- Dec 24, 2015
My opinion, for months, is tha Rafale will win in Switzerland, and SH18 will win in Finland.For Dassault it's the kind of headache they would be thrilled to have..too many orders and having to scale up production to meet the need. The 30 unit Egyptian order, following the 6 new Rafale Greek order and the replacement 12 unit order from the French AF means the order backlog is healthy at 48 Rafales after the Indian Rafales are all built. About Finland and Switzerland, I won't under-estimate the power of US diplomacy swinging those deals in their favor.
Dassault has already built 29 Rafales for India. Only 7 are yet to be flown.
But given the Covid-19 crisis in India, I doubt there will be any new orders this year. The NDA govt's image has taken a beating with the second wave and all defence procurements will likely take a back seat over spending on healthcare and infra.
The backlog orders for Rafale is approx :
28 remaining of the last inked tranche for french air force (delivery to resume in 2023, for a total of 180)
12 to replace the 12 selled in 2nd hand to Greece
6 new to Greece (and maybe 6 more very very soon)
The remaining for India & Qatar.
These 30 new for Egypt,
Another 30 for France (and maybe 15+ more after.... for some reasons, including the late SCAF)
Indonesia ? 48?
Croatia ? 12?
Switzerland ? Finland ? (for me just Switzerland for nearly 32 -36 jets )
Another batch for India (the real question is : just another 36 or 114 ? or far more ?)
And after that I see Morocco (to counter balance Su-30 of Algeria and not to rely only on USA)
Another batch for Greece