Indeed. The US won't do jack shit with a presidential transition underway, so if South Block did wargame a scenario where Chinese intervention is accounted for (thanks to Winter); and US intervention (either way) is accounted for, then now is the time to strike PoK.
The next SecDef/SecState will not tolerate an Indian move into PoK under any circumstances. It will be like Russia taking back Crimea (which was once Russian SSR); and American (Obama's) moves to making Russia an economic pariah, all over again.
If we blow this chance, it will be because Modi miscalculated the outcome of the 2020 US Elections, and squandered 2020 by deciding to grow a beard and chant Vasudaiva-Kutum-Bunkum instead.
The moment COVID hit and the US started experiencing a death-toll in the tens of thousands, Modi should have figured out that Trump will lose the elections, and that he should use Trump's remaining term in office to hit PoK.
The only way we'll become a $5 trillion economy within Modi's term is if USD undergoes hyperinflation.
very good insight. That’s what Israelis did. They quickly moved Trump to recognize Jerusalem as capital, get US to mend Israeli relations with Arabs, secure enhanced defense technologies (F35), increased US budgetary support, cia drone kill of Iranian general etc - all within the last 1 year. Mossad accurately predicted Trump’s chances of re-election were small, and their PM moved quickly to seize the opportunity.
This is where we fail time and time again - slow to understand global signs, even slower to engage, very afraid of making risky diplomatic moves, unable to milk our allies, and slow decision making. By the time we make a policy decision suitable for a republican administration, democrats come to power. And now we need to start all over again. Indian babus lack global exposure, sophisticated negotiation skills, execution speed and power play ideas. IFS, IAS all are proving to be outdated ways of selecting for civil service. Major powers simply don’t run diplomacy like we do. Their decision making is streamlined, quick, and decisive. We try to balance all sorts of risks, worry about excess diplomatic pressures (when there really is none), try to act excessively like a role model in the hopes that very good behavior is rewarded - I mean what was the reason to engage in so much diplomacy with CCP after PLA’s transgression. Looks like appointing an IFS technocrat as EAM is backfiring . We have lots of baggage that needs to be shed. We have lots of intelligence and efficiency gaps that need to be filled.