Know Your 'Rafale'

[p2prada]

The share of Rafale vs Eurofighter is evening out now. France is getting almost 300 and EF partners are only getting 400 something. That is one nation vs four. Global share seems to be exceeding total EF sales of about 500. Rafale in France and India will equal the same. UAE gives it the advantage and there are plenty more open tenders to win. Going it alone is turning out to be the right decision. The future sales of F-35 are anything but certain. Half the partners are looking at alternatives if the costs don't drop. The US is even considering dropping a variant.

I have not tabulated this myself but can you post a list of countries buying EF currently with the reduced orders. Thanks in advance.

If SFC and Navy deals go to Rafale, then there is no doubt Rafale will become more successful. There is a possibility the India win may possibly mean a win in Brazil and UAE too because France can be more flexible in price now. This would mean a potential order of 283 for France, 312+(200+72+40) for India, 120 for Brazil and 60 for UAE bringing it to a grand total of 775 or ~800 aircraft.

Such a big order will reduce the prize by a large extent benefiting all the countries involved and potential competition against the F-35 for smaller countries with a single squadron requirement.

 

[Armand2REP]

The Swiss Bundesrat (=government) chose the Gripen, and it will stay with it. They decided it on 30.11.2011. Rafale and EF lost, that Dassault is wanting to sell does not change any facts and next elections are far away. Contract hasn't been made yet, but it is the same with India.
Brazil is not gonna buy 100 aircraft, but less. They also said that Gripen is ahead to other contenders.

The Suisse National Council has opened an investigation on Gripen's "irregularities." Dassault then threw out a lower bid than Gripen as that is the reason for its selection. Suisse prosecutors are still miffed over the quashing of the Czech Gripen bribery so they want blood. It is far from over there, not even comparable to clean selection of Rafale in India.

Brasil will buy up to 100 FX fighters, 36 is not enough for such a rising power. Rafale already won it but was cancelled due to funding for natural disasters. Dilma is said to favour F18s, but US has not had good relations with Brasil so it is not likely. They still want the high ToT offer, the same as India.

 

[p2prada]

TBH, it was that B variant of JSF that screwed up the entire program. Less payload, shortest wings of all 3 models, limited range and fuel etc are some reasons that screwed up the funding and timeframe. Their carrier variant, the C model has a god wingspan that would generate better lift than A or B. That should have been standard dimensions.

I think Rafale should market itself more aggressively to countries like Netherlands, Australia and Norway. While Norwegians might slip for a Gripen-NG or something, other two offer good potential to France as partners.

500 units from both you and us in total won't just cut it.

The B variant is meant to replace the Marine A-10 and Sea Harriers. The replacement aircraft is superior to both these aircraft. I am not sure if the B will do better than A-10 in CAS, but it will be efficient.

Australia won't buy a 4.5th gen aircraft. Their requirement is for a 5th gen. Only F-35 fits the bill. It is the same with Korea. But it may not be such a big problem to opt for Rafale if the requirement is small or is a Middle East country. A Brazil deal will be a major boost to any competing aircraft. Requirements will obviously play a key role here.

 

[p2prada]

i tried few, as such nothing concrete.. everything is assumption. here are the few

India's M-MRCA Fighter Competition: Rafale Contract Works

An Indian Express report even adds that:
"...government sources told Reuters about the $15 billion deal that France's Rafale jet was the likely winner, adding that the defence ministry was now considering buying another 80 or so jets and could invite bidders excluded from the current process to take part."

http://www.defencenews.in/defence-news-internal.asp?
get=new&id=1005
The defence ministry was now considering buying another 80 or so jets and could invite bidders excluded from the current process to take part.

:bs:

Don't worry about it. Bad reporting.

The Swiss Bundesrat (=government) chose the Gripen, and it will stay with it. They decided it on 30.11.2011. Rafale and EF lost, that Dassault is wanting to sell does not change any facts and next elections are far away. Contract hasn't been made yet, but it is the same with India.
Brazil is not gonna buy 100 aircraft, but less. They also said that Gripen is ahead to other contenders.

The Brazilian requirement is 36 aircraft with 4x options. That's over 120 aircraft to replace their existing aircraft. It may very well be a political deal and at the same time France is providing a lot of other goodies in the form of a package. This includes a Scorpene based SSN for indigenous development apart from 4 other SSKs.

Brazil to Buy 36 Rafales As France Extends Security Partnership

When added to contracts for the licence-production of 50 Eurocopter EC-725 helicopters (1.85 billion euros), of four Scorpene diesel-electric submarines, of a nuclear-powered attack submarine (4.9 billion euros) and of related infrastructure projects, the Rafale deal boosts the value of French weapons ordered by Brazil to over 12 billion euros (approx. $17.1 billion).

There may be more added benefits like access to satellites and stuff they offered to the Swiss. The Brazilian deal will end up as a political decision anyway. If they are worried about costs, I guess Gripen will be the aircraft to go for. But you never know; like how the deal happened in India. Pick two of the most expensive from the lot and go for the cheaper of the two.

 

[Armand2REP]

I have not tabulated this myself but can you post a list of countries buying EF currently with the reduced orders. Thanks in advance.

UK = 107
Germany = 140
Italy = 96
Spain = 73
SKA = 24 + 48 not secured
Austria = 15

If SFC and Navy deals go to Rafale, then there is no doubt Rafale will become more successful. There is a possibility the India win may possibly mean a win in Brazil and UAE too because France can be more flexible in price now. This would mean a potential order of 283 for France, 312+(200+72+40) for India, 120 for Brazil and 60 for UAE bringing it to a grand total of 775 or ~800 aircraft.

France will order 294 Rafale. It is likely Rafale would win the INs tender as well as Brasil if they are serious about a carrier. I do not know why India needs a separate tender for nuclear penetration. Just add 40 Rafale. Qatar will most definitively buy 24 Rafale, this is fact considering the relations. Kuwait wants to be compatible with UAE and Qatar so when UAE buys, Kuwait orders 36. Kuwait assembly keeps arguing about it not being exported... they just lost their main argument. Yeah, so if Rafale M wins carrier tenders, we will see orders explode.

Such a big order will reduce the prize by a large extent benefiting all the countries involved and potential competition against the F-35 for smaller countries with a single squadron requirement.

Rafale is even being considered to replace UK F-35s... the opportunities are endless when you also have a Marine version.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

The Pig running the cheap tabloid called SUN has practically driven a crusade against India. Does that dip shit paper even care to say India is the 2nd largest investor in the UK?? What about all those jobs we saved for Britian?

 

[bengalraider]

@LF- That dear friend was our MoD playing hardball in order to get better prices(also maybe a lil french holiday for some top guys) but definetly for a better deal.

 

[methos]

The Suisse National Council has opened an investigation on Gripen's "irregularities." Dassault then threw out a lower bid than Gripen as that is the reason for its selection. Suisse prosecutors are still miffed over the quashing of the Czech Gripen bribery so they want blood. It is far from over there, not even comparable to clean selection of Rafale in India.

Brasil will buy up to 100 FX fighters, 36 is not enough for such a rising power. Rafale already won it but was cancelled due to funding for natural disasters. Dilma is said to favour F18s, but US has not had good relations with Brasil so it is not likely. They still want the high ToT offer, the same as India.

Switzerland will not end up with the Rafale. Read some Swiss articles. The Rafale is more expensive, for Switzerland (small number, no licence production) even the EF was considered to be cheaper. Dassault just did some shady tricks by inoffically offering the Rafale later with different settings (like licence production of 15 aircraft). Dassault has a large lobby in Switzerland, but this will not affect the deal. In the end Dassault has been desperate: they have only sold aircrafts to the French Airforce and Navy at this time and needed a new deal. Now India has chosen the Rafale and Dassault cares a shit about the Swiss. The only Swiss party against the Gripen are the left, because they are in the opposition. With the minority in pairlament they probably won't finish their referendum; even if they would do the Rafale would then stand against the EF again; and Switzerland is not looking for a enhanced A2G capabilites, but for airspace control.
The inoffical deal wanted by Dassault also does not fit really in the Swiss situation: they offered their Rafales cheaper, but only less.

Brazil did some defense budget cuts in the near past, so 100 seems to be very unlikely. They favour the Gripen and the F-18, Rafale is not even second place.

 

[Neil]

dassult share price...:: armand hope u super rich by now...!!

 

[Armand2REP]

dassult share price...:: armand hope u super rich by now...!!

I only own 10 shares of it. So I made what, 1000 bucks?

 

[Armand2REP]

I dumped most of it into Thales, and I am still losing money on that.

 

[nrj]

Years ago they refused to sell us anything. Today they are crying because we are not buying from them.

 

[KS]

is there anyway to pacify the Europeans with deals other than MMRCA ?

like refueller, artillery, passenger aircrafts like we ordered around 15 billion $ from USA

btw when will India announce RFP for the next 80.. current deal itself will take 1 year..

Why is there a need to pacify the Europeans ? Its our money and we buy what we need.We don't but to pacify anybody.

In any case EADS controls 46% in Dassault and they are not exactly losing much.

 

[weg]

The Pig running the cheap tabloid called SUN has practically driven a crusade against India. Does that dip shit paper even care to say India is the 2nd largest investor in the UK?? What about all those jobs we saved for Britian?

Rupert Murdoch?

Probably one of the most hated people in Britain. He's an Australian/Yank.

 

[KS]

Btwn .. US is sending a few peace pigeons to neighborhood.

Block 52+ F-16 serial no. #10801 and MLU F-16 #84731 en route to Pakistan.

Tell that JayAtl to get Jay Ho.

Loosers

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Rupert Murdoch?

Probably one of the most hated people in Britain. He's an Australian/Yank.

Please don't call that old fossil an American.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

Years ago they refused to sell us anything. Today they are crying because we are not buying from them.

Is the word Irony the right thing to use here? LMAO... Your so right.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

Rupert Murdoch?

Probably one of the most hated people in Britain. He's an Australian/Yank.

Well Murdoch hardly can keep tabs on what is happening in all his companies, while he is busying trying to get a ---edited---- to --edited-- that ---edited--- he calls his wife, he owns a lot here in india to but its the british tabloid culture that is obnoxious. It goes with the nauseating levels of jingoism Britian is so famous for not even the yanks match up with that level of Jingo pride.

 

[pankaj nema]

Indeed How Times change

The British REMOVED the Electronic Counter Measures FROM the JAGUARS when we
first bought them in 1981 as we were in the Soviet camp

The Jaguar , Mirage 2000 and Mig 23 were immediately bought as soon as the US had
announced the sale of the FEARSOME F 16

 

[p2prada]

UK = 107
Germany = 140
Italy = 96
Spain = 73
SKA = 24 + 48 not secured
Austria = 15

I guess SKA's first 72 orders will still go through, regardless of issues. The follow on option will face problems because of their F-15 buy.

France will order 294 Rafale. It is likely Rafale would win the INs tender as well as Brasil if they are serious about a carrier. I do not know why India needs a separate tender for nuclear penetration. Just add 40 Rafale. Qatar will most definitively buy 24 Rafale, this is fact considering the relations. Kuwait wants to be compatible with UAE and Qatar so when UAE buys, Kuwait orders 36. Kuwait assembly keeps arguing about it not being exported... they just lost their main argument. Yeah, so if Rafale M wins carrier tenders, we will see orders explode.

French orders will obviously get a boost. The ALA ACM must be the happiest man right now, outside of Dassault.

The IN has vocally supported Rafale. If the IN tender turns out to be political or favouring the cheaper aircraft with high levels of ToT, Rafale has already won. Sea Gripen and Sea Typhoon aren't capable contenders, especially the Typhoon because of costs. Super Hornet, IN won't touch em. They will probably be made to take part just to provide competition. Only F-35 may end up being in the way of a Rafale victory. Rafale for the Navy may end up being cheaper than the IAF version because of already secured large orders.

I guess Kuwait is only being careful. But you never know what the Middle East ends up doing. Heck they may all end up buying the F-35. Other than Qatar and UAE there is also Oman.

Rafale is even being considered to replace UK F-35s... the opportunities are endless when you also have a Marine version.

With all that mud slinging going on over Rafale's victory in the MRCA deal in the UK, there is no way in hell any UK govt will buy the Rafale now. RN will cry about it and still end up being a F-35 customer. Nobody, anywhere cried about EF's defeat in Japan. But they are quite angry over a French victory in India. Quite touchy, these EF guys. It would be the same with any country belonging to the EF consortium. Rafale is an untouchable now.

Forget the Middle East, there are other countries that require aircraft. Korea is there, but they may be a bunch of F-35 buyers as well. Vietnam and Philippines are available as clients. Indonesia may buy Russian or go for the Japan 5th gen JV, but may have room for the Rafale. So, that's Asia.

Libya with it's oil deposits may either buy the used Mirages or new Rafales, a good choice to have. I don't think there is any other African country interested in a new jet.

Australia, Rafale will only take part in a losing battle, no point.

Argentina is a possible buyer if the political situation is favourable. A few other countries like Peru and Chile may help.

Forget the Swiss. Every country follows procedure. Gripen beat all other aircraft in the deal and Rafale has a chance only if the deal is re-tendered. I think all other European countries may go for the F-35 save for Greece and Serbia. Greece's economy may improve over time and they may need a replacement aircraft for their F-16s and Mirage-2000s. Turkey is buying the F-35, so Greece will follow with new aircraft. There is Serbia with their squadron deal, but they will simply choose the second cheapest bird after the JF-17.

Most other countries like Venezuela and Poland are either in the Russian camp or the American camp. So, no point trying to pull them apart. The best bet is to get a proper contract done for the UAE deal. The Indian deal victory obviously helps reduce the cost big time. Pull in Brazil and Qatar after that and hope Kuwait joins in. I would say the Indian MRCA victory will help bag these countries easily as compared to before. 31st, Jan 2012 is definitely a very memorable day for Dassault and France.