Estimation of Indian Nuclear Arsenal.- Present and Future

[BON PLAN]

Boosted Fission ??

We don't have H-bomb??

Boosted Fission is the last step before H bomb...

 

[Blademaster]

Only if the accuracy of your warheads is not good enough.
Today all the newest west nuc warheads are under the 300kt yield, and generaly around 100 - 150.

Hence H-bombs are not really needed. Boosted fission bombs are enough to achieve that yield. Besides anything more than that is just a waste of energy because half of that energy is going up and back to space not sideways.

 

[Love Charger]

Boosted Fission is the last step before H bomb...

We should have bomb like these.
They have a bigger boom boom.
And they are thermonuclear

 

[no smoking]

Hence H-bombs are not really needed. Boosted fission bombs are enough to achieve that yield.

No, boosted fission bombs are still based on a fission reaction which requires a lot of fission material. So you have 2 problems:
1. The fission bomb can't be made very small if you want a >100k yield bomb.
2. The fission material is much more expensive than fusion material.

That is why UK and Soviet gave it up quickly.

 

[BON PLAN]

No, boosted fission bombs are still based on a fission reaction which requires a lot of fission material. So you have 2 problems:
1. The fission bomb can't be made very small if you want a >100k yield bomb.
2. The fission material is much more expensive than fusion material.

That is why UK and Soviet gave it up quickly.

The H bomb developpment in France was not an easy walk.
We gain nearly 6 months in the dev phase thanks to some good advices given by a english scientist (the french made some question and the english answerd by 'Yes' or 'No'. So with a few question we knew what was a good way to use the A bomb for ignite the H stage).

 

[BON PLAN]

We should have bomb like these.
They have a bigger boom boom.
And they are thermonuclear

It's a costly way to built a >1Mt bomb (costly in Ur or Pu fissil material)

 

[no smoking]

Boosted Fission is the last step before H bomb...

No, that is a wrong way to go as it is only working as a poor's h-bomb.

As French scientists described, Quote:

"Initially, we followed the same reasoning as those who preceded us in atomic research*the Americans, the Russians, the British and the Chinese: since a fission charge produces a temperature on the order of several tens of million degrees Kelvin, which is sufficient to initiate fusion reaction, we could place a light element and a heavy element side-by-side, make the heavy element go super-critical, and then observe the result. At the time, we did not think at all of separating fission and fusion in two different stages.
In our designs in which Li6D was closely fitted to a fissile core, the heating was too rapid and the resulting efficiency was very low."

THE REAL STORY BEHIND THE MAKING OF THE FRENCH HYDROGEN BOMB (tandfonline.com)

 

[Tshering22]

Quite an enriching discussion regarding Indian Nuclear Weapon Program.

My view is that in a scene where global order is not as strong as it were during 90s era, and India is placed in much better position economically & militarily , so we can afford a couple of more tests to refine our thermonuclear capabilities. Some points worth to be noted w.r.t India's thermonuclear bombs.

1. Even though we claim that we achieved success in triggering pure thermo-nuclear device (specifically Teller-Ulham design/not Fusion boosted) at Pokhran II in the very first attempt, the history of testing in case of countries other than the U.S (exempted due to its pioneer role) suggests that it took multiple attempts to reach and confirm the thermo-nuclear capability, even the North Korea made 2-3 attempts before getting it right. In light of that, may be the claims made are true or vaguely true, it doesn't harm to test a little more to refine the weaponized design.

2. Our nuclear weapon program was originally targeted towards China in late 60s & 70s and the China has conducted many more test (around 50 or so) to refine its weapon program. Therefore, to match them we must have thermo-nuclear warheads of yield 0.5-1 MT for credible deterrence.
Since Pakistan also came into picture with its own nuclear program, to counter them implosion type fission bombs could provide enough deterrence. But we should not loose sight of China with achieving superiority over Pakistan. Our long term aim should be achieving parity w.r.t China in terms of nuclear arsenal & delivery system.

3. Skepticism related to low yield of an alleged thermo-nuclear device is not unreasonable as the historic precedence of nuclear testing suggests that a true thermo-nuclear device was designed to give yields more than 1 MT. And this also makes sense; Hydrogen bomb has to deliver more destruction as a true WMD given the fission based devices were later developed for tactical use. Even the minimum yield of pure fusion weapon in the US arsenal is around 250-500 kT (W-55).

List of All U.S. Nuclear Weapons

A good perspective regarding Indian Thermo-nuclear program is presented in this article. It emphasized the importance of achieving high specific yield (kT/kg) and compact weapon compatible with available delivery system.

Does India Need Thermonuclear Weapons | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

While thermonuclear weapons are not necessary for maintaining a credible deterrent, they serve the purpose of enabling India to make effective use of its relatively limited fissile material stockpile.

idsa.in

This article indicates that Indian nuclear arsenal are fusion boosted Fission device not the typical Teller-Ulam H-bomb.

View attachment 50245

There was a buzz around this picture in which Kim Jong was photographed along with prototype H-bomb. This particular picture received numerous western commentary highlighting the similarity of encasing (dumb-bell shaped) to the true H-bomb. Interestingly, the 2017 test has speculated yield from 70-110 kT which revised up wards to 250 kT based on visual evidences. Perhaps, their persistent efforts have lead to development & miniaturization of H-bomb.

Japan and the any US administration would suspend all dual tech cooperation with us. We haven’t reached a point yet where we have all the tech we need.

Instead, we need to have a parallel on more unconventional capabilities. Like biological weapons which can be disseminated quickly without much public notice. COVID was a sort of tactical low intensity biological warfare and look how devastating it proved to be. It shut down the entire planet which even the nukes couldn’t.

Future wars would be based not in real destruction but managing to operate between conventions and WMD capabilities.

Nuclear is too visible at this stage and PM Modi ji won’t do it until one of his successors do it after 2030 or something.

We also need to find an arid place to do it. Exploding a megaton range nuclear devise in Thar would have catastrophic as the radiation from something that big would move towards our agricultural and population areas. Not forget Pakistan who would panic the hell out assuming we’re nuking them and get world support.

Perhaps in the 2030s.

 

[Vamsi]

We also need to find an arid place to do it. Exploding a megaton range nuclear devise in Thar would have catastrophic as the radiation from something that big would move towards our agricultural and population areas. Not forget Pakistan who would panic the hell out assuming we’re nuking them and get world support.

Perhaps in the 2030s.

test it near the southern Indian ocean

 

[BON PLAN]

No, that is a wrong way to go as it is only working as a poor's h-bomb.

It is a stop gap solution.
Best than a A bomb, worst than a H bomb.

 

[Hari Sud]

Eight years back, the media reported that India is building a brand new nuclear centrifuges at Chillkare in northern Karnataka. This facility was expected to create nuclear fuel for submarines and other nuclear power generation plant.

It will also create a Hydrogen bomb with excess Uranium produced.

Nothing has been heard of this place in last 5 years. It is known to be super secret project. It is allowed to be built as per India-US nuclear deal of 2008 to produce Uranium for all civilian nuclear power plants as well as for submarines.

Anybody has any idea of this place.

 

[karn]

Eight years back, the media reported that India is building a brand new nuclear centrifuges at Chillkare in northern Karnataka. This facility was expected to create nuclear fuel for submarines and other nuclear power generation plant.

It will also create a Hydrogen bomb with excess Uranium produced.

Nothing has been heard of this place in last 5 years. It is known to be super secret project. It is allowed to be built as per India-US nuclear deal of 2008 to produce Uranium for all civilian nuclear power plants as well as for submarines.

Anybody has any idea of this place.

Media only reported that cause someone (forget who) published satellite images . There was nothing official .. why do you think there will be an update .

 

[Azaad]

Meanwhile for a person of Chinese origin from Taiwan , Asianometry comes up with a wonderful highly informative documentary on the trajectory of India's early N program & NWP.

 

[spikey360]

Eight years back, the media reported that India is building a brand new nuclear centrifuges at Chillkare in northern Karnataka. This facility was expected to create nuclear fuel for submarines and other nuclear power generation plant.

It will also create a Hydrogen bomb with excess Uranium produced.

Nothing has been heard of this place in last 5 years. It is known to be super secret project. It is allowed to be built as per India-US nuclear deal of 2008 to produce Uranium for all civilian nuclear power plants as well as for submarines.

Anybody has any idea of this place.

Work ongoing. As per scarce reports available online, all population cleared, fences built. After that, complete dark. No more news trickles through.

But it is a matter of fact that India was at the time 5-6 years ago, looking for a nuclear CnC center.

 

[Hari Sud]

Work ongoing. As per scarce reports available online, all population cleared, fences built. After that, complete dark. No more news trickles through.

But it is a matter of fact that India was at the time 5-6 years ago, looking for a nuclear CnC center.

‘What ever you said was in the media in 2017. What happened after that. NASA photos from air show structures and buildings completed. What is inside the buildings. No news inside the buildings. If it is a Hydrogen bomb being constructed, then good news for India’s security.

 

[Hari Sud]

If US has not objected to the Chilikare developments, then it is alright with them. Otherwise they will raise a huge hue and cry over any nuclear developments in India.

‘’Same way, Pakistan has been kept away. That means that their friends in US are paying no attention to their objections.

 

[spikey360]

‘What ever you said was in the media in 2017. What happened after that. NASA photos from air show structures and buildings completed. What is inside the buildings. No news inside the buildings. If it is a Hydrogen bomb being constructed, then good news for India’s security.

A foolproof testing of a thermonuclear bomb has to be done, sometime in the future. Without this, the dream of Surya ICBM (Agni 6) is incomplete.

 

[spacemarine2023]

I remember during Agni 3 tests there was article/leak that Agni 3 has ability to carry 600 KT warhead to 3000 kms..
That was 15 years ago or so..
I think India definitely fields H Bombs ..

and for latest K series MIRV India will be having 300 KT MIRVs

 

[Hari Sud]

A foolproof testing of a thermonuclear bomb has to be done, sometime in the future. Without this, the dream of Surya ICBM (Agni 6) is incomplete.

‘With your logic; all Chinese and Pakistani nuclear developments are useless because these have not been tested to show the world that works.

 

[spikey360]

‘With your logic; all Chinese and Pakistani nuclear developments are useless because these have not been tested to show the world that works.

This isn't my logic. Neither does it mean it won't work.