India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[Yash Patel]

This is the Google LAC ... (No authenticity)

View attachment 55376

google map’s LAC more or less aligns with Chinese Perception of LAC!

 

[Kumata]

View attachment 55391
Maybe the most interesting image is this, an An-32 lying at Bhuj AFS with half of its left-wing missing. Since Bhuj AFS does not have base/repair depot of An-32, this makes me think this might have been stuck by a missile/MANPAD.
Imagery date - 16th June
Sources of all image - Google Earth.

Nice catch there but dont think its MANPAD / Missile.. .. chances of it coming back after such a good hit are very low....and it cannot be hit on ground... most probably repair.

 

[cereal killer]

I was reading that article.

somebody please elaborate, Sandeep Mukherjee's conclusion "Or should we risk a bloodbath, which may lead to a repeat of 1962?"

my point is, afaik, fate of 1962 could have been different if we could avoid blunders. this is not 1962. we are we equipped (though not on a par with China), well trained, well motivated, well postured/deployed, well allied etc. so what's the chance of a repeat of 1962?

I think, probably it's a beautiful article damned by dhoti shivering conclusion of the writer (Sandeep).

On paper China does appears stronger than India but that being said.. If India puts its entire capability on Chinese front 1962 will be avenged in its entirety. But we know we can't do that as we've to keep a substantial amount of resources to counter Porki Army. That's why our defence posturing has always been defensive on China front. But we are very capable to give them a low threshold beating & I doubt Chinese can take much.

 

[doreamon]

Low Altitude, Lightweight, Surface-launched, Anti Light Armour, Active-guided Missile. The Chinese will be taken by complete surprise as we give them copious dose of our LAL SALAAM.

We have lots of ATGM in service for their light or heavy tanks

 

[Sehwag213]

So what will happen first
1. Restoration of status quo at Finger 4-8
2. Sale of Tik tok

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Agni 2 can strike 3 -4 capital cities of Chinese provinces with relative ease if we strike them from Arunachal. These provinces are Sichuan, Yunan, Shaanxi, Qinghai. All hell will break loose & Hans will be toast.

Do we want to jump to the big guns so fast?? We do have other options.

 

[mist_consecutive]

Nice catch there but dont think its MANPAD / Missile.. .. chances of it coming back after such a good hit are very low....and it cannot be hit on ground... most probably repair.

For commercial aircraft, it is possible since they are aerodynamically stable. In the year 2002, a similar thing happened, our An-32 was stuck by Pakistani MANPADS, which hit its engine, but it was able to successfully return back on one-engine power.

But yeah, in all possibility you might be right. We don't see that much action these days. Giving soldiers guns instead of lathis is a big escalation for our phat babus.

 

[Sanglamorre]

If India was actually preparing to escalate then we would have been stocking up on some urgent infantry weapons or Air Launched PGMs. Almost the only nation with Big War Reserves who will/can sell to us is USA.

This info would have to be disclosed to US Congress & would have also leaked to press

Absence of News of any major immediate emergency weapon purchases like ATGMs, RPGs etc makes me feel that we have given up.

We may not even be contemplating serious Economic action let alone Military action

If US wants to bang China the news of confidential sales would definitely not come into public domain.

Chinese Mil intelligence might know it, but not you or me.

 

[cereal killer]

Do we want to jump to the big guns so fast?? We do have other options.

Yes we do have other options.. Preferably both sides would like to keep escalation on border only. I was just saying Agni 2 & 3 are not totally useless & that we only have Agni 5 to hit Chinese population centres is not right.
We may have prithvi missiles in large numbers so Chinese air bases like Hotan & Ngari can be targeted relentlessly.

 

[Sanglamorre]

So , Babaji wasn't wrong when he said We are at Orange alert after Galwan
Entire DFI community owes apologies to Babaji

There is indeed a thing called orange alert?

 

[mist_consecutive]

So , Babaji wasn't wrong when he said We are at Orange alert after Galwan
Entire DFI community owes apologies to Babaji

Unlikely. Baba is unreliable. It was kind of obvious that we will go on a high-alert.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Yes we do have other options.. Preferably both sides would like to keep escalation on border only. I was just saying Agni 2 & 3 are not totally useless & that we only have Agni 5 to hit Chinese population centres is not right.
We may have prithvi missiles in large numbers so Chinese air bases like Hotan & Ngari can be targeted relentlessly.

I think Shaurya is a good option that no one mentions but could be a suprise??

 

[Spindrift]

 

[BangaliBabu]

I think Shaurya is a good option that no one mentions but could be a suprise??

Considering the cowards they are in the field, their ballistic missile swarms with intent to degrade our wartime capabilities will cost them dearly. The Shaurya's advertised capabilities are dangerously lethal even going by the most lenient terminologies. All the PLA bases in Tibet will be dust by the uncannily accurate strikes (1-10m CEP, 30m in worst-case scenario) of the quasi-ballistic Shauryas'.

 

[BangaliBabu]

It seems that we had a high operational alert (most probably orange) aftermath Galwan incident. We were prepared with an operational readiness platform(ORP) at all forward air bases bordering both Pakistan and China.

Maybe we were expecting escalation, or were ready for escalation?

View attachment 55388
Su-30MKI ready with missiles loaded at the hardened aircraft shelter of Naliya forward airbase, Gujarat. This is the same airbase from which SPYDER SAM shot down PN scan eagle UAV last year during Balakot strikes.
Imagery date - 16th June

View attachment 55391
Maybe the most interesting image is this, an An-32 lying at Bhuj AFS with half of its left-wing missing. Since Bhuj AFS does not have base/repair depot of An-32, this makes me think this might have been stuck by a missile/MANPAD.
Imagery date - 16th June

View attachment 55392
2x Su-30MKIs ready at HAS of Jaiselmer forward airbase, Rajasthan.
Imagery date - 16th June

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3x (more hidden maybe) Mig-21Bison ready at Nal forward airbase, Rajasthan.
Imagery date - 24th June

Maybe the most prepared airbase is the Srinagar air force station, J&K.
View attachment 55395
3x Su-30MKI detachment. Not ORPs. More than 4 Mig-21Bison are ORP at Srinagar. But most interesting tidbit is, Srinagar AFB seems to be on high readiness and hidden the HAS, radars, and SAMs (try to find it! ) under camouflage nets.
It is good to see our armed forces are finally paying attention to digital camouflage.
Date - 30th June

View attachment 55396
Finally, Leh, you can see Heron UAV taking off from runaway. Above it is a Chinook.

View attachment 55397
AH-64 Apache at Leh.

Imagery date - 28th June

Sources of all image - Google Earth.

Srinagar airbase is a ridiculously large airbase!!

 

[Arihant]

I think talks failed yesterday.

 

[mist_consecutive]

Srinagar airbase is a ridiculously large airbase!!

By the size of airbases, Srinagar is actually small!

Try PAF base Masroor (Karachi), it has dual runaway, area of nearly ~10 Srinagar airbases, more than 50 HAS, massive hangers, and facilities. I calculated we will need at least 100 BrahMos to take out that airbase.

 

[Sridhar_TN]

Let's be blunt here. China vs India on the nuke equation is like India vs Pakistan. As of now according to OSINT, China has 104 nuke warhead missiles that can target India. Each warhead will be at least 200kt-300kt, some of them will be as big as 1MT. Against that, again according to OSINT, India has deployed just 10 each of Agni 1, Agni 2 and Agni 3. That is a total of 30 Agnis which can reach various parts of China. Against the most target rich region of eastern China, OSINT says India can only deploy the 20 Agni 2 and Agni 3 missiles. Agni 5 deployment is unknown. IAF fighter aircraft delivery is limited to Tibet which is largely barren and will not cause economic damage to China. Also, the boosted fission warheads on India's Agnis may be 200 kt, though the largest yield tested at Pokharan as you know is 43 kt. In comparison China had a 3 MT nuke test. So the long and short of it is that India will cause major damage to China in the event of a nuke exchange, but India will be decimated with it's largest cities smoldering radioactive ruins.

Yea agree with all your points if we go by OSINT handles. Fact of the matter is , the majority of India’s warheads are pointed at China. You can take my word for it, however much that means. If one honestly believes that India would have only 30 warheads pointed at China, it would be utterly dismal. Our nuclear program changed gears towards Chinese deterrence a long time ago. Which is why India has been systematically going for longer range ICBMs. The PM had indirectly(some would call it bluntly) confirmed that India possesses hydrogen weapons. Whichever way you look at it, nuclear deterrence towards China is not an issue at all. And by all means, the primary targets would be eastern China. Not the western front. There is no point in targetting smaller cities in the xinjiang provinces.
For nuclear deterrence to be achieved, if you’re not able to target the opponents capital, then you don’t have deterrence . Beijing was always a target and will always be. No, it’s not just indian cities that would be burning with radioactive ash, but China as well. At least the China that we know of today. A basic understanding of nuclear warfare should tell you that such an exchange will finish a country or whatever is left of it. There is no survival there. There is no going back.

I am not even going to start on the topics of SLBMa or other platforms. Unless the chinks possess the capability to shoot down all kinds of ICBMs, there is no chance of survival there.

 

[Sanglamorre]

I think talks failed yesterday.

Why would a failure of talks result in actions in Xinjiang and internal internet?

The Xinjiang news is old. China flu has started back up in major cities like Urumqi. Residents are being literally locked in doors with those sealing tapes on their doors. That's what that is.

The WeChat one if true is because way too much flood pictures and discontent is getting out. It likely means floods have worsened quite a bit and they don't want people to know how bad.

 

[johnq]

google map’s LAC more or less aligns with Chinese Perception of LAC!

Chinese have infiltrated most American companies, so looking to their perception of LAC is pointless.
The Indian Army could turn its current positions into permanent well-defended and shielded positions with large underground bases that cannot be destroyed by bombs. That's basically what the Chinese have been doing all along as they incrementally grab more territory year after year. By turning the current positions into permanent hardened bases, the Indian Army can at least stop the Chinese landgrabs from continuing in the future.