India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

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garg_bharat

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A settled border is the best border. Deployment of IA at Ladakh region like today isn't feasible long-term. If we fight against China and gain Aksai Hind, they won't settle borders, and we can't trust them. A border with independent Tibet govt will be far better.
When you cannot gain Aksai Chin, how will you gain independence of Tibet?

Think about it?

Buffer states not feasible in the current world where communication is very easy.
 

cannonfodder

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I don't think anything going to happen. Chinese have done their part of salami slicing and dug in their advances. Note that they have lost more men but got over this loss for the gains they have made. Right now India is battling corona and neither modi nor indian people have appetite for short war with pandemic and economic crisis.

Even if modi launches some operation right now, overall the popular sentiment will be that of "why start war in middle of pandemic". I think best is to hold ground and capture some ground when opportunity presents itself (later). Otherwise there is no incentive for chinese to give away their gains.
 

LDev

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Yea agree with all your points if we go by OSINT handles. Fact of the matter is , the majority of India’s warheads are pointed at China. You can take my word for it, however much that means. If one honestly believes that India would have only 30 warheads pointed at China, it would be utterly dismal. Our nuclear program changed gears towards Chinese deterrence a long time ago. Which is why India has been systematically going for longer range ICBMs. The PM had indirectly(some would call it bluntly) confirmed that India possesses hydrogen weapons. Whichever way you look at it, nuclear deterrence towards China is not an issue at all. And by all means, the primary targets would be eastern China. Not the western front. There is no point in targetting smaller cities in the xinjiang provinces.
For nuclear deterrence to be achieved, if you’re not able to target the opponents capital, then you don’t have deterrence . Beijing was always a target and will always be. No, it’s not just indian cities that would be burning with radioactive ash, but China as well. At least the China that we know of today. A basic understanding of nuclear warfare should tell you that such an exchange will finish a country or whatever is left of it. There is no survival there. There is no going back.

I am not even going to start on the topics of SLBMa or other platforms. Unless the chinks possess the capability to shoot down all kinds of ICBMs, there is no chance of survival there.
OSINT again, says that India has 150-160 warheads. The 50 odd Mirage 2000s are all hardwired for nuke delivery, so 50 warheads plus some reserves are apportioned there. Going by the conservative estimate of 30 Agnis of various ranges targeting China, would take that upto 80 deployed plus lets say 20 in reserve for that. That would leave 50-60 warheads in the stockpile. If K-4 is operational on the Arihant then you have another 4 warheads there. The big unknown is the status of MIRVing the Agni missiles. Artist's renditions have emerged of 4 warheads mounted on an Agni. If all 30 deployed Agnis can be MIRVed with 200 kt warheads, that will be a significant deterrent. Think about it in terms of megatons that each country can deliver against the other. 4x200kt per Agni is 800 kt per missile. Even with 30 deployed missiles that is 24 MT delivered to various targets in China. And if you have 4 MIRVed K-4s, that is another 3 MT. That IMO is a credible deterrent. But ultimately what will deter the adversary is known only to them. Bottom line is that neither country should feel that it can deliver a first strike and survive the response.
 

Sridhar_TN

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OSINT again, says that India has 150-160 warheads. The 50 odd Mirage 2000s are all hardwired for nuke delivery, so 50 warheads plus some reserves are apportioned there. Going by the conservative estimate of 30 Agnis of various ranges targeting China, would take that upto 80 deployed plus lets say 20 in reserve for that. That would leave 50-60 warheads in the stockpile. If K-4 is operational on the Arihant then you have another 4 warheads there. The big unknown is the status of MIRVing the Agni missiles. Artist's renditions have emerged of 4 warheads mounted on an Agni. If all 30 deployed Agnis can be MIRVed with 200 kt warheads, that will be a significant deterrent. Think about it in terms of megatons that each country can deliver against the other. 4x200kt per Agni is 800 kt per missile. Even with 30 deployed missiles that is 24 MT delivered to various targets in China. And if you have 4 MIRVed K-4s, that is another 3 MT. That IMO is a credible deterrent. But ultimately what will deter the adversary is known only to them. Bottom line is that neither country should feel that it can deliver a first strike and survive the response.
I can assure you, that if India strikes Chinese targets with nukes, China will not survive. There is no question about that. Forget the mirages. They will not be able to reach eastern China at all. They are meant only and mostly for Pakistan.
In similar fashion, if China decides to nuke India, India will not survive as well.
Delivery vehicles such as the Agnis can be produced in mass. I would not hold onto the motion of OSINT saying there are only 30 missiles. There is absolutely no way that a nation would let OSINT entities get an accurate estimate of Their arsenal.
In the nuclear aspect, the Chinese have consistently been saying article after article that India downplays its nuclear capabilities and arsenal to the world. There were some rumors a few years ago that India has anywhere between 200 to 250 warheads. Various enrichment centers in Karnataka and Orissa were circled out, and analysts predicted that India possessed fusion weaponry technology. Turns out the PM confirms that in national television a couple of years later.
 

garg_bharat

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I can assure you, that if India strikes Chinese targets with nukes, China will not survive. There is no question about that. Forget the mirages. They will not be able to reach eastern China at all. They are meant only and mostly for Pakistan.
In similar fashion, if China decides to nuke India, India will not survive as well.
Delivery vehicles such as the Agnis can be produced in mass. I would not hold onto the motion of OSINT saying there are only 30 missiles. There is absolutely no way that a nation would let OSINT entities get an accurate estimate of Their arsenal.
In the nuclear aspect, the Chinese have consistently been saying article after article that India downplays its nuclear capabilities and arsenal to the world. There were some rumors a few years ago that India has anywhere between 200 to 250 warheads. Various enrichment centers in Karnataka and Orissa were circled out, and analysts predicted that India possessed fusion weaponry technology. Turns out the PM confirms that in national television a couple of years later.
USA, Russia, UK and France have an overt nuclear posture. Rest have covert nuclear posture.

Exact is never known in case of any country. Estimate is based on deployed weapons.

China is rumored to have vast underground bases connected with tunnels. Any estimate for China may be completely off the charts.

We are in a very dicey and dangerous time. China has already started WW3 with Covid19. Most people are not able to understand the significance of Covid19. It is biowarfare, no different from nuking other countries.

China has proved in one masterstroke that NATO is a failure; as countries of NATO have failed to unite over Covid19 and come up with a response. China has won the first round I am afraid. West's response is too weak - like an ant trying to shake a tree.

India does not have a magic wand. India must play along. It is important that an international coalition forms against China.
 

Indopacific Arya

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OSINT again, says that India has 150-160 warheads. The 50 odd Mirage 2000s are all hardwired for nuke delivery, so 50 warheads plus some reserves are apportioned there. Going by the conservative estimate of 30 Agnis of various ranges targeting China, would take that upto 80 deployed plus lets say 20 in reserve for that. That would leave 50-60 warheads in the stockpile. If K-4 is operational on the Arihant then you have another 4 warheads there. The big unknown is the status of MIRVing the Agni missiles. Artist's renditions have emerged of 4 warheads mounted on an Agni. If all 30 deployed Agnis can be MIRVed with 200 kt warheads, that will be a significant deterrent. Think about it in terms of megatons that each country can deliver against the other. 4x200kt per Agni is 800 kt per missile. Even with 30 deployed missiles that is 24 MT delivered to various targets in China. And if you have 4 MIRVed K-4s, that is another 3 MT. That IMO is a credible deterrent. But ultimately what will deter the adversary is known only to them. Bottom line is that neither country should feel that it can deliver a first strike and survive the response.
first of all,we need to know, what is the deterrence means? If our PM announced that such type of word, we can simply believe that we have what we need to counter( we have enough enrich plutonium for 1000 bomb).

Regarding our Nuclear based submarine, may be we have 3 as of now in full operational configuration in water.
 

garg_bharat

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first of all,we need to know, what is the deterrence means? If our PM announced that such type of word, we can simply believe that we have what we need to counter( we have enough enrich plutonium for 1000 bomb).

Regarding our Nuclear based submarine, may be we have 3 as of now in full operational configuration in water.
India does not need ballistic missile submarines for viable nuke posture. India is a big country with a variety of terrain. It is not difficult for India to build a few bases underground that can withstand a direct nuclear strike.

The submarine is an additional surety; but at a very high cost.

I think biggest difficulty is India's lack of focus on the Chinese threat. The institutional will to counter the threat has been weak. Hope the current standoff mobilizes the institutions that dictate India's security into finally build capabilities that will be effective against China.
 

garg_bharat

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I am 100% with this idea to start a border war because Biden would be disastrous for us🤔

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Sahwag ji, our dear EAM has already ruled out military alliances.
USA (even under Trump) is under no obligation to come to the aid of India.
Expecting USA to act along with India is a long shot.

While a war may still occur in October; expecting it to impact US elections is wild guesswork.

My opinion is India should watch carefully what others do rather than say. 'Shri' Trump has not fired a single missile at China yet; even after 160K Americans dead.
 

Sehwag213

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Sahwag ji, our dear EAM has already ruled out military alliances.
USA (even under Trump) is under no obligation to come to the aid of India.
Expecting USA to act along with India is a long shot.

While a war may still occur in October; expecting it to impact US elections is wild guesswork.

My opinion is India should watch carefully what others do rather than say. Shri Trump has not yet fired a single missile at China.
Do you really believe Biden would be friendly with India and tough on China ?
Biden getting elected would massively embolden India's ultra leftist -Muslim combo.
We would have to deal with both internal and external security alone.
 

ashdoc

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Surely some MLA's switch over for one inducement or the other, doesn't mean those Gvts (most of which were formed through all sorts of maneuvering and scheming in the first place) aren't dying natural deaths.

No point whining - politics is a 24 x 7 affair. And virtue signaling about "spend that money on defense" just comes across as amateurish/childish talk.
Yes , but between 1963 and 1990 successive governments had maintained defence budget at least 2.5 percent of the GDP . So if there is a will there is a way . This government claims that it's PM is chowkidar , so the least that was expected was increase in defence budget to 2.5 percent of GDP .
 

garg_bharat

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Do you really believe Biden would be friendly with India and tough on China ?
Biden getting elected would massively embolden India's ultra leftist -Muslim combo.
We would have to deal with both internal and external security alone.
I see Biden as continuation of Obama. The idea of quad was floated when Obama was President. USA wanted to sell F16 and F18 to India when Obama was President.

India's own politics and internal dynamic is often ignored by analysts.

It is same in Pakistan. They also want the moon from external parties but not offering anything in return.

This seems to be a deficiency of South Asians.

I repeatedly say that relationships work only when there is give and take - if you want something from USA, what are you ready to offer in return? If you can work it out then you can make a deal under Biden also.
 

Sehwag213

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I see Biden as continuation of Obama. The idea of quad was floated when Obama was President. USA wanted to sell F16 and F18 to India when Obama was President.

India's own politics and internal dynamic is often ignored by analysts.

It is same in Pakistan. They also want the moon from external parties but not offering anything in return.

This seems to be a deficiency of South Asians.

I repeatedly say that relationships work only when there is give and take - if you want something from USA, what are you ready to offer in return? If you can work it out then you can make a deal under Biden also.
Ok. Never mind. If following news is true , then this means China can easily purchase Trump's loyalty

20200804_104658.jpg
 

LDev

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I can assure you, that if India strikes Chinese targets with nukes, China will not survive. There is no question about that. Forget the mirages. They will not be able to reach eastern China at all. They are meant only and mostly for Pakistan.
In similar fashion, if China decides to nuke India, India will not survive as well.
Delivery vehicles such as the Agnis can be produced in mass. I would not hold onto the motion of OSINT saying there are only 30 missiles. There is absolutely no way that a nation would let OSINT entities get an accurate estimate of Their arsenal.
In the nuclear aspect, the Chinese have consistently been saying article after article that India downplays its nuclear capabilities and arsenal to the world. There were some rumors a few years ago that India has anywhere between 200 to 250 warheads. Various enrichment centers in Karnataka and Orissa were circled out, and analysts predicted that India possessed fusion weaponry technology. Turns out the PM confirms that in national television a couple of years later.
There is probably weapons grade Pu in large quantities but not converted to warheads??? The number of warheads is a delicate balancing act between nations. When one nation decides to breakout, others quickly follow suit.

Anyway, what started this conversation was the contention that should China initiate a conventional missile strike against Indian cities that India's NFU no longer be valid, implication being that India will be free of the shackles of NFU and go in for a nuke first strike on China in retaliation. However, that will not happen as is amply demonstrated because that in turn will invite a Chinese response which in turn will ensure that India fires back with what remains of it's arsenal. So for the moment until India get's a means to strike conventionally into the Chinese heartland, what options are available? The blockade of the Malacca Straits is the only viable option on the table in the next few months. As for producing hundreds of Agnis for the conventional strike role. On defence forum boards we may have all kinds of ideas, but I do not see this one being taken seriously by GOI and MOD. In the rest of the world, single stage SRBMs are cheap to produce and are produced in the hundreds. Even the bulk of PLARF SRBMs are single stage DF-15s. But most 2 stage missiles are reserved for the nuke role.

The conventional long range strike weapon of choice for India should be a long range subsonic cruise missile that can has a warhead of 450 kg, a CEP of 1 meter and a range of 3000 km, like the Russian Kalibr missiles or the longest range Tomahawk, and to be launched from land, air and sea. That CEP will have the same effect as having a 1.5 ton warhead with a 40 meter CEP on an Agni. And if India can produce such a missile at the same cost as the US produces a Tomahawk, it will be Rs 15 crore per unit. But DRDO is taking forever just to develop a 1000 km Nirbhay, so who knows how long the wait will be for a 3000 km cruise missile
 
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Lancer

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Yes , but between 1963 and 1990 successive governments had maintained defence budget at least 2.5 percent of the GDP . So if there is a will there is a way . This government claims that it's PM is chowkidar , so the least that was expected was increase in defence budget to 2.5 percent of GDP .

Rajiv Gandhi also went on a defense shopping spree during his PM term; and by the time he died, India was on the verge of bankruptcy.

The whole thing about Chowkidar had to do with posture and decision making/political will + cutting out corruption. Which has been done. This Gvt is far more fiscally responsible than most previous Gvt's, and on top of that they have to keep everyone happy because Congress has turned our politics into a "Who can give me the most free shit" Contest - and the moment Modi tried to deviate from all that, and tried to bring reforms - he immediately got hit with suit-boot jibes in his first term, which could have turned into his version of an India Shining moment.

So now economic reforms and progress, as well as key spending areas like defense - are hostage to ensuring that all the poor people (including farmers who whine for loan waivers every couple years) are taken care of - so they don't vote out the Gvt before it gets to implement its various agenda points. COVID would logically cause further budget crunches - though the 2 front situation makes me believe we don't have a choice but to raise spending. And being left with the hot potato that was OROP has likely played a role in budget shortages too, but it had to be done.

Still, compared to previous Gvts, the budget may seem small, but the current Gvt has done well to trim the wastage/inefficiency and has cut out the massive corruption and acquisition scams that used to plague us.


Before the budget is raised, I believe the Army needs to take a long-hard look at its manpower size/manpower centric approach, certain big projects (like the IAC 3 and MMRCA) need to be re-considered/altered, and where possible - we need to learn to make do with locally produced systems/hardware (LCA + MWF instead of a huge MMRCA order, ALH and LUH can meet most helicopter needs, we have plenty of good artillery guns made at home, Arjuns vs importing thousands of Russian tanks etc).

A budget increase should be based on the findings of these reviews/studies - and priority for spending should be on local products where possible, even after an increase.
 
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