India-China 2020 Border conflict

[Hari Sud]

Why the Corp Commander talks do not make headway is very simple to figure out and that is direction to withdraw have to come from a Peking. A local commander of his own cannot move forward or withdraw. The Indian commander went to the Chusul meet with strength after capturing all the heights in the Chusul range and putting Moldo and Sirijap under Indian gun sights. Now in any hostility these will be the first to be neutralized. That will be great loss of prestige to PLA and politicians in Peking. This stalemate will stay. Off his own, the local Chinese commander can order an assault on heights captured by India in last three weeks. If it does not succeed, which is likely the case, the commander will become a page of history as unsuccessful military leader. The commander knows that he is leading raw recruits as opposed to seasoned soldiers of India they are facing. The recruits are unacclimatized to 15,000 feet to 18,000 feet heights hence are ending up in the hospitals. Hence a smart military commander will not order an assault on newly acquired Indian positions, as long as India could retain them winter.

This is a tricky situation for the Chinese military. Loss of prestige is preventing the politicians and military leaders in Peking to order Status quo of April this year. They will soon do it but not until next summer. They also wish to check whether Indian troops at the heights can stand extreme conditions.

I hope they do withdraw and save some prestige although it is already in the mud with India standing up to them unlike 1962.

 

[DownWithCCP]

Scathing comments from Hellfire:

Wasn't he blaming the intelligence community just the other day?

 

[tarunraju]

Scathing comments from Hellfire:

ITBP only has foot-patrols. You expect ITBP to have satellites and recon with foreknowledge of the Chinese advance in April? That's the military's job.

The Chinese advance was spotted in time, but our government over-relied on Russian assurance that the PLA is only there in Tibet (close to LAC) for "military exercises." And even after the fuckup, government failed to express its displeasure to Russia, and instead ran to Moscow for emergency procurement and mediation.

It's as if we haven't snapped out of our 1980s dependence on Russia as a security wholeseller.

 

[Cactus09]

So basically, while we made some good moves on the heights by Pangong Tso; the Chinese have still successfully changed facts on ground at a few other places (though I imagine we're well positioned to take on a Chinese offensive if it comes). Meaning, on the net, ground has still been lost.

Now we either remove them, or live with it.

Something is going to happen for sure before next meeting. Something as equally important as Black top. Or even more. The scale and intensity of readjustments has to increase if it is about gaining and losing. Make it untenable for Chinks to stay.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

I think they have decided on the deployment of Two divisions in Ladakh as an operational imperative. There is no escape from it.

The indication came from the participation of two Maj Gens as Goc of 3 Inf Div and 39 Mountain Division in the talks. Otherwise, why involve GOC 39 Mountain Division.
Besides those, there are bound to be two more divisions in the Area as also 17 MCC as per earlier Media reports.

You mean five divisions in total including the division of 17 Mountain strike corps..?

 

[DownWithCCP]

ITBP only has foot-patrols. You expect ITBP to have satellites and recon with foreknowledge of the Chinese advance in April? That's the military's job.

The Chinese advance was spotted in time, but our government over-relied on Russian assurance that the PLA is only there in Tibet (close to LAC) for "military exercises."

And even after the fuckup, government failed to express its displeasure to Russia, and instead ran to Moscow for emergency procurement and mediation.

It's as if we haven't snapped out of our 1980s dependence on Russia as a security wholeseller.

But does anyone have a solid source for the "Russian assurance" story apart from Subramanian Swamy who first put it forward? I expect more "re-adjustments" incoming, like someone said earlier, spending time only enables the Chink soldiers to acclimatize and familiarize themselves with the environment.

 

[Lancer]

Wasn't he blaming the intelligence community just the other day?

Not sure, but he's been coming down hard on ITBP, MHA and Shah since this all began.

 

[bajiraopeshwa]

Why the Corp Commander talks do not make headway is very simple to figure out and that is direction to withdraw have to come from a Peking. A local commander of his own cannot move forward or withdraw. The Indian commander went to the Chusul meet with strength after capturing all the heights in the Chusul range and putting Moldo and Sirijap under Indian gun sights. Now in any hostility these will be the first to be neutralized. That will be great loss of prestige to PLA and politicians in Peking. This stalemate will stay. Off his own, the local Chinese commander can order an assault on heights captured by India in last three weeks. If it does not succeed, which is likely the case, the commander will become a page of history as unsuccessful military leader. The commander knows that he is leading raw recruits as opposed to seasoned soldiers of India they are facing. The recruits are unacclimatized to 15,000 feet to 18,000 feet heights hence are ending up in the hospitals. Hence a smart military commander will not order an assault on newly acquired Indian positions, as long as India could retain them winter.

This is a tricky situation for the Chinese military. Loss of prestige is preventing the politicians and military leaders in Peking to order Status quo of April this year. They will soon do it but not until next summer. They also wish to check whether Indian troops at the heights can stand extreme conditions.

I hope they do withdraw and save some prestige although it is already in the mud with India standing up to them unlike 1962.

Their prestige is already in the mud. They came all the way to attack and now if they pretend they are defending it will signal that IA is stronger (nobody defends against a weaker army) and therefore can be a net security provider in Asia.

Also there will be big question marks on their weapons and those who import from China are going to wonder whether their weapons are so inferior that they are not daring to attack. Nobody will believe they came for just occupying some land in the ambiguous zones of LAC. Which major power does this kind of thing, especially for a small amount of such worthless land ?

We gain lots of strategic advantage by putting few divisions - it allows completion of infra, signals strong intent to the world, creates some fear in Pakistan that the deployment could make some rapid moves in POK etc, allows Modi to take strong economic measures against Chinese apps and other imports, motivates us to quickly move forward on QUAD etc. These are huge strategic advantages.

 

[Coalmine]

 

[knathan]

Sir's,
shourya missile (B05 navy) 7.5 mach, altitude 40km, package of peace 200kg to 1800 km range n 1000kg to 750 km.+ shourya is BGM can do 3d path.

is chini have like this lattu?

 

[Synergy]

The gap between china and India is going to increase in lonh term not decrease.

We are also looking at an unarmed pakistani military funded with chinese money too with chinese themselves gaining more experience over time.

The gap between China and India should decrease in long term not increase.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Not sure, but he's been coming down hard on ITBP, MHA and Shah since this all began.

Well ITBP hold the primary responsibility of monitoring and stopping chinese incursions.. It is simply mind boggling that fatso Amit shah has been dead silent about incursions since the very beginning...

 

[Knowitall]

The gap between China and India should decrease in long term not increase.

Alas the same thing was said 15 years ago too that the gap will start decreasing slowly but we know how it turned out.

Looking at the procurement levels and induction speed the gap for the coming years will be increasing not decreasing.

 

[SimplyIndian]

ITBP only has foot-patrols. You expect ITBP to have satellites and recon with foreknowledge of the Chinese advance in April? That's the military's job.

The Chinese advance was spotted in time, but our government over-relied on Russian assurance that the PLA is only there in Tibet (close to LAC) for "military exercises." And even after the fuckup, government failed to express its displeasure to Russia, and instead ran to Moscow for emergency procurement and mediation.

It's as if we haven't snapped out of our 1980s dependence on Russia as a security wholeseller.

Is there a possibility that GOI knows about cheeni build up, but wanted it to happen. Since self reliance can not come without China decoupling, so GOI secretly wanted it to happen, and now we are decoupling slowly at the same time Defense is getting stronger. Now look at resolve of Modi, we are standing strong, called their bluff and making economy independent.

It may be absurd, but atam-nirbhar-Bharat did need this scenario to play out.

Galwan was unfortunate in whole scene, om shanti.

 

[omaebakabaka]

Their prestige is already in the mud. They came all the way to attack and now if they pretend they are defending it will signal that IA is stronger (nobody defends against a weaker army) and therefore can be a net security provider in Asia.

Also there will be big question marks on their weapons and those who import from China are going to wonder whether their weapons are so inferior that they are not daring to attack. Nobody will believe they came for just occupying some land in the ambiguous zones of LAC. Which major power does this kind of thing, especially for a small amount of such worthless land ?

We gain lots of strategic advantage by putting few divisions - it allows completion of infra, signals strong intent to the world, creates some fear in Pakistan that the deployment could make some rapid moves in POK etc, allows Modi to take strong economic measures against Chinese apps and other imports, motivates us to quickly move forward on QUAD etc. These are huge strategic advantages.

Except no land is worthless but rest all right on.

 

[Knowitall]

Scathing comments from Hellfire:

ItBP is a border police they neither have the capability or the tech to keep check at chinese movements.

They can maintain deployments and vigil at a few areas but that's it.

MEA has said that intelligence agencies had warned of chinese movements last may so dont blame the itbp.

 

[Chandragupt Maurya]

Don’t doubt Modi Governments resolve
He did Reply Pakistan after Pulwama terrorist attacks unlike congress who said we are peaceful Gandhiwadi country and Gandhi said if someone slaps on your one cheek present your another cheek to get another slap and this exactly was what Congress Foreign policy looked like vis a vis Pakistan

 

[fire starter]

They are making job of SFF even more easier.

 

[Spindrift]

ITBP only has foot-patrols. You expect ITBP to have satellites and recon with foreknowledge of the Chinese advance in April? That's the military's job.

The Chinese advance was spotted in time, but our government over-relied on Russian assurance that the PLA is only there in Tibet (close to LAC) for "military exercises." And even after the fuckup, government failed to express its displeasure to Russia, and instead ran to Moscow for emergency procurement and mediation.

It's as if we haven't snapped out of our 1980s dependence on Russia as a security wholeseller.

Generally, all such forces have an intelligence wing, divided in two, one is for active surveillance and intelligence gathering and other one is a liaisoning unit that interacts with other intelligence agencies. So I don't think, they would have known about this.

 

[UZI™️]