India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

Hellfire

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But didn't MEA say disengagement is not complete and Lt. Gen. Y K joshi said that we will restore status quo ?
I don't think govt can backtrack now after seeing satellite pictures.

Sir.

Statements to action, is a long process. Disengagement is not complete, so forward staging of troops will be maintained. This is the point that shall be around for sometime, till it is accepted as a fact. The public memory is quite short. Come 5th August, attention will shift, then Mandir, then the economic numbers will start coming in.....

The issue will be relegated to the background.

Also, please understand that the Military Leadership is tasked with undertaking Political Objectives of the country's leadership by using military means. When they make a statement, it is not their viewpoint or the military's institutional viewpoint, but designed to be a political statement of the leadership in military realm.

This is one aspect which people fail to understand and criticize the Chief over some action or statement. They have no choice. They are bound to follow the directives given to them. Please recollect Adm Vishnu Bhagwat case, where he was sacked for taking a stand, or how Lt Gen R Kadyan was overlooked because Lt Gen Kalkat had to be made an Army Commander on insistence of SAD or how Gen VK Singh was forced out, even in spite of all the evidence proving him right, just so that Gen Bikram could be promoted.

There is not much we can do from their point of view without wrecking the country's economy. Let me be clear - the nation is not ready for war.

The concept of limited war is only applicable to geographical realms. The fact remains that when a nation goes to war, it is not only the forces that have to fight but also the citizens, in form of industrial production, agricultural activities and resources mobilization, to support the war effort.

This is what have been warning against - of expecting a military action over here, when none will be coming. Much to chagrin of people around. And attracting brickbats in the process.

Realism must remain the foundation of discourse. Too many people benefit from economic doles in our nation, too many rely on freebies, which leaves little financial flexibility to mobilize greater resources without wiping them out (sure way to lose elections). Additionally, too many people have relationships with Chinese firms on either side of political spectrum. Need I speak more?
 

Hellfire

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I respectfully disagree because while this strategy is sound from a geopolitical or even commonsense standpoint, It comes with heavy domestic political costs for the ruling dispensation. Ladakh will play heavily in the upcoming Bihar elections, especially with the Galwan clash involving "16 Bihar" (I know it's a diverse unit, but the name is a political hot potato for the BJP). Unless BJP can prove confirmed PLA fatalities that are in the ballpark of the 16 Bihar fatalities, the Galwan skirmish remains "unavenged by Modi" in the eyes of the Bihari voter. If NDA/BJP lose Bihar, UP is guaranteed to slip out of their hands next in 2022.

Basically Modi's response to Galwan will decide whether he ends up a Churchill or Chamberlain. As of now the Indian voter hasn't seen a response. "maarte maarte mare" is just political first-aid, it doesn't count as a "response."

Therefore no military response with visible/undeniable PLA fatalities == guaranteed loss for the BJP in Bihar and UP. Modi cannot save his skin without being irrational and unpredictable to the Chinese.

Sir.

You just need to look around. We have eliminated about 50 of the PLA in the said incident (as far as can be reasonably ascertained, my figure is 47) including those of their who succumbed to grievous injuries who were evacuated as immediate priority in helicopters. The 'cost' has been exacted. And the same - the message that is - has been spread where it matters. The average Indian on road is not bothered anymore. For him/her, it is the next pay cheque, job loss, and of course 'sarkaar kya kar rahi hai humare liye COVID mein".

Balakote had no visible Terrorist losses, Feb 27th had no visible loss of PAF F-16, in spite of the then RM, Ms Sitharaman saying that even the name of the PAF pilot lost is known.
They weathered the doubts quite nicely. (Am merely commenting here, am quite sure of the two incidents and casualties incurred by the enemy) So, the political angle is hardly of consequence. Mandir will take care of that.

Personal Opinion

Most disgusted right now, at the blatant surrender of the territory. But knowing how our Political Leadership thinks and how the bureaucracy feeds them data, other than predict their actions, not much can be done.
 

Assassin 2.0

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Sir.

You just need to look around. We have eliminated about 50 of the PLA in the said incident (as far as can be reasonably ascertained, my figure is 47) including those of their who succumbed to grievous injuries who were evacuated as immediate priority in helicopters. The 'cost' has been exacted. And the same - the message that is - has been spread where it matters. The average Indian on road is not bothered anymore. For him/her, it is the next pay cheque, job loss, and of course 'sarkaar kya kar rahi hai humare liye COVID mein".

Balakote had no visible Terrorist losses, Feb 27th had no visible loss of PAF F-16, in spite of the then RM, Ms Sitharaman saying that even the name of the PAF pilot lost is known.
They weathered the doubts quite nicely. (Am merely commenting here, am quite sure of the two incidents and casualties incurred by the enemy) So, the political angle is hardly of consequence. Mandir will take care of that.

Personal Opinion

Most disgusted right now, at the blatant surrender of the territory. But knowing how our Political Leadership thinks and how the bureaucracy feeds them data, other than predict their actions, not much can be done.
If defence angle was not important then modi for year's wouldn't be milking it be it for Pakistan or China. Removal of article 370A was also a big plus for him balalkot was also a boosted his image as strong leader anyways. Public today cares about money job and all but when public becomes angry or disappointed then to it's a big disaster for the political party and nation.
Congress will not let modi go freely if he ends up giving land to Chinese. Rahul gandhi and gang were already portraying that Modi have lost the war.
In 1962 when nehru lost the war he was broken betrayed and died a death of lost man and in 1962 not only nehru every other person was broken and disturbed.
If modi lost to Chinese then it will not be a free ride for him.
 

Sanglamorre

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If defence angle was not important then modi for year's wouldn't be milking it be it for Pakistan or China. Removal of article 370A was also a big plus for him balalkot was also a boosted his image as strong leader anyways. Public today cares about money job and all but when public becomes angry or disappointed then to it's a big disaster for the political party and nation.
Congress will not let modi go freely if he ends up giving land to Chinese. Rahul gandhi and gang were already portraying that Modi have lost the war.
In 1962 when nehru lost the war he was broken betrayed and died a death of lost man and in 1962 not only nehru every other person was broken and disturbed.
If modi lost to Chinese then it will not be a free ride for him.
"Perception" of defence is important. Look at how people are dancing about app ban as digital strike.

It really doesn't look like it'll go further than that.
 

LurkerBaba

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The recent EAM Mr Jaishanker's statement may be indicative? A move into US camp, here, would mean move into a definitive military alliance.

If you look at things with this aspect in consideration, an Indo-US miliatary alliance, formalized and operationalized, will be a lethal combination for any power today.

The pussyfooting over concretizing the military aspect of the Quad, by itself, is indicative of the hesitancy within Indian Politico-Bureaucratic set up, that I put forth.
That...was really disappointing. Sounded like rehashed NAM with moral lectures to the USA as a bonus

Babus will remain Babus. Or maybe its some 9D chankyan chess that I'm missing out ?

 

Shashank Nayak

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That...was really disappointing. Sounded like rehashed NAM with moral lectures to the USA as a bonus

Babus will remain Babus. Or maybe its some 9D chankyan chess that I'm missing out ?

India is right here.. China is not the Soviet union.. American capitalists are heavily invested in China, and from capital goods to consumer goods, there is a lot of american dependence on China.. Even if India were allied with the US, and there was an Indo China conflict, I really feel that US would use its increased leverage over India, to force India to not escalate the conflict to a point where it severely endangers american investment in China... Let the US first summon the courage and conviction to bear the pain of an economic decoupling with China..Modi with his recent moves on the economic front is atleast showing the world that India and Indians are ready to bear the pain of a substantial Indo-China economic decoupling...
 

Sarjen

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That...was really disappointing. Sounded like rehashed NAM with moral lectures to the USA as a bonus

Babus will remain Babus. Or maybe its some 9D chankyan chess that I'm missing out ?

Did we just Cave ???
 

ezsasa

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That...was really disappointing. Sounded like rehashed NAM with moral lectures to the USA as a bonus

Babus will remain Babus. Or maybe its some 9D chankyan chess that I'm missing out ?

There is a simple explanation for Indian diplomacy to take this route, there can’t be an alliance between unequal powers. Bigger power can and will gobble up an smaller unprepared power.

Until India achieves some sort of parity, this stand is likely to continue in foreseeable future.

Me personally, I don’t think Indian institutions are matured enough to handle the pressures of such a alliance. clue: up until recently two CBI directors were fighting publicly with each other in a turf war. institutional integrity is absent at the moment in India at the highest levels.

obviously this is an nuanced topic, so there would be a lot of contradictions with any argument.
 

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