Estimation of Indian Nuclear Arsenal.- Present and Future

piKacHHu

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Quite an enriching discussion regarding Indian Nuclear Weapon Program.

My view is that in a scene where global order is not as strong as it were during 90s era, and India is placed in much better position economically & militarily , so we can afford a couple of more tests to refine our thermonuclear capabilities. Some points worth to be noted w.r.t India's thermonuclear bombs.

1. Even though we claim that we achieved success in triggering pure thermo-nuclear device (specifically Teller-Ulham design/not Fusion boosted) at Pokhran II in the very first attempt, the history of testing in case of countries other than the U.S (exempted due to its pioneer role) suggests that it took multiple attempts to reach and confirm the thermo-nuclear capability, even the North Korea made 2-3 attempts before getting it right. In light of that, may be the claims made are true or vaguely true, it doesn't harm to test a little more to refine the weaponized design.

2. Our nuclear weapon program was originally targeted towards China in late 60s & 70s and the China has conducted many more test (around 50 or so) to refine its weapon program. Therefore, to match them we must have thermo-nuclear warheads of yield 0.5-1 MT for credible deterrence.
Since Pakistan also came into picture with its own nuclear program, to counter them implosion type fission bombs could provide enough deterrence. But we should not loose sight of China with achieving superiority over Pakistan. Our long term aim should be achieving parity w.r.t China in terms of nuclear arsenal & delivery system.

3. Skepticism related to low yield of an alleged thermo-nuclear device is not unreasonable as the historic precedence of nuclear testing suggests that a true thermo-nuclear device was designed to give yields more than 1 MT. And this also makes sense; Hydrogen bomb has to deliver more destruction as a true WMD given the fission based devices were later developed for tactical use. Even the minimum yield of pure fusion weapon in the US arsenal is around 250-500 kT (W-55).


A good perspective regarding Indian Thermo-nuclear program is presented in this article. It emphasized the importance of achieving high specific yield (kT/kg) and compact weapon compatible with available delivery system.


A possible confirmation of India deploying the fusion-boosted-fission weapons might be found in the following sentence written by Admiral Arun Prakash in 2009 (at the height of the controversy generated by Santhanam’s statements questioning the success of the 1998 thermonuclear test):15

“In the midst of the current brouhaha, we need to retain clarity on one issue; given that deuterium tritium boosted-fission weapons can generate yields of 200-500 kt, the credibility of India’s nuclear deterrent is not in the slightest doubt.”

An even more potentially revealing comment was made in 2011 by Dr. Avinash Chander to the Business Standard. He said:16

Now we talk of [accuracy of] a few hundred metres. That allows a smaller warhead, perhaps 150-250 kilotons, to cause substantial damage.”

To discount these statements – one by a former Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee and the other by a former Director-General of DRDO – would be folly, to say the least. To these must be added Kakodkar’s consistent assertions that India can field weapons up to a yield of 200 kilotons.17 It should be noted that even a prominent sceptic like Dr. Bharat Karnad acknowledges that India’s boosted-fission capability is significantly more reliable than its thermonuclear capability
This article indicates that Indian nuclear arsenal are fusion boosted Fission device not the typical Teller-Ulam H-bomb.

gettyimages-842003638_wide-11c84a7189b169c496053234219a4d24bc6f040e.jpg


There was a buzz around this picture in which Kim Jong was photographed along with prototype H-bomb. This particular picture received numerous western commentary highlighting the similarity of encasing (dumb-bell shaped) to the true H-bomb. Interestingly, the 2017 test has speculated yield from 70-110 kT which revised up wards to 250 kT based on visual evidences. Perhaps, their persistent efforts have lead to development & miniaturization of H-bomb.
 

HawkisRight

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Who said India is conducting tests?
Stimulation test? Yes, everyone is doing it. Even an university student can do it but without any value.



Yes, Americans made the accusation without OFFERING PROOF but circumstantial evidence.
Ok point taken but u need to understand there are consequences for doing test..we may officially conduct test after muricans pull out of ctbt but not now.. look isrealis don't conduct those tests even being under American protection
 
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I always like the way that you end the discussion when you run out of argument. Good work.
Well, you aren't very good with interpretations. And still repeated attempts to look smart are making you look like a ..
Where can you get reliable parameters? The answer is still: real tests. It is just like find the trend in a chart.
You do one test, you find a point in the chart; you do two, you can built a line; you do three, you may find a V in your chart; but you do more and more, you will find a complex curve in your chart. The more real tests you do, the more reliable the parameters will be.
You essentially asked me about "quality of simulation" where I stated has to include parameters.
With increased study of reactors and lab & sub critical tests, parameters involved in simulation too improve.
So, your response with "still real tests" without any real argument is of no use at all.
 

likitadisa

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India surprised the world in 1974 with a nuclear test which was called as a test for peaceful purposes. The west cried foul as it's claimed that India used plutonium from the Cirus reactor which was supplied by Canada for peaceful purpose. The Cirus reactor had the capability of producing about 10 kgs of weapons grade plutonium enough to make 2 nuclear bombs based on the technical capability of India at that time. This reactor was operational since 1960 and the plutonium separation was done at Trombay. However all this plutonium was restricted in use as per agreement with Canada about not diverting it for military application.
 

likitadisa

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India surprised the world in 1974 with a nuclear test which was called as a test for peaceful purposes. The west cried foul as it's claimed that India used plutonium from the Cirus reactor which was supplied by Canada for peaceful purpose. The Cirus reactor had the Kodi nox capability of producing about 10 kgs of weapons grade plutonium enough to make 2 nuclear bombs based on the technical capability of India at that time. This reactor was operational since 1960 and the plutonium separation was done at Trombay. However all this plutonium was restricted in use as per agreement with Canada about not diverting it for military application.
However all this plutonium was restricted in use as per agreement with Canada about not diverting it for military application.
 

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