Indo China War Simulation Thread

[Love Charger]

Everybody can contribute.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I would like to suggest some background if possible, even as others put their contributions in.

 

[Love Charger]

@mokoman. @Angel of War. @Joe Shearer

 

[Joe Shearer]

First, the background - what is it about the People's Republic of China, and what is in our interest.

I will take a moment to gather together various posts on the subject made elsewhere, and place them in order, rather than duplicating them with errors.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Panzerkeil will be displeased i know he will be.

Even if you factor in Chinese help, what kind of 'actual' pressure they can put on us?

Not talking about the logistical help they will provide to Pak - thats a given
but actual boots on the ground or ships near our coast that would help Pak..

How would that go for the chinese, if they decide to attack us from north or move their ships to attack us, while we are busy with Pak?

He allowed it.

Frankly, the real war-game that should be played is one between India and China. I can guarantee that given five to seven years of preparation, they can be seen off - on land. In the air, the situation is far more worrying.

But to return to your point of here and now, frankly, they can do nothing, other than behaving Teutonic and attacking us through Nepal. It is a pity that Deepak Kapoor's personal anger led to the dissolution of Central Command.

 

[Joe Shearer]

We will need mountain artillery not only in east Ladakh; however, it isn't clear which four sectors you have in mind. Please elaborate, and this can be discussed.

yes , precisely

central sector
Ladakh
Western Arunachal and RALP
sikkim

Central sector is uttarakhand?

uttarkhand and himachal . Currently entrusted to 6 mountain division under central command. 14 RAPID in dehradun is being converted to a mountain division too so that there is another div for this sector and it's armoured brigade is being given to another infantry division in Punjab Plains . @Joe Shearer am i correct ?

You are SO right!
For our war-game, I had taken away 14 RAPID to another location, but that is a bit of harmless game play.
It is almost certain that the Chinese will put pressure here next.

Sir , in your simulation have you factored in the Chinese also ?
Or it is only against the Pakistanis?

No, only the Pakistanis, and we have cheated mildly.
This is a game; they can't appeal to the Chinese and the Chinese won't put pressure.
So we have scaled down our Navy and Air Force resources deployed against China to the bare minimum, and shifted them west! Also the Amphibious Brigade.
The observer was very displeased but allowed it.

Panzerkeil will be displeased i know he will be.

Even if you factor in Chinese help, what kind of 'actual' pressure they can put on us?

Not talking about the logistical help they will provide to Pak - thats a given
but actual boots on the ground or ships near our coast that would help Pak..

How would that go for the chinese, if they decide to attack us from north or move their ships to attack us, while we are busy with Pak?

He allowed it.

Frankly, the real war-game that should be played is one between India and China. I can guarantee that given five to seven years of preparation, they can be seen off - on land. In the air, the situation is far more worrying.

But to return to your point of here and now, frankly, they can do nothing, other than behaving Teutonic and attacking us through Nepal. It is a pity that Deepak Kapoor's personal anger led to the dissolution of Central Command.

He dissolved a freaking command ?
I have heard that general sundarjee was so upset after rajive gandy stopped him from further pursuing operation brasstacks that he purposely put India army formations away from the border.

could you provide an insight into the air situation along the Sino Indian border and how do you see it changing in the next 5-7 years .

Take some time.
You need to see the ORBAT for both the PLA AF and the IAF, first, in terms of air-bases, second, in terms of resources that the PLA AF can place IF they wish.
The problem is that much more than the Pakistani and Indian armed forces, the PLA is heavily reliant on very good logistics. They have planned to be able to concentrate forces very rapidly on any given point of their border within certain time periods.

That I know , but how do they plan to deploy their assets , when and where is the question

There is a very interesting paper on the current Chinese philosophy of warfare. When I have a little time, I will try to locate it and pass it over.

 

[hit&run]

Thread made Sticky.

Strictly technical.

No Off-topic or personal exchanges, good, bad, ugly; nothing.

No discussion related to news on the current conflict. Use this thread for the same https://defenceforumindia.com/threads/india-china-2021-border-conflict.83053/page-356#post-2244228

May merge with the old thread later on or earlier if the cross-posting became prevalent.

Thanks

 

[Joe Shearer]

Can't we do the same and do a counter buildup especially since our infra is imroving rapidly . Like PLA wants to be able to concentrate multiple group armies from various theatre commands at the time and location of their choosing then we should also be able to rapidly deploy our assets from the western borders to the east . After all , we're not short on formations are we ? 40 divisions with many independent brigades is a very big number after all

I would define the problem VERY differently.

Just bullet points.

Drastically reduce head-count.
Smaller formations - the tetra-brigade, or even smaller.
Far better equipment, not our present nanga-bhukha soldiery.
Centralised logistics, communications and medical services.
Very high mobility in the plains.
Very fixed numbers in the high mountains.

Follow Mao - 'flout the enemy strategically, respect him tactically.'

How will reducing head count will help .
If nothing else will work , then india will have to throw soldiers at them .
And i dont think men deployed at China are poor equipped , although glaring deficiencies remain.

The LAST thing we should do is throw soldiers at them.
The FIRST thing we should do is to kill as many of them as possible.

Soldiers don't kill soldiers.
Artillery kills soldiers.
Bombs kill soldiers.

W E L L, sort of.
Also Chinese and American.
They have all gone the same way.

We lack artillery sir , we lack it.
The massive babudom of india won't let it pass.and top brass of army is also complacent here .

We don't lack in artillery rather We lack in 155mm artillery

During war gaming we divide all the logistics , signals , engineer and medical assets of the division among it's infantry brigades thus forming a integrated combined arms brigade . This has been wargamed many times . Recently it was done in exercise dakshin shakti by xii corps

We can't fight the Chinese with the large masses and meagre equipment that we have at present. We can fight a defensive war, when we should be planning an offensive one.

sir that's why we have kept 1 strike for ladakh and XVII strike for Arunachal isn't it ?

Is that enough? And what is the general war objective?

A counter offensive into tibet in case of a chinese attack is the objective I guess . Two strike corps are not less tho. Western theatre command too has only two group armies the 76th and 77th for offense as well as defense

They can bring in other troops at lightning speed. The figures I remember from more than a decade ago, after their logistics exercises, was a battalion in one day, a brigade in 3 days, two brigades in a week, and so on. This was practised at various points of their borders, for universality of application.
What we have, what they won't, is acclimatised troops.

 

[Love Charger]

Its very difficult to download maps from survey of india website

View attachment guwahti_water_mark.jpg

 

[Joe Shearer]

If they did that a decade ago , their capabilities must have surely improved by now .

Don't want to elaborate on this now, but think of a division strong road-block between Lhasa and Gar County, in Nyoma Prefecture.
Think of another east of Lhasa.

East of lhasha as in Nyingchi

Tell me, doesn't it hit you in the face?
And does the bordering country between Nyingchi sound familiar to you?

I haven't studied much about the administrative divisions of tibet so i really don't know much about the various countries and prefectures

Not an attack. Just the threat of attack, with massive buildup. An actual war will ostracise china from west, like russia now. And china is export oriented unlike russia. Will kill their nation.

But buildup, thats different. We will have to hold a considerable amount of force on the chinese border. Cause the threat will always be that if chinese get enough force buildup behind us and we leave it mostly unguarded, they might make one giant push and capture massive lands, forcing us to the negotiating table. Quick war with us also wont get them into much trouble internationally.

So in any war with pak, to prevent such a scenario we will always be forced to hold our current forces deployed against china, and put extra reserves if needed.

 

[hit&run]

One simulation that got rejected (no objection came) was gamed with Indian Air defence grid taken out.

We can still game it with this handicap.

As per a China watcher who was active here at DFI, the Chinese are (over) confident to breach any grid after their continuous tussle with Taiwan's grid.

I say let's switch it off even though we saw how it repulsed PAF.

 

[Joe Shearer]

One simulation that got rejected (no objection came) was gamed with Indian Air defence grid taken out.

We can still game it with this handicap.

As per a China watcher who was active here at DFI, the Chinese are (over) confident to breach any grid after their continuous tussle with Taiwan's grid.

I say let's switch it off even though we saw how it repulsed PAF.

Yes, it could be an option, but I had in mind an all-in scenario. Thing is with gaming that it can be tried with different variations to test the relative weight of different parts of the ORBAT. The famous Thorat-K war-gaming was apparently repeated thrice; Thorat, as PLA, won all three.

So shall we do it without the Indian grid?

 

[hit&run]

How good is the Chinese air combat Patrol, I mean their logistical footprint and frequency? How good their air interception will be in slowing the IAF ingress?

 

[Joe Shearer]

As per a China watcher who was active here at DFI, the Chinese are (over) confident to breach any grid after their continuous tussle with Taiwan's grid.

I suspect that was due to overwhelming mass, not just technical superiority. In the Indian case, that wouldn't apply; they couldn't focus all their efforts on a relatively narrow frontage.

However, the possibility of switching off the AD grid can be tried. What happens? Does the PLA AF sweep in? Or do we ignore air power on both sides?

 

[Love Charger]

I suspect that was due to overwhelming mass, not just technical superiority. In the Indian case, that wouldn't apply; they couldn't focus all their efforts on a relatively narrow frontage.

However, the possibility of switching off the AD grid can be tried. What happens? Does the PLA AF sweep in? Or do we ignore air power on both sides?

Dont ignore air power sir , it will be not be good.

 

[Super Flanker]

First, the background - what is it about the People's Republic of China, and what is in our interest.

I will take a moment to gather together various posts on the subject made elsewhere, and place them in order, rather than duplicating them with errors.

People's republic of China and CCP is an expantionist power which is Occuying lands of its neighbouring countries and needs to dealth with accordingly.

 

[hit&run]

Yes, it could be an option, but I had in mind an all-in scenario. The thing is with gaming that it can be tried with different variations to test the relative weight of different parts of the ORBAT. The famous Thorat-K war-gaming was apparently repeated thrice; Thorat, like PLA, won all three.

So shall we do it without the Indian grid?

What is the source of Chinese ORBAT data?

 

[Joe Shearer]

How good is the Chinese air combat Patrol, I mean their logistical footprint and frequency? How good their air interception will be in slowing the IAF ingress?

AT THIS MOMENT, they have token forces, but can bring in large numbers if they are not distracted by Taiwan. The current situation is that they have four or five airfields with their current front-line a/c, but the bulk of the Western airfields are earmarked for training.

Logistical footprint? Present, but not overwhelming.
Frequency? Rare. They are just letting us see their a/c on the ground, without actually making aggressive moves. Not at all like Taiwan. There have been flights and there have been Indian claims of detecting their stealth fighters, but this is a claim, nobody knows what really happened.
Interception? At the moment, between their AD and their manned interceptions, IAF casualty rates will be high, even though they will get through to their targets some of the time. In air-to-air, remains to be seen. The capability of Chinese pilots is suspect.

 

[Joe Shearer]

What is the source of Chinese ORBAT data?

Largely open source and whatever is in print.

I have personally concentrated on the Pakistan simulation, and this was scheduled a month or two later.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Joe Shearer said:
Just bullet points.

Drastically reduce head-count.
Smaller formations - the tetra-brigade, or even smaller.
Far better equipment, not our present nanga-bhukha soldiery.
Centralised logistics, communications and medical services.
Very high mobility in the plains.
Very fixed numbers in the high mountains.

Follow Mao - 'flout the enemy strategically, respect him tactically.'
Click to expand...

Joe Shearer said:
DON'T give me those like icons. What do you think?

Hmm, although a lean and mean army is the future, let's look at it from a different viewpoint.

Drastically reduce head-count..

We can surely cut the extra flab, but we need to maintain numbers. Manpower is the biggest factor countries face when going to war. Yes, we can't have bhuka-nanga soldiers with just a rifle running around the battlefield, but if we are going to take China & Pakistan (eventually both of them at the same time), manpower will be crucial.
We cannot be shy of losses, especially since China can always produce more artillery, more aircraft, and more armored vehicles than we can, and they are likely to always maintain superiority over it.

Very fixed numbers in the high mountains.

? Explain ? Mountains are perfect defenses. We need to make the Himalayas a death pit for the Chinese, that need ruthless guerrilla warfare.

Joe Shearer said:
The LAST thing we should do is throw soldiers at them.

Numerical superiority is paramount in winning war, our appetite to throw soldiers at them will offset their advantage of equipment and technology to some extent. The sole reason we are still retaining Galwan valley is because on on 15th June night, our soldiers did not hesitate even a bit to charge into an enemy, superior in number, better equipped, and better positioned.

Soldiers don't kill soldiers.
Artillery kills soldiers.
Bombs kill soldiers.

Will just point out, this is not true always. Afghanistan (with both Soviet and America), and Ukraine now is showing a different case point.