Know Your 'Rafale'

[SajeevJino]

I read somewhere that our defence minister Mr.Parrikar has scraped rafale project??
Is it true?

weeks ago two country set Teams from each side to negotiate the Deal, no new updates after that ..!!

 

[Khagesh]

Forget 60/63, even 36 seems to be actually only 24 confirmed + 8 optional. This gels well with what Toilet rag had reported in Feb 2015 that a mini deal for 24 was to be signed and the reporter had added that it was about “testing waters…for a full-fledged tie-up”.

This was sought to be debunked by Bharat Karnad on his site - http://bharatkarnad.com/2015/02/25/24-rafales-seriously/

But since I heard 8 Billion USD for just 36, I am confident we are going to see only 2/3 smaller strenght squads of minimal 16 aircrafts and some trainers.

With the upgrades of Mig 29 and M2K and now the more likelier upgrade of Jaguar we may not need more Rafales. Bharat Karnad seems to be in favour of Sukhois but I don't think we are going to buy more Sukhois either, except only to tide over mite-bites - same like Rafale. The focus would likely shift laser like to LCAs.

 

[Armand2REP]

Forget 60/63, even 36 seems to be actually only 24 confirmed + 8 optional. This gels well with what Toilet rag had reported in Feb 2015 that a mini deal for 24 was to be signed and the reporter had added that it was about “testing waters…for a full-fledged tie-up”.

This was sought to be debunked by Bharat Karnad on his site - http://bharatkarnad.com/2015/02/25/24-rafales-seriously/

But since I heard 8 Billion USD for just 36, I am confident we are going to see only 2/3 smaller strenght squads of minimal 16 aircrafts and some trainers.

With the upgrades of Mig 29 and M2K and now the more likelier upgrade of Jaguar we may not need more Rafales. Bharat Karnad seems to be in favour of Sukhois but I don't think we are going to buy more Sukhois either, except only to tide over mite-bites - same like Rafale. The focus would likely shift laser like to LCAs.

Are you serious? The article is clearly flawed confusing the Egyptian deal in February to a deal with India that hadn't happened yet. The deal in negotiation now is 36 + 27. Expect the full option to be carried out. What is left is a decision for another government.

 

[sob]

36 is not the final figure. As per the thinking of the present Govt. they are going to look at the LCA development and also how soon the engine problems of SU 30 are sorted out.

The additional numbers of Rafael will be announced , if, in the net financial year. The negotiations will be for 36+++ figures.

 

[Khagesh]

Are you serious? The article is clearly flawed confusing the Egyptian deal in February to a deal with India that hadn't happened yet. The deal in negotiation now is 36 + 27. Expect the full option to be carried out. What is left is a decision for another government.

I am serious.

Here are a few datapoints that will help see why I claim so.

1) The press communique in Paris during Modi visit mentioned nothing about confirmed/optional order. French DM has recently met the Indian DM and Indian NSA and negotiations are to start in May 2015.

2) Both Dassault and Parrikar have hinted that both are open to all ideas.

3) Dassault has stated that they stand by their MMRCA price quotes http://www.business-standard.com/article/printer-friendly-version?article_id=115021900262_1 and that the discount is ~25% in the G-2-G buys. There seems to be an attitude problem.

4) Dassault 'sources' have additionally hinted that they are looking for an India partner. http://www.business-standard.com/article/printer-friendly-version?article_id=115050300307_1

5) Modi had offered to Indian industry ~10-12 billion USD for making LCA. Parrikar has claimed that India will save INR 60K-65K by the new format. Both figures under current exchange rate reconcile well. To evince interest from the Indian industry the GoI will be bound to show them the money and the gravy-train.

6) HAL's part will be over after the Mk-1 itself. They will need further orders too. That can only happen for LCA Mk-2. Both Mk-1 and Mk-2 are essentially same manufacturing philosophy. The parts will differ by 75% but the manufacturing are still dominated by CFC which is unlike anything India is procuring from abroad. So Mk-1 lines & Mk-2 lines will be one and the same. They may, actually expand. The lines will be of 'bespoke-built' type but fungible. Since the money in HAL line is sunk money so it simply cannot happen that they do not get further orders for Mk-2.

7) If we are to make LCAs Mk-1 & Mk-2 and yet replace all the smaller sized aircrafts that need replacement then we must hit 50 jets a year production at the peak. This kind of production cannot be supported by Dassault French facility. For now all the 3 orders (totalling ~84) Dassault has are on the fast track.

8) Production capacity is said to be ~11 p.a. tops and actual production today is said to be 1 p.a.

9) GoI had sounded out all the 3 programs currently underway (FGFA, LCA, Rafale) for faster inductions. Which is a genuine need today.

10) Parrikar has already claimed that while, Su-30MKI, Rafale and LCA constitute 3 different classes (can be taken to mean that a heavier class can replace a lighter class but not the other way round), Su-30MKI actually is "adequate".

Now how can the dots be connected. You decide.

I personally would like to see the deal contours to be as follows:
1) ~60 units for 3 squads. Some of 2 seat version within this.
2) ~120 mil USD per piece bare aircraft fly away cost. Some 'n' additional cost for the weapons and maintenance. Then some 'm' additional cost of off-sets. Probably taking the whole deal to around 220 mil USD per piece or around 8 bil USD for 36 aircrafts and ~13 bil USD for full ~60.
3) Weapons to be made under the offsets clause in India for something like Meteor / Maitri / X since even the present G-2-G deal has a set off but since this is G-2-G, I would expect even the set-offs to be G-2-G only and so other french firms too should get counted in.

I understand that Dassault would wants to get get cued into the Indian MIC. That can only happen at our options and not at french options. You would be crazy if you think anybody can corner Modi. Modi can simply ask Putin to increase the licence size for Sukhois and AL-31FPs and begin negotiating for upgrades beyond the Super Sukhoi 30. Modi cannot be cornered, not on this deal. Probably not even on others.

 

[Armand2REP]

That is too many dots for me to try to connect when the answer has already been given. It isn't a secret, nor is it a conspiracy theory...

 

[akshay m]

this is Ajjai Shukla's article, but it has some direct quotes from Parriker
make out what you can of the direct quotes

i havn't seen other articles on this yet

but remeber the article in ET saying 200 tejas, but if HAL cannot get its act together...............

Parrikar declares money saved on Rafale will buy Tejas fighters to replace MiG-21s

Separately, Parrikar stated clearly for the first time that the 36 Rafale fighters that Prime Minister Narendra Modi requested the French government for during his visit to Paris last month would not be followed by more Rafales. Instead, the money saved by curtailing the Rafale contract would be used to buy large numbers of the indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA).

“By buying 36 Rafale fighters at a price less than (what was quoted in response to) the earlier tender for 126 aircraft, I have saved the cost of 90 Rafales. We will use that money to buy Tejas LCAs”, said Parrikar.

This will address the concerns of aerospace experts, who had questioned the plan to buy 126 Rafales (six squadrons) to take the place of MiG-21 squadrons retiring from service this decade. It has been argued that the Rafale is too heavy, expensive and capable to replace a cheap, light, utility fighter like the MiG-21.

“The Rafale is not meant to replace the MiG-21”, said Parrikar, stating that he would instead buy large numbers of Tejas fighters, which he said would come cheap at a price of around Rs 150 crore each.

The Indian Air Force (IAF), which currently has 34 fighter squadrons against an assessed requirement of 42 squadrons, will lose during this decade another 7-9 squadrons of MiG-21s and MiG-27s that have already exceeded their service lives.

Yet, the IAF has ordered o just 20 Tejas fighters (one squadron) from Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), with an additional order of 20 more promised after the fighter achieves final operational clearance, expected in early 2016.

Asked whether he was satisfied with the Tejas’ performance, the defence minister replied he was “satisfied to a certain level”. The IAF had accorded performance waivers while giving initial operational clearance to the Tejas, but Parrikar pointed out that none of the waivers affected flight safety.

 

[sob]

We have to realise that this fiscal money is very tight. Hence the decision to go in for 36 Rafaels. It serves two purposes, one it plugs in the most urgent requirement of the IAF and secondly it keeps the option open for more purchases if required in the next fiscal.

The other alternative would have been to procastinate on this issue like the previous Government has done.
Read this article on the Defence Minister and you will get an idea about the working style,

http://swarajyamag.com/politics/can-manohar-parrikar-be-another-yb-chavan/

Antony’s ‘lost decade’ has left gaping holes in India’s defence preparedness.
So how did Parrikar plan to reenergise the MoD and speed up acquisitions?

Prioritisation of projects was the first step. Defence acquisitions are expensive and since five years very little was purchased, the backlog just adds to the problem. After a month or so spent in learning the ropes, and another three in reviewing different projects, Parrikar found that the bureaucracy in the ministry — both civil and military — was sitting on some 400-odd big and small projects that were critical to the three armed forces. A thorough review revealed that nearly one-third of the 400-odd projects were now irrelevant. So they were discarded. About 50 projects were accelerated since they were of critical importance.

Next, Parrikar and his closest aides identified critical schemes across the three services that needed immediate funding and implementation. The purchase of 50,000 bullet proof jackets, for instance, was sanctioned on a fast track basis once it was realised that troops involved in counter-terrorism, counter-insurgency operations were facing a severe shortage. Similarly, a small bureaucratic standoff had held up supply of Extreme High Altitude Clothing (for soldiers posted in Siachen and similar terrain) for more than two years. Parrikar personally intervened and resolved the issue.

But his boldest decision so far was to break the logjam in the decade long saga for procurement of the Rafale combat jets from the French aviation giant Dassault. It is to Parrikar’s credit that he decided to think differently on a knotty issue and suggested a way out to the Prime Minister. So hours before Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on his three-nation tour in April, a political decision was taken to explore the option of buying Rafale jets through a government-to-government (G-to-G) contract with France.

 

[Pulkit]

HAHA Finally its official ...No MORE RAFALE

Speaking at the Aaj Tak Manthan conclave in New Delhi on Thursday, Parrikar said that India will not be placing any follow-up orders of more Rafale fighter after 36 aircrafts are inducted.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to Paris, last month requested the French government to supply 36 Rafale fighters in a G2G deal and French teams are already in India to draft final purchase agreement.

Parrikar Confirmed that Money saved on not purchasing more Rafale fighter jets will allow Government more funds which will be diverted to LCA Tejas Project.

” I have saved the cost of 90 Rafales and Now we can buy more Tejas “said Parrikar and also said MMRCA or Rafale was never meant to replace Mig-21s in IAF fleet, but it will be Cheaper and lighter Tejas fighter jets which will take its place .

When asked if he is satisfied with Performance of Tejas, Parrikar responded by saying he is satisfied up to a certain level and went on to add that Safety aspect of the aircraft is Excellent and he has no doubts about that .

http://idrw.org/36-rafale-is-final-number-to-be-purchased-parrikar/

 

[Compersion]

I guess message is also that in a large contract that would bring massive currency money into the seller industry it cannot be seen to be only about money (simply put). sure it is not the end of the story but defence minister has said we will not go above 36 and do more Tejas and we can take that to be premise up to now.

can one say is it that french have miscalculated. what would be the impression if the deal for rafael went through according to the terms the french wanted and also it is that was created (impression is there) from the tender. from the GOI perspective the value to the french was that since they would have had a huge footprint into the airforce if Rafael was 150+ that would have carry onto into other spheres. france would have rivaled russia and who knows in the future. the scorpian deal was there (and that was not really needed to be put into the context but it was and made GOI feel defensive but why). even russians have had a number of deals where they even point our mistakes but that does not mean russia has not had wonderful deals and ones which create proper impression and value. the main relative example ought to have been MIG21 and how Russia deal with that. Sure in the later stages there was news about France talking about SU30MKI and how the russians dealt with getting a fighter jet to be 200+ into the AF with much more to come. But the focus ought to have been Mig21 and how that became 200+ (i think the actual figures are much much more). this deal for Rafael was much more and similar to creating a massive military collaboration (can one say alliance) and it is unfair one can say that such talks were probably only being done after 2014 and properly by our administration and people. i also feel that saying Mig21 be replaced by Tejas only and not Rafael since the former is more like the Mig21 is wrong because Rafael can do the role of Mig21 (i am not saying we dont do Tejas - we have to it is important and critical for india). i feel from all the possibilities and net outcomes the french was the best decision and it was credit to whoever behind the scenes got it through by tricks and trades (was it sense that we would cross the bridge even though the road that led to bridge was dirty) . getting the best deal from the french is where we are now. if the french have accepted 36 to be final figure now that means it is in continuation of like before (probably the Americans have pinched the French a little here and probably want them to accept this). ** will the russians sense a opportunity and offer india even more to trump all.

i suppose the french have miscalculated before with the Israelis and looked at the arabs. the israelis afterwards had a more closer relationship with america and they transformed their military. and we see news even today of some distaste from the israelis against the french. but the relationship with france is still strong with india and i am not sure if this is finish with rafael and 36 ~ might be increased. also the french have a way of seeing things eventually and history is a bit## and most wonderful professor and not sure if that might surprise us and they come with a sweet deal that we cannot refuse. this would elevate the french and compound it into the country. (e.g. a simple example is how volkswagen was able to have their cars be the main taxi supplier in PRC). there is also amount of Mirages if that is the type of dealing and military relationship the french prefer but that was always there anyway and it is a major important facet of our relationship that we appreciate (when we talk about only 36 we have to say 86 that is 36 + about 50 upgraded new Mirages). and this is where the americans enter are playing it and i think there is much more meets the eyes. it would be good to have a relationship like israel does with america and the trinity of israel america india would be powerful.

really sometime feel if there was a sweet spot and this was managed differently the americans would have given us much more but we have the russians considerations. the Israelis and American example is a good one (france looked at arabs a bit too much). heck even the russians can dangle better terms now. the russians hang over the wall and rightly because of history and it was fascinating to see we announced on one single day American, European, Russia military deals which might make the people that sit on the sofas at home thinking what is our diet. (some might say what is our digestion system and the stuff we remove from our body). are we transforming are there mightier and strong winds occurring in the corridors of power. what a waste of opportunity and really sometime the last UPA administration especially 2009 afterwards gets on my nerves.

the best thing that has come from this is Tejas. but that needs American support (engine) at this moment. Again the French can be pointed at our helicopters (Dhruv) to see the opportunity cost (for France to deal with America on giving them a pass into India). we are basically telling the french if you have a issue with us getting more Rafael we will go with much more Tejas and that is the Americans who are probably sensing opportunity that we are there for the taking and making into a military relationship like Israel did with France and when they went with Arabs.

And this creates speculative (reaction) behavior from Russia who will obviously feel it. But this was not planned and I am sure the first preference was (and one can say is still) France. We can have a AF with 150+ Rafael and 150+ Tejas. Now we are saying we will go 500+ Tejas (both MK1 and MK2) i suppose. I would have really like us to have gone with a massive order 150+ make in india with Rafael and 150+ Tajas (that can be increased if we need) but the French see it from money making perspective only. Perhaps we will speak to Americans that if they dont want us to deal France and really want more Tajas that contract for GE Engine is for FULL TOT (ratio decidendi).

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...ig-ticket-defence-deals/article1-1346959.aspx

"The defence acquisition council (DAC) on Wednesday cleared a slew of proposals including the lone bid of Airbus-Tata consortium to replace the Indian Air Force’s ageing fleet of Avro transport aircraft and accepted Russia’s offer to build 200 light-utility helicopters under the Make in India initiative.

The DAC, headed by defence minister Manohar Parrikar, also cleared acquisition of 145 pieces of M777 ultra-light Howitzers from the US under a government-to-government deal.

Proposals for six new BrahMos supersonic cruise missile systems for the Indian Navy, worth Rs 2,700 crore, and upgrading two Boeing 777-300 ER for VVIP travel were also accepted, defence sources said."

What a news when i read it. What is our Diet !! I understand we are one of the largest United Nations Peacekeeping force providers but we don't need to create a United Nations military at home. The news about Tejas if made into a more indigestion and focus would be good but it is American Engine everyone must understand. Not sure if our stomach has the tolerance to do that at this moment and make our own engine but we can do it i am sure but it would take time. We really need to do that more because it really makes the stomach and diet have strange feelings and it is imperative and perhaps this is all in that direction step-by-step we are cleansing our stomach and becoming more indian diet. We have told the world that we wont steal and copy and they can be assured of royalty and fairness.

i think i will go and refill my japanese car with arab oil after this post. i really feel for IFS sometimes and really support what they are doing and it is not simple. not sure this is the end of the story with Rafael and France.

 

[jouni]

It is sad that the French has lost the ability to build beautiful planes, Mirages were stunning... this is plain ugly. I could never imagine Finnish Air Force to buy this kind of plane. If you have limited means, you should always aim for perfection.

 

[blueblood]

HAHA Finally its official ...No MORE RAFALE


http://idrw.org/36-rafale-is-final-number-to-be-purchased-parrikar/

Except IDRW no one else is reporting. I hate these as.sholes so much.

 

[Pulkit]

Except IDRW no one else is reporting. I hate these as.sholes so much.

who else needs to report.It is on entire media ...
Aaj Tak Manthan

 

[Compersion]

http://articles.economictimes.india...s/45417924_1_tejas-lca-combat-aircraft-drdo/2

"Engine from GE:

Tejas Mark-I aircraft is powered by General Electric Aviation engine GE-404. After the initial supply of 99 engines (GE F-404 and GE F-414) for IAF and Indian Navy, the rest shall be manufactured by HAL in India after obtaining a licence under a transfer of technology agreement. GE F-414 will power the Mark-II Tejas."

http://www.stratpost.com/ge-extremely-pleased-with-414-selection

“We are extremely pleased with the ADA’s decision, and are confident that India’s technical expertise will help enhance the F414-powered LCA’s mission superiority well into the 21st century,” said Tony Mathis, Vice President of Lynn Military Systems programs, the GE unit which manufactures the engines."

"John Flannery, President & CEO, GE India said, “GE Aviation will supply the initial batch of F414-GE-INS6 engines and the rest will be manufactured in India under transfer of technology arrangement.“

http://www.geaviation.com/press/military/military_20101001.html

"John Flannery, President & CEO, GE India said, "The LCA selection is a big step forward for GE and demonstrates our strong commitment to India. GE Aviation will supply the initial batch of F414-GE-INS6 engines and the rest will be manufactured in India under transfer of technology arrangement."

The F414-GE-INS6 is the highest-thrust F414 model and includes state-of-the-art technology to meet India's demanding Air Force and Naval requirements. Technical advances include a Full Authority Digital Electronic Control (FADEC) and added single-engine safety features.

"We are extremely pleased with the ADA's decision and are confident India's technical expertise will help enhance the F414-powered LCA's mission superiority well into the 21st century," said Tony Mathis, general manager of Lynn Military Systems programs at GE Aviation."

 

[blueblood]

who else needs to report.It is on entire media ...
Aaj Tak Manthan

If true then it sucks balls. Rafale was needed for deep strike capabilities on China border something Tejas is not equipped for. Let's see how things unfold.

 

[Pulkit]

If true then it sucks balls. Rafale was needed for deep strike capabilities on China border something Tejas is not equipped for. Let's see how things unfold.

Just FYI Majority of defense followers are happy with this decision.
36 is the good number .

I do not understand which capability are you talking about when it comes to deep strike...


Once FGFA will be inducted Rafale will no longer be required for deep strike as Su can easily do that job.
FGFA will provide air superiority.

36 is a gap fill till tejas MK2 enters production.

 

[Singh]

Just FYI Majority of defense followers are happy with this decision.
36 is the good number .

I do not understand which capability are you talking about when it comes to deep strike...


Once FGFA will be inducted Rafale will no longer be required for deep strike as Su can easily do that job.
FGFA will provide air superiority.

36 is a gap fill till tejas MK2 enters production.

Majority of defence followers who are pro-DRDO you mean

 

[Pulkit]

Majority of defence followers who are pro-DRDO you mean

Being Pro DRDO is not bad....and yes many are pro DRDO or any other organisation working for the self reliance of our nation....

what is your point?

 

[Singh]

Being Pro DRDO is not bad....and yes many are pro DRDO or any other organisation working for the self reliance of our nation....

what is your point?

Nobody said its bad, it was a tongue in cheek comment.

 

[blueblood]

Being Pro DRDO is not bad....and yes many are pro DRDO or any other organisation working for the self reliance of our nation....

what is your point?

It could be when my weapon doesn't work and enemy's does.

As for your post #1025, it won't be very smart of me to throw myself to the wolves so no further comments.