and saying that we should make an emergency buy/lease of 100 plus F16's.
@Tridev123 cross posting from mmrca thread as I think this thread would be more appropriate for this post.
I was one of them.
I think somebody is definitely reading the pattern, but CSG has miscalculated the timing or outcome a bit.
last 3 India-China standoff in 2013, 2017 and 2020. so recently in every 3 or 4 years China is probing India.
2013 gave them some leverage. 2017 was a loss of face for them. this time they should not gain anything.
they are continuously trying to achieve something but are unable too. at the same time they are also not giving up. so there is a chance that they will again come within next 3/4 years or so (or sooner) with better preparation and infra. point to note 75th anniversary of CCP is 4 years away.
now if we go for mmrca, local production will be ready in 2026/2027 (best case scenario). tedbf/orca will be available within 2030. so mmrca route isn't a good choice atm (imo).
if we decide to wait till that time, then I think amca, orca (though AF has rejected it) and mwf will be best choice.
if we don't have that much time to wait, then any world class used jet for next 10/15 years will be best choice and we'd pour the money saved from mmrca contract in amca, tedbf/orca r&d.
114 Rafales will cost some $20/21B or so. 200 used F16 should cost some $3/4 B (assuming). so the full package (consisting of weapons, training, maintenance etc) will definitely come under $10B. it means we will have about $10B for r&d of our own jets.
(probably mmrca cost is pegged at around $18B).
if mmrca goes through, I will also vote for F15 or Rafale.
(or 114 F15 and 36 Rafale.
)
(@mods if this post shouldn't be here, please move it to mmrca thread).