Estimation of Indian Nuclear Arsenal.- Present and Future

[spikey360]

If US has not objected to the Chilikare developments, then it is alright with them. Otherwise they will raise a huge hue and cry over any nuclear developments in India.

‘’Same way, Pakistan has been kept away. That means that their friends in US are paying no attention to their objections.

Even if it is not alright with them, what leverage do you think they'll have on Bharat if they couldn't stop NoKo from obtaining the bomb.

 

[Freedom Thru Firepower]

India nukes should be in the range of 2k-3k as the economy grows by 2030, considering hostile behaviour (which will only increase with each day passing) by westoids. What do y'all nibbers say

 

[spikey360]

India nukes should be in the range of 2k-3k as the economy grows by 2030, considering hostile behaviour (which will only increase with each day passing) by westoids. What do y'all nibbers say

Agree. But there's a caveat.
Larger arsenals do not actually deter anymore than reliable delivery systems do. The more reliable and deathproof our delivery systems are, the more feared and respected we will be.

 

[BON PLAN]

India nukes should be in the range of 2k-3k as the economy grows by 2030, considering hostile behaviour (which will only increase with each day passing) by westoids. What do y'all nibbers say

2000 nukes? Far what purpose? To scratch China and Pak 10 times ?
50 nukes on Pak and 150 on the main cities of China and these 2 country are back in the middle age.

 

[Blademaster]

2000 nukes? Far what purpose? To scratch China and Pak 10 times ?
50 nukes on Pak and 150 on the main cities of China and these 2 country are back in the middle age.

Nope. It is not enough. You need 2000 nukes.

 

[spikey360]

Nope. It is not enough. You need 2000 nukes.

Although I like the number I am skeptical that we are resourceful enough to amass 2000 warheads.

 

[SwordOfDarkness]

Nope. It is not enough. You need 2000 nukes.

Why? IMO 200 is lowballing it, but more than ~500 is just dick measuring contest. 300-500 warheads on a country, assuming 70% rate of intercept, leaves 100-160 nukes hitting a country. More than enough to destroy said country forever.

Our arsenal is designed for second strike, not tactical use (which doesnt work anyway), and as such the destruction of your nation in perpetuity is a good enough deterence.

 

[Blademaster]

Why? IMO 200 is lowballing it, but more than ~500 is just dick measuring contest. 300-500 warheads on a country, assuming 70% rate of intercept, leaves 100-160 nukes hitting a country. More than enough to destroy said country forever.

Our arsenal is designed for second strike, not tactical use (which doesnt work anyway), and as such the destruction of your nation in perpetuity is a good enough deterence.

You have to account for dud rate which is 1/3 of the nukes and middle defenses. Also China has more than 400 cities and the blast area is only good for a five mile radius. You need to take out military facilities as well. There were studies that showed that 7k nukes were not enough to take out America whole. They actually needed about 25k nukes just to take out US.

 

[spacemarine2023]

2000 nukes? Far what purpose? To scratch China and Pak 10 times ?
50 nukes on Pak and 150 on the main cities of China and these 2 country are back in the middle age.

You must be naive to think 150 nukes are enough for China, also why do you think china is only one bothering India there is CIA interference going on in India from 50s, resulting in hundreds of killings of our patriots scientists, politicians and no CIA aka US deep state is not stopping they propped up porkistan with the same support as chinese and now finding new ways to meddle.

2000 nukes are the number India can easily reach but to ensure we have deterrence and MAD with china and USA. India needs at least a 1000 nukes(none tactical) I suppose India is already has more than double the nukes published(150 kt to 600 kt warheads).
Nuke Testing is required but even if its not done India will keep on deploying new designs with the simulated data we have from our friend…

 

[spikey360]

You must be naive to think 150 nukes are enough for China, also why do you think china is only one bothering India there is CIA interference going on in India from 50s, resulting in hundreds of killings of our patriots scientists, politicians and no CIA aka US deep state is not stopping they propped up porkistan with the same support as chinese and now finding new ways to meddle.

2000 nukes are the number India can easily reach but to ensure we have deterrence and MAD with china and USA. India needs at least a 1000 nukes(none tactical) I suppose India is already has more than double the nukes published(150 kt to 600 kt warheads).
Nuke Testing is required but even if its not done India will keep on deploying new designs with the simulated data we have from our friend…

I like and totally support the concept that MAD with the US should be our ultimate goal.
However, to achieve that, the delivery systems need to be deathproof. China has already built networked silos. What have we done?

 

[spacemarine2023]

I like and totally support the concept that MAD with the US should be our ultimate goal.
However, to achieve that, the delivery systems need to be deathproof. China has already built networked silos. What have we done?

India has silos of MRBM, ICBM is not much of a stretch but I think India is more focused on SSBNs based MIRVed ICBMs first as they are more survivable.
There are plans to have 6 SSBNs with in a decade and new class of SSBN after 2035.
Every SSBM after Arihant will increasing bigger.

 

[spikey360]

India has silos of MRBM, ICBM is not much of a stretch but I think India is more focused on SSBNs based MIRVed ICBMs first as they are more survivable.
There are plans to have 6 SSBNs with in a decade and new class of SSBN after 2035.
Every SSBM after Arihant will increasing bigger.

Any source to support this silo claim?

 

[no smoking]

‘With your logic; all Chinese and Pakistani nuclear developments are useless because these have not been tested to show the world that works.

For China, they already run their first full scale test in 1967, the whole word detected it, including India:

From the Archives, June 28, 1973 | China explodes H. bomb: India detects test - The Hindu

 

[spikey360]

CABINET COMMITTEE ON SECURITY REVIEWS PROGRESS IN OPERATIONALIZING INDIA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE
4th January, 2003

https://archive.pib.gov.in/archive/releases98/lyr2003/rjan2003/04012003/r040120033.html

1. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) met today to review the progress in operationalizing of India’s nuclear doctrine. The Committee decided that the following information, regarding the nuclear doctrine and operational arrangements governing India’s nuclear assets, should be shared with the public.

2. India’s nuclear doctrine can be summarized as follows:

i. Building and maintaining a credible minimum deterrent;
ii. A posture of "No First Use" nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere;
iii. Nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage.
iv. Nuclear retaliatory attacks can only be authorised by the civilian political leadership through the Nuclear Command Authority.
v. Non-use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states;
vi. However, in the event of a major attack against India, or Indian forces anywhere, by biological or chemical weapons, India will retain the option of retaliating with nuclear weapons;
vii. A continuance of strict controls on export of nuclear and missile related materials and technologies, participation in the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty negotiations, and continued observance of the moratorium on nuclear tests.
viii. Continued commitment to the goal of a nuclear weapon free world, through global, verifiable and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament.
3. The Nuclear Command Authority comprises a Political Council and an Executive Council. The Political Council is chaired by the Prime Minister. It is the sole body which can authorize the use of nuclear weapons.

4 The Executive Council is chaired by the National Security Advisor. It provides inputs for decision making by the Nuclear Command Authority and executes the directives given to it by the Political Council.

5. The CCS reviewed the existing command and control structures, the state of readiness, the targetting strategy for a retaliatory attack, and operating procedures for various stages of alert and launch. The Committee expressed satisfaction with the overall preparedness. The CCS approved the appointment of a Commander-in-Chief, Strategic Forces Command, to manage and administer all Strategic Forces.

6. The CCS also reviewed and approved the arrangements for alternate chains of command for retaliatory nuclear strikes in all eventualities.

 

[spikey360]

Guys, anyone wants to shed light on the "alternate chains of command" mentioned on our nuclear doctrine?

Furthermore the doctrine says that the Political council of the Nuclear Command Authority is the sole authority for nuclear weapons.
What if - council agrees to nuke, PM disagrees. What happens? Does the chairman have Veto power in this council?

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Thread cleansed.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

India has more nuclear weapons than Pakistan, China ups arsenal: Report
China has increased its nuclear arsenal from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, as per a report by a Swedish think-tank.

The Prithvi surface-to-surface missile is launched during a test at Chandipur in the Indian state of Orissa (AFP)
In Short

• India has 172 'stored' nuclear warheads as per January 2024, says report
• 9 nations continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals
• China kept some warheads on high operational alert for first time

India has more nuclear weapons than Pakistan, while China has increased its nuclear arsenal from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, as per a report by a Swedish think-tank.

With the world witnessing two wars in the past two years, an analysis by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) found that nine nuclear-armed nations, including India, Pakistan and China, continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals.

The other nations mentioned in the report are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, North Korea and Israel.

The report said Russia and the US account for 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons and several countries deployed new nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023.

Around 2,100 nuclear warheads, mostly belonging to the US and Russia, were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. The report said China also likely kept some warheads on high operational alert for the first time.

INDIA HAS 172 NUCLEAR WARHEADS

The SIPRI report said India has 172 "stored" nuclear warheads as per January 2024, two more than Pakistan. The report claimed India marginally expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2023. Both countries continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery systems in 2023.

"While Pakistan remains the main focus of India's nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets throughout China," the report said.

The Swedish think-tank also said India, Pakistan and North Korea were following in the footsteps of Russia and the US to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles.

On China, Hans Kristensen of SIPRI said it was expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country.

"But in nearly all the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces," PTI quoted Kristensen as saying.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

India, China may have begun ‘mating’ nuclear weapons, says think-tank