India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[hit&run]

Just saw excerpts of FM Jaishankar’s interview with Arnab.

I like the FM a lot but think his approach to China is a little flawed. This is because:

- he appears to advocate resolving the dispute via dialogue with reference to status quo and the two countries’ 1993 agreement to deploy minimum troops around the border.

- Essentially He says in his business things are resolved by talks.

- Yes he is correct about dialogue and one acknowledges statecraft is a complex and unique craft BUT I don’t think he is not correct in this regard with respect to China.

- his apparent mindset is flawed because China is not a rules based country as it has demonstrated to the world time and time again.

- hence as China has breached the 1993 agreement and all other agreements, India’s starting position should be, these agreements are void. Clean slate. Lets negotiate (see below).

- Jaishankar is a career diplomat who started in the 1970s and cut his teeth in the 80s and 90s - China And the world then was a different beast.

- I think Jaishankar should shift his approach vis a vie China (if that is possible seeing that he is somewhat long in the tooth career wise) to that of some of the more hawkish US diplomats who, especially a few decades ago, used some pretty effective coercive diplomacy to achieve their goals.

- the then US approach appeared to proceed on the basis that diplomacy was NOT an alternative to military force. Rather, the US diplomacy was part of it and rolled into hard US power projections as spearheaded by its military.

- I think the US approach WILL NOT be broadly applicable to India these days BUT I believe it is certainly applicable regarding China because China is unique In the way it is organised internally and hence in the way it conducts its statecraft.

- Essentially, China only understands the language of strength which only the Indian armed forces can project.

- therefore Indian diplomacy for China must evolve into a more coercive form and be rolled into a coercive Indian military force.

He is staying true to the scope of his job. To talk about dialogue for sake of dialogue is his only brief. He has no mandate to call the day off and snap ties or make war. The buck for the same stops at the PMO. Any analyst worth his salt will use his utterances to improve his guesstimates on what PMO may or may not do. Too much scuritnizing his functioning is missing the woods for the trees.

 

[omaebakabaka]

Just saw excerpts of FM Jaishankar’s interview with Arnab.

I like the FM a lot but think his approach to China is a little flawed. This is because:

- he appears to advocate resolving the dispute via dialogue with reference to status quo and the two countries’ 1993 agreement to deploy minimum troops around the border.

- Essentially He says in his business things are resolved by talks.

- Yes he is correct about dialogue and one acknowledges statecraft is a complex and unique craft BUT I don’t think he is not correct in this regard with respect to China.

- his apparent mindset is flawed because China is not a rules based country as it has demonstrated to the world time and time again.

- hence as China has breached the 1993 agreement and all other agreements, India’s starting position should be, these agreements are void. Clean slate. Lets negotiate (see below).

- Jaishankar is a career diplomat who started in the 1970s and cut his teeth in the 80s and 90s - China And the world then was a different beast.

- I think Jaishankar should shift his approach vis a vie China (if that is possible seeing that he is somewhat long in the tooth career wise) to that of some of the more hawkish US diplomats who, especially a few decades ago, used some pretty effective coercive diplomacy to achieve their goals.

- the then US approach appeared to proceed on the basis that diplomacy was NOT an alternative to military force. Rather, the US diplomacy was part of it and rolled into hard US power projections as spearheaded by its military.

- I think the US approach WILL NOT be broadly applicable to India these days BUT I believe it is certainly applicable regarding China because China is unique In the way it is organised internally and hence in the way it conducts its statecraft.

- Essentially, China only understands the language of strength which only the Indian armed forces can project.

- therefore Indian diplomacy for China must evolve into a more coercive form and be rolled into a coercive Indian military force.

Any FM sports atleast two faces my friend

 

[Freezer Dam]

Let me take you a bit off the topic...

India time of Independence declaration at 1200 night, Abhijit Muhurta and the day was decided by three Brahmins astrologically - Pundit Hardoe Joshi, Pundit Rajendra Prasad and Sarvapalli Radhakrishnan. It was actually synchronised with the birth chart of Nehru... with the aim of perpetuating Nehru and his dynasty rule over India..

But in doing so, five planets got placed in the third house - house of valour, neighbourhood, conflicts, borders, communications travels ., roads etc... dangers and courage...

India borders as per that chart will always remain volatile and in trouble and Indian Army will always remain on tenterhooks..

Thanks sir, it's a new information for us ...Majority of us have no knowledge about that...

 

[Indrajit]

 

[tarunraju]

Saw some posts recently about the Army actually being expanded in the future. Don't think that's a good idea at all.

Guess what will happen when there's some semblance of disengagement/peace? India will immediately raise eight mountain strike corps, because the PLA will be doing exactly that. Why? Xi Jinping's "make Tibet an impregnable fortress" directive to the PLA, and PLA's assumption that Tibet includes all of Ladakh, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Arunachal. PLA's biggest takeaway from the events since March 2020, is that it still has some way to go before it can scare India and achieve Xi's political goals without contact or a single bullet fired / single life lost on the ground.

India-China border will be as militarized as the Korean DMZ.

Hence my prediction that Indian troop-strengths will swell by 40-50%, with a proportionate upscale of equipment (radars, ALGs, light tanks, howitzers, MBRLs, attack helos, tactical transporters for para drops, surveillance equipment, MIL SATs, ASATs, border infra, tunnels, exotic railway projects such as Leh-Ambala, etc.).

Right now China's India posture is an over-reliance on technology that the border-clash situations seldom demand. For example, contact at Pangong Tso will not warrant the PLA unleashing a rocket volley.

Therefore the objective for both sides will be troop-strengths, and ensuring that every border feature (peak, ridge, valley, plain) is manned, so there's absolutely no scope for movement by the other side.

 

[jadoogar]

Let me take you a bit off the topic...

India time of Independence declaration at 1200 night, Abhijit Muhurta and the day was decided by three Brahmins astrologically - Pundit Hardoe Joshi, Pundit Rajendra Prasad and Sarvapalli Radhakrishnan. It was actually synchronised with the birth chart of Nehru... with the aim of perpetuating Nehru and his dynasty rule over India..

But in doing so, five planets got placed in the third house - house of valour, neighbourhood, conflicts, borders, communications travels ., roads etc... dangers and courage...

India borders as per that chart will always remain volatile and in trouble and Indian Army will always remain on tenterhooks..

President Rajendra Prasad was not a Pandit.

 

[Freezer Dam]

Same old excuses.

You would rather cling to the status quo you know than try to actually find a superior and permanent resolution to the situation.

With this type of mindset - we will be fighting the same land battles and getting the same coffins for another three thousand years.

Not a matter for us, we always take that as pride....

 

[Synergy]

Taiwan plans to retire its Mirage -2000 fleet ! should India buy? – Indian Defence Research Wing

idrw.org

Taiwan plans to retire its Mirage -2000 fleet ! should India buy?

absolutely. we'd not let it go. and I don't think any existing operator other than us will have a plan to acquire those. so a win win situation.

we'd scrap mrfa and go for it and some more Raffys. 36+66+36 = 138. problem solved till mwf, amca.

excellent news. Sirji you have made my day.
Superlike.

 

[avknight1408]

Jak LI & The grenadiers.....

 

[Pugilist]

He is staying true to the scope of his job. To talk about dialogue for sake of dialogue is his only brief. He has no mandate to call the day off and snap ties or make war. The buck for the same stops at the PMO. Any analyst worth his salt will use his utterances to improve his guesstimates on what PMO may or may not do. Too much scuritnizing his functioning is missing the woods for the trees.

Who decides what the ”scope” of his ministry is? The Foreign Ministry (FM) in isolation, the entire government or the PMO. Is this scope than static regardless of what Happens during the administration’s term?

Is the FM’s brief only dialogue for the sake of dialogue. Surely not. If so, why have such a docile FM.

FM’s by their nature need to be plugged into the strategic direction a country seeks to achieve or strategic direction with regards to a specific country.

My point is they cannot simply put up their hand and say only talking is our raison d’être.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Jak LI & The grenadiers.....

Looks like they are carrying the Insas. Aren’t these known to jam in high altitude conditions? No Sig Sauers for these guys?

 

[samsaptaka]

Gestures and attitude convey resolve and firmness to the enemy and is an essential tool for negotiations, ever heard of posturing, it is what China has been doing all this time, not that India was not doing it but we were not seeing the kind of doublespeak that the Chinese side where engaging in from our MEA, of late they have started doing that and our DM's gestures was very apt and necessary message has been conveyed(pls refer to the NDTV article I posted earlier).The economy argument is utter nonsense when it comes to stand-offs of this nature and only shows lack of insight or knowledge or something even sillier what folks here refer to as "Dhoti Shivering"

Guys , request everyone to stop using this racist term "dhoti shivering". Do you think our ancestors were quaking in their dhotis when fighting the kurukshetra war, or do you think Rama fought Ravana in cargo pants ? Stop degrading your own culture before demanding that others do the same.
Sorry for OT, but have seen this term being employed much too much.

 

[garg_bharat]

We need 10 extra 'mixed' divisions at this time.

 

[Suryavanshi]

So waht is the point of discussion ... that it is of utmost importance that India settles its land border on first priority. In that direction, India has tried assiduously in diplomatic front to settle their Borders with Myanmar and Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.

On the Chinese / Tibet border and with Pakistan India has almost exhausted diplomacy and only military means are left to provide security to those borders,,

Those borders happen to be in such a terrain where modern technology-based swift and sharp operation has limited scopes and ranges. Hene, perforce Bhoop Singh is the main weapon and system.. His numbers can not be reduced as he can not be replaced by any physical of technological horse... aircraft or Naval ship.

That is it.. lump or keep it.

Ayy sir we have 3 hostile and 4 non hostile neigbour.
Bangladesh yes they are Hostile. They can be sorted out by erecting smart fence throughout Indo Bangladesh border. It will require money time and effort but It will be worth it.
Next up China now there is no immediate solution to China but taking a fight to Tibet and making Tibet a buffere zone should work.
Pakistan we really never goona solve the border with them in the near future just punk their Navy and Air force that's all it will take to keep them down.

Nepal, Myanmmar, Bhutan and Sri lanka are all upto Diplomacy.

 

[EarthCitizen]

Arunachal Times is claiming that 5 Indian citizens have been abducted by PLA from the Upper Subansiri district. Five persons belonging to the Tagin community were abducted from the jungle near Nacho . How can it be possible? isn't Nacho far away from the border?

Chinese army ‘abducts’ five villagers from Nacho | The Arunachal Times

arunachaltimes.in

 

[omaebakabaka]

Guys , request everyone to stop using this racist term "dhoti shivering". Do you think our ancestors were quaking in their dhotis when fighting the kurukshetra war, or do you think Rama fought Ravana in cargo pants ? Stop degrading your own culture before demanding that others do the same.
Sorry for OT, but have seen this term being employed much too much.

As a bramhan, I sport dhoti everyday doing sandhya, thank you for reminding folks. Racist is not the word though....

 

[Tumba]

absolutely. we'd not let it go. and I don't think any existing operator other than us will have a plan to acquire those. so a win win situation.

we'd scrap mrfa and go for it and some more Raffys. 36+66+36 = 138. problem solved till mwf, amca.

excellent news. Sirji you have made my day.
Superlike.

fcuk that India needs F-35, ask ruskie to deliver emergency S-400 from thr own stock if not delivered cancel it, go into Nato lite status with US and buy F-35,
folks here say need to push the LAC only way that can be done is local air dominance we wont achieve it with 70/100/200 rafales.
Need to tighten our belts and go for 100 F35s, pretty sure the situation at border with china is going to stay for long, china is not looking for peaceful exit its predictable negotiations and entry smwhr else. Pakis will follow xi command to push in coordination

 

[Suryavanshi]

fcuk that India needs F-35, ask ruskie to deliver emergency S-400 from thr own stock if not delivered cancel it, go into Nato lite status with US and buy F-35,
folks here say need to push the LAC only way that can be done is local air dominance we wont achieve it with 70/100/200 rafales.
Need to tighten our belts and go for 100 F35s, pretty sure the situation at border with china is going to stay for long, china is not looking for peaceful exit its predictable negotiations and entry smwhr else. Pakis will follow xi command to push in coordination

Buy F 35 in the short term and handicap Indian fighter program in the long run.

 

[Tumba]

Buy F 35 in the short term and handicap Indian fighter program in the long run.

buy F35 eat grass and buy some more, Tejas program is deliberately fckud by IAF itself,
whole Tejas MK1A orders of 83 will be delayed thats wat IAF do to get more Rafales offer them better go F-35,
Euros are reducing F-35 orders, turks blew its chance ...
F-35 manufacturing is touching close to 25 a month, India can get all 100 by 2024/25 if ordered by next year

 

[tarunraju]

Buy F 35 in the short term and handicap Indian fighter program in the long run.

Indian fighter program will never bear fruits in time as long as MOD has IAS officers in it.

India is going to need 10 sqns of a "fleet filler" aircraft very soon. You can't be patrolling/intercepting PLAAF and PAF with frontline aircraft.

There's only a very faint possibility of Tejas making it through. More likely the TATAs are oiling BJP to get the Lockheed F-21 deal go through.

Both PAF and PLAAF have extensive experience either flying or squaring off against F-16, so I really hope the babudom factor that before buying India its next generation of flying coffins.

If babudom absolutely wants to buy a phoren fleet-filler jet, and we don't want it to be F-21, then it has to be Gripen E with AESA and Meteor capability.