India is not going to produce anything close to W88 and it's "prolate pit" without testing. Sophisticated thermonuclear weapons are order of magnitude harder to get right than conventional fission weapons, and something like W88 is even harder to do... to public knowledge only China and US have thermonuclear weapons with prolate pit's. Though PRC weapon (DF-31 RV) is probably closer to W87 since it's pit (Pu or HEU? not known) is rumored to be squeezed with insensitive high explosives (IHE).
You are ripping these estimations about Indian weapons out of your "rear area", if we look Indian tests there is no evidence what would suggests something like W88.
Lol, right. Do you think the Indian nuclear physicists are all duds? Yes, we don't have all of them "ready" to "deploy". India will definitely test again. We have W88 designs "ready to go" on the missiles in canisters. Please do look at the Shati Thermonuclear test device images which are open source. They are very w88 like in dimensions: length and diameter. There are at least 12 further thermonuclear device designs which have been ready since the 1998 tests. The 1998 test was a W88 like design. Which is why it is was a so called "fizzle". And the whole "fizzle" debate is always around the corner even in India whenever India is under pressure to "accede" to a four letter treaty. The Nobel loving politicians require a counter balance and every time we get near one, you will hear the old "it's a fizzle theory." The device tested in 1998 by accounts published in peer reviewed military journals in India, indicate they were sophisticated dial able three stage thermonuclear devices. India has always wanted this. You can read the pre 1998 publications on how the BARC went about achieving this. They separated tritium which is a key element decades ago from reactor waste as opposed to the more expensive route used by the americans. The fast breeder reactors that India runs are the second key to the compact warheads. The "reprocessed" fuel from these reactors will give India the ability to produce fissile material of extremely high purity. The problem here lies with the fuel mixture obtained.
I am NOT suggesting by the terms, "ready to go" and "ready" to "deploy" that "all" missiles in India will be W88. Nope we don't have the statistical confidence from the tests to do so. The current, missiles and their payloads and information in public domain indicate, missile which will pop their fuses at 12KT yield levels and also missiles which will pop their fuses at presumably higher altitudes, with larger throw weight. There are equally interesting missiles which have a slightly lower payload and are lighter.
So, to account for doubting toms like you and due to the current requirements of not testing, India is doing the following: (i) deploying a mix of w88 tipped missiles with MIRV; (ii) less sophisticated boosted fission warheads and less sophisticated "thermonuclear" warheads; and (iii) stockpiling fissile materials which if not used in w88 like warheads will build just over 1000 thermonuclear weapons.
You can take the numbers I ran based on western estimates of the enrichment plant and size and the centrifuge designs the Indians currently use to arrive at those numbers. So you can either believe that India is insane and by 2020 will have 1000 thermonuclear weapons which are fission boosted fission or approximately a 100 to 200 W88 generation designs. The choice is yours. Your talk about my "rear end" will not change those numbers. Pakistan and China are expanding their arsenals. We might sit on our "rear end" like you imagine or the "western reports" on the enrichment plants might show where India is going. As for the numbers, posted they are based on your "western"
underestimates of Indian fissile material production.
India, has never followed a military policy of getting fewer weapons. All Indian acquisitions are massive. Point in case, the stalled and restarted and stalled again by the day Javalin. The US wasn't sure why the Indians wanted 8800 of those to start with. It didn't make sense to even the Americans.
As to "how" India will get to 100 or 200 W88 warheads. There will be further tests to "move" towards a reduced missile "presence" in a decade or two, where the 12KT and less sophisticated thermonukes and boosted fission warheads will be done away with leaving only the W88 like warheads. When the MIRV's are revealed, the west will suggest inevitably that India does not have the warheads. So unveiling the MIRV will "require" a nuclear test. India isn't ready to come out yet. So take your head out of your "rear end" pay heed to your country man, "Hans Rosling". It's an equation of economics. When it is no longer possible for countries to ignore India economically, Buddha will smile again. Everyone knows this. The reverse is also true, if there is an escalation of friction between India and China, Buddha will smile again.
The Indo-US nuclear deal was a deal meant to be broken later in time. India is the largest importer of US arms. Why do you think that is? Wake up and smell Asia getting back up there. That means India too. Either we have thermonukes of the same class of China or we become Asia's Canada. There are enough sensible people in the right places in India to see where this is going. There are also enough argumentative Indians who oppose this in the right place to keep things simmering and balanced.
Please look at where all the R&D money on Indian defense has gone into. Everything and literally the kitchen sink has been towards: (i) missiles of all sizes and shapes; (ii) submarines; (iii) nukes (iv) aerospace and (v) naval assets. Things are so lopsided in this equation, India cannot manufacture its own infantry guns(I know there is the INSAS but the military is buying something else too); is just now ready to test it's artillery guns after three decades; and it imports a large array of things which a missile wielding state should produce. The priorities and execution of the programs, with decade long delays is what everyone sees, but the grand design behind all of this and the single minded dedication with which these goals have been followed by every single government India has had shows how serious India is about these weapons of the high table.
I don't expect you to pull your head out of the rear end, because these are backed by numbers which you haven't challenged. So mate stop using the term "rear end" cos your head is in there!