No change is gonna happen the way we are going at the moment. Voting is always gonna fail until we give them something back or stand up stronger. Still we should try. How is the question.
There are 4 systems seeking to get the permanent seat. Besides India, there is Germany, Brazil and Japan. I think Germans would most likely the seat if they were to be given seat with no application and objection by the other 3 because none in the P5 would object, German will act in alliance with the US/UK/Russia/France and China has enough clout and leverage on them to use them to their own advantage.
What should India do?
The German case for seat in UNSC and the difference between Germany and Franc.
France a permanent and key stakeholder and vocal supporter of
UN reform to better reflect the new world order that has changed significantly since WW2. One of those suggested reform is 'expansion of permanent seats on the UNSC to include the G4 countries (Germany, Brazil, India and Japan)' .
EU vs France for UNSC seat
However,
Germany has been
proposing for France to give up its permanent seat in the UN in favor of a
single vote for EU. German's view is that it will allow the EU block to represent all of Europe as a united voice at international platform. They are trying to unite Europe as one large great power.
Germany argues that if
France truly was committed to the EU, this
spot and the associated veto power should be Europeanised. However, France argues this unified EU seat would be counterproductive, instead they suggest and support an additional seat for Germany.
If France agrees to Germany's recommendation, Germany would automatically have a seat in the UN possibly without objection from P5 or the remaining of G4, their status and clout on globe greatly enhanced, this would leave India in the limbo making appeals for reforms with no results.
I think that both options proposed by German and French are great, the first one slightly better if French and German can work as single entity, they are really gonna be great force of Europe but right now, as the situation is that while
France is the diplomatic power of the EU, Germany is the economic capital of the EU. They are counterbalancing forces. This
Europeanisation would reduce France diplomatic power offsetting this balance of power German hands. French wouldn't want that (past experiences). Germans still secretly dreaming of fulfilling Nazi Dreams of unified Europe that seems to have become more difficult after Brexit, thus losing one added vote for Europe. I would prefer this disunity remains between them, atleast for now.
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Case for India in Germany's idea.
Whether French and German's can align their interest to work together is another matter but the German point of view has much more merit for us if applied in Indian subcontinent. If we make a similar case for Indian subcontinent giving one strong and permanent seat/vote as SAARC (like EU) union, this would greatly enhance our bid for that spot.
And I think this union would also be able to help address the obstacle that we face from Pakistan's anti-India generals. With us getting a seat in the UN as union, Pakistan's interest would be protected in the union and this would also give us leverage to stop their state and non-state actors from infiltrating India launching terror attacks. They should drop their support to jihadism in light of all the economic advantages they would have as a permanent members. It's a chance to solve some our issues and stupid conflicts without any casualities. And with all the SAARC members combined, India's position too will be enhanced on world stage. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka would most likely support our proposal and I think Pakistan, hopefully, (both the generals, politicians and civillians alike) would be able too see merit in this. It's time to support each other for collective progress and move from being regional power towards Global leadership.
More benefits to us. Subcontinent will have more authority if we make a case for our people as Union rather than just for India alone
. We will have some veto power (when alone) but we will still have conflicts and losses with unnecessary challenges to our economy and security. The vote of union would build trust among all in the region and could prevent conflicts indefinitely while reaping great economic rewards and upliftment in ordinary civilians lives. We must consider this option, the soonest the best. Let's make a seat for Union of SAARC rather than Indias. China too wouldn't be able to oppose this union with ease.