India-China Border conflict

jai jaganath

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We lack the will, not the capability. Corruption is rampant, then there are saboteurs.


View attachment 183404



Then this -

I want to clear few things here
That indigenous capability is being avoided as at most they are seeing is cloud of war instead of rain
But it will rain they will have to procure from domestic manufacturers no matter how much corrupt or low quality
Yeah we have capability to expand our ammo manufacturing and we will have to do it in war times as its unavoidable
So don't worry about ammo guys
All we should worry is critical spares
 

another_armchair

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I want to clear few things here
That indigenous capability is being avoided as at most they are seeing is cloud of war instead of rain
But it will rain they will have to procure from domestic manufacturers no matter how much corrupt or low quality
Yeah we have capability to expand our ammo manufacturing and we will have to do it in war times as its unavoidable
So don't worry about ammo guys
All we should worry is critical spares
Manufacturing quality ammo opens up doors for export orders.

Why are we overlooking that vital point here?

Pakis are happily exporting 130 mm Arty rounds and other mortar rounds to Ukraine. That's still valuable money and a stress test of their manufacturing capability whether it will be firing on all pistons during an emergency such as war?

Indigenous capability cannot be built overnight. Russia has woken up to that reality. Ukraine is dependent on EU & US who are scrounging around the globe for ammo and spares. Their own stockpile of 'cutting-edge' weapons is rapidly shrinking.
 

jai jaganath

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Manufacturing quality ammo opens up doors for export orders.

Why are we overlooking that vital point here?

Pakis are happily exporting 130 mm Arty rounds and other mortar rounds to Ukraine. That's still valuable money and a stress test of their manufacturing capability whether it will be firing on all pistons during an emergency such as war?

Indigenous capability cannot be built overnight. Russia has woken up to that reality. Ukraine is dependent on EU & US who are scrounging around the globe for ammo and spares. Their own stockpile of 'cutting-edge' weapons is rapidly shrinking.
When shit hits the fan things change
This is very particular in our case
I am not saying quality will increase but many things would go un noticed
During kargil war many missiles were not integrated in m-2000s but it happened during war and showed the result
I am not comparing the situations as both are way different but I beg to differ here we have capability to produce ammos not of western quality or even Russian but we can and we will
I personally think things went south for Russia was ill planning of logistics rather than shortage (might be wrong as I am not following it regularly)
 

another_armchair

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When shit hits the fan things change
This is very particular in our case
I am not saying quality will increase but many things would go un noticed
During kargil war many missiles were not integrated in m-2000s but it happened during war and showed the result
I am not comparing the situations as both are way different but I beg to differ here we have capability to produce ammos not of western quality or even Russian but we can and we will
I personally think things went south for Russia was ill planning of logistics rather than shortage (might be wrong as I am not following it regularly)
Yes.. .IL-76 and other transporters fly to every corner of the globe in the name of emergency procurement at a markup of X times.
 

mist_consecutive

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What do we import from Russia other than tank ammo?
You will be astounded at how dependent we are on Russia for everything. For example,

Airforce:- Russian jet parts, especially electronics & engine parts. Su-30MKI is partially indigenized but has no progress for Mig-29s, or helicopters such as Mi-17, or even transports such as An-32.

Army:- T-72/90 parts such as electronics, barrel, actuators, SA-6, Osa, Shilka, ATGMs (ammunitions) etc. also their ammunition.

Navy:- Electronics, propulsion, etc., missiles, ammunitions, especially for Russian ships such as Talwar-class, radars, etc.




The ^above was witnessed in Kargil alone. A two front war under the overhang of CSD will see insane action from all quarters.

We will probably need millions of Arty rounds just to keep the opposition warm. If war prolongs like the Ukraine-Russia war then our mil-ind capabilities will be tested to the max for sure.
Kargil was a division-level skirmish, mostly focused on IA ground operations and some support from IAF. It was not really a full-fledged war where tri-service participation and different threat vectors are present on the battlefield.

The last real battle we saw was 1971, and in such a battle, every person and private industry gets roped in either in MIC or as a foot-soldier. If you folks have doubts about our industrial capacity have a look at COVID accessory manufacturing, like N95 masks, PPE kits, Oxygen concentrators and vaccines, and it took us like 6-8 months to set up, fulfill our domestic consumption and start exporting these things aswell.

I expect a similar thing from China aswell, so the war will drag out to who can throw more meat in the grinder and who have better allies.
 

another_armchair

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If you folks have doubts about our industrial capacity have a look at COVID accessory manufacturing, like N95 masks, PPE kits, Oxygen concentrators and vaccines, and it took us like 6-8 months to set up, fulfill our domestic consumption and start exporting these things aswell.
Almost 99% of the equipment to manufacture those N95 masks to PPE kits to O2 concentrator kits came from China.

My friends company imported a couple of those mask making machines... then there were others who imported lakhs of masks costing them less than a rupee, sold in bulk to hospitals at almost 3-6 rupees a piece. Then there were IR thermometers and nebulizers.. which arrived by the shiploads.

So good luck trying to scale up production with Chinese machinery during a war with China.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...-bofors-guns-cbi-fir/articleshow/59702143.cms

^ Hope things have changed for the better.
 

Hari Sud

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Something pretty interesting is happening in Ladakh, both sides are maintaining troops' presence very close to the border, and this is increasing every year.

Normally, the pattern is by end of Oct as the winter sets in, troops return back to the main HQs for the respective sides, which is Xinjiang/Chengdu for China, and J&K/mainland India for us.
This year, not only both sides are maintaining ~2 division strength permanently close to the border (within ~100 km), but the build-up has increased instead of decreasing like every year.

So this has become a competition of who can militarise the LAC with greater strength. Currently, China is winning, but only narrowly. Whenever and wherever China will see a clear advantage, it will mount the next military operation.

It is to note that, China won't be aggressive in areas, even cooperative where we have 1:1 or better parity with them. In areas where they have 2:1 or 3:1 parity, they conduct probing incursions or minor non-aggressive standoffs to check our preparedness and response. While, areas where they have 5:1 or greater parity, will be met with aggressive advances, incursions, and even major physical fights by the Chinese.

@mokoman
‘Show us on the map where Chinese have numerical advantage? I believe and I am only going by media reports and occasional military briefing that there is absolute parity on both sides. I clearly read in the Global Times report a month or so back that absolute parity of Indian Troops against the Chinese buildup has made them nervous hence they are building more and more of their infrastructure on their side to intimidate. That parity is a disadvantage for Chinese.
 

mist_consecutive

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Almost 99% of the equipment to manufacture those N95 masks to PPE kits to O2 concentrator kits came from China.

My friends company imported a couple of those mask making machines... then there were others who imported lakhs of masks costing them less than a rupee, sold in bulk to hospitals at almost 3-6 rupees a piece.

So good luck trying to scale up production with Chinese machinery during a war with China.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...-bofors-guns-cbi-fir/articleshow/59702143.cms

^ Hope things have changed for the better.
No, you misunderstood manufacturing. China is a shop that sells good quality materials at cheap prices, so everybody buys from them. That does not mean there are no other shops selling the same material.

A large share of medical equipment is either imported or assembled from parts bought from China because their products are cheap & good. Alternatives exist, but they are costly.

Govt. has already made importing from China tougher, and I know a lot of shipments are blocked at ports because of the regulations, manufacturers are not ordering from China anymore, or are opting for different routes (air cargo, for example, which again shoots up the price). This has made domestic manufacturers switch to Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and even domestic industries.

So no, your concern is not valid.
 

mist_consecutive

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‘Show us on the map where Chinese have numerical advantage? I believe and I am only going by media reports and occasional military briefing that there is absolute parity on both sides. I clearly read in the Global Times report a month or so back that absolute parity of Indian Troops against the Chinese buildup has made them nervous hence they are building more and more of their infrastructure on their side to intimidate. That parity is a disadvantage for Chinese.
I believe you can understand & compare build-up and numbers by satellite images ?

DBO (Chinese side) - https://satellites.pro/China_map#35.333157,78.195319,16
vs,
DBO (Indian side) - https://satellites.pro/India_map#35.391045,77.921948,17

Gogra hot spring (Chinese side) - https://satellites.pro/China_map#34.406901,78.917627,17,
vs,
Gogra hot spring (Indian side) - https://satellites.pro/India_map#34.293672,78.878531,16,

TLDR; Troop parity means nothing if they can overwhelm us with equipment & artillery, also we don't have 1:1 troop parity, more like 1.5 : 1 in their favor, and 3 : 1 equipment parity in their favour.
 

Hari Sud

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You will be astounded at how dependent we are on Russia for everything. For example,

Airforce:- Russian jet parts, especially electronics & engine parts. Su-30MKI is partially indigenized but has no progress for Mig-29s, or helicopters such as Mi-17, or even transports such as An-32.

Army:- T-72/90 parts such as electronics, barrel, actuators, SA-6, Osa, Shilka, ATGMs (ammunitions) etc. also their ammunition.

Navy:- Electronics, propulsion, etc., missiles, ammunitions, especially for Russian ships such as Talwar-class, radars, etc.



Kargil was a division-level skirmish, mostly focused on IA ground operations and some support from IAF. It was not really a full-fledged war where tri-service participation and different threat vectors are present on the battlefield.

The last real battle we saw was 1971, and in such a battle, every person and private industry gets roped in either in MIC or as a foot-soldier. If you folks have doubts about our industrial capacity have a look at COVID accessory manufacturing, like N95 masks, PPE kits, Oxygen concentrators and vaccines, and it took us like 6-8 months to set up, fulfill our domestic consumption and start exporting these things aswell.

I expect a similar thing from China aswell, so the war will drag out to who can throw more meat in the grinder and who have better allies.
If we had purchased let us say British, French or American hardware then we will be dependent on them.
 

mist_consecutive

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mokoman

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I believe you can understand & compare build-up and numbers by satellite images ?

DBO (Chinese side) - https://satellites.pro/China_map#35.333157,78.195319,16
vs,
DBO (Indian side) - https://satellites.pro/India_map#35.391045,77.921948,17

Gogra hot spring (Chinese side) - https://satellites.pro/China_map#34.406901,78.917627,17,
vs,
Gogra hot spring (Indian side) - https://satellites.pro/India_map#34.293672,78.878531,16,

TLDR; Troop parity means nothing if they can overwhelm us with equipment & artillery, also we don't have 1:1 troop parity, more like 1.5 : 1 in their favor, and 3 : 1 equipment parity in their favour.
also the biggest one , their base in galwan valley along a 5km stretch .

i think we purposely spread out our base/posts to minimize loses in case of a Chinese first strike. they on other hand build large tent cities.


China map - Google Chrome_20221123_205304.png_stripped.png

China map - Google Chrome_20221123_205256.png_stripped.png
 

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