales.

 

[BON PLAN]

I read a report recently that talks about how Dassault is targeting to increase their production rate to 3 fighters per month to deal with their huge backlog and to not lose any orders because customers won't be willing to wait so many years to get their Rafales.

The son of a friend of mine is working in the purchase office of Dassault :
Dassault checked its suppliers for at least 3 years to see if it is possible and how to increase the assembly rate of Rafale. It is difficult. It's now not a purchase price problem, but a aupplier capacity one.
And indeed the rate is now targeted to 3 per month, with 0,5 more for spare parts.

A french newspaper, worldwide known (Le Monde), said 1 month ago a 3/month rate at the end of this year (instead of 2), and 4/month in 2025. A so short lead time seems very very optimistic.

Rafale : « Comme tout industriel aiguillonné par l’envolée des budgets militaires, Dassault Aviation monte en cadence »

CHRONIQUE. Le groupe a annoncé qu’il pourrait sortir chaque mois de son usine girondine de Mérignac trois exemplaires du Rafale à la fin de 2024, et monter à quatre en 2025. Le gouvernement aimerait rééditer avec d’autres matériels le succès de l’avion de combat multirôle, qui pèse lourd dans...

www.lemonde.fr

.

 

[MirageBlue]

The son of a friend of mine is working in the purchase office of Dassault :
Dassault checked its suppliers for at least 3 years to see if it is possible and how to increase the assembly rate of Rafale. It is difficult. It's now not a purchase price problem, but a aupplier capacity one.
And indeed the rate is now targeted to 3 per month, with 0,5 more for spare parts.

A french newspaper, worldwide known (Le Monde), said 1 month ago a 3/month rate at the end of this year (instead of 2), and 4/month in 2025. A so short lead time seems very very optimistic.

Rafale : « Comme tout industriel aiguillonné par l’envolée des budgets militaires, Dassault Aviation monte en cadence »

CHRONIQUE. Le groupe a annoncé qu’il pourrait sortir chaque mois de son usine girondine de Mérignac trois exemplaires du Rafale à la fin de 2024, et monter à quatre en 2025. Le gouvernement aimerait rééditer avec d’autres matériels le succès de l’avion de combat multirôle, qui pèse lourd dans...

www.lemonde.fr

.

View attachment 255241

But this presents a problem even for the possibility of setting up an assembly line in India.

Those same suppliers to the Merignac assembly line, would be the suppliers to the Nagpur assembly line, won't they? I doubt Dassault could find new suppliers in India to replace all the French ones that currently supply to them in France.

So, if the small/medium scale suppliers to Dassault are finding it hard to step up to 3 Rafales per month, they'd find it even harder to step up their production to support the 5-6 per month that would be needed if an assembly line in India uses parts from Dassault's French suppliers.

Even if Dassault tried to, it would take time to evaluate the suppliers in India (companies that supply to Tejas for e.g.), they would need to be certified, quality control thoroughly done since Dassault would take bottom-line responsibility, and then only would their parts be used on a Rafale.

It is not an easy problem to solve, but if the IN is to get it's 26 Rafales in a normal 36 month timeframe, it has to be solved.

Right now, it is looking rather difficult for the IN to get it's 22 Rafale M and 4 Rafale Ds without some major step by Dassault. The backlog is massive (nearly 200+ Rafales) and Saudi Arabia as well as Serbia are in talks with Dassault as well. By the time our MoD and IN folks negotiate a deal, it would likely be another year at least, by which time if any other customer signs up, they are ahead in the line.

Assume even that the contract is signed by the end of 2024 and 36 Rafales produced per year and no more orders from any other customer, and we're talking of waiting 6+ years for the IN to get it's first Rafale D/M. That's double the wait time for any other fighter.

 

[BON PLAN]

But this presents a problem even for the possibility of setting up an assembly line in India.

Those same suppliers to the Merignac assembly line, would be the suppliers to the Nagpur assembly line, won't they? I doubt Dassault could find new suppliers in India to replace all the French ones that currently supply to them in France.

So, if the small/medium scale suppliers to Dassault are finding it hard to step up to 3 Rafales per month, they'd find it even harder to step up their production to support the 5-6 per month that would be needed if an assembly line in India uses parts from Dassault's French suppliers.

Even if Dassault tried to, it would take time to evaluate the suppliers in India (companies that supply to Tejas for e.g.), they would need to be certified, quality control thoroughly done since Dassault would take bottom-line responsibility, and then only would their parts be used on a Rafale.

It is not an easy problem to solve, but if the IN is to get it's 26 Rafales in a normal 36 month timeframe, it has to be solved.

Right now, it is looking rather difficult for the IN to get it's 22 Rafale M and 4 Rafale Ds without some major step by Dassault. The backlog is massive (nearly 200+ Rafales) and Saudi Arabia as well as Serbia are in talks with Dassault as well. By the time our MoD and IN folks negotiate a deal, it would likely be another year at least, by which time if any other customer signs up, they are ahead in the line.

Assume even that the contract is signed by the end of 2024 and 36 Rafales produced per year and no more orders from any other customer, and we're talking of waiting 6+ years for the IN to get it's first Rafale D/M. That's double the wait time for any other fighter.

I think the Indian govt not only need an assembly line, but also a wider range of parts built in India !

We can imagine thant some very sensible or hard to produce components directly shipped from France to India (ex : M88 single cristal blades ? Some component of the Radar and Spectra? The forging pieces of the under carriage ?) but all the other to be made in India, for the assembly line but also for the remaining 50 years life spare parts.

For MMRCA 1, Dassault made a huge assesment of the Indian industrial potential contractors. This job wasn't made in vain....

***
Rafale M : It's not impossible than the french Navy will have to give some of it's own jet as a stop gap... (as made by french air force for Greece and Croatia).
and the normal 36 month lead time is for the delivery of a first jet, not for the whole order !

***
Saudi Arabia : it's all but not made !

 

[MirageBlue]

I think the Indian govt not only need an assembly line, but also a wider range of parts built in India !

We can imagine thant some very sensible or hard to produce components directly shipped from France to India (ex : M88 single cristal blades ? Some component of the Radar and Spectra? The forging pieces of the under carriage ?) but all the other to be made in India, for the assembly line but also for the remaining 50 years life spare parts.

For MMRCA 1, Dassault made a huge assesment of the Indian industrial potential contractors. This job wasn't made in vain....

***
Rafale M : It's not impossible than the french Navy will have to give some of it's own jet as a stop gap... (as made by french air force for Greece and Croatia).
and the normal 36 month lead time is for the delivery of a first jet, not for the whole order !

***
Saudi Arabia : it's all but not made !

Remember that the French Navy's Rafale M fighters are the oldest Rafales out there. They were at F1 standard before being upgraded to F3 standard.

Many of them would've already used up a significant part of their airframe lives, given how tough it is to operate off carriers and with the corrosive marine environment.

But yes, it is one option to allow the IN to start Rafale M operations with 6-8 leased Rafale Ms and then to start getting their new build Rafale Ms as soon as they can get a slot in the delivery line.

But given what's happening in our neighborhood, I am still hoping to see a truncated MRFA clubbed with the IN requirement for a total of 100 Rafales to be built in India. But I have very low hopes of that happening.

 

[BON PLAN]

Remember that the French Navy's Rafale M fighters are the oldest Rafales out there. They were at F1 standard before being upgraded to F3 standard.

Many of them would've already used up a significant part of their airframe lives, given how tough it is to operate off carriers and with the corrosive marine environment.

But yes, it is one option to allow the IN to start Rafale M operations with 6-8 leased Rafale Ms and then to start getting their new build Rafale Ms as soon as they can get a slot in the delivery line.

But given what's happening in our neighborhood, I am still hoping to see a truncated MRFA clubbed with the IN requirement for a total of 100 Rafales to be built in India. But I have very low hopes of that happening.

I agree with you.
I think we, the french Navy, will have to order some more for 3 reasons :
- Our Rafale M are the oldest and probably the most tired (small fleet, carrier stress usage).
- As the oldest Rafale, they can be "easily" upgrade to F4.1, but not more. What about F5 for Navy?
- SCAF will be late, and the first ones will not have all the capacity intended (a kind of F1 std), so we need a stop gape plane for Navy and probably for french air force.

So it is likely to see some M going to India, as made with C & B for Greece and Serbia, to help.

 

[MirageBlue]

I agree with you.
I think we, the french Navy, will have to order some more for 3 reasons :
- Our Rafale M are the oldest and probably the most tired (small fleet, carrier stress usage).
- As the oldest Rafale, they can be "easily" upgrade to F4.1, but not more. What about F5 for Navy?
- SCAF will be late, and the first ones will not have all the capacity intended (a kind of F1 std), so we need a stop gape plane for Navy and probably for french air force.

So it is likely to see some M going to India, as made with C & B for Greece and Serbia, to help.

If such older Rafale Ms are indeed transferred to the IN, they'll most likely be on lease. Since the IN will want new build Rafale Ms only.

There is precedent for that in India. When Jaguars were bought, the initial batch for the IAF were RAF Jaguars that were leased. They were brought in to help speed up the entry into service and train pilots. Once the first knocked-down kits started to be assembled at HAL and began deliveries to the IAF, the leased Jaguars were returned to the RAF (minus the one that crashed).

But it is interesting that the French Aeronavale may also be looking for a new buy of Rafale M jets in the future. If it happens and they do place an order before India, we may even see a swap of delivery slots between the IN and Aeronavale. But of course, that's assuming the French place that order for Rafale Ms this year.

There is one hiccup now- the election results have not given a majority to the BJP party of PM Modi. That means a coalition is going to be in place and that may mean more money spent on infrastructure development and on wooing the voters.

Last night PM Modi talked about how indigenous defence programs will be boosted to make India self reliant. MRFA may take a further back seat with that happening.

 

[BON PLAN]

If such older Rafale Ms are indeed transferred to the IN, they'll most likely be on lease. Since the IN will want new build Rafale Ms only.

There is precedent for that in India. When Jaguars were bought, the initial batch for the IAF were RAF Jaguars that were leased. They were brought in to help speed up the entry into service and train pilots. Once the first knocked-down kits started to be assembled at HAL and began deliveries to the IAF, the leased Jaguars were returned to the RAF (minus the one that crashed).

But it is interesting that the French Aeronavale may also be looking for a new buy of Rafale M jets in the future. If it happens and they do place an order before India, we may even see a swap of delivery slots between the IN and Aeronavale. But of course, that's assuming the French place that order for Rafale Ms this year.

There is one hiccup now- the election results have not given a majority to the BJP party of PM Modi. That means a coalition is going to be in place and that may mean more money spent on infrastructure development and on wooing the voters.

Last night PM Modi talked about how indigenous defence programs will be boosted to make India self reliant. MRFA may take a further back seat with that happening.

No Rafale M order on the agenda for France. It's too early. But as SCAF will be postponed, and its cost rise, a last order may well take place.
It's also possible that the M variant of SCAF be scrapped, before too few numbers, and inducing too many difficulty on the legacy air model (assuming that Germany and Spain are not interessed in a carrier variant) so the backbone of the navy will remain 100% Rafale M F5/F6.... so new birds.
But nothing in this decade.